1. Possibility of mpox viral transmission and control from high-risk to the general population: a modeling study
- Author
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Shiting Yang, Xiaohao Guo, Zeyu Zhao, Buasiyamu Abudunaibi, Yunkang Zhao, Jia Rui, Yao Wang, Wentao Song, Hongjie Wei, and Tianmu Chen
- Subjects
Mpox virus ,SEIR model ,Transmissibility ,Intervention ,Infectious and parasitic diseases ,RC109-216 - Abstract
Abstract Background Mpox is an emerging infectious disease that is now a global hazard. The strategies for preventing and controlling mpox should be further investigated in terms of transmission characteristics, infection risk among different populations, and ideal therapeutic approaches. Methods A multi-group dynamic model was used to quantify the transmissibility of mpox. We further analyzed the transmission risk from men who have sex with men (MSM) to non-MSM and evaluated the effects of three intervention measures, including community-based prevention, early detection, and vaccination. Results The median value of effective reproduction number (R eff ) and probability of contact via a single contact (q) among MSM worldwide is 3.11 (interquartile range [IQR]: 2.82–5.57) and 2.15% (IQR: 1.95–3.84%). We found that the cumulative incidence rate of non-MSM is much lower than that of MSM ( more...
- Published
- 2023
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