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Objectives: To evaluate the long term risks of invasive breast cancer and death related to breast cancer after non-screen detected ductal carcinoma in situ. Risks for women in the general population and for women diagnosed with ductal carcinoma in situ via the screening programme were compared., Design: Population based cohort study., Setting: Data from the National Disease Registration Service., Participants: All 27 543 women in England who were diagnosed with ductal carcinoma in situ, outside the NHS breast screening programme, during 1990 to 2018., Main Outcome Measures: Incident invasive breast cancer and death caused by breast cancer., Results: By 31 December 2018, 3651 women with non-screen detected ductal carcinoma in situ had developed invasive breast cancer, more than four times higher than expected from national cancer incidence rates (ratio of observed to expected rate was 4.21 (95% conference interval 4.07 to 4.35)). The ratio of observed to expected rate of developing invasive breast cancer remained increased throughout follow-up among women aged <45-70 years. The 25 year cumulative risks of invasive breast cancer by age at diagnosis of ductal carcinoma in situ were 27.3% for <45 years, 25.2% for 45-49 years, 21.7% for 50-59 years, and 20.8% for 60-70 years. 908 women died of breast cancer, almost four times higher than that expected from breast cancer death rates in the general population (ratio of observed to expected rate 3.83 (3.59 to 4.09)). The ratio of observed to expected rate of mortality attributed to breast cancer remained increased throughout follow-up. The 25 year cumulative risks of breast cancer death by age at ductal carcinoma in situ diagnosis were 7.6% for <45 years, 5.8% for 45-49 years, 5.9% for 50-59 years, and 6.2% for 60-70 years. Among women aged 50-64 years, and therefore eligible for breast screening by the NHS, the ratio of observed to expected rate of invasive breast cancer in women with non-screen detected compared with screen detected ductal carcinoma in situ was 1.26 (95% conference interval 1.17 to 1.35), while the ratio for mortality from breast cancer was 1.37 (1.17 to 1.60). Among 22 753 women with unilateral ductal carcinoma in situ undergoing surgery, those who had mastectomy rather than breast conserving surgery had a lower 25 year cumulative rate of ipsilateral invasive breast cancer (mastectomy 8.2% (95% conference interval 7.0% to 9.4%), breast conserving surgery with radiotherapy 19.8% (16.2% to 23.4%), and breast conserving surgery with no radiotherapy recorded 20.6% (18.7% to 22.4%)). However, reductions did not translate into a lower 25 year cumulative rate of deaths attributable to breast cancer (mastectomy 6.5% (4.9% to 10.9%), breast conserving surgery with radiotherapy 8.6% (5.9% to 15.5%), breast conserving surgery with no radiotherapy recorded 7.8% (6.3% to 11.5%))., Conclusions: For at least 25 years after their diagnosis, women with non-screen detected ductal carcinoma in situ had higher long term risks of invasive breast cancer and breast cancer death than women in the general population. Additionally, they had higher long term risks than women with screen detected ductal carcinoma in situ. Mastectomy was associated with lower risks of invasive breast cancer than breast conserving surgery, even when accompanied by radiotherapy. However, risks of breast cancer death appeared similar for mastectomy, breast conserving surgery with radiotherapy, and breast conserving surgery with no radiotherapy recorded., Competing Interests: Competing interests: All authors have completed the ICMJE uniform disclosure form at www.icmje.org/disclosure-of-interest and declare: funding from Cancer Research UK, Cancer Research UK Clinician Scientist Fellowship, the National Institute for Health Research Biomedical Research Centre, and the University of Oxford; no support from any organisation for the submitted work other than salaries from their employing institutions and the funding listed in the section above; no financial relationships with any organisations that might have an interest in the submitted work in the previous three years; and no other relationships or activities that could appear to have influenced the submitted work., (© Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2019. Re-use permitted under CC BY. No commercial re-use. See rights and permissions. Published by BMJ.)

Objectives: To describe long term breast cancer mortality among women with a diagnosis of breast cancer in the past and estimate absolute breast cancer mortality risks for groups of patients with a recent diagnosis., Design: Population based observational cohort study., Setting: Routinely collected data from the National Cancer Registration and Analysis Service., Participants: All 512 447 women registered with early invasive breast cancer (involving only breast and possibly axillary nodes) in England during January 1993 to December 2015, with follow-up to December 2020., Main Outcome Measures: Annual breast cancer mortality rates and cumulative risks by time since diagnosis, calendar period of diagnosis, and nine characteristics of patients and tumours., Results: For women with a diagnosis made within each of the calendar periods 1993-99, 2000-04, 2005-09, and 2010-15, the crude annual breast cancer mortality rate was highest during the five years after diagnosis and then declined. For any given time since diagnosis, crude annual breast cancer mortality rates and risks decreased with increasing calendar period. Crude five year breast cancer mortality risk was 14.4% (95% confidence interval 14.2% to 14.6%) for women with a diagnosis made during 1993-99 and 4.9% (4.8% to 5.0%) for women with a diagnosis made during 2010-15. Adjusted annual breast cancer mortality rates also decreased with increasing calendar period in nearly every patient group, by a factor of about three in oestrogen receptor positive disease and about two in oestrogen receptor negative disease. Considering just the women with a diagnosis made during 2010-15, cumulative five year breast cancer mortality risk varied substantially between women with different characteristics: it was <3% for 62.8% (96 085/153 006) of women but ≥20% for 4.6% (6962/153 006) of women., Conclusions: These five year breast cancer mortality risks for patients with a recent diagnosis may be used to estimate breast cancer mortality risks for patients today. The prognosis for women with early invasive breast cancer has improved substantially since the 1990s. Most can expect to become long term cancer survivors, although for a few the risk remains appreciable., Competing Interests: Competing interests: All authors have completed the ICMJE uniform disclosure form at https://www.icmje.org/disclosure-of-interest/ and declare: support from Cancer Research UK, the National Institute for Health Research Oxford Biomedical Research Centre, the UK Medical Research Council, and the University of Oxford for the submitted work; no financial relationships with any organisations that might have an interest in the submitted work in the previous three years; no other relationships or activities that could appear to have influenced the submitted work., (© Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2019. Re-use permitted under CC BY. No commercial re-use. See rights and permissions. Published by BMJ.)

Objective: To assess the cancer risk in children and adolescents following exposure to low dose ionising radiation from diagnostic computed tomography (CT) scans., Design: Population based, cohort, data linkage study in Australia. COHORT MEMBERS: 10.9 million people identified from Australian Medicare records, aged 0-19 years on 1 January 1985 or born between 1 January 1985 and 31 December 2005; all exposures to CT scans funded by Medicare during 1985-2005 were identified for this cohort. Cancers diagnosed in cohort members up to 31 December 2007 were obtained through linkage to national cancer records., Main Outcome: Cancer incidence rates in individuals exposed to a CT scan more than one year before any cancer diagnosis, compared with cancer incidence rates in unexposed individuals., Results: 60,674 cancers were recorded, including 3150 in 680,211 people exposed to a CT scan at least one year before any cancer diagnosis. The mean duration of follow-up after exposure was 9.5 years. Overall cancer incidence was 24% greater for exposed than for unexposed people, after accounting for age, sex, and year of birth (incidence rate ratio (IRR) 1.24 (95% confidence interval 1.20 to 1.29); P<0.001). We saw a dose-response relation, and the IRR increased by 0.16 (0.13 to 0.19) for each additional CT scan. The IRR was greater after exposure at younger ages (P<0.001 for trend). At 1-4, 5-9, 10-14, and 15 or more years since first exposure, IRRs were 1.35 (1.25 to 1.45), 1.25 (1.17 to 1.34), 1.14 (1.06 to 1.22), and 1.24 (1.14 to 1.34), respectively. The IRR increased significantly for many types of solid cancer (digestive organs, melanoma, soft tissue, female genital, urinary tract, brain, and thyroid); leukaemia, myelodysplasia, and some other lymphoid cancers. There was an excess of 608 cancers in people exposed to CT scans (147 brain, 356 other solid, 48 leukaemia or myelodysplasia, and 57 other lymphoid). The absolute excess incidence rate for all cancers combined was 9.38 per 100,000 person years at risk, as of 31 December 2007. The average effective radiation dose per scan was estimated as 4.5 mSv., Conclusions: The increased incidence of cancer after CT scan exposure in this cohort was mostly due to irradiation. Because the cancer excess was still continuing at the end of follow-up, the eventual lifetime risk from CT scans cannot yet be determined. Radiation doses from contemporary CT scans are likely to be lower than those in 1985-2005, but some increase in cancer risk is still likely from current scans. Future CT scans should be limited to situations where there is a definite clinical indication, with every scan optimised to provide a diagnostic CT image at the lowest possible radiation dose.

Objective: To investigate the impact of smoking on overall mortality and life expectancy in a large Japanese population, including some who smoked throughout adult life., Design: The Life Span Study, a population-based prospective study, initiated in 1950., Setting: Hiroshima and Nagasaki, Japan., Participants: Smoking status for 27,311 men and 40,662 women was obtained during 1963-92. Mortality from one year after first ascertainment of smoking status until 1 January 2008 has been analysed., Main Outcome Measures: Mortality from all causes in current, former, and never smokers., Results: Smokers born in later decades tended to smoke more cigarettes per day than those born earlier, and to have started smoking at a younger age. Among those born during 1920-45 (median 1933) and who started smoking before age 20 years, men smoked on average 23 cigarettes/day, while women smoked 17 cigarettes/day, and, for those who continued smoking, overall mortality was more than doubled in both sexes (rate ratios versus never smokers: men 2.21 (95% confidence interval 1.97 to 2.48), women 2.61 (1.98 to 3.44)) and life expectancy was reduced by almost a decade (8 years for men, 10 years for women). Those who stopped smoking before age 35 avoided almost all of the excess risk among continuing smokers, while those who stopped smoking before age 45 avoided most of it., Conclusions: The lower smoking related hazards reported previously in Japan may have been due to earlier birth cohorts starting to smoke when older and smoking fewer cigarettes per day. In Japan, as elsewhere, those who start smoking in early adult life and continue smoking lose on average about a decade of life. Much of the risk can, however, be avoided by giving up smoking before age 35, and preferably well before age 35.

Objectives: To study the long term effects of participation in the United Kingdom's atmospheric nuclear weapon tests and experimental programmes and to test hypotheses generated by an earlier report, including the possibility that participation in tests caused small hazards of leukaemia and multiple myeloma., Design: Follow up study of mortality and cancer incidence., Subjects: 21,358 servicemen and civilians from the United Kingdom who participated in the tests and a control group of 22,333 non-participants., Main Outcome Measures: Numbers of deaths; standardised mortality ratios; relative risks of mortality from all causes and 27 types of cancer., Results: During seven further years of follow up the numbers of deaths observed in participants were fewer than expected from national rates for all causes, all neoplasms, leukaemia, and multiple myeloma (standardised mortality ratios 0.86, 0.85, 0.57, and 0.46); death rates were lower than in controls (relative risks 0.99, 0.96, 0.57, and 0.57; 90% confidence intervals all included 1.00). In the period more than 10 years after the initial participation in tests the relative risk of death in participants compared with controls was near unity for all causes (relative risk 0.99 (0.95 to 1.04) and all neoplasms (0.95 (0.87 to 1.04)); it was raised for bladder cancer (2.69 (1.42 to 5.20)) and reduced for cancers of the mouth, tongue, and pharynx (0.45 (0.22 to 0.93)) and for lung cancer (0.85 (0.73 to 0.99)). For leukaemia mortality was equal to that expected from national rates but greater than in controls for both the whole follow up period (1.75 (1.01 to 3.06)) and the period 2-25 years after the tests (3.38 (1.45 to 8.25))., Conclusion: Participation in nuclear weapon tests had no detectable effect on expectation of life or on subsequent risk of developing cancer or other fatal diseases. The excess of leukaemia in participants compared with controls seems to be principally due to a chance deficit in the controls, but the possibility that participation in the tests may have caused a small risk of leukaemia in the early years afterwards cannot be ruled out.

Objective: To obtain further information about the risks of childhood leukaemia after exposure to ionising radiation at low doses and low dose rates before or after birth or to the father's testes shortly before conception., Design: Observational study of trends in incidence of childhood leukaemia in relation to estimated radiation exposures due to fallout from atmospheric nuclear weapons testing during the 1950s and 1960s., Setting: Nordic countries., Subjects: Children aged under 15 years., Main Outcome Measures: Incidence rates of leukaemia by age at diagnosis, sex, country, and calendar year of diagnosis or year of birth; exposure category; relation between leukaemia and exposure for children aged 0-14 and 0-4 separately., Results: During the high fallout period the average estimated dose equivalent to the fetal red bone marrow was around 140 mu Sv and the average annual testicular dose 140 mu Sv. There was little evidence of increased incidence of leukaemia among children born in these years. Doses to the red bone marrow of a child after birth were higher, and during the high exposure period children would have been subjected to an additional dose equivalent of around 1500 mu Sv, similar to doses received by children in several parts of central and eastern Europe owing to the Chernobyl accident and about 50% greater than the annual dose equivalent to the red bone marrow of a child from natural radiation. leukaemia incidence and red marrow dose was not related overall, but rates of leukaemia in the high exposure period were slightly higher than in the surrounding medium exposure period (relative risk for ages 0-14: 1.07, 95% confidence interval 1.00 to 1.14; for ages 0-4: 1.11, 1.00 to 1.24)., Conclusions: Current predicted risks of childhood leukaemia after exposure to radiation are not greatly underestimated for low dose rate exposures.

OBJECTIVE--To estimate the cumulative incidence of AIDS by time since seroconversion in haemophiliacs positive for HIV and to examine the evidence for excess mortality associated with HIV in those who had not yet been diagnosed as having AIDS. DESIGN--Analysis of data from ongoing national surveys. SETTING--Haemophilia centres in the United Kingdom. PATIENTS--A total of 1201 men with haemophilia who had lived in the United Kingdom during 1980-7 and were positive for HIV. INTERVENTION--None. END POINTS--Diagnosis of AIDS; death in those not diagnosed as having AIDS. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS--Estimation of cumulative incidence of AIDS and number of excess deaths in seropositive patients not diagnosed with AIDS. Median follow up after seroconversion was 5 years 2 months. Eight five patients developed AIDS. Cumulative incidence of AIDS five years after seroconversion was 4% among patients aged less than 25 at first test positive for HIV, 6% among those aged 25-44, and 19% among those aged greater than or equal to 45. There was little evidence that type or severity of haemophilia or type of factor VIII or IX that had caused HIV infection affected the rate of progression to AIDS. Mortality was increased among those who had not been diagnosed as having AIDS, especially among those with "AIDS related complex." Thirteen deaths were observed among 36 patients diagnosed as having AIDS related complex against 0.65 expected, and 34 deaths in 1080 other patients against 22.77 expected; both calculations were based on mortality rates observed in haemophiliacs in the United Kingdom in the late 1970s. CONCLUSIONS--Rate of progression to AIDS depended strongly on age. There is a substantial burden of fatal disease among patients positive for HIV who have not been formally diagnosed as having AIDS.