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Background: Many countries have introduced reforms with the aim of primary care transformation (PCT). Common objectives include meeting service delivery challenges associated with ageing populations and health inequalities. To date, there has been little research comparing PCT internationally. Our aim was to examine PCT and new models of primary care by conducting a systematic scoping review of international literature in order to describe major policy changes including key 'components', impacts of new models of care, and barriers and facilitators to PCT implementation., Methods: We undertook a systematic scoping review of international literature on PCT in OECD countries and China (published protocol: https://osf.io/2afym ). Ovid [MEDLINE/Embase/Global Health], CINAHL Plus, and Global Index Medicus were searched (01/01/10 to 28/08/21). Two reviewers independently screened the titles and abstracts with data extraction by a single reviewer. A narrative synthesis of findings followed., Results: A total of 107 studies from 15 countries were included. The most frequently employed component of PCT was the expansion of multidisciplinary teams (MDT) (46% of studies). The most frequently measured outcome was GP views (27%), with  < 20% measuring patient views or satisfaction. Only three studies evaluated the effects of PCT on ageing populations and 34 (32%) on health inequalities with ambiguous results. For the latter, PCT involving increased primary care access showed positive impacts whilst no benefits were reported for other components. Analysis of 41 studies citing barriers or facilitators to PCT implementation identified leadership, change, resources, and targets as key themes., Conclusions: Countries identified in this review have used a range of approaches to PCT with marked heterogeneity in methods of evaluation and mixed findings on impacts. Only a minority of studies described the impacts of PCT on ageing populations, health inequalities, or from the patient perspective. The facilitators and barriers identified may be useful in planning and evaluating future developments in PCT., (© 2023. BioMed Central Ltd., part of Springer Nature.)

Background: Measurement of multimorbidity in research is variable, including the choice of the data source used to ascertain conditions. We compared the estimated prevalence of multimorbidity and associations with mortality using different data sources., Methods: A cross-sectional study of SAIL Databank data including 2,340,027 individuals of all ages living in Wales on 01 January 2019. Comparison of prevalence of multimorbidity and constituent 47 conditions using data from primary care (PC), hospital inpatient (HI), and linked PC-HI data sources and examination of associations between condition count and 12-month mortality., Results: Using linked PC-HI compared with only HI data, multimorbidity was more prevalent (32.2% versus 16.5%), and the population of people identified as having multimorbidity was younger (mean age 62.5 versus 66.8 years) and included more women (54.2% versus 52.6%). Individuals with multimorbidity in both PC and HI data had stronger associations with mortality than those with multimorbidity only in HI data (adjusted odds ratio 8.34 [95% CI 8.02-8.68] versus 6.95 (95%CI 6.79-7.12] in people with ≥ 4 conditions). The prevalence of conditions identified using only PC versus only HI data was significantly higher for 37/47 and significantly lower for 10/47: the highest PC/HI ratio was for depression (14.2 [95% CI 14.1-14.4]) and the lowest for aneurysm (0.51 [95% CI 0.5-0.5]). Agreement in ascertainment of conditions between the two data sources varied considerably, being slight for five (kappa < 0.20), fair for 12 (kappa 0.21-0.40), moderate for 16 (kappa 0.41-0.60), and substantial for 12 (kappa 0.61-0.80) conditions, and by body system was lowest for mental and behavioural disorders. The percentage agreement, individuals with a condition identified in both PC and HI data, was lowest in anxiety (4.6%) and highest in coronary artery disease (62.9%)., Conclusions: The use of single data sources may underestimate prevalence when measuring multimorbidity and many important conditions (especially mental and behavioural disorders). Caution should be used when interpreting findings of research examining individual and multiple long-term conditions using single data sources. Where available, researchers using electronic health data should link primary care and hospital inpatient data to generate more robust evidence to support evidence-based healthcare planning decisions for people with multimorbidity., (© 2023. BioMed Central Ltd., part of Springer Nature.)

Background: Severe mental illness (SMI), comprising schizophrenia, bipolar disorder and major depression, is associated with higher myocardial infarction (MI) mortality but lower coronary revascularisation rates. Previous studies have largely focused on schizophrenia, with limited information on bipolar disorder and major depression, long-term mortality or the effects of either sociodemographic factors or year of MI. We investigated the associations between SMI and MI prognosis and how these differed by age at MI, sex and year of MI., Methods: We conducted a national retrospective cohort study, including adults with a hospitalised MI in Scotland between 1991 and 2014. We ascertained previous history of schizophrenia, bipolar disorder and major depression from psychiatric and general hospital admission records. We used logistic regression to obtain odds ratios adjusted for sociodemographic factors for 30-day, 1-year and 5-year mortality, comparing people with each SMI to a comparison group without a prior hospital record for any mental health condition. We used Cox regression to analyse coronary revascularisation within 30 days, risk of further MI and further vascular events (MI or stroke). We investigated associations for interaction with age at MI, sex and year of MI., Results: Among 235,310 people with MI, 923 (0.4%) had schizophrenia, 642 (0.3%) had bipolar disorder and 6239 (2.7%) had major depression. SMI was associated with higher 30-day, 1-year and 5-year mortality and risk of further MI and stroke. Thirty-day mortality was higher for schizophrenia (OR 1.95, 95% CI 1.64-2.30), bipolar disorder (OR 1.53, 95% CI 1.26-1.86) and major depression (OR 1.31, 95% CI 1.23-1.40). Odds ratios for 1-year and 5-year mortality were larger for all three conditions. Revascularisation rates were lower in schizophrenia (HR 0.57, 95% CI 0.48-0.67), bipolar disorder (HR 0.69, 95% CI 0.56-0.85) and major depression (HR 0.78, 95% CI 0.73-0.83). Mortality and revascularisation disparities persisted from 1991 to 2014, with absolute mortality disparities more apparent for MIs that occurred around 70 years of age, the overall mean age of MI. Women with major depression had a greater reduction in revascularisation than men with major depression., Conclusions: There are sustained SMI disparities in MI intervention and prognosis. There is an urgent need to understand and tackle the reasons for these disparities.

Background: Research comparing sex differences in the effects of antipsychotic medications on acute ischemic heart disease (IHD) is limited and the findings ambiguous. This study aimed to investigate these associations within a primary care setting., Methods: Hong Kong public general outpatient electronic records of patients aged 45+ during 2007-2010 were extracted, with the last consultation date as the baseline for a 4-year follow-up period to observe acute IHD hospitalizations (2011-2014). Antipsychotic use was defined as any prescription over the previous 12 months from a list of 16 antipsychotics, while acute IHD was defined by ICD-9: 410.00-411.89. Both sex-specific and sex-combined (both sexes) mixed-effects Cox models (random intercept across 74 clinics) were implemented to examine the association and test the interaction between antipsychotics and sex., Results: Among 1,043,236 included patients, 17,780 (1.7%) were prescribed antipsychotics, and 8342 (0.8%) developed IHD. In sex-specific analyses, antipsychotic prescription was associated with a 32% increased hazard rate of acute IHD among women (95% CI 1.05-1.67) but not among men. A likelihood ratio test comparing sex-combined models with and without the interaction between antipsychotic use and sex suggested significant interaction (χ 2  = 4.72, P = 0.030). The association between antipsychotic use and IHD among women attenuated and became non-significant when haloperidol was omitted from the operationalization of antipsychotic use (HR = 1.23, 95% CI 0.95-1.60)., Conclusion: Our results suggest that antipsychotic prescription is moderately associated with an increased risk of acute IHD among women in primary care and this relationship may be explained by specific antipsychotics. Further research should observe and capture the potential intermediary mechanisms and the dose-response relationship of this association to provide more rigorous evidence to establish causality and inform clinical practices.

Background: Multimorbidity is a major challenge to health systems globally and disproportionately affects socioeconomically disadvantaged populations. We examined socioeconomic inequalities in developing multimorbidity across the lifecourse and investigated the contribution of five behaviour-related risk factors., Methods: The Twenty-07 study recruited participants aged approximately 15, 35, and 55 years in 1987 and followed them up over 20 years. The primary outcome was development of multimorbidity (2+ health conditions). The relationship between five different risk factors (smoking, alcohol consumption, diet, body mass index (BMI), physical activity) and the development of multimorbidity was assessed. Social patterning in the development of multimorbidity based on two measures of socioeconomic status (area-based deprivation and household income) was then determined, followed by investigation of potential mediation by the five risk factors. Multilevel logistic regression models and predictive margins were used for statistical analyses. Socioeconomic inequalities in multimorbidity were quantified using relative indices of inequality and attenuation assessed through addition of risk factors., Results: Multimorbidity prevalence increased markedly in all cohorts over the 20 years. Socioeconomic disadvantage was associated with increased risk of developing multimorbidity (most vs least deprived areas: odds ratio (OR) 1.46, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.26-1.68), and the risk was at least as great when assessed by income (OR 1.53, 95% CI 1.25-1.87) or when defining multimorbidity as 3+ conditions. Smoking (current vs never OR 1.56, 1.36-1.78), diet (no fruit/vegetable consumption in previous week vs consumption every day OR 1.57, 95% CI 1.33-1.84), and BMI (morbidly obese vs healthy weight OR 1.88, 95% CI 1.42-2.49) were strong independent predictors of developing multimorbidity. A dose-response relationship was observed with number of risk factors and subsequent multimorbidity (3+ risk factors vs none OR 1.91, 95% CI 1.57-2.33). However, the five risk factors combined explained only 40.8% of socioeconomic inequalities in multimorbidity development., Conclusions: Preventive measures addressing known risk factors, particularly obesity and smoking, could reduce the future multimorbidity burden. However, major socioeconomic inequalities in the development of multimorbidity exist even after taking account of known risk factors. Tackling social determinants of health, including holistic health and social care, is necessary if the rising burden of multimorbidity in disadvantaged populations is to be redressed.

Background: The inverse equity hypothesis asserts that new health policies initially widen inequality, then attenuate inequalities over time. Since 2004, the UK's pay-for-performance scheme for chronic disease management (CDM) in primary care general practices (the Quality and Outcomes Framework) has permitted practices to except (exclude) patients from attending annual CDM reviews, without financial penalty. Informed dissent (ID) is one component of exception rates, applied to patients who have not attended due to refusal or non-response to invitations. 'Population achievement' describes the proportion receiving care, in relation to those eligible to receive it, including excepted patients. Examination of exception reporting (including ID) and population achievement enables the equity impact of the UK pay-for-performance contract to be assessed. We conducted a longitudinal analysis of practice-level rates and of predictors of ID, overall exceptions and population achievement for CDM to examine whether the inverse equity hypothesis holds true., Methods: We carried out a retrospective, longitudinal study using routine primary care data, analysed by multilevel logistic regression. Data were extracted from 793 practices (83% of Scottish general practices) serving 4.4 million patients across Scotland from 2010/2011 to 2012/2013, for 29 CDM indicators covering 11 incentivised diseases. This provided 68,991 observations, representing a total of 15 million opportunities for exception reporting., Results: Across all observations, the median overall exception reporting rate was 7.0% (7.04% in 2010-2011; 7.02% in 2011-2012 and 6.92% in 2012-2013). The median non-attendance rate due to ID was 0.9% (0.76% in 2010-2011; 0.88% in 2011-2012 and 0.96% in 2012-2013). Median population achievement was 83.5% (83.51% in 2010-2011; 83.41% in 2011-2012 and 83.63% in 2012-2013). The odds of ID reporting in 2012/2013 were 16.0% greater than in 2010/2011 (p < 0.001). Practices in Scotland's most deprived communities were twice as likely to report non-attendance due to ID (odds ratio 2.10, 95% confidence interval 1.83-2.40, p < 0.001) compared with those in the least deprived; rural practices reported lower levels of non-attendance due to ID. These predictors were also independently associated with overall exceptions. Rates of population achievement did not change over time, with higher levels (higher remuneration) associated with increased rates of overall and ID exception and more affluent practices., Conclusions: Non-attendance for CDM due to ID has risen over time, and higher rates are seen in patients from practices located in disadvantaged areas. This suggests that CDM incentivisation does not conform to the inverse equity hypothesis, because inequalities are widening over time with lower uptake of anticipatory care health checks and CDM reviews noted among those most in need. Incentivised CDM needs to include incentives for engaging with the 'hard to reach' if inequalities in healthcare delivery are to be tackled.

Background: Multimorbidity is common in deprived communities and reduces quality of life. Our aim was to evaluate a whole-system primary care-based complex intervention, called CARE Plus, to improve quality of life in multimorbid patients living in areas of very high deprivation., Methods: We used a phase 2 exploratory cluster randomised controlled trial with eight general practices in Glasgow in very deprived areas that involved multimorbid patients aged 30-65 years. The intervention comprised structured longer consultations, relationship continuity, practitioner support, and self-management support. Control practices continued treatment as usual. Primary outcomes were quality of life (EQ-5D-5L utility scores) and well-being (W-BQ12; 3 domains). Cost-effectiveness from a health service perspective, engagement, and retention were assessed. Recruitment and baseline measurements occurred prior to randomisation. Blinding post-randomisation was not possible but outcome measurement and analysis were masked. Analyses were by intention to treat., Results: Of 76 eligible practices contacted, 12 accepted, and eight were selected, randomised and participated for the duration of the trial. Of 225 eligible patients, 152 (68 %) participated and 67/76 (88 %) in each arm completed the 12-month assessment. Two patients died in the control group. CARE Plus significantly improved one domain of well-being (negative well-being), with an effect size of 0.33 (95 % confidence interval [CI] 0.11-0.55) at 12 months (p = 0.0036). Positive well-being, energy, and general well-being (the combined score of the three components) were not significantly influenced by the intervention at 12 months. EQ-5D-5L area under the curve over the 12 months was higher in the CARE Plus group (p = 0.002). The incremental cost in the CARE Plus group was £929 (95 % CI: £86-£1788) per participant with a gain in quality-adjusted life years of 0.076 (95 % CI: 0.028-0.124) over the 12 months of the trial, resulting in a cost-effectiveness ratio of £12,224 per quality-adjusted life year gained. Modelling suggested that cost-effectiveness would continue., Conclusions: It is feasible to conduct a high-quality cluster randomised control trial of a complex intervention with multimorbid patients in primary care in areas of very high deprivation. Enhancing primary care through a whole-system approach may be a cost-effective way to protect quality of life for multimorbid patients in deprived areas., Trial Registration: ISRCTN 34092919 , assigned 14/1/2013.

Background: China, like other countries, is facing a growing burden of chronic disease but the prevalence of multimorbidity and implications for the healthcare system have been little researched. We examined the epidemiology of multimorbidity in southern China in a large representative sample. The effects of multimorbidity and other factors on usual source of healthcare were also examined., Methods: We conducted a large cross-sectional survey among approximately 5% (N = 162,464) of the resident population in three prefectures in Guangdong province, southern China in 2011. A multistage, stratified random sampling was adopted. The study population had many similar characteristics to the national census population. Interviewer-administered questionnaires were used to collect self-report data on demographics, socio-economics, lifestyles, healthcare use, and health characteristics from paper-based medical reports., Results: More than one in ten of the total study population (11.1%, 95% confidence interval (CI) 10.6 to 11.6) had two or more chronic conditions from a selection of 40 morbidities. The prevalence of multimorbidity increased with age (adjusted odds ratio (aOR) = 1.36, 95% CI 1.35 to 1.38 per five years). Female gender (aOR = 1.70, 95% CI 1.64 to 1.76), low education (aOR = 1.26, 95% CI 1.23 to 1.29), lack of medical insurance (aOR = 1.79, 95% CI 1.71 to 1.89), and unhealthy lifestyle behaviours were independent predictors of multimorbidity. Multimorbidity was associated with the regular use of secondary outpatient care in preference to primary care., Conclusions: Multimorbidity is now common in China. The reported preferential use of secondary care over primary care by patients with multimorbidity has many major implications. There is an urgent need to further develop a strong and equitable primary care system.

Background: Visual impairment is common in older people and the presence of additional health conditions can compromise health and rehabilitation outcomes. A small number of studies have suggested that comorbities are common in visual impairment; however, those studies have relied on self-report and have assessed a relatively limited number of comorbid conditions., Methods: We conducted a cross-sectional analysis of a dataset of 291,169 registered patients (65-years-old and over) within 314 primary care practices in Scotland, UK. Visual impairment was identified using Read Code ever recorded for blindness and/or low vision (within electronic medical records). Prevalence, odds ratios (from prevalence rates standardised by stratifying individuals by age groups (65 to 69 years; 70 to 74; 75 to 79; 80 to 84; and 85 and over), gender and deprivation quintiles) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) of 37 individual chronic physical/mental health conditions and total number of conditions were calculated and compared for those with visual impairment to those without., Results: Twenty seven of the 29 physical health conditions and all eight mental health conditions were significantly more likely to be recorded for individuals with visual impairment compared to individuals without visual impairment, after standardising for age, gender and social deprivation. Individuals with visual impairment were also significantly more likely to have more comorbidities (for example, five or more conditions (odds ratio (OR) 2.05 95% CI 1.94 to 2.18))., Conclusions: Patients aged 65 years and older with visual impairment have a broad range of physical and mental health comorbidities compared to those of the same age without visual impairment, and are more likely to have multiple comorbidities. This has important implications for clinical practice and for the future design of integrated services to meet the complex needs of patients with visual impairment, for example, embedding depression and hearing screening within eye care services.

Background: The prevalence of multimorbidity (the presence of two or more long-term conditions) is rising internationally. Multimorbidity affects patients by increasing their burden of symptoms, but is also likely to increase the self-care demands, or treatment burden, that they experience. Treatment burden refers to the effort expended in operationalising treatments, navigating healthcare systems and managing relations with healthcare providers. This is an important problem for people with chronic illness such as stroke. Polypharmacy is an important marker of both multimorbidity and burden of treatment. In this study, we examined the prevalence of multimorbidity and polypharmacy in a large, nationally representative population of primary care patients with and without stroke, adjusting for age, sex and deprivation., Methods: A cross-sectional study of 1,424,378 participants aged 18 years and over, from 314 primary care practices in Scotland that were known to be demographically representative of the Scottish adult population. Data included information on the presence of stroke and another 39 long-term conditions, plus prescriptions for regular medications., Results: In total, 35,690 people (2.5%) had a diagnosis of stroke. Of the 39 comorbidities examined, 35 were significantly more common in people with stroke. Of the people with a stroke, the proportion that had one or more additional morbidities present (94.2%) was almost twice that in the control group (48%) (odds ratio (OR) adjusted for age, sex and socioeconomic deprivation 5.18; 95% confidence interval (CI) 4.95 to 5.43). In the stroke group, 12.6% had a record of 11 or more repeat prescriptions compared with only 1.5% of the control group (OR adjusted for age, sex, deprivation and morbidity count 15.84; 95% CI 14.86 to 16.88). Limitations include the use of data collected for clinical rather than research purposes, a lack of consensus in the literature on the definition of certain long-term conditions, and the absence of statistical weighting in the measurement of multimorbidity, although the latter was deemed suitable for descriptive analyses., Conclusions: Multimorbidity and polypharmacy were strikingly more common in those with a diagnosis of stroke compared with those without. This has important implications for clinical guidelines and the design of health services.

Background: Individuals with serious mental disorders experience poor physical health, especially increased rates of cardiometabolic morbidity and premature morbidity. Recent evidence suggests that individuals with schizophrenia have numerous comorbid physical conditions that may be under-recorded and undertreated, but to date very few studies have explored this issue for bipolar disorder., Methods: We conducted a cross-sectional analysis of a dataset of 1,751,841 registered patients within 314 primary care practices in Scotland, UK. Bipolar disorder was identified using Read Codes recorded within electronic medical records. Data on 32 common chronic physical conditions were also assessed. Potential prescribing inequalities were evaluated by analysing prescribing data for coronary heart disease (CHD) and hypertension., Results: Compared to controls, individuals with bipolar disorder were significantly less likely to have no recorded physical conditions (OR 0.59, 95% CI 0.54 to 0.63) and significantly more likely to have one physical condition (OR 1.27, 95% CI 1.16 to 1.39), two physical conditions (OR 1.45, 95% CI 1.30 to 1.62) and three or more physical conditions (OR 1.44, 95% CI 1.30 to 1.64). People with bipolar disorder also had higher rates of thyroid disorders, chronic kidney disease, chronic pain, chronic obstructive airways disease and diabetes but, surprisingly, lower recorded rates of hypertension and atrial fibrillation. People with bipolar disorder and comorbid CHD or hypertension were significantly more likely to be prescribed no antihypertensive or cholesterol-lowering medications compared to controls, and bipolar individuals with CHD or hypertension were significantly less likely to be on two or more antihypertensive agents., Conclusions: Individuals with bipolar disorder are similar to individuals with schizophrenia in having a wide range of comorbid and multiple physical health conditions. They are also less likely than controls to have a primary-care record of cardiovascular conditions such as hypertension and atrial fibrillation. Those with a recorded diagnosis of CHD or hypertension were less likely to be treated with cardiovascular medications and were treated less intensively. This study highlights the high physical healthcare needs of people with bipolar disorder, and provides evidence for a systematic under-recognition and undertreatment of cardiovascular disease in this group.