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Background: Recurrence continues to place significant burden on patients and tuberculosis programmes worldwide, and previous studies have rarely provided analysis in negative recurrence cases. We characterized the epidemiological features of recurrent pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB) patients, estimated its probability associated with different bacteriology results and risk factors.Methods: Using 2005-2018 provincial surveillance data from Henan, China, where the permanent population approximately were 100 million, we described the epidemiological and bacteriological features of recurrent PTB. The Kaplan-Meier method and Cox proportional hazard models, respectively, were used to estimate probability of recurrent PTB and risk factors.Results: A total of 7143 (1.5%) PTB patients had recurrence, and of 21.1% were bacteriological positive on both laboratory tests (positive-positive), and of 34.9% were negative-negative. Compared with bacteriological negative recurrent PTB at first episodes, the bacteriological positive cases were more male (81.70% vs 72.79%; P < 0.001), higher mortality risk (1.78% vs 0.92%; P = 0.003), lower proportion of cured or completed treatment (82.81% vs 84.97%; P = 0.022), and longer time from onset to end-of-treatment. The probability of recurrence was higher in bacteriological positive cases than those in bacteriological negative cases (0.5% vs 0.4% at 20 months; P < 0.05).Conclusions: Based on patient's epidemiological characteristics and bacteriological type, it was necessary to actively enact measures to control their recurrent. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: To quantitatively evaluate the effectiveness of Fangcang shelter hospitals, designated hospitals, and the time interval from illness onset to diagnosis toward the prevention and control of the COVID-19 epidemic.Methods: We used SEIAR and SEIA-CQFH warehouse models to simulate the two-period epidemic in Wuhan and calculate the time dependent basic reproduction numbers (BRNs) of symptomatic infected individuals, asymptomatic infected individuals, exposed individuals, and community-isolated infected individuals. Scenarios that varied in terms of the maximum numbers of open beds in Fangcang shelter hospitals and designated hospitals, and the time intervals from illness onset to hospitals visit and diagnosis were considered to quantitatively assess the optimal measures.Results: The BRN decreased from 4.50 on Jan 22, 2020 to 0.18 on March 18, 2020. Without Fangcang shelter hospitals, the cumulative numbers of cases and deaths would increase by 18.58 and 51.73%, respectively. If the number of beds in the designated hospitals decreased by 1/2 and 1/4, the number of cumulative cases would increase by 178.04 and 92.1%, respectively. If the time interval from illness onset to hospital visit was 4 days, the number of cumulative cases and deaths would increase by 2.79 and 6.19%, respectively. If Fangcang shelter hospitals were not established, the number of beds in designated hospitals reduced 1/4, and the time interval from visiting hospitals to diagnosis became 4 days, the cumulative number of cases would increase by 268.97%.Conclusion: The declining BRNs indicate the high effectiveness of the joint measures. The joint measures led by Fangcang shelter hospitals are crucial and need to be rolled out globally, especially when medical resources are limited. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]