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Elucidating the effects of naturally occurring genetic variation is one of the major challenges for personalized health and personalized medicine. Here, we introduce SNAP2, a novel neural network based classifier that improves over the state-of-the-art in distinguishing between effect and neutral variants. Our method's improved performance results from screening many potentially relevant protein features and from refining our development data sets. Cross-validated on >100k experimentally annotated variants, SNAP2 significantly outperformed other methods, attaining a two-state accuracy (effect/neutral) of 83%. SNAP2 also outperformed combinations of other methods. Performance increased for human variants but much more so for other organisms. Our method's carefully calibrated reliability index informs selection of variants for experimental follow up, with the most strongly predicted half of all effect variants predicted at over 96% accuracy. As expected, the evolutionary information from automatically generated multiple sequence alignments gave the strongest signal for the prediction. However, we also optimized our new method to perform surprisingly well even without alignments. This feature reduces prediction runtime by over two orders of magnitude, enables cross-genome comparisons, and renders our new method as the best solution for the 10-20% of sequence orphans. SNAP2 is available at: https://rostlab.org/services/snap2web.

Background: In recent years the number of human genetic variants deposited into the publicly available databases has been increasing exponentially. The latest version of dbSNP, for example, contains ~50 million validated Single Nucleotide Variants (SNVs). SNVs make up most of human variation and are often the primary causes of disease. The non-synonymous SNVs (nsSNVs) result in single amino acid substitutions and may affect protein function, often causing disease. Although several methods for the detection of nsSNV effects have already been developed, the consistent increase in annotated data is offering the opportunity to improve prediction accuracy., Results: Here we present a new approach for the detection of disease-associated nsSNVs (Meta-SNP) that integrates four existing methods: PANTHER, PhD-SNP, SIFT and SNAP. We first tested the accuracy of each method using a dataset of 35,766 disease-annotated mutations from 8,667 proteins extracted from the SwissVar database. The four methods reached overall accuracies of 64%-76% with a Matthew's correlation coefficient (MCC) of 0.38-0.53. We then used the outputs of these methods to develop a machine learning based approach that discriminates between disease-associated and polymorphic variants (Meta-SNP). In testing, the combined method reached 79% overall accuracy and 0.59 MCC, ~3% higher accuracy and ~0.05 higher correlation with respect to the best-performing method. Moreover, for the hardest-to-define subset of nsSNVs, i.e. variants for which half of the predictors disagreed with the other half, Meta-SNP attained 8% higher accuracy than the best predictor., Conclusions: Here we find that the Meta-SNP algorithm achieves better performance than the best single predictor. This result suggests that the methods used for the prediction of variant-disease associations are orthogonal, encoding different biologically relevant relationships. Careful combination of predictions from various resources is therefore a good strategy for the selection of high reliability predictions. Indeed, for the subset of nsSNVs where all predictors were in agreement (46% of all nsSNVs in the set), our method reached 87% overall accuracy and 0.73 MCC. Meta-SNP server is freely accessible at http://snps.biofold.org/meta-snp.

Background: Non-synonymous single nucleotide polymorphisms (nsSNPs) alter the protein sequence and can cause disease. The impact has been described by reliable experiments for relatively few mutations. Here, we study predictions for functional impact of disease-annotated mutations from OMIM, PMD and Swiss-Prot and of variants not linked to disease., Results: Most disease-causing mutations were predicted to impact protein function. More surprisingly, the raw predictions scores for disease-causing mutations were higher than the scores for the function-altering data set originally used for developing the prediction method (here SNAP). We might expect that diseases are caused by change-of-function mutations. However, it is surprising how well prediction methods developed for different purposes identify this link. Conversely, our predictions suggest that the set of nsSNPs not currently linked to diseases contains very few strong disease associations to be discovered., Conclusions: Firstly, annotations of disease-causing nsSNPs are on average so reliable that they can be used as proxies for functional impact. Secondly, disease-causing nsSNPs can be identified very well by methods that predict the impact of mutations on protein function. This implies that the existing prediction methods provide a very good means of choosing a set of suspect SNPs relevant for disease.