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Introduction: Endoscopic ultrasound (EUS) may play a role in evaluating treatment response after definitive chemoradiation therapy (dCRT) for esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC). This study explored the prognostic markers of EUS with biopsies and developed two nomograms for survival prediction. Methods: A total of 821 patients newly diagnosed with ESCC between January 2015 and December 2019 were reviewed. We investigated the prognostic value of the changes in tumor imaging characteristics and histopathological markers by an interim response evaluation, including presence of stenosis, ulceration, tumor length, tumor thickness, lumen involvement, and tumor remission. Independent prognostic factors of progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS) were determined using Cox regression analysis and further selected to build two nomogram models for survival prediction. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, calibration curve, and decision curve analysis (DCA) were used to respectively assess its discriminatory capacity, predictive accuracy, and clinical usefulness. Results: A total of 155 patients were enrolled in this study and divided into the training (109 cases) and testing (46 cases) cohorts. Tumor length, residual tumor thickness, reduction in tumor thickness, lumen involvement, and excellent remission (ER) of spatial luminal involvement in ESCC (ER/SLI) differed significantly between responders and non-responders. For patients undergoing dCRT, tumor stage (P = 0.001, 0.002), tumor length (P = 0.013, 0.008), > 0.36 reduction in tumor thickness (P = 0.004, 0.004) and ER/SLI (P = 0.041, 0.031) were independent prognostic markers for both PFS and OS. Time-dependent ROC curves, calibration curves, and DCA indicated that the predicted survival rates of our two established nomogram models were highly accurate. Conclusion: Our nomogram showed high accuracy in predicting PFS and OS for ESCC after dCRT. External validation and complementation of other biomarkers are needed in further studies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The clinical staging systems for adenocarcinoma of the esophagogastric junction (AEG) are controversial. We aimed to propose a prognostic nomogram based on real-world data for predicting survival of Siewert type II/III AEG patients after surgery.Methods: A total of 396 patients with Siewert type II/III AEG diagnosed and treated at the Center for Gastrointestinal Surgery, the First Affiliated Hospital, Sun Yat-sen University, from June 2009 to June 2017 were enrolled. The original data of 29 variables were exported from the electronic medical records system. The nomogram was established based on multivariate Cox regression coefficients, and its performance was measured using Harrell's concordance index (C-index), receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis and calibration curve.Results: A nomogram was constructed based on nine variables. The C-index for overall survival (OS) prediction was 0.76 (95% CI, 0.72 to 0.80) in the training cohort, in the validation-1 cohort was 0.79 (95% CI, 0.72 to 0.86), and 0.73 (95% CI, 0.67 to 0.80) in the validation-2 cohort. Time-dependent ROC curves and calibration curves in all three cohorts showed good prognostic predictive accuracy. We further proved the superiority of the nomogram in predictive accuracy for OS to pathological TNM (pTNM) staging system and other independent prognostic factors. Kaplan-Meier survival curves demonstrated the pTNM stage, grade of differentiation, positive lymph node, log odds of positive lymph node and organ invasion were prognostic factors with good discriminative ability.Conclusion: The established nomogram demonstrated a more precise prognostic prediction for patients with Siewert type II/III AEG. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]