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Abstract Background Identifying lymph node metastasis areas during surgery for early invasive lung adenocarcinoma remains challenging. The aim of this study was to develop a nomogram mathematical model before the end of surgery for predicting lymph node metastasis in patients with early invasive lung adenocarcinoma. Methods In this study, we included patients with invasive lung adenocarcinoma measuring ≤ 2 cm who underwent pulmonary resection with definite pathology at Qilu Hospital of Shandong University from January 2020 to January 2022. Preoperative biomarker results, clinical features, and computed tomography characteristics were collected. The enrolled patients were randomized into a training cohort and a validation cohort in a 7:3 ratio. The training cohort was used to construct the predictive model, while the validation cohort was used to test the model independently. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were performed to identify independent risk factors. The prediction model and nomogram were established based on the independent risk factors. Recipient operating characteristic (ROC) curves were used to assess the discrimination ability of the model. Calibration capability was assessed using the Hosmer–Lemeshow test and calibration curves. The clinical utility of the nomogram was assessed using decision curve analysis (DCA). Results The overall incidence of lymph node metastasis was 13.23% (61/461). Six indicators were finally determined to be independently associated with lymph node metastasis. These six indicators were: age (P