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The amyloid cascade hypothesis has strongly impacted the Alzheimer's disease research agenda and clinical trial designs over the past decades, but precisely how amyloid-β pathology initiates the aggregation of neocortical tau remains unclear. We cannot exclude the possibility of a shared upstream process driving both amyloid-β and tau in an independent manner instead of there being a causal relationship between amyloid-β and tau. Here, we tested the premise that if a causal relationship exists, then exposure should be associated with outcome both at the individual level as well as within identical twin-pairs, who are strongly matched on genetic, demographic and shared environmental background. Specifically, we tested associations between longitudinal amyloid-β PET and cross-sectional tau PET, neurodegeneration and cognitive decline using genetically identical twin-pair difference models, which provide the unique opportunity of ruling out genetic and shared environmental effects as potential confounders in an association. We included 78 cognitively unimpaired identical twins with [18F]flutemetamol (amyloid-β)-PET, [18F]flortaucipir (tau)-PET, MRI (hippocampal volume) and cognitive data (composite memory). Associations between each modality were tested at the individual level using generalized estimating equation models, and within identical twin-pairs using within-pair difference models. Mediation analyses were performed to test for directionality in the associations as suggested by the amyloid cascade hypothesis. At the individual level, we observed moderate-to-strong associations between amyloid-β, tau, neurodegeneration and cognition. The within-pair difference models replicated results observed at the individual level with comparably strong effect sizes. Within-pair differences in amyloid-β were strongly associated with within-pair differences in tau (β = 0.68, P < 0.001), and moderately associated with within-pair differences in hippocampal volume (β = −0.37, P = 0.03) and memory functioning (β = −0.57, P < 0.001). Within-pair differences in tau were moderately associated with within-pair differences in hippocampal volume (β = −0.53, P < 0.001) and strongly associated with within-pair differences in memory functioning (β = −0.68, P < 0.001). Mediation analyses showed that of the total twin-difference effect of amyloid-β on memory functioning, the proportion mediated through pathways including tau and hippocampal volume was 69.9%, which was largely attributable to the pathway leading from amyloid-β to tau to memory functioning (proportion mediated, 51.6%). Our results indicate that associations between amyloid-β, tau, neurodegeneration and cognition are unbiased by (genetic) confounding. Furthermore, effects of amyloid-β on neurodegeneration and cognitive decline were fully mediated by tau. These novel findings in this unique sample of identical twins are compatible with the amyloid cascade hypothesis and thereby provide important new knowledge for clinical trial designs.

Tau accumulation starts during the preclinical phase of Alzheimer’s disease and is closely associated with cognitive decline. For preventive purposes, it is important to identify factors associated with tau accumulation and spread. Studying genetically identical twin-pairs may give insight into genetic and environmental contributions to tau pathology, as similarities in identical twin-pairs largely result from genetic factors, while differences in identical twin-pairs can largely be attributed to non-shared, environmental factors. This study aimed to examine similarities and dissimilarities in a cohort of genetically identical older twin-pairs in (i) tau load; and (ii) spatial distribution of tau, measured with 18F-flortaucipir PET. We selected 78 genetically identical twins (39 pairs; average age 73 ± 6 years), enriched for amyloid-β pathology and APOE ε4 carriership, who underwent dynamic 18F-flortaucipir PET. We extracted binding potentials (BPND) in entorhinal, temporal, widespread neocortical and global regions, and examined within-pair similarities in BPND using age and sex corrected intra-class correlations. Furthermore, we tested whether twin-pairs showed a more similar spatial 18F-flortaucipir distribution compared to non-twin pairs, and whether the participant’s co-twin could be identified solely based on the spatial 18F-flortaucipir distribution. Last, we explored whether environmental (e.g. physical activity, obesity) factors could explain observed differences in twins of a pair in 18F-flortaucipir BPND. On visual inspection, Alzheimer’s disease-like 18F-flortaucipir PET patterns were observed, and although we mainly identified similarities in twin-pairs, some pairs showed strong dissimilarities. 18F-flortaucipir BPND was correlated in twins in the entorhinal (r = 0.40; P = 0.01), neocortical (r = 0.59; P < 0.01) and global (r = 0.56; P < 0.01) regions, but not in the temporal region (r = 0.20; P = 0.10). The 18F-flortaucipir distribution pattern was significantly more similar between twins of the same pair [mean r = 0.27; standard deviation (SD) = 0.09] than between non-twin pairings of participants (mean r = 0.01; SD = 0.10) (P < 0.01), also after correcting for proxies of off-target binding. Based on the spatial 18F-flortaucipir distribution, we could identify with an accuracy of 86% which twins belonged to the same pair. Finally, within-pair differences in 18F-flortaucipir BPND were associated with within-pair differences in depressive symptoms (0.37 < β < 0.56), physical activity (−0.41 < β < −0.42) and social activity (−0.32 < β < −0.36) (all P < 0.05). Overall, identical twin-pairs were comparable in tau load and spatial distribution, highlighting the important role of genetic factors in the accumulation and spreading of tau pathology. Considering also the presence of dissimilarities in tau pathology in identical twin-pairs, our results additionally support a role for (potentially modifiable) environmental factors in the onset of Alzheimer’s disease pathological processes, which may be of interest for future prevention strategies.