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Objective: To review the evidence on diagnostic accuracy of red flag signs and symptoms to screen for fracture or malignancy in patients presenting with low back pain to primary, secondary, or tertiary care., Design: Systematic review., Data Sources: Medline, OldMedline, Embase, and CINAHL from earliest available up to 1 October 2013., Inclusion Criteria: Primary diagnostic studies comparing red flags for fracture or malignancy to an acceptable reference standard, published in any language., Review Methods: Assessment of study quality and extraction of data was conducted by three independent assessors. Diagnostic accuracy statistics and post-test probabilities were generated for each red flag., Results: We included 14 studies (eight from primary care, two from secondary care, four from tertiary care) evaluating 53 red flags; only five studies evaluated combinations of red flags. Pooling of data was not possible because of index test heterogeneity. Many red flags in current guidelines provide virtually no change in probability of fracture or malignancy or have untested diagnostic accuracy. The red flags with the highest post-test probability for detection of fracture were older age (9%, 95% confidence interval 3% to 25%), prolonged use of corticosteroid drugs (33%, 10% to 67%), severe trauma (11%, 8% to 16%), and presence of a contusion or abrasion (62%, 49% to 74%). Probability of spinal fracture was higher when multiple red flags were present (90%, 34% to 99%). The red flag with the highest post-test probability for detection of spinal malignancy was history of malignancy (33%, 22% to 46%)., Conclusions: While several red flags are endorsed in guidelines to screen for fracture or malignancy, only a small subset of these have evidence that they are indeed informative. These findings suggest a need for revision of many current guidelines.

Objectives: To determine the accuracy of a clinical decision rule (the traffic light system developed by the National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence (NICE)) for detecting three common serious bacterial infections (urinary tract infection, pneumonia, and bacteraemia) in young febrile children., Design: Retrospective analysis of data from a two year prospective cohort study, Setting: A paediatric emergency department., Participants: 15,781 cases of children under 5 years of age presenting with a febrile illness., Main Outcome Measures: Clinical features were used to categorise each febrile episodes as low, intermediate, or high probability of serious bacterial infection (green, amber, and red zones of the traffic light system); these results were checked (using standard radiological and microbiological tests) for each of the infections of interest and for any serious bacterial infection., Results: After combination of the intermediate and high risk categories, the NICE traffic light system had a test sensitivity of 85.8% (95% confidence interval 83.6% to 87.7%) and specificity of 28.5% (27.8% to 29.3%) for the detection of any serious bacterial infection. Of the 1140 cases of serious bacterial infection, 157 (13.8%) were test negative (in the green zone), and, of these, 108 (68.8%) were urinary tract infections. Adding urine analysis (leucocyte esterase or nitrite positive), reported in 3653 (23.1%) episodes, to the traffic light system improved the test performance: sensitivity 92.1% (89.3% to 94.1%), specificity 22.3% (20.9% to 23.8%), and relative positive likelihood ratio 1.10 (1.06 to 1.14)., Conclusion: The NICE traffic light system failed to identify a substantial proportion of serious bacterial infections, particularly urinary tract infections. The addition of urine analysis significantly improved test sensitivity, making the traffic light system a more useful triage tool for the detection of serious bacterial infections in young febrile children.

Objectives: To evaluate current processes by which young children presenting with a febrile illness but suspected of having serious bacterial infection are diagnosed and treated, and to develop and test a multivariable model to distinguish serious bacterial infections from self limiting non-bacterial illnesses. Design Two year prospective cohort study. Setting The emergency department of The Children's Hospital at Westmead, Westmead, Australia., Participants: Children aged less than 5 years presenting with a febrile illness between 1 July 2004 and 30 June 2006., Intervention: A standardised clinical evaluation that included mandatory entry of 40 clinical features into the hospital's electronic record keeping system was performed by physicians. Serious bacterial infections were confirmed or excluded using standard radiological and microbiological tests and follow-up. Main outcome measures Diagnosis of one of three key types of serious bacterial infection (urinary tract infection, pneumonia, and bacteraemia), and the accuracy of both our clinical decision making model and clinician judgment in making these diagnoses., Results: We had follow-up data for 93% of the 15 781 instances of febrile illnesses recorded during the study period. The combined prevalence of any of the three infections of interest (urinary tract infection, pneumonia, or bacteraemia) was 7.2% (1120/15 781, 95% confidence interval (CI) 6.7% to 7.5%), with urinary tract infection the diagnosis in 543 (3.4%) cases of febrile illness (95% CI 3.2% to 3.7%), pneumonia in 533 (3.4%) cases (95% CI 3.1% to 3.7%), and bacteraemia in 64 (0.4%) cases (95% CI 0.3% to 0.5%). Almost all (>94%) of the children with serious bacterial infections had the appropriate test (urine culture, chest radiograph, or blood culture). Antibiotics were prescribed acutely in 66% (359/543) of children with urinary tract infection, 69% (366/533) with pneumonia, and 81% (52/64) with bacteraemia. However, 20% (2686/13 557) of children without bacterial infection were also prescribed antibiotics. On the basis of the data from the clinical evaluations and the confirmed diagnosis, a diagnostic model was developed using multinomial logistic regression methods. Physicians' diagnoses of bacterial infection had low sensitivity (10-50%) and high specificity (90-100%), whereas the clinical diagnostic model provided a broad range of values for sensitivity and specificity., Conclusions: Emergency department physicians tend to underestimate the likelihood of serious bacterial infection in young children with fever, leading to undertreatment with antibiotics. A clinical diagnostic model could improve decision making by increasing sensitivity for detecting serious bacterial infection, thereby improving early treatment.

Objective: To assess which of three triage strategies for women with borderline abnormal cervical smear results in the best psychosocial outcomes., Design: Pragmatic, non-blinded, multicentre, randomised controlled trial., Setting: 18 family planning clinics across Australia, covering both urban and rural areas, between January 2004 and October 2006., Participants: Women aged 16-70 years (n=314) who attended routine cervical screening and received a borderline cervical smear., Interventions: Patients were randomly assigned to human papillomavirus (HPV) DNA testing (n=104), a repeat smear test at six months (n=106), or the patient's informed choice of either test supported by a decision aid (n=104). Psychosocial outcomes were assessed at multiple time points over 12 months by postal questionnaire., Main Outcome Measures: We assessed health related quality of life (SF36 mental health subscale), cognitive effects (such as perceived risk of cervical cancer, intrusive thoughts), affective outcomes (general anxiety [state-trait anxiety inventory]), specific anxiety about an abnormal smear (cervical screening questionnaire), and behavioural outcomes (sexual health behaviour and visits to the doctor) over 12 months of follow-up., Results: At two weeks, some psychosocial outcomes were worse for women allocated to HPV testing compared with those in the smear testing group (SF36 vitality subscale: t=-1.63, df=131, P=0.10; intrusive thoughts chi(2)=8.14, df=1, P<0.01). Over 12 months, distress about the abnormal smear was lowest in women allocated to HPV testing and highest in the repeat smear testing group (t=-2.89, df=135, P<0.01). Intrusive thoughts were highest in patients allocated to HPV testing (25%, compared with 13% in the informed choice group; difference=12%, 95% CI -1.1% to 25.1%). Women in the HPV DNA group and the informed choice group were more satisfied with their care than women allocated to repeat smear testing., Conclusions: Although the psychosocial effect was initially worse for women allocated to HPV triage, over the full year of follow-up this intervention was better for women's psychosocial health than repeat smear testing. Offering informed choice could have a small advantage for cognitive outcomes, but in view of the additional effort and logistical complexity that this intervention requires, HPV testing alone can be justified for most women., Trial Registration: actr.org.au Identifier: 12605000111673.

Objective: To assess the value of monitoring response to bisphosphonate treatment by means of measuring bone mineral density., Design: Secondary analysis of trial data using mixed models. Data source The Fracture Intervention Trial, a randomised controlled trial that compared the effects of alendronate and placebo in 6459 postmenopausal women with low bone mineral density recruited between May 1992 and May 1993. Bone density measurements of hip and spine were obtained at baseline and at one, two, and three years after randomisation., Main Outcome Measures: Between-person (treatment related) variation and within-person (measurement related) variation in hip and spine bone mineral density., Results: The mean effect of three years' treatment with alendronate was to increase hip bone mineral density by 0.030 g/cm(2). There was some between-person variation in the effects of alendronate, but this was small in size compared with within-person variation. Alendronate treatment is estimated to result in increases in hip bone density >or=0.019 g/cm(2) in 97.5% of patients., Conclusions: Monitoring bone mineral density in postmenopausal women in the first three years after starting treatment with a potent bisphosphonate is unnecessary and may be misleading. Routine monitoring should be avoided in this early period after bisphosphonate treatment is commenced.

Objective: To compare the accuracy of liquid based cytology using the computerised ThinPrep Imager with that of manually read conventional cytology., Design: Prospective study., Setting: Pathology laboratory in Sydney, Australia., Participants: 55,164 split sample pairs (liquid based sample collected after conventional sample from one collection) from consecutive samples of women choosing both types of cytology and whose specimens were examined between August 2004 and June 2005., Main Outcome Measures: Primary outcome was accuracy of slides for detecting squamous lesions. Secondary outcomes were rate of unsatisfactory slides, distribution of squamous cytological classifications, and accuracy of detecting glandular lesions., Results: Fewer unsatisfactory slides were found for imager read cytology than for conventional cytology (1.8% v 3.1%; P<0.001). More slides were classified as abnormal by imager read cytology (7.4% v 6.0% overall and 2.8% v 2.2% for cervical intraepithelial neoplasia of grade 1 or higher). Among 550 patients in whom imager read cytology was cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 1 or higher and conventional cytology was less severe than grade 1, 133 of 380 biopsy samples taken were high grade histology. Among 294 patients in whom imager read cytology was less severe than cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 1 and conventional cytology was grade 1 or higher, 62 of 210 biopsy samples taken were high grade histology. Imager read cytology therefore detected 71 more cases of high grade histology than did conventional cytology, resulting from 170 more biopsies. Similar results were found when one pathologist reread the slides, masked to cytology results., Conclusion: The ThinPrep Imager detects 1.29 more cases of histological high grade squamous disease per 1000 women screened than conventional cytology, with cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 1 as the threshold for referral to colposcopy. More imager read slides than conventional slides were satisfactory for examination and more contained low grade cytological abnormalities.

Objectives: To assess the effectiveness of two school based smoking education projects in delaying onset of smoking behaviour and in improving health knowledge, beliefs, and values., Design: Cluster randomised controlled trial of two projects taught under normal classroom conditions. Schools were allocated to one of four groups to receive the family smoking education project (FSE); the smoking and me project (SAM); both projects in sequence (FSE/SAM); or no intervention at all., Setting: 39 schools in Wales and England matched for size and catchment profile., Subjects: All first year pupils in the schools were included and were assessed on three occasions (4538 before teaching (1988), 3930 immediately after teaching (1989), 3786 at one year follow up (1990))., Main Outcome Measures: Self reported smoking behaviour (backed by saliva sample) and change in relevant health knowledge, beliefs, and values., Results: No consistent significant differences in smoking behaviour, health knowledge, beliefs, or values were found between the four groups. For never smokers at baseline the rate of remaining never smokers in 1990 was 74% (594/804) in the control group, 65% (455/704) in the FSE group, 70% (440/625) in the SAM group, and 69% (549/791) in the FSE/SAM group (chi 2adj = 6.1, df = 3, p = 0.1). Knowledge about effects of smoking rose in all groups from a mean score of 5.4 in 1988 to 6.4 in 1989 and 6.5 in 1990., Conclusions: More comprehensive interventions than school health education alone will be needed to reduce teenage smoking. Other measures including further restrictions on access to cigarettes and on the promotion of tobacco products need to be considered. Further research will be needed to develop effective school based health education projects, which should be formally field tested under normal conditions before widespread dissemination.