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Sugarcane ethanol is an alternative to fossil fuels that can mitigate greenhouse gas emissions and offer socioeconomic benefits, but at the same time have a series of negative impacts. Brazil is the second largest producer of fuel ethanol globally, with this production predicted to almost double over the next 15 years. However sugarcane ethanol production in the country has been shown to interact with a range of ecosystem services. It is only when such interactions are understood that we can fully determine the potential trade-offs, synergies and sustainability outcomes of biofuel production in the country. This paper explores the local perceptions about the impacts of sugarcane production on ecosystem services in two municipalities in the state of Sao Paulo with significant sugarcane production: Capivari and Rancharia. Impact perceptions have been elicited through interviews with local residents, with the results showing that perceptions vary between the two study sites and are affected considerably by the different local experiences with sugarcane production. For example, although sugarcane farming has been traditionally performed in Capivari, it has been Rancharia that has experienced more recently a rapid sugarcane expansion that has caused considerable changes in land use and farming patterns. Interview results also suggest that the negative effects of sugarcane farming can be reduced through the adoption of good agricultural practices and the enforcement of existing laws, as many respondents cited considerable improvements in ecosystem health from such actions. Assessing the perception of local communities such as the one reported in this paper can be crucial in designing policies and planning land uses that enhance the sustainability of biofuel production. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Brazil is the world's leading charcoal producer, mainly used as an energy source and reducing agent for iron ore in the pig iron and steel industry. Despite its vast production, much of the Brazilian charcoal production remains low-tech and inefficient, with limited utilization of by-products. To address potential environmental impacts, promote a circular economy, and reduce energy waste in the charcoal production chain, this study presents the benefits of using wood carbonization by-products through a Life Cycle Assessment (LCA). The analysis was performed by comparing four scenarios: i) Current wood carbonization; ii) Wood carbonization with combustion of non-condensable gases; iii) Wood carbonization with energy recovering of non-condensable gases for electricity generation; and iv) Assessing the utilization of insoluble tar and biomass waste for generating additional electricity, and the use of Pyroligneous Extract (PE) in eucalyptus cultivation. The results demonstrate that by-product utilization prevents energy waste, with an estimated potential to generate 0.19–0.26 MWh per ton of charcoal in Scenarios 3 and 4. Furthermore, 3.3 t of CO2 eq./t of charcoal are sequestered from the atmosphere, and Scenarios 2, 3, and 4 can increase this amount by 5.06%, 6.7%, and 0.48%, respectively. This paper introduces an innovative assessment of PE utilization during eucalyptus cultivation, resulting in a 6.16% reduction in greenhouse gas emission and a 46.98% decrease in abiotic resource consumption, attributed to PE's potential to partially reduce pesticide consumption. [Display omitted] • Photochemical Oxidation is the main impact category due to CO emissions in carbonization kilns. • Potential to generate 0.19–0.26 MWh of electricity per ton of charcoal through by-products utilization. • Forest residues and insoluble tar increase electricity generation potential by 36%. • Charcoal by-products offset GHG emissions from 14 to 203 kg/ton of charcoal. • Pyroligneous Extract use leads to 6% lower GHG emissions and 47% decrease in abiotic resource consumption. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, the drying of whole-tree chip (WTC) storage from young Eucalyptus plantation managed at short-rotation coppice in Brazil was studies. The biomass was converted from high-density energy plantations of Eucalyptus grandis at 2 years old into four piles. Wood chip particles had 5, 15, and 30 mm length were disposed on a paved surface to evaluate the effect on the chip drying. An additional covered pile (30-mm wood chip) was installed to evaluate the effect of coverage condition. The non-ventilated and uncovered piles were not affected by WTC length, and the final moisture content (MC) was 48.4–53.5% and temperature inside the piles (storage temperature) was approximately 36 °C. However, the coverage showed beneficial effect on drying wood chip process, collaborating to keep the MC lower than 35%, conventionally recommended for energy purposes. Among storage systems studied, the higher daily moisture content was assigned to covered pile, about 0.197% day −1 during the first 30 days. This paper can be used as a reference for further studies with wood chip pile storage at tropical conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents an historical approach on the development of the existing biomass carbonization technologies in industrial operation in Brazil, the biggest charcoal producing country in the world. The gravimetric yield of charcoal from wood does not usually surpass 25%; the time of each operation cycle is more than seven days; and less than 50% of the energy contained in the feedstock is transformed into charcoal – the rest is discharged into the environment. The electricity generation associated with charcoal production is nowadays inexistent in Brazil. This paper presents the development of an industrial technology of semi-continuous pyrolysis process, characterized by using metallic kilns with forced exhaust system: the Rima Container Kiln (RCK). The results of the test runs are related to 5 m 3 and 40 m 3 kilns, with a thermal power of 200 kW (pilot scale: 5 m 3 ) and 3000 kW (industrial scale: 40 m 3 ). The low heating value of the pyrolysis gases is 670 and 1470 kJ/m³, respectively. The main results are: a 3 h carbonization time; an average productivity per kiln of 1 ton of charcoal per hour; and a gravimetric yield of 35%. In this paper, four scenarios for the conversion of exhaust gases and tar into electricity were evaluated: the Conventional Rankine Cycle (CRC) and the Organic Rankine Cycle (ORC), each one with and without forest residues utilization. It is shown that the best economic indicators correspond to the scenario where ORC technology is used. The electricity generation cost is around U$30/MWhe for ORC and US$40/MWhe for CRC. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: There is a move towards large-scale planting of perennial bioenergy crops in many countries to help reduce Green House Gas emissions, whilst still meeting energy demand. However, the implications of such wholesale land use change have yet to be fully understood which raises some concerns over the strategy. This paper identifies, through literature review, that significant social, economic and environmental impacts might be expected from land use change in two different parts of the world, São Paulo, Brazil, where sugarcane is the predominant perennial biomass crop, and England where miscanthus and short rotation coppice are likely to predominate. In order to examine the extent to which these impacts can be addressed in decision-making, the paper develops a framework for testing the effectiveness of environmental assessment practice in these two regions, and applies it to both. The conclusion is that, whilst tools which can address sustainability impacts in decision-making exist, the legal framework in England precludes their application for the majority of land use change, and in Brazil there is incomplete consideration of social and economic impacts at the strategic level. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

The rise in global demand for ethanol has caused an expansion of ethanol mills into new areas to increase supply. Ethanol mills are supply-oriented firms; thus, they seek locations near agricultural feedstocks to ensure access and to reduce transaction costs. In Brazil, the rise of ethanol production has been more significant in the states of Goiás and Mato Grosso do Sul. Expansion of the sugarcane ethanol industry into this new frontier is a challenge because sugarcane is not a traditional crop in this region. The purpose of this paper is to understand the factors determining the location decision of ethanol mills in new producing areas. For the analysis, we focus on the new sugarcane ethanol plants in Goiás and Mato Grosso do Sul, we developed a probit and a spatial autoregressive probit model that incorporates agricultural conditions, distance to markets, infrastructure, and policy. The results indicate that counties with agricultural tradition have a higher probability of a mill locating there (0.0918). The presence of rural syndicates in a county increases the likelihood of a mill deciding to locate in that county by 0.083. The county's distance to an operating mill in 2002 decreases in 0.00006 the probability of a new mill locating in that county. Policymakers should focus on policies that promote the institutional organization of producers, development of the transportation infrastructure, and utilize the agricultural tradition to attract new mills. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Based on the general acceptance that greenhouse gases from biomass can provide a low carbon energy source, bioenergy pathways are being increasingly included in many countries renewable energy and emission reduction strategies. As a result demand for biomass is rising fast with several regions forecast to encounter major resource stresses over the coming decades. The bioenergy strategies of many countries rely heavily on future imported resource to balance their bioenergy resource demands. Applying a Biomass Resource Model to evaluate and forecast the types and potential availability of different categories of biomass resources from Brazil – a case study of a country with extensive biomass resources and export potential. This research evaluates Brazil's biomass potential to 2030, and analyses the levels of resource that may be available to export. The research finds that Brazil has extensive biomass resources that are potentially sufficient to both balance Brazilian total primary energy demand by 2030 and for Brazil to increasingly become a major exporter of resource for energy end uses. The paper also discusses the potential impact for global biomass trade, if countries such as Brazil were to adopt energy strategies that resulted in greater domestic use of their available biomass. The research's analysis shows that if the Brazilian Government were to adopt strategies to utilise a greater proportion of its resource for domestic energy, Brazil could export up to >25.8% less biomass by 2030 compared to forecast export levels based on Brazil's current policy framework. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Brazil has a long history of sugarcane development and since the 2000s has undergone a significant increase in land cultivated with sugarcane. Policy-driven demand and a growing international market mean that sugarcane cultivation in Brazil is expected to increase in the coming years. Rising land prices and strengthened environmental legislation in São Paulo state – where the bulk of production occurs – have led farmers and investors to seek new land to cultivate. As a result, the Centre- West region, including the state of Mato Grosso do Sul, has become an epicentre for sugarcane expansion in Brazil. While the social, economic and environmental impacts of sugarcane have been well documented for the state of São Paulo, much less is known about these impacts in new sugarcane frontier regions. This paper addresses an important gap in the literature through an assessment of the relationship between human development and presence or absence of a sugar mill in municipalities in Mato Grosso do Sul. Drawing on the UN Human Development Index and the Social Responsibility Index of São Paulo, this paper develops a method to examine the relationship between the presence of sugarcane processing mills and human development at the municipal level in Mato Grosso do Sul. The paper finds evidence that municipalities with a mill perform relatively better in terms of human development than those without, but that municipalities with mills already performed relatively better than those without. This raises important questions about how are and where the socio-economic benefits of sugarcane materialise. • Mato Grosso do Sul is an epicentre of sugarcane expansion in Brazil. • Investigates the relationship between human development and presence of a sugarcane mill. • Develops a measure of human development for municipalities in Mato Grosso do Sul. • Finds evidence of a relationship between sugar mills and municipal development. • Preference for establishing mills in the most developed municipalities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: This paper investigates the consumption of sugar cane ethanol in Brazil for the time period from January 2000 to December 2012. We examine ethanol and gasoline consumption along with the price ratio series. Two important features of the data are analyzed, in particular, its degree of persistence and the seasonality. The results show that the two series of consumption are fractionally integrated with orders of integration smaller than 1 implying that shocks in the series will disappear in the long run. On the other hand, the price ratio series displays an order of integration higher than 1 implying lack of mean reversion behavior. This suggests that strong policy measures must be adopted on prices in the event of shocks since they do not recover by themselves in the long run. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: The Brazilian experience of more than three decades in the development and production of fuel ethanol from sugarcane has been an example of the technical and institutional requirements for the sustainable development of second generation ethanol (lignocellulosic ethanol) production. The main goal of this paper is to demonstrate the positive sugarcane conditions for the development of second generation ethanol. In order to do that, different industrial scenarios are considered to discuss technical and economic aspects of present and future sugarcane biorefineries. Furthermore, a carbon balance is performed to assess the added value to the carbon present in different sugarcane biorefinery products. The current Brazilian sugarcane production, which is processed in more than 400 mills, is around 600 Tg y−1, occupying an area of 78,000 km2. It can supply 84 Tg of bagasse at no cost and about 42 Tg of trash, which can be processed as a lignocellulosic material for ethanol production or other higher added value products in a biorefinery – as carbon balance results showed that a biorefinery is able to add value to the carbon presented in the sugarcane – using second generation technologies. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Brazil has favorable edaphoclimatic conditions for the cultivation of biomass for energy. On the other hand, the country plans to expand its thermal power park using fossil fuels, including coal. This paper estimates the potential of co-firing biomass from energy forests in power plants based on Brazilian coal (low rank coal) from the main deposits in the south of Brazil. The technical limits of adding woody biomass to a boiler with a fluidized bed running on Brazilian coal is evaluated along with the availability of this biomass in the south of Brazil. Findings indicate that the main technical limit for boilers operating with different mixtures of biomass and coal is the alteration in the volume of exhaust gas, which varies depending on the percentages of biomass in the co-firing. The limits for biomass availability were based on environmental sustainability and the economic viability of transport. Results indicate that biomass should be available within a radius of around 120 km, which is equivalent to approximately 4,500,000 ha. Only 0.4% of this area would be required to feed a thermal plant of 600 MWe with 30% biomass. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: While the environmental and economic dimensions of sustainability have received plenty of attention in biofuel policies and assessment, only recently has the social ‘pillar’ gained increasing weight, demonstrated e.g. by debates over the dilemmas such as food vs. fuel and large vs. small-scale biofuel production. This paper calls for greater attention to power relations when assessing biofuel policies. A centre-periphery framework is applied for examining power relations in the Brazilian sugar and alcohol sector since the launching of the country''s transport biofuel programme, Proálcool, in 1975. Particular attention is paid to the country''s poor Northeast, today responsible for a small fraction of bioethanol production in Brazil, but highly dependent on its sugar and alcohol sector for employment and economic output. The analysis demonstrates the pervasive role of unequal and rigid power relations in shaping Proálcool''s social impacts. The small sugar elite in the Northeast has increased its power and protected itself against market instability by diversifying its activity, while the benefits have failed to trickle down to the poorest in the sugarcane zone in the Northeast coast. The recent and on-going entry of new players in the Brazilian biofuel scene may provide opportunities of breaking the entrenched power structures and creating space for more pro-poor policies, notably through international sustainability certification. Any such schemes must, however, be designed carefully to avoid capture by the regional elites, and counteract the present tendencies towards further concentration of power – a danger particularly acute in the development of advanced next generation biofuels. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: This paper focuses on supplying electrical power for remote communities of the Brazilian Amazon using regional biomass, specifically palm oil biomass, as a primary energy source. The use of Straight Vegetable Oil (SVO) as fuel, is indicated for isolated communities, where the hydro plants or the installation of transmissions line are impracticable. The use of vegetable oils produced in the communities, is a solution when an adequate infrastructure to extracting the oil is available. Brazil is able to use an enormous diversity of vegetable oils, due to a great variety of plants, and the favorable climatic conditions. Technical, economic, environmental and social aspects are analyzed in order to provide a basis for electrical power supply viability in these communities. A case study is presented focused on a typical Brazilian Amazon community located in the State of Pará in order to demonstrate the applicability of the proposed viability strategy. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: The goal of this paper is to analyse the impact of the implementation of a certification system on the management system (costs) of and the availability of land (quantity) for bioenergy production. Twelve socio-economic areas of concern (food supply, child labour, (minimum) wages, employment, health care and education) and environmental areas of concern (soil erosion, depletion of fresh water resources, nutrient losses and soil nutrient depletion, pollution from chemicals and biodiversity) are included. Since there is no generally accepted definition of sustainability, a loose and strict set of criteria are defined. Short rotation coppice (SRC) production systems in Ukraine and South East Brazil in 2015 are taken as case studies. The results indicate that it seems feasible to produce biomass for energy purposes at reasonable cost levels and meeting strict sustainability criteria at the same time. The loose set of criteria has no impact on the costs of energy crop production, which are calculated to be 1.7€GJ−1 in Brazil and 2.1€GJ−1 in Ukraine. The strict set of criteria results in an increase of the costs of energy crop production by 42 % in Brazil and 14 % in Ukraine. In general, compliance with strict socio-economic criteria has a limited impact on the costs, because SRC is relatively labour extensive. Strict environmental criteria likely have a larger impact. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: The increasing interest in the recuperation of the biogas coming from organic residues, associated with its energetic use is a subject that has been widely discussed. Biogas was merely seen as a sub-product obtained from anaerobic decomposition (without oxygen) of organic residue. In the paper is carried out an evaluation of the quantities of organic residues coming out from the sugar and alcohol industry (vinasse), urban solid and liquid wastes (garbage and sewage) and livestock residues (bovine and swine manure) in Brazil. Finally the electricity generation potential of biogas out of the evaluated sources of organic residues in Brazil is estimated. The results of this study indicate that the potential regarding the production of biogas out of the aforementioned organic residues of electricity production using could meet an energy demand of about 1.05 to 1.13%. Constraints for biogas energy utilization are identified and discussed. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: The paper discusses the availability of biomass in Brazil to supply charcoal to the steel industry on the bases of an initial global assessment of land potentially available for plantations and of Brazilian data that allows refining the assessment and specifying the issue of practical availability. Technical potentials are first assessed through a series of simple rules against direct competition with agriculture, forests and protected areas, and of quantitative criteria, whether geo-climatic (rainfall), demographic (population density) or legal (reserves). Institutional, social and economic factors are then identified and discussed so as to account for the practical availability of Brazilian biomass through six criteria. The ranking of nine Brazilian States according to these criteria brings out the necessary trade-offs in the selection of land for plantations that would efficiently supply charcoal to the steel industry. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Since the year 2000 or so there has been a rapid growth on fuel ethanol production and consumption, particularly in US and Brazil. Ethanol trade represented about 10% of world consumption in 2005, Brazil being the main exporter. The most important consumer markets—US and European Union (EU)—have trade regimes that constrained the comparative advantages of the most efficient producers, such as Brazil. This paper evaluates the fuel ethanol market up to 2030 together with the potential for international biotrade. Based on forecasts of gasoline consumption and on targets and mandates of fuel ethanol use, it is estimated that demand could reach 272Gl in 2030, displacing 10% of the estimated demand of gasoline (Scenario 1), or even 566Gl in the same year, displacing about 20% of the gasoline demand (Scenario 2). The analysis considers fuel ethanol consumption and production in US, EU-25, Japan, China, Brazil and the rest of the world (ROW-BR). Without significant production of ethanol from cellulosic materials in this period, displacing 10% of the gasoline demand in 2030, at reasonable cost, can only be accomplished by fostering fuel ethanol production in developing countries and enhancing ethanol trade. If the US and EU-25 reach their full production potential (based on conventional routes), the minimum amount that could be traded in 2030 would be about 34Gl. Displacing 20% of the gasoline demand by 2030 will require the combined development of second-generation technologies and large-scale international trade in ethanol fuel. Without second-generation technologies, Scenario 2 could become a reality only with large-scale production of ethanol from sugarcane in developing countries, e.g., Brazil and ROW-BR could be able to export at least 14.5Gl in 2010, 73.9Gl in 2020 and 71.8Gl in 2030. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: The United States (US) and Brazil have been the two leading producers of fuel ethanol since the 1970s. National policies have supported the production and use of ethanol from corn and sugarcane. US support in particular has included exemption from federal gasoline excise taxes, whole or partial exemption from road use (sales) taxes in nine states, a federal production tax credit, and a federal blender''s credit. In the last decade the subsidization of grain-based ethanol has been increasingly criticized as economically inefficient and of questionable social benefit. In addition, much greater production of ethanol from corn may conflict with food production needs. A promising development is the acceleration of the technical readiness of cellulosic alcohol fuels, which can be produced from the woody parts of trees and plants, perennial grasses, or residues. This technology is now being commercialized and has greater long-term potential than grain ethanol. Cellulosic ethanol is projected to be much more cost-effective, environmentally beneficial, and have a greater energy output to input ratio than grain ethanol. The technology is being developed in North America, Brazil, Japan and Europe. In this paper, we will review the historical evolution of US federal and state energy policy support for and the currently attractive economics of the production and use of ethanol from biomass. The various energy and economic policies will be reviewed and assessed for their potential effects on cellulosic ethanol development relative to gasoline in the US. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Economic competitiveness is a very frequent argument against renewable energy (RE). This paper demonstrates, through the Brazilian experience with ethanol, that economies of scale and technological advances lead to increased competitiveness of this renewable alternative, reducing the gap with conventional fossil fuels. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

The increase in dependence on electrical energy has become critical during the last decades. This paper proposes a model to evaluate the technical and economic viability of electrical energy and biofertilizer generation from cattle manure in biodigesters. In the technical phase, the relevant aspects of this process were investigated, such as raw material (type and quantity), the influence of external temperature, the hydraulic retention time of the system, the amount of energy generated and the reduction of energy costs. In the first step of the economic phase, the Investment Projects (IPs) were ranked under the Net Present Value (NPV) criterion. Next, the deterministic Expanded Multi-Index Methodology (EMIM) was applied on the IPs with positive NPV. Finally, the IPs with high sensitivity were analyzed through Monte Carlo Simulation. We validated the model on a rural property in Southeast Parana state in Brazil. Three biodigester systems were compared under ten power levels: cattle manure mono-digestion (Project A), cattle manure/corn co-digestion (60:40 mixture - Project B) and cattle manure/grass co-digestion (60:40 mixture - Project C). The production of energy in the three evaluated systems presented economic advantages, as the size of the system increases due to the economy of scale. Therefore, the combination of system biodigester and power was essential to ensure the project viability. • Use of cattle manure in the generation of bioenergy and biofertilizer. • A novel assessment model provides integration of technical and economic features. • A case study of proposed model was applied in Brazil, which showed feasible. • The combination of biodigester and power systems is essential to ensure the project viability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The aim of this paper is twofold: (i) to build a model by combining an agglomerative hierarchical algorithm with multicriteria analysis and geographic information systems (GIS) in order to identify whether there are opportunities to create strategic partnerships based on geographic coordinates of raw material suppliers and the volume of raw material supply; and (ii) to apply the model in a case study in order to identify suitable locations for building a biodigester, thus establishing strategic partnerships and circular economy-based practices. The model involves four stages: (1) defining the study site, (2) building the set of cluster solutions, (3) defining the suitable locations for building a biodigester, and (4) conducting analyses of feasibility of strategic partnership and sensitivity. The model was applied in a small region and it was analyzed the possibility of creating two or three clusters. The use of the model allowed, from both quantitative and qualitative perspectives, to preliminarily identify the possibility of creating a strategic partnership, and also determine the location of a biodigester. The case study applied in southern Brazil took place in a region with high potential for generating biogas from agro-waste. A geographic map with roads, rivers, and constraints was built. Strategic partnerships, sensitivity analysis, and circular economy-based practices were discussed. The results of this work could provide useful information when using the model for other regions, and the model could easily incorporate further criteria and conditions, making it flexible and tailored to users' needs. • An important source of clean energy that has been gaining interest worldwide is biogas. • The study build a model by combining an agglomerative hierarchical algorithm with multicriteria GIS. • The work identify whether there are opportunities to create strategic partnerships based on geographical coordinates. • The model was applied in a case study in order to identify suitable locations for the installation of a biodigester. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There is consensus that the use of renewable energy must be expanded. More and more restrictions on the use of fossil derived fuels may open the way for an increased consumption of biomass event those so far not perceived as feasible, such some biomass residue. Energy derived from biomass residues may provide even more benefits because it may replace other sources of higher-grade energy while providing proper destination for residues. Biomass from pruning residue has been overlooked as an energy resource due to many limitations. This paper addresses the issue and the means for energy valuation of pruning residues while provides final destination for them. It presents a framework to overcome most of today's challenges across the world. A case study was carried out to determine the main constraints and how they can influence the decision-making process. The variety of urban pruning residues and their rate of generation, handling, storage, logistics, economic and environmental issues, institutional regulations for a small city in Southern Brazil were taken into consideration in the analysis. Pruning residues were sampled in the field, then handled, shredded, dried, specified, stored and burnt in a concurrent woodburning furnace for testing. The diagnostics of the constraints and the lab tests were summarized and organized in a framework that aimed to assess the energy valuation of pruning residues. Results show that with proper assessment tools, projects, biomass analyses and burning technology energy valuation of pruning residues can be feasible. • Energy valuation of biomass pruning residues is feasible given proper conditions. • A novel assessment framework provides routes to overcome most of today's challenges. • A case study of energy valuation of urban pruning biomass residue in Brazil showed feasible to generate 1 to 1.5 MWe. • Information and data of bulk density, moisture content, heating value, of residues of five urban tree species. • Estimate of opportunity costs of disposal of biomass pruning residues in landfills. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

After the 2010 to 2015 crisis in Brazil's sugarcane sector, mainly caused by government mandated fuel price ceilings, the sector has entered a new growth cycle spurred by implementation of the " RenovaBio " program in 2017. The government created RenovaBio to achieve two overarching goals: increase 2028 ethanol output by roughly 53% and incrementally increase this biofuel's share in the national energy matrix to meet GHG reduction targets established at the Paris Climate Conference - COP21. The study presented in this paper addresses the expansion of mill output to meet expected future demand by 2028 through application of a mixed-integer linear optimization model to (1) determine the amount of additional sugarcane production and mill processing capacity required to meet expected 2028 Brazilian ethanol and sugar demand and (2) optimize the location of this additional capacity to minimize production and transportation costs through the multimodal transportation network. Modeling results estimate that 151,106 t of additional sugarcane processing capacity is needed to meet forecast 2028 Brazilian demand for 41,106 m³ of sugarcane ethanol and 49,106 t of sugar. Expanded mill output will require that sugarcane cultivation increase over an additional 6% of the area defined by Brazilian Sugarcane Agroecological Zoning regulations as suitable for sugarcane cultivation. Following the model's recommended optimal spatial distribution of 2028 mill processing capacity, their output can be produced and transported at a total cost of US$ 458.65/m³ of ethanol and US$ 304.27/t of sugar, slightly below 2016 minimum total costs. • Optimal location of sugarcane crushing capacity in Brazil to meet estimated 2028 demand for ethanol and sugar. • MILP model applied to investigate the best locations for greenfield sugarcane mills. • Spatial optimization of sugar and ethanol supply and interregional freight flows through the multimodal network in Brazil. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]