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Some of the largest and best-preserved Buddhist art treasure houses in the world, namely the Mogao Grottoes, are located at the northwest edge of the region of the Qinghai-Tibet plateau and are adjacent to the Altun and Qilian mountains, where the geotectonic activity is intense and large earthquakes have occurred. Future earthquakes are one of the major threats to the caves of the Mogao Grottoes; therefore, it is important that their dynamic performance is studied when an earthquake occurs. To understand the dynamic performance of the densely distributed caves under the effect of earthquakes, as well as the long-term stability of the Mogao Grottoes, the stress distribution, deformation characteristics, and peak-acceleration amplification factor were analysed under rare-earthquake conditions using a finite-difference element. The numerical study revealed that the most dangerous state of the caves is the initial time when an earthquake occurs. The obvious tensile stress concentration appeared at the top and the bottom of the caves of the middle floor; the main damage was caused by the shear failure towards the direction of the free face and not by the tensile failure. A large permanent horizontal displacement of the caves occurred after an earthquake, mostly at the densely distributed caves of the middle floor. The acceleration amplification effect of the middle-floor caves was significant; the Fourier amplitudes of the acceleration (which were monitored in all caves) were significantly magnified at the frequencies of 3 ~ 4 Hz and 7 ~ 9 Hz, whereas the Fourier amplitudes of the acceleration which were monitored in the middle-floor caves were almost amplified within the entire frequency range. Although the maximum stress was within the allowed limit and no tensile failure occurred, great permanent inhomogeneous horizontal displacements and large accelerations could have a negative effect on the stability of caves and the preservation of wall paintings. Moreover, it was assumed that the calculation results could serve as a type of guidance and as advice on the preventive protection of the Mogao Grottoes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Mogao Grottoes are among the most famous sites on the World Heritage list. Several large-scale preservation projects were implemented in 1962, 1982, and 2008, respectively, to improve their preservation conditions. According to field investigation and assessment in recent years, the cliff is stable on the whole because of the reinforcement projects. Among them, there are still 42 potentially dangerous bodies, which may not be stable in some conditions. For the purpose of building the monitoring and early warning system and the long-term preventive preservation of the Mogao Grottoes, an innovative analytical method based on the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and Fuzzy-AHP was applied to assess the hazard of potentially dangerous bodies within the cliff. Firstly, the hazard was classified into six groups: very high, high, moderate, low, very low, and no hazard, in this study. Secondly, the AHP method was applied to calculate the impact index of each causative factor, and then the hazard assessment of dangerous bodies was made based on statistical analysis. Finally, the Fuzzy-AHP method was applied to calculate the correlation of each factor and determine the comprehensive hazard class. The results indicate that Fuzzy-AHP seems to be more accurate than AHP in hazard assessment. Meanwhile, there is a very high risk body that can threaten 10 caves, three high risk bodies that can threaten 13 caves, and 15 moderate risk bodies can threaten 69 caves in total, while the remaining bodies are defined as low or very low grades. Overall, the results of this study provide much data and a theoretical model in the construction of a monitoring and early warning system currently. Furthermore, the new numerical simulation method also holds the potential application to assess the hazards of other types of heritage sites. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]