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Cardiac ventricular myocyte action potential dynamics are regulated by intricate and nonlinear interactions between the cell transmembrane potential and ionic currents and concentrations. Present technology limits the ability to measure transmembrane potential and multiple ionic currents simultaneously, which narrows the scope of experiments to provide a complete snapshot of the cardiac myocyte state. This limitation presents an obstacle for understanding how perturbations can trigger arrhythmias and more broadly how the myocyte responds to different conditions, such as changes in pacing rate or responses to drug treatment. In this study, we demonstrate that a data-assimilation approach can successfully reconstruct and predict the dynamics of a heterogeneous virtual cardiac ventricular myocyte population in the presence of parameter uncertainty. A population of heterogeneous cardiac ventricular myocytes is generated by varying ionic current conductance parameters, and additional observational uncertainty is mimicked by the addition of Gaussian noise to the transmembrane potential. We demonstrate that the data-assimilation approach accurately reconstructs transmembrane potential, with error less than the magnitude of the noise. Further, the data-assimilation approach successfully estimates the conductances of ionic currents generally with high accuracy and requiring low computational time. As a proof of concept, we apply the data-assimilation approach to reconstruct action potential dynamics from optical mapping experiments in an ex vivo isolated guinea pig heart. Critically, we demonstrate that the ionic conductance parameters estimated from a recording at one pacing frequency can accurately predict action potential dynamics at different rates., Competing Interests: Declaration of interests The authors declare no competing interests., (Copyright © 2024 Biophysical Society. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

Epithelial-mesenchymal transition (EMT) is a biological process that plays a central role in embryonic development, tissue regeneration, and cancer metastasis. Transforming growth factor-β (TGFβ) is a potent inducer of this cellular transition, comprising transitions from an epithelial state to partial or hybrid EMT state(s), to a mesenchymal state. Recent experimental studies have shown that, within a population of epithelial cells, heterogeneous phenotypical profiles arise in response to different time- and TGFβ dose-dependent stimuli. This offers a challenge for computational models, as most model parameters are generally obtained to represent typical cell responses, not necessarily specific responses nor to capture population variability. In this study, we applied a data-assimilation approach that combines limited noisy observations with predictions from a computational model, paired with parameter estimation. Synthetic experiments mimic the biological heterogeneity in cell states that is observed in epithelial cell populations by generating a large population of model parameter sets. Analysis of the parameters for virtual epithelial cells with biologically significant characteristics (e.g., EMT prone or resistant) illustrates that these sub-populations have identifiable critical model parameters. We perform a series of in silico experiments in which a forecasting system reconstructs the EMT dynamics of each virtual cell within a heterogeneous population exposed to time-dependent exogenous TGFβ dose and either an EMT-suppressing or EMT-promoting perturbation. We find that estimating population-specific critical parameters significantly improved the prediction accuracy of cell responses. Thus, with appropriate protocol design, we demonstrate that a data-assimilation approach successfully reconstructs and predicts the dynamics of a heterogeneous virtual epithelial cell population in the presence of physiological model error and parameter uncertainty., Competing Interests: Declaration of interests The authors declare no competing interests., (Copyright © 2022 Biophysical Society. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

Epithelial-mesenchymal transition (EMT) is a fundamental biological process that plays a central role in embryonic development, tissue regeneration, and cancer metastasis. Transforming growth factor-β (TGFβ) is a potent inducer of this cellular transition, which is composed of transitions from an epithelial state to intermediate or partial EMT state(s) to a mesenchymal state. Using computational models to predict cell state transitions in a specific experiment is inherently difficult for reasons including model parameter uncertainty and error associated with experimental observations. In this study, we demonstrate that a data-assimilation approach using an ensemble Kalman filter, which combines limited noisy observations with predictions from a computational model of TGFβ-induced EMT, can reconstruct the cell state and predict the timing of state transitions. We used our approach in proof-of-concept "synthetic" in silico experiments, in which experimental observations were produced from a known computational model with the addition of noise. We mimic parameter uncertainty in in vitro experiments by incorporating model error that shifts the TGFβ doses associated with the state transitions and reproduces experimentally observed variability in cell state by either shifting a single parameter or generating "populations" of model parameters. We performed synthetic experiments for a wide range of TGFβ doses, investigating different cell steady-state conditions, and conducted parameter studies varying properties of the data-assimilation approach including the time interval between observations and incorporating multiplicative inflation, a technique to compensate for underestimation of the model uncertainty and mitigate the influence of model error. We find that cell state can be successfully reconstructed and the future cell state predicted in synthetic experiments, even in the setting of model error, when experimental observations are performed at a sufficiently short time interval and incorporate multiplicative inflation. Our study demonstrates the feasibility and utility of a data-assimilation approach to forecasting the fate of cells undergoing EMT., (Copyright © 2020 Biophysical Society. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)