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Responses of hoverflies (Diptera: Syrphidae) to climate change remain mostly unexplored. Here, for the first time, we investigate the impact of climate change on both presence/absence and abundances of hoverfly species. We used generalized linear models to analyse the relationships of climatic and soil variables with the occurrence and abundance of Cheilosia species on the Balkan Peninsula. Our results show that the ranges of all and the abundances of many species are projected to decrease in the future. Climatically suitable conditions for mountainous species are predicted to generally shift northwards. Species adapted to high mountains are projected to almost vanish from the Balkans and only regions of the Alps would remain suitable for them. We found climatic variables were more important in determining abundance than occurrence. Given that environmental factors differed in terms of their impact on abundance and occurrence, we highlight the importance of monitoring both parameters to ensure effective conservation. Considering the different projected responses of hoverflies to future climate change, as well as their value as pollinators and the increasing threats they currently face, knowledge on their responses to the major drivers of their life-histories is indispensable for proper management and conservation action. We reveal that nationally-designated protected areas are insufficient to conserve the species considered here, both currently and under projected climate change. We recommend implementation of an integrated conservation management plan that can provide a continuum of protected areas along the Dinaric mountain chain to facilitate movement of species to enhance species survival.

Hoverflies are a valuable group of species in need of conservation and monitoring, due to their large contribution to pollination, biological control, and role as indicators of ecosystem change. Though hoverflies are a well-known group of insects, there has been little documentation of their current conservation status. Using long-term hoverfly monitoring data, this study reports on their prevalence in Serbia and presents priority areas for their conservation. An expert-generated, criteria-driven approach was used to identify core areas for conservation of hoverflies, named Prime Hoverfly Areas (PHA); 34% of the identified area lies outside of a national protection area (NPA) network. A systematic conservation approach (gap and irreplaceability analysis) was then applied to evaluate: 1) sufficiency of the NPA for hoverfly conservation, and 2) degree of improvement in hoverfly conservation conferred by the expert-generated PHA network. The networks were evaluated for the achievement of predefined representation targets for each of the 155 hoverfly species identified as important for conservation. We found that the NPA network is insufficient, as it does not cover the ranges of 18% of considered species. The area of the proposed PHA outside of the NPA is small (1.36% of the national territory), but its protection would greatly improve hoverfly conservation by increasing the inclusion of hoverfly habitats for previously unprotected species and by including hoverfly biodiversity hot spots. The suggested PHA network was then compared to a similarly designed habitat network aimed to conserve butterflies. There was partial overlap between the two networks, highlighting the importance of considering multiple groups in planning comprehensive conservation strategies for pollinators.