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Background:\ud \ud Recently, studies have examined the underlying patient and practice factors for missed appointments, but less is known about the impact on patient health. People with one or more long-term conditions who fail to attend appointments may be at risk of premature death. This is the first study to examine the effect of missed primary healthcare appointments on all-cause mortality in those with long-term mental and physical health conditions.\ud Methods:\ud \ud We used a large, nationwide retrospective cohort (n = 824,374) extracted from routinely collected general practice data across Scotland over a 3-year period from September 2013 until September 2016. This data encompasses appointment history for approximately 15% of the Scottish population, and was linked to Scottish deaths records for patients who had died within a 16-month follow-up period. We generated appointment attendance history, number of long-term conditions and prescriptions data for patients. These factors were used in negative binomial and Cox’s proportional hazards modelling to examine the risk of missing appointments and all-cause mortality.\ud Results:\ud \ud Patients with a greater number of long-term conditions had an increased risk of missing general practice appointments despite controlling for number of appointments made, particularly among patients with mental health conditions. These patients were at significantly greater risk of all-cause mortality, and showed a dose-based response with increasing number of missed appointments. Patients with long-term mental health conditions who missed more than two appointments per year had a greater than 8-fold increase in risk of all-cause mortality compared with those who missed no appointments. These patients died prematurely, commonly from non-natural external factors such as suicide.\ud Conclusions:\ud \ud Missed appointments represent a significant risk marker for all-cause mortality, particularly in patients with mental health conditions. For these patients, existing primary healthcare appointment systems are ineffective. Future interventions should be developed with a particular focus on increasing attendance by these patients.

BACKGROUND: The risk of psoriasis in patients with breast cancer is largely unknown, as available evidence is limited to case findings. We systematically examined the incidence and risk factors of psoriasis in patients with breast cancer. METHODS: A Swedish nationwide cohort of 56,235 breast cancer patients (2001-2012) was compared to 280,854 matched reference individuals from the general population to estimate the incidence and hazard ratio (HR) of new-onset psoriasis. We also calculated HRs for psoriasis according to treatment, genetic, and lifestyle factors in a regional cohort of 8987 patients. RESULTS: In the nationwide cohort, 599 patients with breast cancer were diagnosed with psoriasis during a median follow-up of 5.1 years compared to 2795 cases in the matched reference individuals. This corresponded to an incidence rate of 1.9/1000 person-years in breast cancer patients vs. 1.7/1000 person-years in matched reference individuals. Breast cancer patients were at an increased risk of psoriasis (HR = 1.17; 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.07-1.28), especially its most common subtype (psoriasis vulgaris; HR = 1.33; 95% CI = 1.17-1.52). The risk of psoriasis vulgaris was highest shortly after diagnosis but remained increased up to 12 years. Treatment-specific analyses indicated a higher risk of psoriasis in patients treated with radiotherapy (HR = 2.44; 95% CI = 1.44-4.12) and mastectomy (HR = 1.54, 95% CI = 1.03-2.31). Apart from treatment-specific effects, we identified genetic predisposition, obesity, and smoking as independent risk factors for psoriasis in breast cancer patients. CONCLUSIONS: The incidence of psoriasis is slightly elevated among patients with breast cancer, with treatment, lifestyle, and genetic factors defining the individual risk profile., Funding agencies:Swedish Initiative for research on Microdata in the Social and Medical Sciences (SIMSAM) 80748301 China Scholarship Council 201406010275 Ake Wiberg Foundation Ollie och Elof Ericssons Foundation for Scientific Research

Background The Framingham risk models and pooled cohort equations (PCE) are widely used and advocated in guidelines for predicting 10-year risk of developing coronary heart disease (CHD) and cardiovascular disease (CVD) in the general population. Over the past few decades, these models have been extensively validated within different populations, which provided mounting evidence that local tailoring is often necessary to obtain accurate predictions. The objective is to systematically review and summarize the predictive performance of three widely advocated cardiovascular risk prediction models (Framingham Wilson 1998, Framingham ATP III 2002 and PCE 2013) in men and women separately, to assess the generalizability of performance across different subgroups and geographical regions, and to determine sources of heterogeneity in the findings across studies. Methods A search was performed in October 2017 to identify studies investigating the predictive performance of the aforementioned models. Studies were included if they externally validated one or more of the original models in the general population for the same outcome as the original model. We assessed risk of bias for each validation and extracted data on population characteristics and model performance. Performance estimates (observed versus expected (OE) ratio and c-statistic) were summarized using a random effects models and sources of heterogeneity were explored with meta-regression. Results The search identified 1585 studies, of which 38 were included, describing a total of 112 external validations. Results indicate that, on average, all models overestimate the 10-year risk of CHD and CVD (pooled OE ratio ranged from 0.58 (95% CI 0.43–0.73; Wilson men) to 0.79 (95% CI 0.60–0.97; ATP III women)). Overestimation was most pronounced for high-risk individuals and European populations. Further, discriminative performance was better in women for all models. There was considerable heterogeneity in the c-statistic between studies, likely due to differences in population characteristics. Conclusions The Framingham Wilson, ATP III and PCE discriminate comparably well but all overestimate the risk of developing CVD, especially in higher risk populations. Because the extent of miscalibration substantially varied across settings, we highly recommend that researchers further explore reasons for overprediction and that the models be updated for specific populations. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (10.1186/s12916-019-1340-7) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Background and objective Since 2013, a biennial rotavirus pattern has emerged in the Netherlands with alternating high and low endemic years and a nearly 50% reduction in rotavirus hospitalization rates overall, while infant rotavirus vaccination has remained below 1% throughout. As the rotavirus vaccination cost-effectiveness and risk-benefit ratio in high-income settings is highly influenced by the total rotavirus disease burden, we re-evaluated two infant vaccination strategies, taking into account this recent change in rotavirus epidemiology. Methods We used updated rotavirus disease burden estimates derived from (active) surveillance to evaluate (1) a targeted strategy with selective vaccination of infants with medical risk conditions (prematurity, low birth weight, or congenital conditions) and (2) universal vaccination including all infants. In addition, we added herd protection as well as vaccine-induced intussusception risk to our previous cost-effectiveness model. An age- and risk-group structured, discrete-time event, stochastic multi-cohort model of the Dutch pediatric population was used to estimate the costs and effects of each vaccination strategy. Results The targeted vaccination was cost-saving under all scenarios tested from both the healthcare payer and societal perspective at rotavirus vaccine market prices (€135/child). The cost-effectiveness ratio for universal vaccination was €51,277 at the assumed vaccine price of €75/child, using a societal perspective and 3% discount rates. Universal vaccination became cost-neutral at €32/child. At an assumed vaccine-induced intussusception rate of 1/50,000, an estimated 1707 hospitalizations and 21 fatal rotavirus cases were averted by targeted vaccination per vaccine-induced intussusception case. Applying universal vaccination, an additional 571 hospitalizations and

BACKGROUND: Point-of-care blood C-reactive protein (CRP) testing has diagnostic value in helping clinicians rule out the possibility of serious infection. We investigated whether it should be offered to all acutely ill children in primary care or restricted to those identified as at risk on clinical assessment. METHODS: Cluster randomised controlled trial involving acutely ill children presenting to 133 general practitioners (GPs) at 78 GP practices in Belgium. Practices were randomised to undertake point-of-care CRP testing in all children (1730 episodes) or restricted to children identified as at clinical risk (1417 episodes). Clinical risk was assessed by a validated clinical decision rule (presence of one of breathlessness, temperature ≥ 40 °C, diarrhoea and age 12-30 months, or clinician concern). The main trial outcome was hospital admission with serious infection within 5 days. No specific guidance was given to GPs on interpreting CRP levels but diagnostic performance is reported at 5, 20, 80 and 200 mg/L. RESULTS: Restricting CRP testing to those identified as at clinical risk substantially reduced the number of children tested by 79.9 % (95 % CI, 77.8-82.0 %). There was no significant difference between arms in the number of children with serious infection who were referred to hospital immediately (0.16 % vs. 0.14 %, P = 0.88). Only one child with a CRP

Background Anti-Müllerian hormone (AMH) is currently used as an ovarian reserve marker for individualized fertility counseling, but very little is known of individual AMH decline in women. This study assessed whether the decline trajectory of AMH is uniform for all women, and whether baseline age-specific AMH levels remain consistently high or low during this trajectory. Methods A total of 3326 female participants from the population-based Doetinchem Cohort Study were followed with five visits over a 20-year period. Baseline age was 40 ± 10 years with a range of 20–59 years. AMH was measured in 12,929 stored plasma samples using the picoAMH assay (AnshLabs). Decline trajectories of AMH were studied with both chronological age and reproductive age, i.e., time to menopause. Multivariable linear mixed effects models characterized the individual AMH decline trajectories. Results The overall rate of AMH decline accelerated after 40 years of age. Mixed models with varying age-specific AMH levels and decline rates provided the significantly best fit to the data, indicating that the fall in AMH levels over time does not follow a fixed pattern for individual women. AMH levels remained consistent along individual trajectories of age, with an intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC) of 0.87. The ICC of 0.32 for AMH trajectories with time to menopause expressed the large variation in AMH levels at a given time before the menopause. The differences between low and high age-specific AMH levels remained distinguishable, but became increasingly smaller with increasing chronological and reproductive age. Conclusions This is the first study to characterize individual AMH decline over a long time period and broad age range. The varying AMH decline rates do not support the premise of a uniform AMH decline trajectory. Although age-specific AMH levels remain consistently high or low with increasing age, the converging trajectories and variance of AMH levels at a given time before menopause shed doubt on the added value of AMH to represent individualized reproductive age. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12916-016-0699-y) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Background Hepatitis C virus (HCV) elimination is being seriously considered globally. Current elimination models require a combination of highly effective HCV treatment and harm reduction, but high treatment costs make such strategies prohibitively expensive. Vaccines should play a key role in elimination but their best use alongside treatments is unclear. For three vaccines with different efficacies we used a mathematical model to estimate the additional reduction in HCV prevalence when vaccinating after treatment; and to identify in which settings vaccines could most effectively reduce the number of treatments required to achieve fixed reductions in HCV prevalence among people who inject drugs (PWID). Methods A deterministic model of HCV transmission among PWID was calibrated for settings with 25, 50 and 75 % chronic HCV prevalence among PWID, stratified by high-risk or low-risk PWID. For vaccines with 30, 60 or 90 % efficacies, different rates of treatment and vaccination were introduced. We compared prevalence reductions achieved by vaccinating after treatment to prevent reinfection and vaccinating independently of treatment history in the community; and by allocating treatments and vaccinations to specific risk groups and proportionally across risk groups. Results Vaccinating after treatment was minimally different to vaccinating independently of treatment history, and allocating treatments and vaccinations to specific risk groups was minimally different to allocating them proportionally across risk groups. Vaccines with 30 or 60 % efficacy provided greater additional prevalence reduction per vaccination in a setting with 75 % chronic HCV prevalence among PWID than a 90 % efficacious vaccine in settings with 25 or 50 % chronic HCV prevalence among PWID. Conclusions Vaccinating after treatment is an effective and practical method of administration. In settings with high chronic HCV prevalence among PWID, even modest coverage with a low-efficacy vaccine could provide significant additional prevalence reduction beyond treatment alone, and would likely reduce the cost of achieving prevalence reduction targets. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12916-015-0440-2) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Background Exercise started shortly after breast cancer diagnosis might prevent or diminish fatigue complaints. The Physical Activity during Cancer Treatment (PACT) study was designed to primarily examine the effects of an 18-week exercise intervention, offered in the daily clinical practice setting and starting within 6 weeks after diagnosis, on preventing an increase in fatigue. Methods This multi-centre controlled trial randomly assigned 204 breast cancer patients to usual care (n = 102) or supervised aerobic and resistance exercise (n = 102). By design, all patients received chemotherapy between baseline and 18 weeks. Fatigue (i.e., primary outcome at 18 weeks), quality of life, anxiety, depression, and physical fitness were measured at 18 and 36 weeks. Results Intention-to-treat mixed linear model analyses showed that physical fatigue increased significantly less during cancer treatment in the intervention group compared to control (mean between-group differences at 18 weeks: −1.3; 95 % CI −2.5 to −0.1; effect size −0.30). Results for general fatigue were comparable but did not reach statistical significance (-1.0, 95%CI -2.1; 0.1; effect size -0.23). At 18 weeks, submaximal cardiorespiratory fitness and several muscle strength tests (leg extension and flexion) were significantly higher in the intervention group compared to control, whereas peak oxygen uptake did not differ between groups. At 36 weeks these differences were no longer statistically significant. Quality of life outcomes favoured the exercise group but were not significantly different between groups. Conclusions A supervised 18-week exercise programme offered early in routine care during adjuvant breast cancer treatment showed positive effects on physical fatigue, submaximal cardiorespiratory fitness, and muscle strength. Exercise early during treatment of breast cancer can be recommended. At 36 weeks, these effects were no longer statistically significant. This might have been caused by the control participants’ high physical activity levels during follow-up. Trial registration Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN43801571, Dutch Trial Register NTR2138. Trial registered on December 9th, 2009. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12916-015-0362-z) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Background: Cancer survivors are advised to follow lifestyle recommendations on diet, physical activity, and body fatness proposed by the World Cancer Research Fund/American Institute of Cancer Research (WCRF/AICR) for cancer prevention. Previous studies have demonstrated that higher concordance with these recommendations measured using an index score (the WCRF/AICR score) was associated with lower cancer incidence and mortality. The aim of this study was to evaluate the association between pre-diagnostic concordance with WCRF/AICR recommendations and mortality in colorectal cancer (CRC) patients. Methods: The association between the WCRF/AICR score (score range 0-6 in men and 0-7 in women; higher scores indicate greater concordance) assessed on average 6.4 years before diagnosis and CRC-specific (n = 872) and overall mortality (n = 1,113) was prospectively examined among 3,292 participants diagnosed with CRC in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) cohort (mean follow-up time after diagnosis 4.2 years). Multivariable Cox proportional hazard models were used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for mortality. Results: The HRs (95% CIs) for CRC-specific mortality among participants in the second (score range in men/women: 2.25-2.75/3.25-3.75), third (3-3.75/4-4.75), and fourth (4-6/5-7) categories of the score were 0.87 (0.72-1.06), 0.74 (0.61-0.90), and 0.70 (0.56-0.89), respectively (P for trend, We would like to acknowledge the contribution of all participants in the study. This study was funded by the World Cancer Research Fund (WCRF) International Regular Grant Programme (Grant number 2009/44). Dora Romaguera holds a Ramon y Cajal contract (Ministerio de Economia y Competitividad, Spain and European Regional Development Fund; RYC-2011-08796). In addition, EPIC investigators acknowledge funding from the following agencies: Europe Against Cancer Program of the European Commission (SANCO); German Cancer Aid; German Cancer Research Center (DKFZ); German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF); Danish Cancer Society; Catalan Institute of Oncology, Spain; Health Research Fund (FIS) of the Spanish Ministry of Health; Spanish Regional Governments of Andalucia, Asturias, Basque Country, Murcia (no. 6236) and Navarra; ISCIII RCESP exp. C03/09 and ISCIII RETICC RD06/0020/0091, Spain; Cancer Research UK; Medical Research Council, United Kingdom; The Hellenic Health Foundation, Greece; Italian Association for Research on Cancer (AIRC); Italian National Research Council; Fondazione-Istituto Banco Napoli, Italy; Dutch Ministry of Public Health, Welfare and Sports, Dutch Prevention Funds, LK Research Funds, Dutch ZON (Zorg Onderzoek Nederland), World Cancer Research Fund (WCRF), The Netherlands; Swedish Cancer Society; Swedish Scientific Council; Regional Government of Skane, Sweden; Helga-Nordic Center of Excellence Programme in Nutrition and Health; French League against Cancer (LNCC); National Institute for Health and Medical Research (INSERM), France; Mutuelle Generale de l'Education Nationale (MGEN), France; 3 M Co., France; Gustave Roussy Institute (IGR), France; and General Councils of France.

Background Although the association between menopause and cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk has been studied extensively, the simultaneous role of chronological aging herein remains underexposed. This study aims to disentangle the relationships of menopausal status and chronological aging with CVD risk factors in the largest study population to date. Methods In this cross-sectional study, CVD risk factors were compared between women with a different menopausal status within the same yearly age strata. The study population comprised female participants of the baseline visit of the population-based LifeLines Cohort Study. A total of 63,466 women, aged between 18 and 65 years, was included. Of them, 39,379 women were considered to be premenopausal, 8669 were perimenopausal, 14,514 were naturally postmenopausal, and 904 were surgically postmenopausal. Results Compared to postmenopausal women aged 45 years, average total cholesterol (TC) and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-c) were 0.5 and 0.4 mmol/L higher, respectively, in postmenopausal women aged 50. Systolic and diastolic blood pressure levels were 4 and 1 mmHg higher, respectively. At all ages between 46 and 55 years, and after adjustment for confounders, naturally postmenopausal women had 0.2 to 0.4 mmol/L higher TC and 0.1 to 0.3 mmol/L higher LDL-c levels compared to premenopausal women in the same age range. Systolic blood pressure levels were up to 4 mmHg lower in naturally post- compared to premenopausal women at all ages between 29 and 52 years. Body mass index levels were up to 3.2 kg/m2 higher in women with surgical menopause compared to all other women between the ages 32 and 52 years. All aforementioned results were statistically significant. Conclusions Chronological age and menopausal status are both independently associated with CVD risk factors. Based on the comparatively smaller observed differences associated with menopausal status than with chronological aging, the significance of a more unfavorable lipid profile in a later reproductive stage may be less obvious than previously thought. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12916-016-0762-8) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Clinical practice guidelines provide separate recommendations for different diseases that may be prevented or treated by the same intervention. Also, they commonly provide recommendations for entire populations but not for individuals. To address these two limitations, our aim was to conduct benefit-harm analyses for a wide range of individuals using the example of low dose aspirin for primary prevention of cardiovascular disease and cancer and to develop Benefit-Harm Charts that show the overall benefit-harm balance for individuals. We used quantitative benefit-harm modeling that included 16 outcomes to estimate the probability that low dose aspirin provides more benefits than harms for a wide range of men and women between 45 and 84 years of age and without a previous myocardial infarction, severe ischemic stroke, or cancer. We repeated the quantitative benefit-harm modeling for different combinations of age, sex, and outcome risks for severe ischemic and hemorrhagic stroke, myocardial infarction, cancers, and severe gastrointestinal bleeds. The analyses considered weights for the outcomes, statistical uncertainty of the effects of aspirin, and death as a competing risk. We constructed Benefit-Harm Charts that show the benefit-harm balance for different combinations of outcome risks. The Benefit-Harm Charts ( http://www.benefit-harm-balance.com ) we have created show that the benefit-harm balance differs largely across a primary prevention population. Low dose aspirin is likely to provide more benefits than harms in men, elderly people, and in those at low risk for severe gastrointestinal bleeds. Individual preferences have a major impact on the benefit-harm balance. If, for example, it is a high priority for individuals to prevent stroke and severe cancers while severe gastrointestinal bleeds are deemed to be of little importance, the benefit-harm balance is likely to favor low dose aspirin for most individuals. Instead, if severe gastrointestinal bleeds are judged to be similarly important compared to the benefit outcomes, low dose aspirin is unlikely to provide more benefits than harms. Benefit-Harm Charts support individualized benefit-harm assessments and decision making. Similarly, individualized benefit-harm assessments may allow guideline developers to issue more finely granulated recommendations that reduce the risk of over- and underuse of interventions. The example of low dose aspirin for primary prevention of cardiovascular disease and cancer shows that it may be time for guideline developers to provide combined recommendations for different diseases that may be prevented or treated by the same intervention.

Background Placental Plasmodium falciparum malaria can trigger intervillositis, a local inflammatory response more strongly associated with low birthweight than placental malaria infection alone. Fetal growth (and therefore birthweight) is dependent on placental amino acid transport, which is impaired in placental malaria-associated intervillositis. Here, we tested the hypothesis that mechanistic target of rapamycin (mTOR) signaling, a pathway known to regulate amino acid transport, is inhibited in placental malaria-associated intervillositis, contributing to lower birthweight. Methods We determined the link between intervillositis, mTOR signaling activity, and amino acid uptake in tissue biopsies from both uninfected placentas and malaria-infected placentas with and without intervillositis, and in an in vitro model using primary human trophoblast (PHT) cells. Results We demonstrated that (1) placental mTOR activity is lower in cases of placental malaria with intervillositis, (2) placental mTOR activity is negatively correlated with the degree of inflammation, and (3) inhibition of placental mTOR activity is associated with reduced placental amino acid uptake and lower birthweight. In PHT cells, we showed that (1) inhibition of mTOR signaling is a mechanistic link between placental malaria-associated intervillositis and decreased amino acid uptake and (2) constitutive mTOR activation partially restores amino acid uptake. Conclusions Our data support the concept that inhibition of placental mTOR signaling constitutes a mechanistic link between placental malaria-associated intervillositis and decreased amino acid uptake, which may contribute to lower birthweight. Restoring placental mTOR signaling in placental malaria may increase birthweight and improve neonatal survival, representing a new potential therapeutic approach. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12916-016-0759-3) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.