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Abstract Background Physicians who serve as public health specialists at public health centers and health departments in local or central government have significant roles because of their public health expertise. The aim of this study is to analyze the retention and career paths of such specialists in Japan. Method We analyzed the data of seven consecutive surveys, spanning 1994 to 2006. We first analyzed the 2006 survey data by sex, age group, and facility type. We then examined the changes over time in the proportion of physicians working in public health administration agencies. We also examined the distribution of the facility types and specialties in which physicians worked both before beginning and after leaving their jobs. These analyses were performed by using physician registration numbers to cross-link data from two consecutive surveys. Results The proportion of physicians working in public health administration agencies was 0.7% in 2006. The actual numbers for each survey ranged between 1,800 and 1,900. The overall rate remaining in public health administration agencies during the two-year survey interval was 72.8% for 1994-1996. The ratio declined to 67.2% for 2004-2006. Among younger physicians with 1-10 years of experience, the retention rate showed a sharp decline, dropping from 72.6% to 50.0%. Many of these physicians came from or left for a hospital position, with the proportion entering academic hospital institutions increasing in recent years. In many cases, physicians left or entered internal medicine clinical practices. Conclusion At present in Japan, the number of physicians who leave and the number who begin a position are almost the same; thus, some of the problems associated with physicians leaving are yet to become apparent. However, the fact that the retention period is shortening for younger physicians may represent a future problem for ensuring the quality of physicians in public health administration agencies. Possible strategies include: increasing the number of physicians entering positions; reducing the number leaving positions; and creating a system where physicians can easily reenter positions after leaving while also establishing a revolving door type of career development system, involving both public health departments and hospital clinical departments.

Abstract Background Japan has experienced two large changes which affect the supply and distribution of physicians. They are increases in medical school enrollment capacity and in the proportion of female physicians. The purpose of this study is to estimate the future supply of physicians by specialty and to predict the associated impact of increased female physicians, as well as to discuss the possible policy implications. Methods Based on data from the 2004 and 2006 National Survey of Physicians, Dentists and Pharmacists, we estimated the future supply of physicians by specialty, using multistate life tables. Based on possible scenarios of the future increase in female physicians, we also estimated the supply of physicians by specialty. Results Even if Japan's current medical school enrollment capacity is maintained in subsequent years, the number of physicians per 1000 population is expected to increase from 2.2 in 2006 to 3.2 in 2036, which is a 46% increase from the current level. The numbers of obstetrician/gynecologists (OB/GYNs) and surgeons are expected to temporarily decline from their current level, whereas the number of OB/GYNs per 1000 births will still increase because of the declining number of births. The number of surgeons per 1000 population, even with the decreasing population, will decline temporarily over the next few years. If the percentage of female physicians continues to increase, the overall number of physicians will not be significantly affected, but in specialties with current very low female physician participation rates, such as surgery, the total number of physicians is expected to decline significantly. Conclusion At the current medical school enrollment capacity, the number of physicians per population is expected to continue to increase because of the skewed age distribution of physicians and the declining population in Japan. However, with changes in young physicians' choices of medical specialties and as the percentage of female physicians increases, patterns of physician supply will vary between specialties. Specialties less often chosen by young physicians and where males have dominated will face a decline in physician supply. These results highlight the necessity for developing a work environment that attracts female physicians to these types of specialties. This will also lead to improved gender equality in the workforce and more effective use of human resources.

Abstract Background Although the fecal occult blood test (FOBT) is the preferred program for colorectal cancer screening in Japan, many medical institutions have recently begun to provide total colonoscopy (TCS) as an initial screening program. However, there are a number of severe risks associated with TCS, such as colorectal bleeding and perforation. The justification for performing such a procedure on healthy patients remains unclear. We used the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) to investigate whether risk information on TCS affects patient preferences for colorectal cancer screening. Methods We performed a questionnaire survey using an AHP decision-making model, targeting 285 people aged 40–59 years. We randomly assigned the subjects into Groups A (n = 146) and B (n = 139). Both groups were provided with information on the effectiveness, cost and disadvantages of the two screening programs. Group A was provided with additional information regarding the risks of TCS. Individual priorities were calculated with pair-wise comparisons between the two alternatives in each selection criteria. The influence of the risk information was analyzed using a logistic regression analysis. Results The aggregated priorities in Group A for 'effectiveness', 'costs', and 'risks' were 0.603, 0.147, and 0.250, respectively, while those in Group B were 0.652, 0.149, and 0.199, respectively. A logistic regression analysis showed that the provision of risk information significantly reduced the subjects' priorities for TCS (p = 0.036). Conclusion The lack of risk information was related to the differences in priorities assigned to effectiveness and risks of the two procedures. Patients must be well informed before making decisions concerning their preferred colorectal cancer screening procedure.

Abstract Background The application of Willingness To Pay (WTP) measurement with Contingent Valuation Method (CVM) to medical services is gradually increasing. Knowing what influences WTP is an important matter because validity of CVM in medical services remains controversial. The objective of this survey is to measure WTP for the treatment of typical acute illnesses and to analyze the factors affecting WTP. Methods A questionnaire survey was conducted over the Internet, in which 795 men and women between 40 and 59 years old responded to questions about WTP for medical expenses in three hypothetical scenarios: common cold (CC), retinal detachment (RD) and myocardiac infarction (MI). Results Mean WTP was $29.9 for CC, $2,233 for RD, and $8,976 for MI. WTP for RD and MI was lower in the low-income group. While WTP for CC did not vary with income, WTP was higher in groups whose current subjective fitness levels were low. Conclusion Although WTP measurements are criticized frequently for their validity and reliability, they are still useful for determining the economic value of medical services. Based on the results of this study, it is deemed necessary to enhance safety nets for low-income earners in regards to serious illnesses that incur high medical expenses. Further, it is recommended that the rate of co-payments be set relatively high with respect to mild illnesses for which alternative services are available.