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Motivation: Microarray gene expression data are increasingly employed to identify sets of marker genes that accurately predict disease development and outcome in cancer. Many computational approaches have been proposed to construct such predictors. However, there is, as yet, no objective way to evaluate whether a new approach truly improves on the current state of the art. In addition no 'standard' computational approach has emerged which enables robust outcome prediction. Results: An important contribution of this work is the description of a principled training and validation protocol, which allows objective evaluation of the complete methodology for constructing a predictor. We review the possible choices of computational approaches, with specific emphasis on predictor choice and reporter selection strategies. Employing this training-validation protocol, we evaluated different reporter selection strategies and predictors on six gene expression datasets of varying degrees of difficulty. We demonstrate that simple reporter selection strategies (forward filtering and shrunken centroids) work surprisingly well and outperform partial least squares in four of the six datasets. Similarly, simple predictors, such as the nearest mean classifier, outperform more complex classifiers. Our training-validation protocol provides a robust methodology to evaluate the performance of new computational approaches and to objectively compare outcome predictions on different datasets. Contact: l.f.a.wessels@ewi.tudelft.nl Supplementary information: http://ict.ewi.tudelft.nl/index.php?option=com_pub&task=view&id=1983

Motivation: There is a very large and growing level of effort toward improving the platforms, experiment designs, and data analysis methods for microarray expression profiling. Along with a growing richness in the approaches there is a growing confusion among most scientists as to how to make objective comparisons and choices between them for different applications. There is a need for a standard framework for the microarray community to compare and improve analytical and statistical methods. Results: We report on a microarray data set comprising 204 in-situ synthesized oligonucleotide arrays, each hybridized with two-color cDNA samples derived from 20 different human tissues and cell lines. Design of the ∼ 24 000 60mer oligonucleotides that report ∼2500 known genes on the arrays, and design of the hybridization experiments, were carried out in a way that supports the performance assessment of alternative data processing approaches and of alternative experiment and array designs. We also propose standard figures of merit for success in detecting individual differential expression changes or expression levels, and for detecting similarities and differences in expression patterns across genes and experiments. We expect this data set and the proposed figures of merit will provide a standard framework for much of the microarray community to compare and improve many analytical and statistical methods relevant to microarray data analysis, including image processing, normalization, error modeling, combining of multiple reporters per gene, use of replicate experiments, and sample referencing schemes in measurements based on expression change. Availability/Supplementary information: Expression data and supplementary information are available at http://www.rii.com/publications/2003/HE_SDS.htm Contact: yudong_he@merck.com * To whom correspondence should be addressed. † A wholly owned subsidiary of Merck & Co., Inc.