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Abstract: Land-use change (LUC) estimated by economic models has sparked intense international debate. Models estimate how much LUC might be induced under prescribed scenarios and rely on assumptions to generate LUC values. It is critical to test and validate underlying assumptions with empirical evidence. Furthermore, this modeling approach cannot answer if any specific indirect effects are actually caused by biofuel policy. The best way to resolve questions of causation is via scientific methods. Kim and Dale attempt to address the question of if, rather than how much, market-induced land-use change is currently detectable based on the analysis of historic evidence, and in doing so, explore some modeling assumptions behind the drivers of change. Given that there is no accepted approach to estimate the global effects of biofuel policy on land-use change, it is critical to assess the actual effects of policies through careful analysis and interpretation of empirical data. Decision makers need a valid scientific basis for policy decisions on energy choices. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Concerns about impacts of biomass growth for biofuel production emphasize the importance of planning energy crops expansion considering land, water, food and biodiversity. Brazil is the second largest ethanol producer worldwide and sugarcane is cultivated in many regions, including the Brazilian Cerrado (a Savannah-type biome). This paper analyses the impacts of first-generation sugarcane expansion in the Paranaíba basin (Goiás State), focusing on how future demand for ethanol could affect local resources availability. The study area is a sugarcane expansion frontier in Brazil, thus, the Cerrado biome should be focus of research considering competition for land and water uses. An economic-ecologic Input-Output (IO) framework was applied to develop a water-energy-food (WEF) nexus analysis. The Goiás’ IO table was expanded to assess water, energy and land uses, GHG emissions and employment levels through six different ethanol supply scenarios. Results show that if sugarcane expansion projected to 2030 considers the Goiás’ extended IO structure for the year 2008, it should cause little impact on land and water availability in the state, due to both the ample availability of suitable pasturelands for sugarcane expansion as well as water in most of the Paranaíba basin. The WEF nexus analysis is a valuable tool on guiding the sustainable management of natural resources considering water, energy, land use and GHG emissions as goals to the same policy. In particular, the hybrid extended IO-WEF nexus framework is useful to design effective biofuel policies, collectively addressing impacts on environmental, social and economic spheres, in a local or broader context. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The rise in global demand for ethanol has caused an expansion of ethanol mills into new areas to increase supply. Ethanol mills are supply-oriented firms; thus, they seek locations near agricultural feedstocks to ensure access and to reduce transaction costs. In Brazil, the rise of ethanol production has been more significant in the states of Goiás and Mato Grosso do Sul. Expansion of the sugarcane ethanol industry into this new frontier is a challenge because sugarcane is not a traditional crop in this region. The purpose of this paper is to understand the factors determining the location decision of ethanol mills in new producing areas. For the analysis, we focus on the new sugarcane ethanol plants in Goiás and Mato Grosso do Sul, we developed a probit and a spatial autoregressive probit model that incorporates agricultural conditions, distance to markets, infrastructure, and policy. The results indicate that counties with agricultural tradition have a higher probability of a mill locating there (0.0918). The presence of rural syndicates in a county increases the likelihood of a mill deciding to locate in that county by 0.083. The county's distance to an operating mill in 2002 decreases in 0.00006 the probability of a new mill locating in that county. Policymakers should focus on policies that promote the institutional organization of producers, development of the transportation infrastructure, and utilize the agricultural tradition to attract new mills. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Wood biomass for energy can be largely produced in northern Europe from forest land resulting from silvicultural practices and from agricultural land in the form of fast-growing plantations. The present paper estimates and compares the current regional potentials for wood biomass production attending to these sources. The data are based on spatialized estimates from previous models, largely based on empirical records concerning forest and plantation's productivity. The results show that 8.5 Mm 3 of wood biomass can be produced annually from plantations when using 5% of the total available agricultural land, and 58.5 Mm 3 from forest lands using current estimates of forest production. However, the results also show that a strategy for wood biomass resource management should be local rather than general: wood biomass potential from fast-growing plantations was larger in 19 regions than from forest resources (10 in Denmark, 6 in Norway and 3 in Lithuania) out of the 91 regions in the area included to this study. When considered together, northern Europe presents significant potential for wood biomass production for energy uses, and each country - and even region - should develop independent policy strategies of biomass generation in order to most efficiently realize their own potential for wood-based bioenergy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

District heating satisfies about 60% of the heat demand in Swedish buildings. Today, more than two thirds of the heat supply to the district heating systems is based on biomass and waste, and biomass alone accounts for about half of the heat supply. The purpose of this paper is to present the Swedish experiences of introducing and expanding the use of biomass in the district heating systems and to identify the main drivers behind this development. Our five research questions and the corresponding conclusions consider the driving forces from energy policy tools and local initiatives, the biomass prices, the established infrastructures in forestry and district heating, the technology paths for biomass conversion, and finally the future challenge of competing uses of biomass. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: The paper explains how bioenergy education and training is growing in Europe. Employment estimates are included for renewable energy in general, and bioenergy in particular, to highlight the need for a broadly based education and training programme that is essential to build a knowledgeable workforce that can drive Europe’s growing bioenergy sector. The paper reviews current provisions in bioenergy at Masters and PhD levels across the 27 members of the EU (EU27) plus Norway and Switzerland. This identifies a very active and expanding bioenergy education provision. 65 English-language Masters Courses in bioenergy (either focussing completely on bioenergy or with significant bioenergy content or specialisation) were identified. 231 providers of PhD studies in bioenergy were found. Masters Course offerings have grown rapidly across Europe during the last five years, but where data is available, enrolment has been quite low suggesting that there is an oversupply of courses and that course organisers are being optimistic in their projections. Existing provisions in Europe at Masters and PhD levels are clearly more than sufficient for short term needs, but further work is needed to evaluate the take-up rate and the content and focus of the provisions. To ensure talented graduates are attracted to these programmes, better promotion, stronger links with the research community and industry, and increased collaboration among course providers are needed. Short Courses of two to five days are an excellent way of meeting post-experience training needs but require further growth and development to serve the needs of the bioenergy community. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: In the past decade or so, the British government policy support for renewable energy (RE) has been at the core of the rapid growth of bioenergy in the UK rather than genuine market forces. Policy support has been through various instruments which are discussed in this paper, with particular attention given to co-firing and transport fuels. The UK energy sector remains dominated by large fossil fuels power plants and this does not facilitate the introduction of RE. One exception is co-firing which in 2005 generated 2.5TWh. Another area of considerable potential and interest is the use of biofuels (biodiesel and bioethanol) for transport, although current contribution remains still very small (0.18% of total fuel sales in 2005). In 2005, the UK used 1.4 million tonnes of biomass in co-firing, mostly imported, while considerable potential exists for further expansion should policy incentives continue. It is also generally accepted that the UK will have to rely largely on imports if it is to fulfil its 5% minimum biofuel blends agreed for 2010 and 10% in 2015. Both sectors present excellent opportunities for international bioenergy trade, despite the domestic production potential, as demonstrated in this paper. In addition, the forthcoming introduction of carbon and sustainability reporting should incentivise greater reporting along the supply chain, encouraging trade in the most sustainable biofuels. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

The need for a unified appraisal framework for biomass and bioenergy has been extensively discussed in literature. It is emphasized that a working unified appraisal framework can essentially improve bioenergy policymaking by offering a structured and transparent approach to tackle the bioenergy trilemma and to work out whether or not a certain biomass conversion technology or system should be implemented (always in direct comparison to others). Further, such an approach could be used to better examine the interdependencies of the single elements of the triple bottom line of sustainability (economy, environment, society). This also would lead to the improvement of existing and future policies and would give bioenergy a better foundation within the ethical debate by transparently showing the trade-offs between economy, environment and society. This paper drafts a unified appraisal framework for biomass conversion systems that integrates different approaches on the data, impact and decision making level. On the bottom line the proposed architecture in total addresses all relevant requirements from literature and fits well into the valuable work that has been done previously. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The electricity infrastructure in many developed countries requires significant investment to meet ambitious carbon emissions reduction targets, and to bridge the gap between future supply and demand. Perennial energy crops have the potential to deliver electricity generation capacity while reducing carbon emissions, leading to polices supporting the adoption of these crops. In the UK, for example, support has been in place over the past decade, although uptake and the market development have so far been relatively modest. This paper combines biophysical and socio-economic process representations within an agent-based model (ABM), to offer insights into the dynamics of the development of the perennial energy crop market. Against a changing policy landscape, several potential policy scenarios are developed to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of the market in providing a source of low carbon renewable electricity, and to achieve carbon emissions abatement. The results demonstrate the key role of both energy and agricultural policies in stimulating the rate and level of uptake; consequently influencing the cost-effectiveness of these measures. The UK example shows that energy crops have the potential to deliver significant emissions abatement (up to 24 Mt carbon dioxide equivalent year −1 , 4% of 2013 UK total emissions), and renewable electricity (up to 29 TWh year −1 , 8% of UK electricity or 3% of primary energy demand), but a holistic assessment of related policies is needed to ensure that support is cost-effective. However, recent policy developments suggest that domestically grown perennial energy crops will only play a niche role (<0.2%) of the UK energy balance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In designing policies to promote bioenergy, policy makers face challenges concerning uncertainties about the sustainability of bioenergy pathways (including greenhouse gas balances), technology and resource costs, or future energy market framework conditions. New information becomes available with time, but policy adjustments can involve high levels of adaptation costs. To enable an effective steering of technology choices and innovation, policies have to strike a balance between creating a consistent institutional framework, which establishes planning security for investors, and sufficient flexibility to adapt to new information. This paper examines implications of economic theory for handling cost and benefit uncertainty in bioelectricity policy design, focussing on choices between price and quantity instruments, technology differentiation, and policy adjustment. Findings are applied to two case studies, the UK's Renewables Obligation and the German feed-in tariff/feed-in premium scheme. Case study results show the trade-offs that are involved in instrument choice and design – depending on political priorities and a country's specific context, different options can prove more adequate. Combining market-based remuneration with sustainability criteria results in strong incentives for bioenergy producers to search for low-cost solutions; whereas cost-based price instruments with centrally steered technology and feedstock choices offer higher planning security for investors and more direct control for policy makers over what pathways are implemented. Independent of the choice of instrument type and technology differentiation mechanism, findings emphasise the importance of a careful policy design, which determines the exact balance between performance criteria such as cost control, incentive intensity, planning security and adaptive efficiency. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

It is widely recognized that a lack of social acceptance is likely to hinder the ability of governments to achieve policy targets concerning renewable energies. In this paper, we discuss the results of a pre- and post-test online survey that was conducted as part of the 2012 “Advanced Biofuels” deliberative democracy public engagement event in Montréal, Québec. The event sough to foster public learning and discussion in order to produce socially acceptable policy input for one type of renewable energy: advanced lignocellulosic biofuels. Survey results show that the majority of participants were strongly supportive of advanced lignocellulosic biofuel development in Canada after the deliberative event. By the end of the event, support also grew for current Canadian biofuel policies and many agreed that increasing biofuel production should be widely supported by the Canadian public. However, despite this support, about two thirds of participants revealed that they did not feel included in government decisions about biofuels. The gap between support after inclusive deliberation and expressed exclusion from Canadian government decisions points to the importance of fostering future citizen engagements in this area of renewable energy policy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: This paper investigates the consumption of sugar cane ethanol in Brazil for the time period from January 2000 to December 2012. We examine ethanol and gasoline consumption along with the price ratio series. Two important features of the data are analyzed, in particular, its degree of persistence and the seasonality. The results show that the two series of consumption are fractionally integrated with orders of integration smaller than 1 implying that shocks in the series will disappear in the long run. On the other hand, the price ratio series displays an order of integration higher than 1 implying lack of mean reversion behavior. This suggests that strong policy measures must be adopted on prices in the event of shocks since they do not recover by themselves in the long run. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: This special issue has presented some of the specific findings of the RE-Impact Project which was commissioned and funded by the EuropeAid Cooperation Office from 2007 until its conclusion in 2010. The project aimed to provide impact assessment frameworks and influence relevant policies through direct involvement in bioenergy projects and policy analysis in South Africa, Uganda, India and China. The papers summarised here have covered issues related to Jatropha curcas and forest-based bioenergy in these countries. Taking an overall look at the project findings we can identify a number of general conclusions relevant for the future of bioenergy and rural development in Africa and Asia. First, only local and context-specific sustainability assessment can identify the risk and responsibilities of the different groups and the exact impact on the environment. Second, many initiatives both in biofuels and forest-based bioenergy are marred by a lack of understanding of the life-cycle financial analysis. Third, careful consideration of local physical and social conditions and the economics of the production chain can identify real opportunities for rural development using bioenergy. The current global impasse in bioenergy policies could actually be advantageous to the development of bioenergy in developing countries. Without the pressure from America and Europe to develop bioenergy systems for climate change mitigation, countries in Africa and Asia may have the breathing room to shape bioenergy systems for their own internal energy supply in an orderly fashion. However, in order to avoid environmental and social impacts it will be necessary to articulate together elements of a number of measures including market-based certification, national policy formulation, national legislation, impact assessments, sustainability planning, land use planning, research, monitoring and evaluation taking into account country and project specific sustainability criteria. Unfortunately, many of the countries in Africa and Asia where bioenergy can play an important role still lack institutional structures able to articulate this sustainable development. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Transition towards renewable low carbon energy is a fundamental element of climate change mitigation, energy from biomass technologies are targeted within many country's decarbonisation strategies. Decision makers globally face many challenges developing strategies to drive this transition; models are increasingly used to road-test policy interventions before their implemented. A Bioenergy Literature Database was developed of 124,285 papers published 2000–2018. These document an exponential rise in research focusing on biomass and bioenergy. On average 35.4% of papers apply modelling analyses, 99.5% of these use bespoke models rather than high profile Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) or Energy System Models – although it is these high profile models that are widely used in policy development. A review of the role of bioenergy within energy models is undertaken with a key objective of critiquing their performances in analysing bioenergy research questions. IAMs are found to be widely applied to investigate the impact of bioenergy within wider energy and environmental systems, e.g. for reducing emissions. Energy System Models focus on bioenergy processes, technologies and feedstocks, although don't capture wider environmental, economic and social themes. Specialist Bioenergy Models offer methods for bespoke analyses of all bioenergy issues, their narrow system boundaries generate targeted outputs but wider effects such as land-use change may not be captured. Caution is required when interpreting modelling outputs, particularly when used to inform policy. It's not feasible to develop all-encompassing bioenergy models covering all nuances between systems, but there is strong argument for using multiple models in parallel to build robust overall conclusions. • Policy is developed disproportionality using high profile Energy Models. • 99.5% bioenergy modelling research uses bespoke models. • Bioenergy modelling outputs limited by design & assumption of the model. • Different modelling approaches do not/cannot cover all bioenergy research topics. • Strong argument for using multiple models for more robust overall conclusions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: The purpose of this paper is to assess possible changes in the European trade patterns of forest raw material arising from the implementation of the RES2020 Directive. The analysis is done by developing a partial general equilibrium model of the European trade in forest raw materials. The results suggest that the ambitious EU energy policy goal, stimulating the use of forest raw materials, will boost its trade. In the RES2020 scenario the total trade in by-products will increase with 61 percent – from 38 million to 61 million cubic metres solid volume compared to the baseline scenario. For logging residues the amount increases from 50 million to 104 million cubic metres solid volume – or by 110 percent in the RES2020 scenario compared to the baseline. Since the national goals in the RES2020 Directive are mandatory in contrast to the indicative recommendations stated in previous EU energy policies on renewables this study concludes that a more ambitious goal will inevitably affect the input competing industries. This stresses the need to thoroughly account for different aspects when evaluating the consequences of different policies. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Renewable energy sources (RES) are being increasingly considered as key elements in future development strategies on a national, regional and local level. This paper discusses the methodological approach to local energy planning proposed by the authors and identifies the most important drivers for its application at the regional level. This approach is different to the previous ‘top-down’ or strategic assessments as seen many times in the past in Croatia and is expected to herald a new future for the local community ownership and ‘buy-in’ to renewable energy, resulting in the greater probability of individual project success where local stakeholder sympathy is retained. The implementation of the developed approach is demonstrated on Karlovac County (western Croatia), which has considerable potential for the utilisation of different RES. The main outcomes are described: approved Regional strategy for utilisation of renewable energy sources in the Karlovac County; number of individual projects identified, supported and launched; and a Regional energy agency created as the implementing body for future renewable energy projects. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: The purpose of this paper is to provide estimated Armington elasticities for selected European countries and for three forest biomass commodities of main interest in many energy models: roundwood, chips & particles and wood residues. The Armington elasticity is based on the assumption that a specific forest biomass commodity is differentiated by its origin. The statistically significant estimated Armington elasticities range from 0.52 for roundwood in Hungary to approximately 4.53 for roundwood in Estonia. On average, the statistically significant Armington elasticity for chips & particles over all countries is 1.7 and for wood residues and roundwood 1.3 and 1.5, respectively. These elasticities can provide benchmark values for simulation models trying to assess trade patterns of forest biomass commodities and energy policy effects for European countries or for the EU as a whole. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Life cycle assessment (LCA) is the standard approach used to evaluate the greenhouse gas (GHG) benefits of biofuels. However, the need for the appropriate use of LCA in policy contexts is highlighted by recent findings that corn-based ethanol may actually increase GHG emissions. This is in contrary to most existing LCA results. LCA estimates can vary across studies due to heterogeneities in inputs and production technology. Whether marginal or average impacts are considered can matter as well. Most important of all, LCA is product-centered. The determination of the impact of biofuels expansion requires a system wide approach (SWA) that accounts for impacts on all affected products and processes. This paper presents both LCA and SWA for ethanol based on Iowa corn. LCA was conducted in several different ways. Growing corn in rotation with soybean generates 35% less GHG emissions than growing corn after corn. Based on average corn production, ethanol''s GHG benefits were lower in 2007 than in 2006 because of an increase in continuous corn in 2007. When only additional corn was considered, ethanol emitted about 22% less GHGs than gasoline. SWA was applied to two simple cases. Using 2006 as a baseline and 2007 as a scenario, corn ethanol''s benefits were about 20% of the emissions of gasoline. If geographical limits are expanded beyond Iowa, then corn ethanol could generate more GHG emissions than gasoline. These results highlight the importance of boundary definition for both LCA and SWA. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Bioenergy is seen as one of the key options to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions and substitute fossil fuels. Bioenergy is also an atypical energy source due to its diversity and inter-linkages with many other technological and policy areas. The goal of this paper is to analyze the Portuguese possibilities for bioenergy provision from biomass. The potentials of biomass, conversion technologies and legal framework are analysed and discussed. The result of this analysis shows that there are still unused potentials especially from forestry, which can contribute significantly to cover the bioenergy targets. However, the Portuguese experience with conversion technologies is limited to combustion, which is a drawback that must be solved so as to the bioenergy potential can be used. Research and Development projects, as well as demonstration projects are needed in order to improve the efficiency of the technological processes. At political level, Portuguese governments have been following the policies and strategies of the European Commission in the energy sector. However, energy crops market, due to the inter-linkage with agricultural policy, seems to need some additional political push. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: In 2003 the UK Government introduced the reduction of CO2 emissions as a core objective of domestic energy policy. This initiated a policy process intended to realise a major expansion in the supply and use of biomass in the UK. Evidence of an expansion in the use of biomass is slight, and historically the UK has shown limited response to policy initiatives. This paper describes the policy context in the UK and EU, and presents a structured framework for analysing the policy debate including best practice criteria for policy formation. This framework is then used to assess whether the current debate is likely to affect the rate of implementation. We conclude that increased deployment will be driven by EU policy rather than domestic initiatives, and that the UK policy process falls short of best practice in that it fails to make a causal link between policy objectives and anticipated outcomes. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: This paper gives an overview of bioenergy use, prices, markets and markets prospects in Norway. The current energy production based on biomass in Norway is about 50pJ or 10% of the stationary energy consumption. About one-half is produced and used in forest industries. The main share of bioenergy used by households consists of firewood in stoves. The use of refined, solid biofuels in heat production is hampered by low coverage of water-borne heating systems and historically low end-user prices of electricity. Harvest levels in Norwegian forests are much below annual growth, implying that forest biomass resources steadily accumulate. Decreasing wood prices combined with rising prices of oil and electricity in recent year have improved competitiveness of solid biofuels in the heat market. Projections of future bioenergy use in Norway using a partial equilibrium forest sector model suggest that bioenergy use will increase in some market segments with the current price levels of electricity and oil. However, quite minor improvements of bioenergy competitiveness or increased energy prices may release substantially higher bioenergy use. A net increase in bioenergy use of 5TWh (18PJ 1 [1] 1TWh=3.6pJ. ) by 2010 is realistic, but requires public awareness of the opportunities in bioenergy technologies, as well as significant economic incentives. Wood stoves and replacement of oil-boilers in central heating systems show highest competitiveness, whereas district heating systems need higher energy prices or more subsidies to be competitive. Biomass for combined heat and power projects or domestically produced liquid biofuels seems to have limited competitiveness in the short term. On the raw material side, wood residues, and roundwood from pine and non-coniferous species represent the main potential, whereas spruce continues to be consumed by the forest industries. According to the model projections, imported biomass will take a significant share of the possible increase of wood consumption in Norway. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: The use of forest fuels has more than doubled in Sweden over the last 25–30 years. Almost a fifth of the utilized energy is now based on forest biomass. Concurrently, real prices of bioenergy have decreased to less than a third of what they were 25 years ago. Some principal driving forces behind this development are identified and discussed in this paper. The origin of this development was equally the result of a foreseen shortage of fibre and a reaction to this vulnerable position, made obvious through the ‘oil crises’. Although Sweden has a long tradition of large-scale use of forest energy, 35 years ago she was almost totally dependent on imported oil. Forest mechanisation provided rational solutions to handling small diameter wood and stumps in conventional industrial processes, but also enabled the economical use of such wood for energy. During 3 decades of development, drivers and obstacles have shifted. What started to reduce dependence on fossil fuels was later driven by increased general environmental awareness. An emerging ‘green’ lobby blocked the development of nuclear power and expanded harnessing of hydropower which were alternative means of self-sufficiency. In the last 10–15 years, focus has changed again. Global concern for climatic change due to emissions of greenhouse gases is a powerful driver, endorsing increased use of CO2-neutral energy sources. Sustainability, resource cycling and the welfare of future generations are seen as goals for continued development. Ideals and policies do not, however, automatically induce change in regular operations. A set of drivers is identified, that has played the decisive role in practice. These include the direct technical–operational drivers, as well as indirect drivers through market development, taxation and other legislation. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: This paper presents a synthesis of assessment of the energy potential of non-plantation biomass resources in five Asian countries—China, India, Philippines, Sri Lanka and Thailand, and is based on the detailed national-level studies carried out in these countries under the Asian Regional Research Programme in Energy, Environment and Climate (ARRPEEC). The national level studies were undertaken to estimate the energy potential of: (i) primary residues, (ii) secondary and processing residues (iii) animal manure, (iv) municipal solid wastes (MSW), (v) fuelwood released through efficiency improvement and substitution by other fuels. The sustainable potential of non-plantation biomass resources in 2010 in China, India, Philippines, Sri Lanka and Thailand is estimated to be about 8.90, 8.77, 0.97, 0.14 and 0.82 EJ, respectively; the potential is estimated to be about 17, 45, 34, 33, and 14% of the projected total energy consumption in 2010, respectively, in the countries. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Following the development of large-scale use of biomass energy in the EU, international biofuel trade is a plausible scenario and something that is already taking place in Northern Europe. This paper focuses on Swedish biofuel imports, both direct and indirect imports, the latter which derive from the fact that part of the imported pulpwood and timber end up as fuel. The objective is to describe the biomass import flows, the actors involved and analyse the fundamental drivers for the trade flows.The rapid expansion of biomass energy, that has taken place in district heating since the early 1990s in Sweden, has been met partly by imports. The direct biofuel import was estimated to 18 PJ for 2000, which corresponded to 26% of the biofuel supply in district heating. The total indirect biofuel import was estimated to 9 PJ of which 5.5 PJ is consumed in the district heating sector. Sawmill wood chips, decay-damaged stemwood and pellets are imported from Estonia and Latvia, whereas used wood and solid recovered fuels are imported from Germany and the Netherlands. Tall oil and pellets are imported from North America.Key factors related to the Swedish biofuel import are analysed, both from the view of Swedish demand and from the view of supply in the Baltic countries as well as supply from Germany or the Netherlands. National differences in energy policy are perhaps the most important driving force behind the seemingly strange trade flows. Structures in the different national energy systems are also discussed as well as the transformation process that has taken place in the forest sector in the Baltic countries. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

The role of renewable energy resources in developing countries has increased considerably over the last decade. Technological developments are so advanced that the renewables can be conveniently substituted for commercial energy sources. The extent to which renewable energy could be substituted in the commercial energy scene in respect of environment and social impact is discussed in this paper. An optimal renewable energy mathematical (OREM) model will be developed for the substitution of renewable energy sources in India over the years 2010–11, 2015–16 and 2020–21. It is a linear programming model, which allocates optimal renewable energy sources for different end-uses such as lighting, cooking, pumping, heating, cooling and transportation. The model was developed with the objective of minimizing cost/efficiency ratio based on social acceptance, reliability, demand and potential constraints. The model predicts that around 25% of the total energy consumed will be from renewable energy sources by the year 2020–21. It was found that at optimal condition, for lighting end-use, solar PV and biogas electricity conversion could be used to an extent of 520 and 750 PJ, respectively. Similarly, the optimal renewable energy sources for other end-uses were determined by running OREM model. The potential for biomass, biogas, firewood and ethanol were varied in the model and different renewable energy distribution patterns were obtained. When the potential of these resources are increased in the model, the contribution of solar energy systems would decrease as they are expensive. Sensitivity analysis was conducted to validate the OREM model. The coefficient of sensitivity has been obtained for the variation of renewable energy demand, social acceptance and potential of renewable energy sources. Sensitivity analysis revealed that the OREM model is very sensitive with regard to variation of different parameters in the model. This model can be used in the formation of energy strategies in India. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]