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Objectives There are no established tools to identify individuals at risk for developing bipolar disorder. We developed a set of ultra-high-risk criteria for bipolar disorder [bipolar at-risk ( BAR)]. The primary aim of the present study was to determine the predictive validity of the BAR criteria. Methods This was a 12-month prospective study that was conducted at Orygen Youth Health Clinical Program, a public mental health program for young people aged 15-24 years in metropolitan Melbourne, Australia. At intake, BAR screen-positive individuals and a matched group of individuals who did not meet BAR criteria were observed over a period of 12 months. The BAR criteria include general criteria such as being in the peak age range for the onset of the disorder, as well as sub-threshold mania, depression plus cyclothymic features, and depression plus genetic risk. Conversion to first-episode mania/hypomania was defined by the presence of DSM- IV manic symptoms for more than four days, in line with the DSM- IV definition of hypomania/mania. Results A total of 559 help-seeking patients were screened. Of the eligible participants, 59 (10.6%) met BAR criteria. Thirty-five participants were included in the BAR group and 35 matched participants were selected to be in the control group. During the follow-up, five BAR patients out of 35 (14.3%) converted to first-episode hypomania/mania as opposed to none in the non- BAR group [χ2(1) = 5.38, p = 0.020]. Four out of these five converters had a DSM- IV diagnosis of bipolar I or bipolar II disorder. Conclusions These findings support the possibility of identification of persons prior to the onset of mania/hypomania. The proposed criteria need further evaluation in larger, prospective studies with longer follow-up periods. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]