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Introduction: The WHO End-TB Strategy calls for the development of novel diagnostics to detect tuberculosis (TB) earlier and more accurately. Better diagnostics, together with tools to predict disease progression, are critical for achieving WHO End-TB targets. The E arly R isk A ssessment in TB Contacts by new diagno S tic t E sts (ERASE-TB) study aims to evaluate novel diagnostics and testing algorithms for early TB diagnosis and accurate prediction of disease progression among household contacts (HHCs) exposed to confirmed index cases in Mozambique, Tanzania and Zimbabwe., Methods and Analysis: A total of 2100 HHCs (aged ≥10 years) of adults with microbiologically-confirmed pulmonary TB will be recruited and followed up at 6-month intervals for 18-24 months. At each time point, a WHO symptom screen and digital chest radiograph (dCXR) will be performed, and blood and urine samples will be collected. Individuals screening positive (WHO symptom screen or dCXR) will be requested to provide sputum for Xpert MTB/Rif Ultra. At baseline, HHCs will also be screened for HIV, diabetes (HbA1c), chronic lung disease (spirometry), hypertension and anaemia. Study outcomes will be coprevalent TB (diagnosed at enrolment), incident TB (diagnosed during follow-up) or no TB at completion of follow-up. Novel diagnostics will be validated using fresh and biobanked samples with a nested case-control design. Cases are defined as HHCs diagnosed with TB (for early diagnosis) or with incident TB (for prediction of progression) and will be matched by age, sex and country to HHCs who remain healthy (controls). Statistical analyses will include assessment of diagnostic accuracy by constructing receiver operating curves and calculation of sensitivity and specificity., Ethics and Dissemination: ERASE-TB has been approved by regulatory and ethical committees in each African country and by each partner organisation. Consent, with additional assent for participants <18 years, is voluntary. Attestation by impartial witnesses is sought in case of illiteracy. Confidentiality of participants is being maintained throughout. Study findings will be presented at scientific conferences and published in peer-reviewed international journals., Trial Registration Number: NCT04781257.Cite Now., Competing Interests: Competing interests: None declared., (© Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2022. Re-use permitted under CC BY. Published by BMJ.)

Purpose: The Manicaland cohort was established to provide robust scientific data on HIV prevalence and incidence, patterns of sexual risk behaviour and the demographic impact of HIV in a sub-Saharan African population subject to a generalised HIV epidemic. The aims were later broadened to include provision of data on the coverage and effectiveness of national HIV control programmes including antiretroviral therapy (ART)., Participants: General population open cohort located in 12 sites in Manicaland, east Zimbabwe, representing 4 major socioeconomic strata (small towns, agricultural estates, roadside settlements and subsistence farming areas). 9,109 of 11,453 (79.5%) eligible adults (men 17-54 years; women 15-44 years) were recruited in a phased household census between July 1998 and January 2000. Five rounds of follow-up of the prospective household census and the open cohort were conducted at 2-year or 3-year intervals between July 2001 and November 2013. Follow-up rates among surviving residents ranged between 77.0% (over 3 years) and 96.4% (2 years)., Findings to Date: HIV prevalence was 25.1% at baseline and had a substantial demographic impact with 10-fold higher mortality in HIV-infected adults than in uninfected adults and a reduction in the growth rate in the worst affected areas (towns) from 2.9% to 1.0%pa. HIV infection rates have been highest in young adults with earlier commencement of sexual activity and in those with older sexual partners and larger numbers of lifetime partners. HIV prevalence has since fallen to 15.8% and HIV incidence has also declined from 2.1% (1998-2003) to 0.63% (2009-2013) largely due to reduced sexual risk behaviour. HIV-associated mortality fell substantially after 2009 with increased availability of ART., Future Plans: We plan to extend the cohort to measure the effects on the epidemic of current and future HIV prevention and treatment programmes. Proposals for access to these data and for collaboration are welcome., Competing Interests: Competing interests: SG has shares in AstraZeneca and GSK., (© Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2017. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.)