Search

Background Hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) is a common illness in young children. A monovalent vaccine has been developed in China protecting against enterovirus-71, bivalent vaccines preventing HFMD caused by two viruses are under development. Objective To predict and compare the incidence of HFMD under different vaccination scenarios in China. Methods We developed a compartmental model to capture enterovirus transmission and the natural history of HFMD in children aged 0–5, and calibrated to reported cases in the same age-group from 2015 to 2018. We compared the following vaccination scenarios: different combinations of monovalent and bivalent vaccine; a program of constant vaccination to that of pulse vaccination prior to seasonal outbreaks. Results We estimate 1,982,819, 2,258,846, 1,948,522 and 2,398,566 cases from 2015 to 2018. Increased coverage of monovalent vaccine from 0 to 80% is predicted to decrease the cases by 797,262 (49.1%). Use of bivalent vaccine at an 80% coverage level would decrease the cases by 828,560. Use of a 2.0× pulse vaccination for the bivalent vaccine in addition to 80% coverage would reduce cases by over one million. The estimated R0 for HFMD in 2015–2018 was 1.08, 1.10, 1.35 and 1.17. Conclusions Our results point to the benefit of bivalent vaccine and using a pulse vaccination in specific months over routine vaccination. Other ways to control HFMD include isolation of patients in the early stage of dissemination, more frequent hand-washing and ventilation, and better treatment options for patients.

Background Despite the high number of chikungunya cases in Indonesia in recent years, comprehensive epidemiological data are lacking. The systematic review was undertaken to provide data on incidence, the seroprevalence of anti-Chikungunya virus (CHIKV) IgM and IgG antibodies, mortality, the genotypes of circulating CHIKV and travel-related cases of chikungunya in the country. In addition, a phylogenetic and evolutionary analysis of Indonesian CHIKV was conducted. Methods A systematic review was conducted to identify eligible studies from EMBASE, MEDLINE, PubMed and Web of Science as of October 16th 2017. Studies describing the incidence, seroprevalence of IgM and IgG, mortality, genotypes and travel-associated chikungunya were systematically reviewed. The maximum likelihood phylogenetic and evolutionary rate was estimated using Randomized Axelerated Maximum Likelihood (RAxML), and the Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method identified the Time to Most Recent Common Ancestors (TMRCA) of Indonesian CHIKV. The systematic review was registered in the PROSPERO database (CRD42017078205). Results Chikungunya incidence ranged between 0.16-36.2 cases per 100,000 person-year. Overall, the median seroprevalence of anti-CHIKV IgM antibodies in both outbreak and non-outbreak scenarios was 13.3% (17.7 and 7.3% for outbreak and non-outbreak events, respectively). The median seroprevalence of IgG antibodies in both outbreak and non-outbreak settings was 18.5% (range 0.0–73.1%). There were 130 Indonesian CHIKV sequences available, of which 120 (92.3%) were of the Asian genotype and 10 (7.7%) belonged to the East/Central/South African (ECSA) genotype. The ECSA genotype was first isolated in Indonesia in 2008 and was continually sampled until 2011. All ECSA viruses sampled in Indonesia appear to be closely related to viruses that caused massive outbreaks in Southeast Asia countries during the same period. Massive nationwide chikungunya outbreaks in Indonesia were reported during 2009–2010 with a total of 137,655 cases. Our spatio-temporal, phylogenetic and evolutionary data suggest that these outbreaks were likely associated with the introduction of the ECSA genotype of CHIKV to Indonesia. Conclusions Although no deaths have been recorded, the seroprevalence of anti-CHIKV IgM and IgG in the Indonesian population have been relatively high in recent years following re-emergence in early 2001. There is sufficient evidence to suggest that the introduction of ECSA into Indonesia was likely associated with massive chikungunya outbreaks during 2009–2010. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (10.1186/s12879-019-3857-y) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Background The bacteria Streptococcus pneumoniae (pneumococcus) and Haemophilus influenzae type b (Hib) are leading causes of childhood pneumonia and meningitis and are major contributors to worldwide mortality in children younger than 5 years of age. Asymptomatic nasopharyngeal carriage of pneumococcus and Hib was determined for healthy children in Shanghai in 2009. Methods Children from 5 immunization clinics were enrolled in this study. Specimens from the nasopharynx were collected and cultured in Columbia and chocolate agar to identify pneumococcal and Hib carriage. Pneumococcal specimens were serotyped with the Neufeld test, and antibiotic resistance for pneumococcal and Hib specimens used the E-test method. Significance of risk factors for carriage was assessed through chi-square tests. Results Among 614 children, 16.6 % had pneumococcal carriage and 8.0 % Hib carriage. The predominant serotype of pneumococcus that was isolated was 19 F (52.9 %); serotype coverage was 68.6 % for both 7-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV) and PCV-10, and 82.3 % for PCV-13. Household residency and father’s education were both significantly related to pneumococcal and Hib carriage. The majority of S. pneumoniae isolates were sensitive to most antimicrobials but there were high levels of resistance to azithromycin (51.0 %) and erythromycin (51.0 %). Haemophilus influenzae isolates were sensitive to almost all antimicrobials tested although 12.2 % of isolates were resistant to ampicillin. Conclusions The pneumococcal and Hib vaccines require payment, and the children with the highest burden of disease may not be receiving these vaccines. Moreover, the presence of high antibiotic susceptibility towards pneumococcus, and to a lesser extent towards Hib, underscores the need for preventive protection against these diseases. Public funding of pneumococcal and Hib vaccines would be one mechanism to increase uptake of these vaccines.

Background Sustained civil and military conflict, resulting in large numbers of internally displaced persons (IDP), in combination with rapid urbanization has strained public health and sanitation within cities in Afghanistan. In order to examine the association between preventive sanitary behaviors and diarrhea within two high risk settings located within Kabul, Afghanistan, this study aimed to evaluate the prevalence of hygienic practices and diarrheal illness in an IDP camp and an urban slum. Methods In this cross sectional study, a convenience sample of residents of an IDP camp and an urban slum in Kabul, Afghanistan, was used. Participants were asked to describe their hygienic practices and interviewers independently documented household sanitation. The knowledge and attitudes about and practice of hygienic activities to prevent diarrhea were compared between the two settings. Results Two hundred participants, 100 from each setting, were enrolled. Knowledge, attitudes, and practices regarding hygienic activities to prevent diarrhea were greater among the slum dwellers than the IDP. Fewer than half of participants washed their hands with soap before eating or after eating: 31 % of slum dwellers washed before eating compared to 11 % of IDPs (P = 0.0050), and 25 % of slum dwellers washed after defecating compared to 4 % of IDPs (P = 0.0020). The IDPs were more likely to share a latrine (P = 0.0144) and less likely to disinfect their latrine than slum dwellers. Diarrhea in the household within the past 3 months was more common in the IDP camp (54 %) than the slum (20 %) (P = 0.0020). Conclusions Even though certain sanitary and hygienic practices were more common among slum dwellers than IDPs, the lack of hygienic activities in both setting indicates that interventions to change behavior, like increasing the availability of soap and encouraging hand washing, are needed. Any initiative will have to be developed in the context of pervasive illiteracy among persons in both of these settings. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12879-016-1789-3) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.