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Abstract Background Recently, several novel RSV immunisation products that protect infants and older adults against RSV disease have been licensed in Europe. We estimated the effectiveness and efficiency of introducing these RSV immunisation strategies in Germany. Methods We used a Bayesian framework to fit a deterministic age-structured dynamic transmission model of RSV to sentinel surveillance and RSV-specific hospitalisation data in Germany from 2015 to 2019. The calibrated model was used to evaluate different RSV intervention strategies over 5 years: long-acting, single-dose monoclonal antibodies (mAbs) in high-risk infants aged 1–5 months; long-acting mAbs in all infants aged 1–5 months; seasonal vaccination of pregnant women and one-time seasonal vaccination of older adults (75 + /65 + /55 + years). We performed sensitivity analysis on vaccine uptake, seasonal vs. year-round maternal vaccination, and the effect of under-ascertainment for older adults. Results The model was able to match the various RSV datasets. Replacing the current short-acting mAB for high-risk infants with long-acting mAbs prevented 1.1% of RSV-specific hospitalisations in infants per year at the same uptake. Expanding the long-acting mAB programme to all infants prevented 39.3% of infant hospitalisations per year. Maternal vaccination required a larger number to be immunised to prevent one additional hospitalisation than a long-acting mAB for the same uptake. Vaccination of adults older than 75 years at an uptake of 40% in addition to Nirsevimab in all infants prevented an additional 4.5% of all RSV hospitalisations over 5 years, with substantial uncertainty in the correction for under-ascertainment of the RSV burden. Conclusions Immunisation has the potential to reduce the RSV disease burden in Germany.

Abstract Background This study applies an umbrella review approach to summarise the global evidence on the risk of severe COVID-19 outcomes in patients with pre-existing health conditions. Methods Systematic reviews (SRs) were identified in PubMed, Embase/Medline and seven pre-print servers until December 11, 2020. Due to the absence of age-adjusted risk effects stratified by geographical regions, a re-analysis of the evidence was conducted. Primary studies were extracted from SRs and evaluated for inclusion in the re-analysis. Studies were included if they reported risk estimates (odds ratio (OR), hazard ratio (HR), relative risk (RR)) for hospitalisation, intensive care unit admission, intubation or death. Estimated associations were extracted from the primary studies for reported pre-existing conditions. Meta-analyses were performed stratified for each outcome by regions of the World Health Organization. The evidence certainty was assessed using GRADE. Registration number CRD42020215846. Results In total, 160 primary studies from 120 SRs contributed 464 estimates for 42 pre-existing conditions. Most studies were conducted in North America, European, and Western Pacific regions. Evidence from Africa, South/Latin America, and the Eastern Mediterranean region was scarce. No evidence was available from the South-East Asia region. Diabetes (HR range 1.2–2.0 (CI range 1.1–2.8)), obesity (OR range 1.5–1.75 (CI range 1.1–2.3)), heart failure (HR range 1.3–3.3 (CI range 0.9–8.2)), COPD (HR range 1.12–2.2 (CI range 1.1–3.2)) and dementia (HR range 1.4–7.7 (CI range 1.2–39.6)) were associated with fatal COVID-19 in different regions, although the estimates varied. Evidence from Europe and North America showed that liver cirrhosis (OR range 3.2–5.9 (CI range 0.9–27.7)) and active cancer (OR range 1.6–4.7 (CI range 0.5–14.9)) were also associated with increased risk of death. Association between HIV and undesirable COVID-19 outcomes showed regional heterogeneity, with an increased risk of death in Africa (HR 1.7 (CI 1.3–2.2)). GRADE certainty was moderate to high for most associations. Conclusion Risk of undesirable COVID-19 health outcomes is consistently increased in certain patient subgroups across geographical regions, showing high variability in others. The results can be used to inform COVID-19 vaccine prioritisation or other intervention strategies.

Abstract Background Human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination is safe and effective in preventing cervical cancer in females. As HPV infections can also induce cancers of the anus, penis and oral cavity, male vaccination is also advocated, but systematic reviews on efficacy and safety in males are lacking. Methods We performed a systematic review on the efficacy, effectiveness and safety of HPV vaccination in males of any age. MEDLINE, Embase, the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials and ClinicalTrials.gov were searched from inception to April 2017. Results We identified 5196 articles and seven studies (four randomized controlled trials (RCTs), three non-randomized studies) were included, comprising a total of 5294 participants. Vaccine efficacy against at least 6-month persisting anogenital HPV 16 infections was 46.9% (95% confidence interval (CI) 28.6–60.8%), whereas efficacy against persisting oral infections was 88% (2–98%). A vaccine efficacy of 61.9% (21.4–82.8%) and 46.8% (− 20 to –77.9%) was observed against anal intraepithelial neoplasia grade 2 and grade 3 lesions, respectively. No meaningful estimates were available on vaccine efficacy or effectiveness against penile intraepithelial neoplasia grade 2 or 3, and no data were identified for anal, penile or head and neck squamous cell cancer. In participants who were HPV-seronegative and PCR-negative at enrolment, efficacy against all outcomes was higher as compared to seropositive and/or PCR-positive individuals. Risk of bias was low in three RCTs and high in one, while the three non-randomized studies were at serious to critical risk of bias. Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluation evidence quality was moderate to low for most outcomes. Conclusions HPV vaccination in males is moderately effective against persistent anogenital HPV infection and high-grade anal intraepithelial lesions in studies where the population consists mainly of HPV-infected males. Vaccine effectiveness was high in study groups comprising HPV-naïve males. This supports a recommendation for vaccination of boys before the onset of sexual activity with the goal of establishing optimal vaccine-induced protection. Mathematical modelling studies will still be needed to assess the effects of adding males to existing HPV vaccination programs in females. Trial registration Prospective Register for Systematic Reviews (PROSPERO) registration CRD42016038965.

Abstract Background Epidemiological studies suggest that reduced exposure to varicella might lead to an increased risk for herpes zoster (HZ). Reduction of exposure to varicella is a consequence of varicella vaccination but also of demographic changes. We analyzed how the combination of vaccination programs and demographic dynamics will affect the epidemiology of varicella and HZ in Germany over the next 50 years. Methods We used a deterministic dynamic compartmental model to assess the impact of different varicella and HZ vaccination strategies on varicella and HZ epidemiology in three demographic scenarios, namely the projected population for Germany, the projected population additionally accounting for increased immigration as observed in 2015/2016, and a stationary population. Results Projected demographic changes alone result in an increase of annual HZ cases by 18.3% and a decrease of varicella cases by 45.7% between 1990 and 2060. Independently of the demographic scenario, varicella vaccination reduces the cumulative number of varicella cases until 2060 by approximately 70%, but also increases HZ cases by 10%. Unlike the currently licensed live attenuated HZ vaccine, the new subunit vaccine candidate might completely counteract this effect. Relative vaccine effects were consistent across all demographic scenarios. Conclusion Demographic dynamics will be a major determinant of HZ epidemiology in the next 50 years. While stationary population models are appropriate for assessing vaccination impact, models incorporating realistic population structures allow a direct comparison to surveillance data and can thus provide additional input for immunization decision-making and resource planning.