Search

The IPCC and many others predict significant changes to our climates over the rest of this century, including average temperature increases for 2–5°C. However, we can see possible indications of change already – increasing frequency of severe storms and other weather events. However, many of the major weather data sets used around the world for building energy simulation are more than 15 years old. Does it matter? This paper compares several of the major data sets used in building performance simulation against newer data derived from the past 15 years. Ten of the past 15 years are the hottest on record and this rapidly changing climate already is evident in the temperature record. We use energy simulation to demonstrate how the various data sets impact energy use. In addition, the design conditions for heating and cooling calculations are already seeing slight changes over the past 20 years. Data for 12 locations around the world is used to demonstrate the changing climate that we already see. Practical application : This paper encourages building designers to use the most up-to-date climatic data in their design and evaluation of building performance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The built environment has been a significant contributor to global carbon emissions. It, therefore, has a vital role to play in the reduction efforts of future climate change. While the design of buildings may determine future energy use for cooling, heating, and lighting during the operational stage of the building, this study aims to observe the effect of the building design on the operational as well as the whole-life carbon emissions. Past studies have focused on either the operational carbon or the embodied carbon of a building. Using a cradle-to-grave assessment of a typical UK supermarket, this study explores the relationship between embodied carbon and operational carbon. Additionally, it examines the effects of the variables between three approved construction methods of the same design on the whole life of carbon. These methods are a steel structural frame and cladding panel external wall, steel frame and poroton walls, precast concrete and glulam frame and precast concrete walls. The findings of this research will contribute to mitigation strategies for the environmental impacts of supermarket building construction whilst providing a framework for future assessment of the whole-life carbon of supermarket buildings. Practical Application : Employing the life cycle assessment methodology, this paper examines the potential of minimising both embodied and operational carbon by observing the whole life carbon. Highlighting the influence of the GHG emission contributing factors in each stage on each other. Additionally, the recommended methodology for the supermarket building types of this case study, could be adapted for other types of buildings. The findings could also augment carbon emission research and guide the development of supermarket buildings to low carbon intensive. Furthermore, collaboration with the industry in carrying out this research aids in adopting the findings as practical and theoretical guides for engineers and designers in reducing the building sector's harmful environmental impact. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Good building design aims to balance providing a comfortable internal environment for as much of the time as possible within a variety of constraints. An important factor is the expected weather, but in a changing climate this poses additional challenges to engineers and architects. This paper examines the effects of increased external temperature on the size of the central air conditioning and heating plant for an example building. It is found that for each 1°C rise in external temperatures, the peak cooling load increases approximately by 10%, the chiller power by 14% and fan power for distribution by 30-50%. These are relatively large increases in power needed to counteract rising external temperature and the paper considers the choice of risk level for sizing building plant. From HadRM3 data, the future frequency distribution of higher external temperatures is examined to evaluate the effects on plant size of designing to a fixed percentile of risk. Projected changes in absolute humidity are also discussed.Practical applications: Climate change is an important topic for building services engineers, resulting in the UK in the new, performance-based Building Regulations Part L. New, future weather data will also become available with different climate change scenarios. This paper examines the implications of both climate change and the risk level on the peak load for natural ventilation or air conditioning and heating that is used in the design of systems. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, (IPCC), Fourth Assessment Report, AR4, Climate Change 2007 consists of three volumes based on the work of three IPCC Working Groups (WGs). WG1 considered the scientific basis of climate change and what the climate models are showing. WG2 considered the consequences of climate change and possible adaptation to it. WG3 considered how the climate change could be mitigated. This paper briefly outlines the history of the IPCC, its purpose and outputs, including the AR4 and its relation to the Kyoto Protocol, and the IPCC authoring process. The paper then reviews the trends in carbon emissions, especially from the built environment (which are a major source of greenhouse gas, GHG, emissions in the world), and the potential mitigation reductions in carbon emissions that are considered possible and the scenarios on which they are based. Practical application: Climate change is an important topic for building services engineers, resulting in the UK in the new, performance-based Building Regulations Part L. This paper outlines the history and relevance of the IPCC for building services engineers as well as reviewing the world trends in carbon emissions from buildings and the future scenarios on which they are based. The paper emphasises the importance of buildings and building services in the context of climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, (IPCC), Fourth Assessment Report, AR4, Climate Change 2007 consists of three volumes based on the work of three IPCC Working Groups (WGs). WG1 considered the scientific basis of climate change and what the climate models are showing. WG2 considered the consequences of climate change and possible adaptation to it. WG3 considered how the climate change could be mitigated. Within this WG3 volume is chapter 6 on the mitigation options for residential and commercial buildings. This paper reviews this chapter which discusses how the potential savings of greenhouse gases can be achieved through technical fixes and policies. The technical fixes are based on existing technology although it is recognised that existing building refurbishment is a major issue to be addressed and that there are a number of policies that can help achieve these reductions although some are in their infancy. Part 1 of this paper (The IPCC process and Greenhouse Gas Emission trends from Buildings worldwide) considered the history of the IPCC and the trends in emissions, particularly from buildings. Practical application: Climate change is an important topic for building services engineers, resulting in the UK in the new, performance-based Building Regulations Part L. This paper reviews the technical options that have been identified by the IPCC as potentially carbon mitigating for buildings. The context of the world situation is also considered and the policies considered by the IPCC as relevant to buildings and plant that will ultimately affect the design of building services engineers in the UK and overseas. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper proposed to discuss some issues about indoor microclimate parameters design in radiant cooled residential buildings. Based on the thermal comfort model, the relationships between low mean radiant temperature and other thermal microclimate parameters such as indoor air temperature, air velocity, and relative humidity were analyzed. The improved and reasonable combinations of four thermal microclimate parameters including radiant cooling surface temperature, air temperature, air velocity, and relative humidity were further derived. Furthermore, a number of new thermal comfort charts using radiant cooling surface temperature and air temperature as dominant parameters were drawn. The results show that the air temperature can be increased 1–3℃ within the recommended thermal comfort range when the mean radiant temperature is reduced 3℃. Under the design goal of thermal neutral, when the chilled ceiling surface temperature is in the range of 16–26℃, the air temperature should be set at 25.3–29.3℃; when the chilled floor surface temperature is in the range of 19–26℃, the air temperature should be set at 25.8–29.2℃. The design values of air velocity and relative humidity are not recommended to be changed, and still can follow the design standards for conventional all-air systems.Practical application: In this paper, some issues about indoor microclimate parameters design in radiant cooled buildings were discussed. A number of new thermal comfort charts using radiant cooling surface temperature and air temperature as dominant parameters were provided, and the design values of indoor air temperature, mean radiant temperature, air velocity, and relative humidity for radiant cooling system in residential buildings were also suggested. The research results can provide a more intuitive reference for the design of radiant cooling systems in residential buildings. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Property-based rainwater drainage provision comprises a number of components broadly categorised as roof, surface or underground drainage. These systems are relied upon to prevent water ingress to the building and to avoid localised ponding or flooding. Recognition of the inherently unsteady response of the integrated network, in part driven by a particular rainfall event but also due to the transient nature of the fluid flows therein, is important in allowing an understanding of system performance under both current and future climate conditions. Codes and standards suggest that roof drainage systems, conventional or siphonic, are designed using a single rainfall intensity figure, representative of the most intense part of a longer storm, whereas runoff to surface and underground drainage is typically based on a single-peaked rainfall profile. Together with the difference in event duration typically adopted as part of the design process, this means that, unless a straightforward uplift factor is applied, then understanding the potential impacts of climate change on overall system performance can be difficult. Using numerical modelling techniques to analyse the performance of a case study site located in Edinburgh, this research identifies an appropriate common rainfall event from which a system-specific exceedance threshold is identified. Specification of this rainfall intensity facilitates an exploration of the impacts of climate change undertaken within the context of UKCP09 projections. Using gutter overtopping as an indicator of failure, this paper explores possible changes in the frequency of system under-capacity under varying future climate change scenarios.Practical application: Engineers are encouraged, in relevant codes and standards, to take account of the potential impacts of climate change when designing rainwater drainage systems for buildings. However, little guidance is offered therein on how to achieve this. This paper presents an example of UKCP09 climate change projections, specifically Weather Generator precipitation data, applied to a case study site that integrates roof, surface and underground drainage networks. Results illustrate the possible change in frequency of system failure, identified in this case as gutter overtopping. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

The National Health Service (NHS) Estate in England comprises more than 30 Mm2 with 18.83 Mm2 of acute hospital accommodation on 330 sites. There is concern about the resilience of these buildings in a changing climate, informed by the experience of recent heatwaves. However, the widespread installation of air conditioning would disrupt the achievement of ambitious energy reduction targets. The research project ‘Design and Delivery of Robust Hospital Environments in a Changing Climate’ is attempting to estimate the resilience of the NHS Estate on the basis of current and projected performance, using an adaptive comfort model. This paper presents results relating to a 1920s traditionally built block with open ‘Nightingale’ wards, a representative type. The paper demonstrates the relative resilience of the type, and illustrates a series of light-touch measures that may increase resilience while saving energy.Practical application: The results presented in this paper will be of value to NHS Trusts: Estates staff charged with operating buildings as well as Boards and others involved in decision-making. It will also find an audience with policymakers in central government and the Department of Health, as well as those who own, operate or are tasked with working on non-domestic buildings with heavy traditional construction. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

The main purpose of this research is to develop a practical operation model for water conservation, in responding to the challenges of climate change, to propose a solution for urban drought period. This paper presents an urban drought-prevention model with allocation to prevent-drought using abundant idle raft foundation of existing buildings and the information of urban reservoir implemented by linear programming. The proposed model is developed to provide substantial demand for residential water utilisation during a period of urban drought. This operation model is of adaptable system underpinned by sustainable water management principles. The simulation and validation assumed that the water used is the rainwater and just to flush the toilets. According to the results of this research, the proposed model has been proven to be practicable and feasible for urban drought-prevention solution. Practical implications: This research illustrates the important contribution of abundant idle capacity in existing building raft foundations. This paper also shows the sustainable water management technologies and the solution for the designer, which has the opportunity to implement and adapt to the best benefit for water conservation and sustainability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The use of building simulation programmes for predicting building performance is increasing all the time especially with the advent of cheap, fast computers. Hourly weather data, in particular outdoor dry bulb temperature (DBT) and solar radiation values, are required for simulation programmes for building performance. When hourly values are not available there are algorithms for generating hourly temperature values from daily values. These use the daily maximum temperature TMAX, and daily minimum temperature, TMIN. However, climate prediction models, such as HadCM3 and HadRM3 also provide the daily average dry-bulb temperature TAVEas well as the daily maximum and minimum. The average temperature is important for selecting weather years and also because the average temperature is often different from the average of the maximum and minimum, assumed in the simpler algorithms. Buildings being designed now will need to perform under future weather conditions with climate change, so the downscaling of daily values from climate prediction models to hourly values is required. This paper describes a new, more accurate algorithm for generating hourly temperature values in the UK that uses all three temperature parameters from climate change models, and demonstrates the improvement of the quality of the generated values against traditional algorithms that use just the daily maxima and minima. Practical application: The proposed algorithm for generating hourly DBT values from daily maximum, minimum and average values is intended primarily for deriving hourly data for running building simulation programmes, as some weather stations and future climate prediction models only provide daily values of weather parameters. Climate change is affecting all aspects of human life, and as well as being affected by climate change, buildings can also affect the degree of climate change, since well-designed buildings will require less energy to run, thus minimising the amount of carbon dioxide emitted. As the climate is predicted to change significantly in the next 100 years, if buildings are designed to last, it is important for designers to know how buildings will respond and perform then. Building simulation programmes are useful for this, but they require hourly weather data which are not provided by most climate prediction models. By having a quality-assured algorithm for down-scaling the raw daily values to hourly values, data from climate prediction models, such as HadCM3 and HadRM3 can be used for building simulations for any location in the world. The hourly DBTs derived from using the algorithm suggested in this paper may also be used in conjunction with other hourly weather data, such as wet-bulb temperature, solar irradiance, cloud cover and wind speed, derived from the same dataset. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper describes the development, testing and validation of a simple steady-state hygrothermal bed model (BED) which predicts conditions of temperature and relative humidity within the bed core (the occupied space between mattress and covering), given the temperature and relative humidity of the bedroom. BED is the second of three simple steady-state models that in combination allow the impact of modifying bedroom hygrothermal conditions on dust mite populations to be assessed. The first of the trio is Condensation Targeter II, an existing validated model that predicts average monthly conditions of temperature and relative humidity within the bedroom. These conditions are then used as boundary conditions for the BED model which predicts hygrothermal conditions within the bed core. Finally, these outputs are in turn used as inputs to a simple Mite Population Index (MPI) model (to be described elsewhere) that predicts their likely effect on house dust mite population growth in the bed. As reported here, BED has been validated using monitored bedroom and bed data for a full year in three dwellings and the results show that the steady state model predicts monthly bed hygrothermal conditions with a reasonable degree of accuracy. Using Condensation Targeter II and BED in combination, a sensitivity study has been carried out to assess the impact of changes in input parameters of both models on hygrothermal conditions in the bed core. This highlights the importance that the design of the fabric and services of the building has on the hygrothermal conditions in a bed. The impact of climate change has also been assessed using future climate change scenarios. Practical application: This paper describes in detail a simple steady-state model, (BED) which is used to predict the monthly average temperature and relative humidity within a bed, given the ambient conditions within the bedroon. The input parameters, output parameters and the model formulae are provided so that the model can be easily implemented. BED is the second of three simple models that are used to predict, first the bedroon conditions (Condensation Targeter II), second the bed conditions (BED) and finally the likely effect on house dust mite population growth using a simple Mite Population Index (MPI). The Condensation Targeter II and MPI models are described in detail elsewhere. The suite of models allows the testing of the impact of dwelling design and occupant use on likely mite population growth and therefore the health risks of the occupants. It also allows the impact of climate change to be analysed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Buildings and plant are designed utilizing near-extreme weather data. The present data used are briefly discussed, including manual near-extreme percentiles for manual design and hourly data for simulation on a PC (test reference years and design summer years, and near-extreme periods). However, with climate change occurring, designs based on current data will produce uncomfortable summer thermal conditions within and around buildings in the future. This expected change is especially relevant now, as buildings have to last typically from 50 to 100 years. Climate change data for the future are needed to assess the performance of buildings and plant in the future. The Hadley Centre climate change models could provide such data. In this paper analysis of extreme data from one model, the HadCM3 model (south-east England grid box) with an appropriate climate change scenario, are considered in relation to their use for design assessment. Dry bulb temperature and solar irradiance extreme values are considered in this paper. The expected trend in both minimum and maximum temperature is for both to increase with time, but the maxima are found to rise faster than the minima. There are two factors influencing the solar radiation estimates, the basic clarity of the atmosphere and the seasonal amount of cloud. The latter is predicted to increase slightly in winter and decrease slightly in summer. The variations in the predicted short-wave radiation values reflect the expected combined impacts of these two factors. The implications of these results are briefly discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

While weather changes from day to day, climate change occurs on a time scale far in excess of a human lifetime. Climate had been changing dramatically even before humans evolved on Earth. Notwithstanding this, there is evidence supporting an accelerated global warming trend over the last century. Scientists agree that much of the global warming can be attributed to increases in certain greenhouse gases, notably water vapour and carbon dioxide. What scientists disagree over is what amount of the greenhouse effect is due to human activity. This paper's purpose is to quantify, through computer simulations, the increased cooling loads imposed by recognized climate change models and give designers a framework within which to set goals for new building efficiency measures. The paper does not include proposals for methods of reducing energy consumption in buildings – instead, it demonstrates the probable impact global warming trends have on buildings' cooling loads and vice versa. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A typical meteorological year (TMY) for Poland was developed in 2004, on the basis of climatic data collected from 1971 to 2000. Due to the observed tendency of global warming, the buildings’ energy performance obtained with the use of TMY may differ from the actual heating and cooling demand. This research compares energy demand calculated using TMY and climatic data collected from 2001 to 2012. Calculations were made by means of a simulation computer program, designed for dynamic analyses of buildings and installation systems. The analyses concerned typical living quarters in a multifamily residential building located in Warsaw. According to the results, TMY is useful for estimating the heating demand of existing buildings. Cooling demand calculated with the use of TMY was, however, up to 37% lower in comparison with the mean cooling demand for subsequent years. This may distort the energy needs and indoor environment conditions in summer, and create discomfort while using existing and new buildings.Practical application: The paper presents comparison between energy demand calculated with the use of typical meteorological year (TMY) based on the climatic data from the period of 1971 to 2000, and real climatic data from subsequent 12 years, 2001–2012. There is substantial difference in the results presenting cooling demand in buildings evaluated with the use of both datasets. Unless national energy certification procedures are updated, this may cause serious faults in building design, due to incorrect assessment of internal conditions in new and existing buildings, and higher than expected energy use in summer. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we estimate the climatological impact of urbanisation in the UK as derived from the present and historical set of temperature observations from the UK network of meteorological observing stations. A well-established method for interpolation of in-situ temperature observations is used to make an estimate of temperatures at urban weather station locations based on rural climate data. This method avoids reliance on simple pairing of urban–rural stations commonly used for station-based analysis, and explicitly accounts for other topographic features such as elevation and coastal effects that will introduce geographical differences in temperature. The method is then applied to select a network of 'rural' weather stations deemed to be largely free from the direct influence of urban micro-climate effects. Comparison of the temperature grids derived from the 'urban' and 'rural only' station sets enables quantification of climatological urban heat island intensity across the UK and the influence on temperature in the UK national observational network observations from urban stations. Practical application: This new method allows the estimation of the urban heat island for towns and cities of any size. Researchers will find it useful when making predictions of the urban heat island and of climate change in the urban environment, and when investigating morbidity and mortality due to overheating in buildings. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The late 1970s design for the Rosie Maternity Hospital on the Addenbrookes campus in Cambridge is a recurring type across the UK National Health Service, a framed three-storey courtyard configuration in brick masonry. It was selected as a case study project for the ‘Design and Delivery of Robust Hospitals in a Changing Climate’ project, pursuing the methodology developed for that research. Temperature data were collected in representative spaces within the hospital, over a two-year period. These revealed overheating in mild conditions relative to an observed 24℃ threshold for sleep but concealed within the customary 28℃ threshold marking the upper limit of acceptable conditions. The building was modelled using current climate data to predict 2010 conditions. The model was then calibrated against the observed 2010 data and used to predict the likely internal temperatures in current and 2030s. The results indicated an increase in peak temperatures. Four adaptive intervention schemes were subsequently developed: an ‘enlightened’ industry standard ‘Passivhaus’-type option providing superinsulation, sealed glazing and heat recovery; a lower technology-based scheme promoting natural cross-ventilation by providing greater opening glazing area, opening up the plan, sunshading and additional insulation; an enhanced natural ventilation scheme glazing over the courtyards to provide supply air winter gardens, and an advanced natural ventilation option pursuing passive downdraught cooling. All four schemes were modelled using the projected current and 2030s weather data and their performance was compared. The schemes were fully costed to yield relative ‘value for money’ guidance to National Health Service Trusts.Practical application: The Heat wave Plan for England 2014 warns National Health Service (NHS) organisations of the risks to patients, particularly the very young, the elderly and the seriously ill, from extreme summer heat events.1 The Chief Medical Officer in her introduction challenges each NHS locality to plan well in advance of hot spells, as appropriate. This paper describes the likely extent of overheating risk and a series of potential adaptation plans for a recurring NHS hospital building type. As a consequence, estates and facilities decision makers in NHS organisations and Public Health England officers charged with the mitigation of risk resulting from overheating of wards and clinical spaces will benefit directly in their necessary decision making from the findings. Policy makers in the Department of Health and policy advisors in the NHS Sustainable Development Unit and the Climate Change Committee Adaptation Sub-Committee will benefit from the evidence presented in advising the NHS and Department of Health. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

This paper investigates the risk of projected post-2050s overheating in existing, retrofitted and new-build dwellings in the United Kingdom. As shown in the previous research, passive measures may not be sufficient in mitigating overheating risk. Therefore, mechanical cooling technologies that may be deployed to ‘adapt’ to a warming climate are tested for energy and CO2 implications. For retrofits, heating demand is projected to remain dominant, whereas in post-2016 new-build, greater cooling system efficiency will be important. Thermal mass is shown to reduce future cooling load. The heat recovery element of mechanical ventilation with heat recovery may be rendered unnecessary in super-efficient homes. Ceiling fans coupled with natural ventilation may be sufficient in providing thermal comfort in the north of England. Ultimately, not planning for future overheating and cooling systems could create a new performance gap in design, construction and occupant behaviour.Practical application: Overheating, already experienced in dwellings throughout the United Kingdom and projected to increase in occurrence, should be considered in all new design and retrofit. Dwellings designed to meet thermal comfort performance targets may be at risk of non-compliance as a result of a warming climate. Furthermore, dwellings designed to meet energy performance targets may be at risk of non-compliance as a result of potential need for cooling systems. The findings have implications for policy-making in relation to decarbonisation of the electricity grid, implementation of the Green Deal and upgrading building regulations to future-proof new and existing housing against a warming climate. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

This paper concerns the impacts of future climate change under two forcing scenarios on energy demand of commercial building and residential buildings with different energy-saving levels in Tianjin. Heating load of commercial building will decrease under the two scenarios in the next 90 years but increase of cooling load is found. All residential buildings will decrease heating load in the future 90 years. In particular, the decreasing rate of energy demand during 2011–2100 by the residential building slows down from the first- to the third-stage energy-saving levels. Additionally, the difference in energy demand between the two scenarios becomes smaller as the energy-saving level increases. These suggest that higher energy-saving levels are beneficial for decreasing not only energy consumption but also its sensitivity to climate change. Practical application: Climate change in the future causes the large and significant increase in cooling energy demand but decrease in heating energy demand. This would be helpful for the adjustment of energy use strategy by government. Also, the possible changes in future energy demands for heating and cooling will be of interest to energy providers. The responses of heating energy demand to the future climate change show large difference among the residential buildings with different energy-saving levels. This will provide useful information for policy makers and building industry managers on how to make appropriate measures keep occupants comfort and reduce energy use. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

The Low Carbon Futures Project, as part of the Adaptation and Resilience to Climate Change (ARCC) programme, has developed an overheating tool, based on probabilistic UK Climate Projections (UKCP09), to provide design advice for building adaptations in future. For dwellings this tool, initiated by a single simulation, relies on just hourly climate information to predict the internal temperature profile and for a non-domestic building, it includes internal activity profiles to account for lighting, equipment, metabolic gains and air change. To produce a tailored design tool, a qualitative investigation has been carried out to understand current building practices. This investigation shows that the two sectors take a significantly different approach to design, where dynamic building simulation is rare for domestic developments. The diversity of the non-domestic building stock poses different challenges and requires more detail to perform any overheating analysis, with dynamic building simulation playing a key role. The suitability of this tool, and the need to balance complexity and detail with usability and applicability, will be explored for the two sectors, with an approach for implementing this in the future proposed.Practical application: This paper compares current overheating analyses, as reported through correspondence with practitioners, with a suggested approach for a more detailed future overheating assessment using the latest climate projections. The required steps to bridge the gap between current and possible future design methods are explored for both the domestic and non-domestic sectors, with a prototype tool proposed that has been formulated with the aid of industry feedback. The described project is therefore able to translate complex building and climate science into an approach that is potentially useful for building practitioners. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

This paper examines the likely effects on gas and electricity consumption and carbon emissions from heating and cooling systems in existing dwellings up to 2080, assuming a widespread uptake of cooling systems. This area of research is highly sensitive to the myriad of possible inputs and thus holds a wide range of predicted outcomes. However, general trends have been found, showing significant sensitivity to ventilation rate, U-values, occupant behaviour and location. Heating demand will still be dominant over cooling demand in UK dwellings by the 2080s, based on an UKCIP02 A1F1 weather scenario. A national worst case scenario for the 2050s, shows a 10 megatonne CO2 emissions saving on present levels largely due to a 20% reduction in gas consumption. Practical applications: The balance of heating and cooling demand causes more modest changes in CO2 than first anticipated. Despite first perceptions of future energy use in housing and climate change, heating appears to remain the major load rather than cooling, even into the 2080s. These predictions of future CO2 emissions will be useful to those in the building industry planning appropriate proportionate climate adaptation and climate mitigation measures. Also, the prediction of changes to future energy demands from the housing sector will be of interest to energy providers considering future demands for heating and cooling and may feed into larger bottom-up energy models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper intends to show how benchmarks can help in the audit of a HVAC system and how these benchmarks can be generated. The work presented is part of the European 'AUDITAC' project. How can an auditor declare that a given HVAC is 'consuming too much'? He can't make any judgment, if not having some reference, i.e. some 'benchmarks' available. Focus is given here to cooling regime, but even then, heating cannot be forgotten (for example, the remaining heating demand can be satisfied thanks some recovery on the condensers of the chillers). The dramatic question is: what should be the consumption(s) for such a building, in such a climate, with such occupancy, such internal loads and such actual indoor environment? Better than to look for a (very hypothetical) global weather index, similar to heating degree-days, it seems more rational to run a simulation model on a few thousands of hours, corresponding to one (or to several) cooling season(s). Current performances of simulation tools make this approach very expedient. The climate can then be considered as it is, without any simplification. The main simplification is still welcome on the system (building-HVAC) side, in order to get calculation robustness, easy understanding and easy parameter identification. In this perspective, the building has to be subdivided in a very limited number of zones and only a few components of the HVAC system have to be included in the simulation model, with as simple as possible control strategies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Buildings typically have a long life span, which can easily reach 50 or 100 years. In the light of expected climate change it is therefore important to look towards the future, and to analyse how buildings will cope with the changes in climate that are predicted by the climatologists. In such long-term predictions of building performance, uncertainties play a large role. This paper describes a preliminary study that aims to better map out the consequences of dealing with a whole range of uncertainties in the specific case of predicting the effect of climate change on the energy use and thermal comfort (overheating) in the large stock of terraced houses in the UK. Uncertainties in climate change prediction are compared with other variable factors like building occupancy patterns, actual thickness of construction materials and HVAC control settings. Uncertainties have been propagated in a transient model of these terraced houses using the transient simulation program EnergyPlus. In order to explore the large range of input variants use has been made of a genetic algorithm. The current search and solution spaces are discussed, putting the impact of climate change in perspective with regards to other changes and developments that might increase or decrease overheating. Overall, the findings indicate that uncertainties in long term thermal performance predictions run high, with standard deviations of over 100%. However, the robustness of the contemporary dwelling design is fortunately high. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The past 10 years have witnessed significant changes in the way roof drainage systems are understood and designed. In particular, there has been a step-change in the confidence with which siphonic roof drainage systems may be specified and expected to perform. These changes have occurred whilst urban drainage design in general has been revolutionized by wider acceptance of Sustainable Urban Drainage Systems and greater public concern regarding pluvial flooding within the context of climate change. This text considers, in detail, both how roof drainage systems are designed and how they should be expected to perform. Particular attention is drawn to weaknesses in accepted design methods. Consideration is also given to 'innovative' roof drainage related approaches such as green roofs and rainwater harvesting. Practical application: Over the past few years there have been many changes in how roof drainage systems are specified and designed. On large buildings, technologies such as 'siphonic roof drainage' are now commonplace and there is an ever increasing demand for 'green roofs' to be specified due to their potential to 'green' developments. Based on ongoing research, this paper details how these different types of roof drainage solutions can be efficiently designed and what levels of performance can be expected. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Building design has traditionally assumed an unchanging climate. Various weather statistics are used for design calculations. These numbers are by definition fixed in an unchanging climate, but most will change if climate change is occurring. This requires a re-examination of the weather design criteria for buildings. Regular updating may be sufficient, but has the disadvantage of always being retrospective, and other approaches may be needed. Severe weather events and global temperature patterns are well documented, but little work has been done to look at the trends in climate statistics for building design. This paper presents trends in some key weather statistics used in building design over the period 1977–1999. Finally, some conclusions are drawn on the use of climate statistics for building design when climate change is occurring. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Results of the first studies specifically dedicated to the impact of climate change on the thermal behaviour of buildings in Portugal are discussed within this paper. A top-down econometric/statistical analysis was attempted in order to correlate fluctuations of temperature and energy consumption in the residential and services sectors, but the results were not conclusive. A bottom-up numerical thermal simulation of representative buildings for various regions of Portugal was more successful. Unlike most studies for northern countries, it is predicted that the energy demand for space conditioning in Portugal would greatly increase by the end of the twenty-first century, assuming fixed characteristics of the building sectors. The heating season is shorter and the heating thermal load reduced (with HadCM3 model scenarios, less 250-410 kWh for residences, less 5-7 kWh/m[sup 2] for offices), but these economies are offset by an extended cooling season and large increases of the cooling thermal loads (additional 500-880 kWh for residences, 19-24 kWh/m[sup 2] for offices). Higher resolution studies using HadRM data resulted in yet more serious climate change impacts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Most computer programs that analyse the yearly performance of buildings require an input of historical series of weather data measured at the location of interest. However, analyses of climate change scenarios needs hourly weather data series that allow realistic changes in various weather parameters. This can not be done easily with the reference years based on measured weather data normally used. In this paper a weather generator is proposed in which climate changes can be implemented. Based on weather data observed over years a stochastic weather model is developed. This model is used to make a general model independent of the location and with which climate changes can be simulated. The general model can be adapted to a local climate change. Only new averaged values of the weather variables being the result of a climate change should be used as input. The model is able to generate hourly weather data that can be used as input for all kind of simulation programs to study the effect of climate change on the design and energy consumption of HVAC systems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The urban heat island intensity is the difference in temperature between a site close to the centre of a city and a site close to but outside the city (the rural site). The urban heat island intensity varies continuously throughout the day and is strongly dependent on the weather conditions at the time. The most important weather parameters are the wind speed, the cloud cover and the solar radiation. We have developed an empirical model for the urban heat island intensity and applied it to a site near the centre of Manchester and a rural site at Rostherne, approximately 17 km away. Weather data from the Met Office station at Rostherne are available from the British Atmospheric Data Centre. Our model uses the measured wind speed, the measured cloud cover and the measured solar radiation from Rostherne. The parameters of the model are adjusted to give a best fit to the measured urban heat island intensity for the year 2014. The model is then used to predict the hourly urban heat island intensity for the first six months of 2015, obtaining good results especially as the values of the parameters are not changed throughout the year and the model does not make use of the temperatures at either site. The accuracy of the model is such that if used for a basic heating and cooling load calculations the accuracy of the annual demand is high.Practical applications: Many buildings that building services engineers and other building designers design are in urban or city centres. However, the weather data for their designs are based on near-rural weather data which do not include the urban heat island effect. This paper describes a method to ascertain the urban heat island effect in the centre of Manchester. A designer could apply this for Manchester and as an initial indication to other similar urban areas. This will allow the rural weather data to be adjusted on an hourly basis for the urban heat island effect throughout the year. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Siphonic roof drainage systems are an efficient method of removing rainwater rapidly from roofs. Siphonic roof drainage systems are designed to run full-bore, resulting in sub-atmospheric system pressures, higher driving heads and higher system flow velocities. Hence, siphonic roof drainage systems normally require far fewer downpipes, and the depressurised conditions also mean that much of the collection pipework can be routed at high level, thus reducing the extent of any underground pipework. But, they work properly at only one roof run-off rate and therefore suffer from sizing and operational problems that limit their performance. Climate change is creating situations where normal ranges of rainfall intensity are being frequently exceeded, and this may have an impact on the performance of siphonic roof drainage systems. A multiple parallel pipe siphonic roof drainage system appears to offer benefits and avoids sizing problems associated with current siphonic roof drainage systems. A movable cap covering the inlet to a small bank of parallel pipes has the potential to avoid noise associated with making and breaking siphonic action through flow modulation. Laboratory scale tests demonstrate the basic feasibility of the multiple parallel pipe system and indicate that handover of flow between pipes occurs smoothly and that the flow modulation cap functions reliably. This technology includes moving parts and smaller diameters (19 mm ID) than are currently accepted (32 mm ID) in the British Standards and product development will be required.Practical application: Original research detailing an innovative development of a multi-pipe siphonic roof drainage system. This provides a wide design flow rate range and flow modulation caps reduce noise significantly by avoiding priming failure. Potentially extends the technique to a smaller building size than with current siphonic systems and offers climate change resilience potential. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

The air conditioning systems play an important role in providing a comfortable and safe environment for occupants as well as a suitable condition to store books in the library via proper control of the indoor conditions. This paper presents the research conducted on the maximum required cooling load based on the climate change scenario in the future for a large building. In order to present the worst-case condition inside the library, the maximum number of heat gain from occupants and electrical devices is considered. For this research, the main library of University of Malaya is selected for data collection, analysis and simulation. The existing air conditioning systems are modelled via TRNSYS software as a baseline model. Three sets of future Typical Meteorological Year (TMY2) data files for Kuala Lumpur are developed in the UK to be used for simulation in the TRNSYS to analyse the maximum required cooling load for two sections of the main library building. Based on the comparison of the result in the year 2000, it can be estimated that the required cooling load for years 2020 and 2050 is estimated to be increased from 4.1% to 4.8% and 10% to 11.8%, respectively.Practical application: The good amount of technical information of real application conducted on the required maximum cooling load in a large building for years 2020 and 2050 is estimated to increase from 4.1% to 4.8% and 10% to 11.8% respectively in the tropics could be used as an important guide for building services engineers and researchers who are intending to optimise HVAC&R system design in large buildings operating in tropical countries in the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Editorial. Discusses issues related to climate change and its impact on building design in Great Britain. Failure of the Johannesburg Summit; Weather statistics between 1990 and 2000; Account of a related convention.

It has been shown by many researchers that over a long term there has been a slow but steady rise of ambient temperature within the Indian sub-continent. Due to an increased economic prosperity there has been an accompanied increase in the urban heat island effect. Furthermore, urbanisation of large cities in India has also led to higher population densities. The above factors had the combined effect of a significant increase of cooling load of buildings. The high density of dwellings and other building construction has resulted in shading of walls. However, the flat roof spaces are exposed to an uninterrupted solar radiation regime and this in turn leads to generation of high sol-air temperatures which cause higher cooling loads. Presently, it has been argued that roof spaces are one of the major contributors to building cooling load. In this article, the reasons behind the phenomenal rise in the installation of air-conditioners in India are reviewed. The dual role of roof-top PV systems in electricity generation and reduction of building cooling load due to the shading they provide is then investigated. For this purpose, the CIBSE method to obtain sol-air temperature with solar radiation and outdoor ambient temperature has been used. Sol-air temperature for five key Indian locations (Delhi, Bhopal, Ahmedabad, Bhubaneswar and Chennai), based on the recently presented data by the NREL-India Meteorological Department consortium, were then obtained. A computer simulation routine was presently developed for solving the classical transient heat conduction problem with hourly sol-air temperature data and roof construction details provided to the routine. This program was executed to obtain the cooling load profile for each of the five Indian locations for the respective design day.Practical application: The present work reviews the reasons behind the phenomenal rise in the installation of air-conditioners in India. The dual role of roof-top PV systems in electricity generation and reduction of building cooling load due to the shading they provide has been investigated. The computer simulation demonstrated that the energy required for roof-induced cooling load decreased between 73% and 90% after installation of the PV system. The method used in this work has the advantage that it enables the user to obtain cooling load estimates using a general transient heat conduction approach. Moreover, all software was developed within MS-Excel environment, this is also an additional advantage as the cost associated with purchase and training of proprietary building energy software can be prohibitive for many consultants who are based in developing countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this study, test reference year (TRY) data for three UK cities are generated from the new UKCP09 climate change projections1 for a variety of future time horizons and carbon emission scenario assumptions. The data are applied to the energy simulation of three commercial buildings and one house for the three city locations (London, Manchester and Edinburgh), three future time horizons in this century and three carbon emission scenarios. Results are compared with those generated using alternative TRYs from two other research groups who used UKCP091 as well as with the existing TRY data sets which form the CIBSE Future Weather Years2 in order to produce robust results. Results of future simulations of peak summer operative temperatures, peak cooling demand, annual cooling energy, peak heating demand and annual heating energy are presented for the four building case studies benchmarked against control weather data for the period 1960–1989. The results show increasing internal operative temperatures (non-air-conditioned) and increasing air-conditioning demands (air-conditioned) throughout this century and though peak heating demands remain similar to control data, annual heating energy consumptions can be expected to fall sharply.Practical applications: Currently, practitioners can use Test Reference Years for use in building energy simulations. In 2009, the CIBSE released Future Weather Years, which go further by allowing practitioners to explore the thermal and comfort behaviour of buildings at future time horizons thus helping to ‘future proof’ a design. In 2009, the United Kingdom Climate Impacts Programme released a new generation of climate change scenario data (the UKCP09 climate change projections) using probabilistic methods. These are the most comprehensive data yet and provides a greater degree of detail than was available to generate the CIBSE Future Weather Years. It is therefore likely that the new data will gradually become the normal basis for investigating future building thermal and comfort response. In this study, a sample of TRY is generated from the UKCP09 data and applied to the simulation of a sample of ‘real’ buildings. The results are compared with both the existing CIBSE Future Weather Years as well as with Test Reference Years generated using UKCP09 by two other research groups. The results provide a robust way forward for simulating building thermal and comfort response using future weather data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Traditionally, hourly weather years such as the test reference years (TRYs) and design summer years (DSYs) have been used for building energy and thermal performance analysis. Until recently, these weather datasets were based on observed measurements, but the need to adapt buildings to the impacts of likely future climate change has introduced a requirement to incorporate climate projections, such as the UK Climate Projections (UKCP09), into building performance analysis. Four research projects, funded by the EPSRC, examined the use of UKCP09 data, and the associated Weather Generator tool, in producing weather files appropriate for building simulation. A methodology called ‘morphing’, previously used to create the currently available to practitioners, UK Climate Impacts Programme (UKCIP02) based, CIBSE Future Weather Years, will also be discussed here as a potential alternative for the production of UKCP09-based weather files. This article reviews all above methodologies developed to produce weather files for building simulation, using the UKCP09 projections, and discusses their benefits and limitations as well as their ease of use by designers.Practical application: This article aims to provide a comprehensive review of the various methodologies currently available for the production of future weather files for building thermal and energy performance simulation using the UKCP09 projections. This analysis aims to provide users with the benefits and limitations associated with each methodology and end product based on their accessibility, consistency with other currently used datasets, computational resources required and spatial availability. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

In the future with climate change, building designers may need to demonstrate to clients that their buildings will continue to provide a comfortable environment under future weather conditions. Building simulation modelling can be used to this end provided that suitable weather files can be constructed. This article describes the use of the latest climate projections from UKCIP (UKCP09 data) and a method of constructing an hourly weather file for the following parameters: dry-bulb temperature, relative humidity, cloud cover, solar irradiation (direct and diffuse), wind speed and wind direction. For a given future scenario, the approach used first selects appropriate months from 3000 years of UKCP09 data to construct a Test Reference Year (TRY). Unfortunately, the UKCP09 hourly data has no wind or cloud data, and the solar irradiance is uncorrected at low sun angles. This article describes algorithms for calculating wind speed and cloud cover from the UKCP09 data. From this data, a TRY can be constructed and formatted to be suitable for use with commonly used simulation packages.Practical applications: Building professionals increasingly seek reassurance on how a proposed building will perform under a future rather than historical climate. This article describes a method of processing the latest future climate projections (UKCP09 data released in June 2009) and generating a Test Reference Year (TRY) with the full complement of weather parameters suitable for use by commonly used building simulation programmes. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

The climate is changing, both globally and in the UK. To adapt effectively, engineers and planners need as much information as possible on how the climate will evolve. The UK Climate Impacts Programme (UKCIP) provided this in 2002 with UKCIP02 and the latest data UKCP09, which provides data to a resolution of 5 km square grids over the UK. Data sets from these were used in this study along with the historical measured data for three locations — Bracknell (London), Manchester and Edinburgh — to analyse critically the likely changes that may occur in the key climate variables, that is temperature, sunshine duration and solar irradiation. These parameters have an important bearing on the design and function of buildings and building services.Sunshine duration is the main variable that is used to obtain solar radiation in the UKCP09 5 km grid data. For the grids containing Bracknell, Manchester and Edinburgh, most of the UKCP09 data sets for the years 2050 and 2080 showed abnormally elongated sunshine duration, that is from sunrise to sunset, for clear days. In contrast, the latest historic measured data sets indicate only a third of the above sunshine duration. Note that the latter data are used in cooling load design calculations and for the generation of sol-air temperatures.1 Of particular note was the anomalous occurrence in UKCP09 of late evening sunshine duration. For Bracknell and Edinburgh, the sunshine duration at hour ending 20 and beyond showed substantial amount of predicted sunshine. As a result of this work, corrective action has been proposed for UKCP09 data.Furthermore, a very significant increase was also noted in solar irradiation for UKCP09. For the historic measured data for Bracknell, the clear day noon irradiation is 818 Wh/m 2. For the UKCP09 grid containing Bracknell the 2080 High Emission scenario data gives an average value of 1002 Wh/m2, an increase of 23%. The same trend occurs for Edinburgh, (a present value of 789 Wh/m 2 and the predicted value of 948 Wh/m2, an increase of 20%). Note that compounded with presently found increase of 4—5°C increase for the above locations, the substantial increase in irradiation will have a much more pronounced increase in the cooling load of buildings.An evaluation of the change in the character of solar radiation was also undertaken. This was done by noting the change in the diffuse fraction of global irradiation. For Bracknell and Edinburgh historic data and UKCP09 data 2080 High Emission data set show a drastic decrease, respectively from 0.37 to 0.13 and from 0.33 to 0.14. Diffuse fraction may be used as an indicator of the prevailing sky clarity. If the predictions come true a drastic decrease in the diffuse fraction of this magnitude signifies a radical shift in the character of solar climate for the future. The current solar climate of Bracknell is known for its above average turbidity, the latter stemming from the following factors: inland location, high-density housing, proximity to Heathrow airport and M25 London orbital motorway. Whether such an extreme shift in the sky clarity will occur within a matter of 60—70 years is open to discussion.Practical applications: To adapt effectively against the challenge posed by climate change engineers need to know the extent to which the basic climate variables such as temperature and solar radiation will change. This work has used basic data from the UKCP09 project to analyse the extent of the above change with respect to the basic and other derived data. It was shown that for Scottish and English locations a temperature rise of up to 4—5°C may occur between the present age and the year 2080 for High Emission scenario. It was also shown that the corresponding irradiation strength may increase around 22%. Furthermore, it was also found that if these predictions come true then a drastic decrease in the diffuse fraction of irradiation will produce a radical shift in ... [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

Weather data are used extensively by building scientists and engineers to study the performance of their designs, help compare design alternatives and ensure compliance with building regulations. Given a changing climate, there is a need to provide data for future years so that practising engineers can investigate the impact of climate change on particular designs and examine any risk the commissioning client might be exposed to. In addition, such files are of use to building scientists in developing generic solutions to problems such as elevated internal temperatures and poor thermal comfort. With the publication of the UK Climate Projections (UKCP09) such data can be created for future years up to 2080 and for various probabilistic projections of climate change by the use of a weather generator. Here, we discuss a method for the creation of future probabilistic reference years for use within thermal models. In addition, a comparison is made with the current set of future weather years based on the UKCIP02 projections. When used within a dynamic thermal simulation of a building, the internal environments created by the current set of future weather files lie within the range of the internal environments created by the probabilistic reference years generated by the weather generator. Hence, the main advantages of the weather generator are seen to lie in its potentially greater spatial resolution, its ability to inform risk analysis and that such files, unlike ones based on observed data, carry no copyright.Practical applications: The methodology presented in this article will allow academics and buildings engineers to create realistic hourly future weather files using the future climate data of UKCP09 weather generator. This will allow the creation of consistent future weather years for use in areas such as building thermal simulation. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

The urban heat island (UHI) is a well-known effect of urbanisation and is particularly important in world megacities. Overheating in such cities is expected to be exacerbated in the future as a result of further urban growth and climate change. Demonstrating and quantifying the impact of individual design interventions on the UHI is currently difficult using available software tools. The tools developed in the LUCID (‘The Development of a Local Urban Climate Model and its Application to the Intelligent Design of Cities’) research project will enable the related impacts to be better understood, quantified and addressed. This article summarises the relevant literature and reports on the ongoing work of the project.Practical applications: There is a complex relationship between built form, urban processes, local temperature, comfort, energy use and health. The UHI effect is significant and there is a growing recognition of this issue. Developers and planners are seeking advice on design decisions at a variety of scales based on scientifically robust, quantitative methods. The LUCID project has thus developed a series of tools that (1) quantify the effect of urbanisation processes on local environmental conditions, and (2) quantify the impact of such conditions on comfort, energy use and health. The use of such tools is vital, both to inform policy but also to be able to demonstrate compliance with it. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

Cities are known to exert a significant influence on their local climate, and are generally warmer than their surroundings. However, climate models generally do not include a representation of urban areas, and so climate projections from models are likely to underestimate temperatures in urban areas. A simple methodology has been developed to calculate the urban heat island (UHI) from a set of gridded temperature data; the UHI may then be added to climate model projections and weather data files. This methodology allows the UHI to be calculated on a monthly basis and downscaled to hourly for addition to weather generator data. The UHI intensities produced are found to be consistent with observed data. Practical application: There is overwhelming consensus amongst the scientific community that the Earth's climate is warming. In addition to the effects of climate change the urban heat island (UHI) effect can increase air temperatures significantly in urban areas above those of the rural areas around them. The proposed methodology for calculating the UHI from a set of gridded temperature data allows the UHI to be added to climate model projections such as UKCP09 or HadRM3 and weather data files. The methodology also allows for the temporal downscaling of the UHI from monthly values to hourly data for use in building thermal simulation software. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change will alter expectations about the future to such an extent that past statistics about averages, variability and extremes will no longer be relevant. Scenarios of the future depend upon the rate of greenhouse gas increases (and changes in aerosol distributions) in the atmosphere, and are best produced by coupled ocean-atmosphere climate models. Uncertainties in the scenarios are large, however, not only because future emissions have to be estimated, but also because the climate system is complex and varies considerably from decade to decade naturally. The temporal and spatial scales for which information can be produced generally means that detail can only be developed through downscaling procedures. Until recently, downscaling was generally achieved by statistical means using relationships between spatial scales. Increasingly, downscaling is now being undertaken using regional-scale models embedded within the global model (e.g., for the scale of Europe). Resolutions of 50 km in space at the daily timescale are possible, but just as with the large models there is still a need for model verification, particularly with respect to the daily variability and extremes, the timescale at which much of climate change is perceived by nonatmospheric scientists. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]