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In a Japanese study, cyclin-dependent kinase (CDK) based risk determined by CDK 1 and 2 activities was associated with risk of distance recurrence in early breast cancer patients. The aim of our study was to validate this risk categorization in European early breast cancer patients. We retrospectively analyzed frozen breast cancer specimens of 352 Dutch patients with histologically confirmed primary invasive early breast cancer. CDK-based risk was determined in tumour tissues by calculating a risk score (RS) according to kinases activity and protein mass concentration assay without the knowledge of outcome. Determination of CDK-based risk was feasible in 184 out of 352 (52%) tumours. Median follow-up of these patients was 15 years. In patients not receiving systemic treatment, the proportions of risk categories were 44% low, 16% intermediate, and 40% high CDK-based risk. These groups remained significant after univariate and multivariate Cox-regression analysis. Factors associated with a shorter distant recurrence-free period were positive lymph nodes, mastectomy with radiotherapy, and high CDK-based risk. There was no significant correlation with overall survival (OS). CDK-based risk is a prognostic marker of distance recurrence of patients with early breast cancer. More validation would be warranted to use of CDK-based risk into clinical practice.

Background: There are no established biomarkers to identify tumour recurrence in stage II colon cancer. As shown previously, the enzymatic activity of the cyclin-dependent kinases 1 and 2 (CDK1 and CDK2) predicts outcome in breast cancer. Therefore, we investigated whether CDK activity identifies tumour recurrence in colon cancer. Methods: In all, 254 patients with completely resected (R0) UICC stage II colon cancer were analysed retrospectively from two independent cohorts from Munich (Germany) and Leiden (Netherlands). None of the patients received adjuvant treatment. Development of distant metastasis was observed in 27 patients (median follow-up: 86 months). Protein expression and activity of CDKs were measured on fresh-frozen tumour samples. Results: Specific activity (SA) of CDK1 (CDK1SA), but not CDK2, significantly predicted distant metastasis (concordance index=0.69, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.55–0.79, P=0.036). Cutoff derivation by maximum log-rank statistics yielded a threshold of CDK1SA at 11 (SA units, P=0.029). Accordingly, 59% of patients were classified as high-risk (CDK1SA ⩾11). Cox proportional hazard analysis revealed CDK1SA as independent prognostic variable (hazard ratio=6.2, 95% CI: 1.44–26.9, P=0.012). Moreover, CKD1SA was significantly elevated in microsatellite-stable tumours. Conclusion: Specific activity of CDK1 is a promising biomarker for metastasis risk in stage II colon cancer.