Search

This paper analyzes trends of social mobility in England and Wales. Speculations about trends of social mobility have been prominent in contemporary commentaries on the condition of England, and on the changing structures of highly industrialized societies. Empirical research has given little support to expectations that definite changes would be observable when rates of social mobility were compared over time. The theory that in the U.S. the closing of the frontier and the consolidation of corporate capitalism must have reduced movement up and down the social scale has been questioned by recent research. And the contrasting notion, common in Western Europe, that economic, political and educational changes must have increased chances of social ascent and descent has also been empirically challenged. These studies have made little impact on the general debate about contemporary social stratification. But such evidence has also been only partly relevant to some major issues of the debate. For while the data relate to patterns of social mobility prevailing yesterday, the debate has often in effect centered on those patterns which may prevail tomorrow. It is possible that the occupational experience of those who are still only children or adolescents today will follow new lines–in consequence particularly, it has been suggested, of recent changes in educational policy.

This article focuses on a detailed compilation of the data on income trends among the manual and white-collar employees from 1890, made by sociologist Robert K. Burns. This article speculates the causes of the equalization he discovers as well as venturing predictions about future trends. Findings reported in this article show neither equality of income nor an inversion of the historical pattern. The white-collar worker typically begins with a higher income than do skilled workers and this difference is maintained through to middle age. The chances are that he will move into a still higher occupational rank at this point in his career. It appears likely that a minority are unsuccessful in their mobility aims. These persons may well face serious losses of income both in absolute terms to the manual workers.