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The Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) identified by Madden and Julian in the early 1970s has been well recognized as the most prominent intraseasonal signal in the tropics. Its discovery and its relationship with other weather phenomena such as tropical cyclones (TCs) are among the most significant advancements in modern meteorology with broad and far-reaching impacts. The original study by Madden and Julian used radiosonde data on Canton Island, and their spectral analysis revealed the signal of a 40–50-day oscillation.It has come to our attention that an earlier study by Xie et al. published in a Chinese journal documented an oscillatory signal of a 45-day period using radiosonde data from several stations between 70° and 125°E in the tropics. The 40–50-day signal found by Xie et al. is strikingly evident without any filtering. Xie et al. identified that occurrences of TCs are correlated with the 40–50-day variation of low-level westerlies at these stations. The original figures in Xie et al.’s article were hand drawn. Their results are verified using data from a longer period of 1958–70. The 40–50-day oscillation in the monsoon westerlies and its relationship with the occurrence of TCs are confirmed and further expanded upon.This study serves the purpose of bringing recognition to the community of the identification of a 40–50-day signal published in Chinese in 1963 and the discovery of the correlation between MJO phases and TC genesis three decades earlier than studies on this subject published outside China.

Anders K. Angstrom was known primarily for his contributions to the field of atmospheric radiation. However, his scientific interests encompassed many diverse topics. This paper describes the contents of two early, remarkable, and, until recently, largely unknown papers by Angstrom on probability forecasting and the use/value of weather forecasts. These papers, entitled “Sannolikhet och Praktisk Vaderleksprognos” (“Probability and Practical Weather Forecasting”) and “On the Effectivity of Weather Warnings,” were published in 1919 and 1922, respectively. Noteworthy features of these two papers include 1) a discussion of the sources of uncertainty in weather forecasting, 2) discourses on the problems of estimating probabilities by means of empirical relative frequencies and forecasters' subjective judgments, 3) the use of a Gaussian model to describe the accuracy of minimum temperature forecasts, 4) the identification of the ratio of the protection costa to the “risked value” if protective action is not tak...

Many of the atmospheric anomalies that occur around built-up areas were described qualitatively in the last century. Stimulated no doubt by the 1968 WMO Brussels Symposium on Urban Climates and by the present widespread interest in the environment of “human settlements,” there has been a recent quantum jump in the number of published papers on urban meteorology, including many attempts to model and quantify the anomalies. This short paper, which is not intended to be a survey, contains some thoughts an a few selected topics. The importance of monitoring beyond the suburban limits is stressed, in view of the interactions between the urban and regional fields of motion. Despite the fact that cities are usually located in irregular terrain, the value of searching for universal results is stressed both on the micro- and mesoscales within and near cities. As part of the design of new studies, inventories of existing data should be made. In many cases, the data banks deserve reexamination from time to ...

This article is a major extract from a position paper addressed to the Executive Director, Governor's Task Force on Public Education Policy, State of Minnesota. The author shows a real and significant underrepresentation by public school students as compared with their private and parochial school counterparts, an impression previously voiced by the Twin Cities Chapter.2 Recommendations are made primarily with an eye to the Minnesota scene, but certain of them may be applicable to other areas of the country.

A hybrid analog-digital computer has been established in the Department of Meteorology and Oceanography of the University of Michigan. It comprises three medium size analog computers, a small, general purpose digital computer, and an analog/digital linkage so that all of the computers can be operated together as a hybrid system. The primary functions of the computer are acquisition and reduction of field data and research in meteorological simulation. It is capable of accepting data acquired on-line from local instruments, or recorded in the field on analog magnetic tape, digital magnetic tape or punched paper tape. These data can then be processed in either analog or digital form or transmitted to a large digital computer via magnetic tape. The analog computers are versatile and of sufficient capacity to be useful for many analog data processing tasks as well as for simulation of atmospheric models such as those used in the study of diffusion and micrometeorology.

Instrumental data from the pre–Industrial Revolution period are important to ­understand climate change. In this paper, the observations made by the French missionary J. Amiot in present-day central Beijing during 1757–62 were processed and analyzed. The observations represent the earliest continuous dataset of meteorological records found in China that have been digitized recently. Comparisons between the Amiot annual temperature range and extreme values with modern observations showed that the observations were read at approximately 0800 and 1500 local solar time (LST) in a well-ventilated outdoor site. The daily maximum, minimum, and mean temperatures (T-max, T-min, and T-mean, respectively) during 1757–62 were determined by examining the relationship between temperature at 0800 and 1500 LST and T-max, T-min, and T-mean in modern reference series. Nearly 260 years ago, Beijing’s climate was typical of an inland temperate monsoon zone with annual T-mean, annual mean T-max, and annual mean T-min being 11.5°, 17.8°, and 6.1°C, respectively; further, the temperatures did not vary considerably from the 1951–1980 temperatures, but differed evidently compared to relatively recent decades (1981–2020). The difference was larger than the magnitudes of global and regional temperature changes. Thus, climate warming since the pre–Industrial Revolution period in the urban areas of Beijing has dominantly occurred over the last four decades. Uncertainties related to the thermometer and observational conditions 260 years ago and the interpolation method used have also been discussed in this paper.

Ten years, 16 fully coupled global models, and hundreds of research papers later, the North American Multimodel Ensemble (NMME) monthly-to-seasonal prediction system is looking ahead to its second decade. The NMME comprises both real-time, initialized predictions and a substantial research database; both retrospective and real-time forecasts are archived and freely available for research and development. Many U.S.-based and international entities, both private and public, use NMME data for regional or otherwise tailored forecasts. The system’s built-in evolution, with new models gradually replacing older ones, has been demonstrated to gradually improve the skill of 2-m temperature and sea surface temperature, although precipitation prediction remains a difficult problem. This paper reviews some of the NMME-based contributions to seasonal climate prediction research and applications, progress on scientific understanding of seasonal prediction and multimodel ensembles, and new techniques. Several prediction-oriented aspects are explored, including model representation of observed trends and the underprediction of below-average temperature. We discuss potential new directions, such as higher-resolution models, hybrid statistical–dynamical techniques, or prediction of environmental hazards such as coastal flooding and the risk of mosquito-borne diseases.

Global urban population is projected to double by 2050. This rapid urbanization is the driver of economic growth but has environmental challenges. To that end, there is an urgent need to understand, simulate, and disseminate information about extreme events, routine city operations, and long-term planning decisions. This paper describes an effort underway in India involving an interdisciplinary community of meteorology, hydrology, air quality, and computer science from national and international institutes. The urban collaboratory is a system of systems for simulating weather, hydrology, air quality, health, energy, transport, and economy and its interactions. Study and prediction of urban events involve multiscale observations and cross-sector models, heterogeneous data management, and enormous computing power. The consortia program (NSM_Urban) is part of “weather ready cities,” under the aegis of India’s National Supercomputing Mission. The ecosystem “Urban Environment Science to Society” (UES2S) builds on the integrated cyberinfrastructure with a science gateway for community research and end-user service with modeling and interoperable data. The collaboratory has urban computing, stakeholder participation, and a coordinated means to scaffold projects and ideas into operational tools. It discusses the design and the utilization of high-performance computing (HPC) as a science cloud platform for bridging urban environment and data science, participatory stakeholder applications, and decision-making. The system currently integrates models for high-impact urban weather, flooding, air quality, and simulating street- and building-scale wind flow and dispersion. The program with the work underway is ripe for interfacing with regional and international partners, and this paper provides an avenue toward that end.

Aerosol properties are fundamentally different near clouds than away from clouds. This paper reviews the current state of knowledge of aerosol properties in the near-low-cloud environment and quantitatively compares them with aerosols far from clouds, according to remote sensing observations. It interprets observations of aerosol properties from different sensors using satellite, aircraft, and ground-based observations. The correlation (and anticorrelation) between proximity to cloud and aerosol properties is discussed. Retrieval artifacts in the near-cloud environment are demonstrated and quantified for different sensor attributes and environmental conditions. Finally, the paper describes the possible corrections for near-cloud enhancement in remote sensing retrievals. This study is timely in view of science definition studies for NASA’s Aerosol, Cloud, Convection and Precipitation (ACCP) mission, which will also seek to directly link aerosol properties to nearby clouds.

Although both research and practice contend that message consistency is a critical component of effective risk communication, neither provide systematic evidence demonstrating if, when, and where consistency matters. For this reason, meteorologists view message consistency as both a relevant research and operational concern. To address these concerns, members of the weather enterprise organized conference sessions, panels, webinars, and workshops to achieve message consistency, but were unable to make progress without a definition. Fortunately, research scholars in the fields of psychology and communication studies offer important theoretical insights for defining message consistency. As such, this paper takes an important first step by combining the needs of operational meteorologists with insights from social science research to offer a definition of message consistency for the weather enterprise. While it is logical to present both a definition and a recommendation on how to achieve message consistency, the systematic review revealed various research limitations and practical constraints that call into question the feasibility of achieving it. To further bridge research and practice, this paper recommends that researchers and practitioners collaboratively develop a message consistency evaluation process for the weather enterprise. A persistent community effort will shed light on when, where, and under which circumstances consistency is necessary, and more importantly, move us one step closer toward achieving a more consistent message within the weather enterprise.

This paper makes a case for why Hawaii is the rainbow capital of the world. It begins by briefly touching on the cultural and historical significance of rainbows in Hawaii. Next it provides an overview of the science behind the rainbow phenomenon, which provides context for exploring the meteorology that helps explain the prevalence of Hawaiian rainbows. Last, the paper discusses the art and science of chasing rainbows.

The NOAA Science Advisory Board appointed a task force to prepare a white paper on the use of observing system simulation experiments (OSSEs). Considering the importance and timeliness of this topic and based on this white paper, here we briefly review the use of OSSEs in the United States, discuss their values and limitations, and develop five recommendations for moving forward: national coordination of relevant research efforts, acceleration of OSSE development for Earth system models, consideration of the potential impact on OSSEs of deficiencies in the current data assimilation and prediction system, innovative and new applications of OSSEs, and extension of OSSEs to societal impacts. OSSEs can be complemented by calculations of forecast sensitivity to observations, which simultaneously evaluate the impact of different observation types in a forecast model system.

This paper synthesizes multiple methods for machine learning (ML) model interpretation and visualization (MIV) focusing on meteorological applications. ML has recently exploded in popularity in many fields, including meteorology. Although ML has been successful in meteorology, it has not been as widely accepted, primarily due to the perception that ML models are “black boxes,” meaning the ML methods are thought to take inputs and provide outputs but not to yield physically interpretable information to the user. This paper introduces and demonstrates multiple MIV techniques for both traditional ML and deep learning, to enable meteorologists to understand what ML models have learned. We discuss permutation-based predictor importance, forward and backward selection, saliency maps, class-activation maps, backward optimization, and novelty detection. We apply these methods at multiple spatiotemporal scales to tornado, hail, winter precipitation type, and convective-storm mode. By analyzing such a wide variety of applications, we intend for this work to demystify the black box of ML, offer insight in applying MIV techniques, and serve as a MIV toolbox for meteorologists and other physical scientists.

In a 2008 paper, using satellite-derived wind speed estimates from tropical cyclones over the 25-yr period 1981–2006, we showed the strongest tropical cyclones getting stronger. We related the increasing intensity to rising ocean temperatures consistent with theory. Oceans have continued to warm since that paper was published, so the intensity of the strongest cyclones should have continued upward as well. Here I show that this is the case, with increases in the upper-quantile intensities of global tropical cyclones amounting to between 3.5% and 4.5% in the period 2007–19 relative to the earlier base period (1981–2006). All basins individually show upward intensity trends for at least one upper quantile considered, with the North Atlantic and western North Pacific basins showing the steepest and most consistent trends across the quantiles.

The marine icicles that form on coastal constructions (e.g., piers and railings) are very common in polar and subpolar areas. The occasional formation of icicles in the coastal zones of the Mediterranean Sea occurs in relation to cold-air outbreaks from the polar region, such as the one presented in this paper in February 2018. The air temperatures over the northern Adriatic Sea, the northernmost part of the Mediterranean, dropped below –2.1°C, a necessary condition for seawater to freeze, with salinity between 38.0 and 38.5 PSU. The formation of icicles on the coastal structures was further enabled by the bora wind and related high seas along the coast. Measurements presented in this paper confirm that the icicles in the Bay of Piran in the Gulf of Trieste (45.55°N) were formed from the seawater. The measured salinity level of the melted icicles, around 9 PSU, is a typical value reported for marine icicles in polar regions.

While Hurricane Harvey will best be remembered for record rainfall that led to widespread flooding in southeastern Texas and western Louisiana, the storm also produced some of the most extreme wind speeds ever to be captured by an adaptive mesonet at landfall. This paper describes the unique tools and the strategy used by the Digital Hurricane Consortium (DHC), an ad hoc group of atmospheric scientists and wind engineers, to intercept and collect high-resolution measurements of Harvey’s inner core and eyewall as it passed over Aransas Bay into mainland Texas. The DHC successfully deployed more than 25 observational assets, leading to an unprecedented view of the boundary layer and winds aloft in the eyewall of a major hurricane at landfall. Analysis of anemometric measurements and mobile radar data during heavy convection shows the kinematic structure of the hurricane at landfall and the suspected influence of circulations aloft on surface winds and extreme surface gusts. Evidence of mesoscale vortices in the interior of the eyewall is also presented. Finally, the paper reports on an atmospheric sounding in the inner eyewall that produced an exceptionally large and potentially record value of precipitable water content for observed soundings in the continental United States.

A consortium of polar scientists combined observational forces in a field campaign of unprecedented complexity to uncover the secrets of clouds and their role in Arctic amplification. Two research aircraft, an icebreaker research vessel, an ice-floe camp including an instrumented tethered balloon, and a permanent ground-based measurement station were employed in this endeavour. Clouds play an important role in Arctic amplification. This term represents the recently observed enhanced warming of the Arctic relative to the global increase of near-surface air temperature. However, there are still important knowledge gaps regarding the interplay between Arctic clouds and aerosol particles, surface properties, as well as turbulent and radiative fluxes that inhibit accurate model simulations of clouds in the Arctic climate system. In an attempt to resolve this so-called Arctic cloud puzzle, two comprehensive and closely coordinated field studies were conducted: the ”Arctic CLoud Observations Using airborne measurements during polar Day (ACLOUD)” aircraft campaign, and the ”Physical feedbacks of Arctic boundary layer, Sea ice, Cloud and AerosoL (PASCAL)” ice breaker expedition. Both observational studies were performed in the framework of the German ”ArctiC Amplification:Climate Relevant Atmospheric and SurfaCe Processes, and Feedback Mechanisms (AC)3” project. They took place in the vicinity of Svalbard (Norway) in May and June 2017. ACLOUD and PASCAL explored four pieces of the Arctic cloud puzzle: Cloud properties, aerosol impact on clouds, atmospheric radiation, and turbulent-dynamical processes. The two instrumented Polar 5 and Polar 6 aircraft, the icebreaker research vessel (RV) Polarstern, an ice-floe camp including an instrumented tethered balloon, and the permanent, ground-based measurement station at Ny-Ålesund (Svalbard) were employed to observe Arctic low and mid-level, mixed-phase clouds, and to investigate related atmospheric and surface processes. The Polar 5 aircraft served as a remote sensing observatory examining the clouds from above by downward-looking sensors; the Polar 6 aircraft operated as a flying in-situ measurement laboratory sampling inside and below the clouds. Most of the collocated Polar 5/6 flights were conducted either above RV Polarstern or over the Ny-Ålesund station, both of which monitored the clouds from below using similar but upward-looking remote sensing techniques as the Polar 5 aircraft. Several of the flights were carried out underneath collocated satellite tracks. The paper motivates the scientific objectives of the ACLOUD/PASCAL observations and describes the measured quantities, retrieved parameters, and the applied complementary instrumentation. Furthermore, it discusses selected measurement results, and poses critical research questions to be answered in future papers analyzing the data from the two field campaigns.

This paper summarizes the successful use of Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite-10 (GOES-10) and -12 (GOES-12), mainly beyond their retirement as operational satellites in the United States, in support of meteorological activities in South America (SA). These satellites were maneuvered by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) to approximately 60°W, enabling other countries in Central and South America to benefit from their ongoing measurements. The extended usefulness of GOES-10 and -12 was only possible as a result of a new image geolocalization system developed by NOAA for correcting image distortions and evaluated in collaboration with the Brazilian National Institute for Space Research. The extension allowed GOES-10 and -12 to monitor SA for an additional 7 years proving the efficiency of this navigation capability implemented for the first time in the GOES series well beyond the expected satellites’ lifetime. Such successful capability is incorporated in the new-generation GOES-R series. This practical and technological experience shows the importance of communication between scientists from the United States and SA for advancing Earth’s monitoring system through the development of novel software and derived products. For SA in particular, GOES-10 and -12 were employed operationally to monitor dry spells, relevant for agriculture and forest fire management and to nowcast severe weather for flash flood warnings. Additionally, GOES-12 detected the first registered tropical hurricane over the Brazilian coast. This paper describes some of the technical and operational challenges faced in extending the GOES-10 and -12 missions to provide coverage over South America and emphasizes the usefulness of their ongoing measurements benefiting Brazilian environmental monitoring.

Advances in knowledge in tropical meteorological research are discussed in the context of contributions made by Professor William M. Gray. Gray pioneered the compositing approach to observational tropical meteorology through assembling of global radiosonde datasets and tropical cyclone research flight data. In the 1970s, he made fundamental contributions to knowledge of convective–larger-scale interactions. Throughout his career, he wrote seminal papers on tropical cyclone structure, cyclogenesis, motion, and seasonal forecasts. His conceptual development of a seasonal genesis parameter also laid an important framework for both seasonal forecasting as well as climate change studies on tropical cyclones. His work was a blend of both observationally based studies and the development of theoretical concepts. This paper reviews the progress in knowledge in the areas where Dr. Gray provided his largest contributions and describes the scientific legacy of Gray’s contributions to tropical meteorology.

The Advanced Baseline Imager (ABI) on board the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite-R (GOES-R) is America’s next-generation geostationary advanced imager. GOES-R launched on 19 November 2016. The ABI is a state-of-the-art 16-band radiometer, with spectral bands covering the visible, near-infrared, and infrared portions of the electromagnetic spectrum. Many attributes of the ABI—such as spectral, spatial, and temporal resolution; radiometrics; and image navigation/registration—are much improved from the current series of GOES imagers. This paper highlights and discusses the expected improvements of each of these attributes. From ABI data many higher-level-derived products can be generated and used in a large number of environmental applications. The ABI’s design allows rapid-scan and contiguous U.S. imaging automatically interleaved with full-disk scanning. In this paper the expected instrument attributes are covered, as they relate to signal-to-noise ratio, image navigation and registration, the various ABI scan modes, and other parameters. There will be several methods for users to acquire GOES-R imagery and products depending on their needs. These include direct reception of the imagery via the satellite downlink and an online-accessible archive. The information from the ABI on the GOES-R series will be used for many applications related to severe weather, tropical cyclones and hurricanes, aviation, natural hazards, the atmosphere, the ocean, and the cryosphere. The ABI on the GOES-R series is America’s next-generation geostationary advanced imager and will dramatically improve the monitoring of many phenomena at finer time and space scales.

Projections of changes in tropical cyclone (TC) characteristics under climate change are of great interest to those affected by TCs. In a recent paper, Knutson et al. combined a large number of previous results to produce projections consisting of distributions of possible future TC frequencies, intensities, and rainfall rates. These distributions provide a great resource for users of TC information. However, to apply the distributions to impacts models may require the user to solve a number of technical challenges including modeling correlations, fitting distributions, interpolation, and converting the projections to properties at landfall. I consider the frequency and intensity changes, and implement solutions for each of these challenges using a combination of recently published research and a new methodology. This allows me to produce a dataset of TC projections that give frequency changes as a function of landfall region and intensity. Mean intensity changes can then be derived from frequency changes. The projections are presented in a format that allows them to be used in impacts models without further processing. The interpolation and landfall adjustments tend to increase the frequency changes. As a result, my projections give increasing mean frequencies of hurricane-strength landfalling TCs in four out of six global basins, with mean frequencies increasing by up to 16% for a 2°C increase in global mean surface temperature. My projections are highly uncertain, but include uncertainty estimates. They are designed to be a useful resource for anyone interested in possible future TC frequencies and intensities.

The presence of persistent heavy fog in northern India during winter creates hazardous situations for transportation systems and disrupts the lives of about 400 million people. The meteorological factors responsible for its genesis and predictability are not yet completely understood in this region. Given its high potential for socioeconomic impact, there is a pressing need for extensive research that understands the inherently complex nature of the phenomena through field observations and modeling exercises. WiFEX is a first-of-its-kind multi-institutional initiative dealing with intensive ground-based measurement campaigns for developing a suitable fog forecasting capability under the aegis of the smart cities mission of India. Measuring campaigns were conducted during the 2015–20 winters at the Indira Gandhi International Airport, New Delhi, covering more than 90 dense fog events. The field experiments involved extensive suites of in situ instruments and gathered simultaneous observations of micrometeorological conditions, radiative fluxes, turbulence, droplet/aerosol microphysics, aerosol optical properties, fog water chemistry, and vertical thermodynamical structure to describe the environmental stability in which fog develops. An operational modeling framework, the WRF Model, was set up to provide fog predictions during the measurement campaign. These field observations helped to interpret the strengths and deficiencies in the numerical modeling framework. Four scientific objectives were pursued: (i) the life cycle of optically thin and thick fog, (ii) microphysical properties in the polluted boundary layer, (iii) fog water chemistry, gas–aerosol partitioning during the fog life cycle, and (iv) numerical prediction of fog. This paper presents an overview of WiFEX and a synthesis of selected observational and modeling analyses/findings related to the abovementioned scientific topics.

U.S. numerical weather prediction (NWP) is critical for both economic reasons and the protection of life and property. Unfortunately, the nation’s global model prediction skill substantially lags the performance of leading international NWP centers, with problems extending to regional prediction. This paper reviews the history of U.S. activities in NWP, describes why U.S. weather prediction is not fulfilling its potential, and proposes actions that could restore U.S NWP to world leadership. Key suggestions include the creation of a U.S. Numerical Weather Prediction Center, better coordination of the efforts of the research and operational NWP communities, and increasing NOAA computational resources by at least tenfold.

Our world is rapidly changing. Societies are facing an increase in the frequency and intensity of high-impact and extreme weather and climate events. These extremes together with exponential population growth and demographic shifts (e.g., urbanization, increase in coastal populations) are increasing the detrimental societal and economic impact of hazardous weather and climate events. Urbanization and our changing global economy have also increased the need for accurate projections of climate change and improved predictions of disruptive and potentially beneficial weather events on kilometer scales. Technological innovations are also leading to an evolving and growing role of the private sector in the weather and climate enterprise. This article discusses the challenges faced in accelerating advances in weather and climate forecasting and proposes a vision for key actions needed across the private, public, and academic sectors. Actions span (i) utilizing the new observational and computing ecosystems; (ii) strategies to advance Earth system models; (iii) ways to benefit from the growing role of artificial intelligence; (iv) practices to improve the communication of forecast information and decision support in our age of internet and social media; and (v) addressing the need to reduce the relatively large, detrimental impacts of weather and climate on all nations and especially on low-income nations. These actions will be based on a model of improved cooperation between the public, private, and academic sectors. This article represents a concise summary of the white paper on the Future of Weather and Climate Forecasting (2021) put together by the World Meteorological Organizations’ Open Consultative Platform.

This paper reviews the impact of World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Aircraft Meteorological Data Relay (AMDAR) observations on operational numerical weather prediction (NWP) forecasts at both regional and global scales that support national and local weather forecast offices across the globe. Over the past three decades, data collected from commercial aircraft have helped reduce flight-level wind and temperature forecast errors by nearly 50%. Improvements are largest in 3–48-h forecasts and in regions where the automated reports 1) are most numerous, 2) cover a broad area, and 3) are available at multiple levels (e.g., made during aircraft ascent and descent). Improvements in weather forecasts due to these data have already had major impacts on a variety of aspects of airline operations, ranging from fuel savings from improved wind and temperature forecasts used in flight planning to passenger comfort and safety due to better awareness of en route and near-terminal weather hazards. Aircraft wind and temperature observations now constitute the third most important dataset for global NWP and, in areas of ample reports, have become the single most important dataset for use in shorter-term, regional NWP applications. Automated aircraft reports provide the most cost-effective data source for improving NWP, being more than 5 times more cost effective than any other major-impact observing system. They also present an economical alternative for obtaining tropospheric profiles both in areas of diminishing conventional observation and as a supplement to existing datasets, both in time and space. An evaluation of moisture observations becoming available from an increasing number of AMDAR-equipped aircraft will be presented in Part II of this paper, including examples of the use of the full array of AMDAR observations in a variety of forecasting situations.

The International Grand Global Ensemble (TIGGE) was a major component of The Observing System Research and Predictability Experiment (THORPEX) research program, whose aim is to accelerate improvements in forecasting high-impact weather. By providing ensemble prediction data from leading operational forecast centers, TIGGE has enhanced collaboration between the research and operational meteorological communities and enabled research studies on a wide range of topics. The paper covers the objective evaluation of the TIGGE data. For a range of forecast parameters, it is shown to be beneficial to combine ensembles from several data providers in a multimodel grand ensemble. Alternative methods to correct systematic errors, including the use of reforecast data, are also discussed. TIGGE data have been used for a range of research studies on predictability and dynamical processes. Tropical cyclones are the most destructive weather systems in the world and are a focus of multimodel ensemble research. Their extratropical transition also has a major impact on the skill of midlatitude forecasts. We also review how TIGGE has added to our understanding of the dynamics of extratropical cyclones and storm tracks. Although TIGGE is a research project, it has proved invaluable for the development of products for future operational forecasting. Examples include the forecasting of tropical cyclone tracks, heavy rainfall, strong winds, and flood prediction through coupling hydrological models to ensembles. Finally, the paper considers the legacy of TIGGE. We discuss the priorities and key issues in predictability and ensemble forecasting, including the new opportunities of convective-scale ensembles, links with ensemble data assimilation methods, and extension of the range of useful forecast skill.

This paper presents an overview of the Lower Atmospheric Boundary Layer Experiment (LABLE), which included two measurement campaigns conducted at the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Program Southern Great Plains site in Oklahoma during 2012 and 2013. LABLE was conducted as a collaborative effort between the University of Oklahoma (OU), the National Severe Storms Laboratory, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL), and the ARM program. LABLE can be considered unique in that it was designed as a multiphase, low-cost, multiagency collaboration. Graduate students served as principal investigators and took the lead in designing and conducting experiments aimed at examining boundary layer processes. The main objective of LABLE was to study turbulent phenomena in the lowest 2 km of the atmosphere over heterogeneous terrain using a variety of novel atmospheric profiling techniques. Several instruments from OU and LLNL were deployed to augment the suite of in situ and remote sensing instruments at the ARM site. The complementary nature of the deployed instruments with respect to resolution and height coverage provides a near-complete picture of the dynamic and thermodynamic structure of the atmospheric boundary layer. This paper provides an overview of the experiment including 1) instruments deployed, 2) sampling strategies, 3) parameters observed, and 4) student involvement. To illustrate these components, the presented results focus on one particular aspect of LABLE: namely, the study of the nocturnal boundary layer and the formation and structure of nocturnal low-level jets. During LABLE, low-level jets were frequently observed and they often interacted with mesoscale atmospheric disturbances such as frontal passages.

The Excessive Rainfall Outlook (ERO), issued operationally from the Weather Prediction Center (WPC), serves the Weather and Water Enterprise and decision-makers with probabilistic guidance and messaging context out to 3 days for excessive rainfall leading to impacts, including flash flooding. Eighty-three percent of all flood-related damages and 39% of all flood-related fatalities reported in Storm Data from 2010 to 2020 occurred in or near an ERO High Risk. Given that a High Risk is issued on only 4% of days, the presence of such risk can serve as an important step in raising situational awareness of a greater likelihood of a damaging and deadly flash flood day. This paper details the operational construction of the ERO at WPC and discusses the role of the ERO in the National Weather Service collaborative forecast process for heavy rainfall. Case studies where the ERO achieved a High Risk are presented for the deadly Montecito, California, flash flood and debris flow (2018) and Hurricane Harvey (2017). More broadly, challenges are highlighted which could be overcome by research to further improve ERO utility.

Winter storms are disruptive to society and the economy, and they often cause significant injuries and deaths. Innovations in winter storm forecasting have occurred across the value chain over the past two decades, from physical understanding, to observations, to model forecasts, to postprocessing, to forecaster knowledge and interpretation, to products and services, and ultimately to decision support. These innovations enable more accurate and consistent forecasts, which are increasingly being translated into actionable information for decision-makers. This paper reviews the current state of winter storm forecasting in the context of the U.S. National Weather Service operations and describes a potential future state. Given predictability limitations, a key challenge of winter storm forecasting has been characterizing uncertainty and communicating the forecast in ways that are understandable and useful to decision-makers. To address this challenge, particular focus is placed on establishing a probabilistic framework, with probabilistic hazard information serving as a foundation for winter storm decision support services. The framework is guided by social science research to ensure effective communication of risk to meet users’ needs. Solutions to gaps impeding progress in winter storm forecasting are highlighted, including better understanding of mesoscale phenomenon, the need for better ensemble calibration, a rigorous and consistent database of observed impacts, and linking multiparameter probabilities (e.g., probability of intense snowfall rates at rush hour) with users’ information needs and decisions.

The unique characteristics of land–air coupling and troposphere–stratosphere interaction over the Tibetan Plateau (TP), the highest landform in the world, play a vital role in weather and climate on regional and global scales. Although a great deal of research has been carried out, large gaps remain in our understanding of TP land–air coupling and its climate effects, due to a lack of observations and the issue of model biases. To address these obstacles, a 10-yr national research program entitled “Changes in the Land–Air Coupled System over the Tibetan Plateau and its Impacts on Global Climate (LASTPIC)” was launched by the National Natural Science Foundation of China in January 2014. What LASTPIC does revolves around three aspects: TP land–air coupled processes; TP’s influence on global climate; and reanalysis and model. This paper mainly focuses on the data collection, scientific understanding, and model development of LASTPIC in terms of TP land–atmosphere–ocean coupling and its global climate impacts since program’s inception.

The Birmingham Urban Climate Laboratory (BUCL) is a near-real-time, high-resolution urban meteorological network (UMN) of automatic weather stations and inexpensive, nonstandard air temperature sensors. The network has recently been implemented with an initial focus on monitoring urban heat, infrastructure, and health applications. A number of UMNs exist worldwide; however, BUCL is novel in its density, the low-cost nature of the sensors, and the use of proprietary Wi-Fi networks. This paper provides an overview of the logistical aspects of implementing a UMN test bed at such a density, including selecting appropriate urban sites; testing and calibrating low-cost, nonstandard equipment; implementing strict quality-assurance/quality-control mechanisms (including metadata); and utilizing preexisting Wi-Fi networks to transmit data. Also included are visualizations of data collected by the network, including data from the July 2013 U.K. heatwave as well as highlighting potential applications. The paper is an open invitation to use the facility as a test bed for evaluating models and/or other nonstandard observation techniques such as those generated via crowdsourcing techniques.

The present paper describes background, mission, research topics, and preliminary results of the research project “Tokyo Metropolitan Area Convection Study for Extreme Weather Resilient Cities (TOMACS)”. TOMACS is one of the research projects of “Social System Reformation Program for Adaption to Climate Change” which has been started since July 2010 under the “Special Coordination Funds for Promoting Science and Technology” of the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology (MEXT). TOMACS aims to understand the processes and mechanisms of extreme weather, using dense meteorological observation networks designed in the Tokyo metropolitan district, to develop a monitoring and predicting system of extreme phenomena (MPSEP), and to implement social experiments on extreme weather resilient cities in collaboration with related government institutions, local governments, private companies, and residents. More than 25 organizations and over 100 people participate in the present research projects. One of unique features of TOMACS is utilization of dense meteorological instruments in the Tokyo Metropolitan area which is one of the most urbanized areas in the world. The field campaign in the Tokyo metropolitan area, using research instruments and operational meteorological networks is planned by MRI and thirteen groups in the summers of 2011-2013 to target the tropospheric environment, boundary layer, initiation of convections and lifecycle of thunderstorms. Observation on environmental conditions of convections are carried out using radio sonde, wind profiler, GPS network, unmanned air viecle, and network of automated weather stations. Generation and development of convective precipitations are investigated by observations using Doppler lidar, rapid scan geostationary satellite, Kuband polarimetric radar, X-band polarimetric radar network (X-NET) and C-band research polarimetric radar and C-band operational Doppler radars. Several thunderstorms were captured by the dense meteorological network during 2011 campaign observations. The present paper shows preliminary results of the analysis. Social experiments on extreme weather resilient city using radar networks are also presented.

The ClearfLo project provides integrated measurements of the meteorology, composition and particulate loading of London's urban atmosphere to improve predictive capability for air quality.Air quality and heat are strong health drivers and their accurate assessment and forecast are important in densely populated urban areas. However, the sources and processes leading to high concentrations of main pollutants such as ozone, nitrogen dioxide, and fine and coarse particulate matter in complex urban areas are not fully understood, limiting our ability to forecast air quality accurately. This paper introduces the ClearfLo project's interdisciplinary approach to investigate the processes leading to poor air quality and elevated temperatures.Within ClearfLo (www.clearflo.ac.uk), a large multi-institutional project funded by the UK Natural Environment Research Council (NERC), integrated measurements of meteorology, gaseous and particulate composition/loading within London's atmosphere were undertaken to understand the processes underlying poor air quality. Long-term measurement infrastructure installed at multiple levels (street and elevated), and at urban background, kerbside and rural locations were complemented with high-resolution numerical atmospheric simulations . Combining these (measurement/modeling) enhances understanding of seasonal variations in meteorology and composition together with the controlling processes. Two intensive observation periods (winter 2012 and summer Olympics 2012) focus upon the vertical structure and evolution of the urban boundary layer, chemical controls on nitrogen dioxide and ozone production, in particular the role of volatile organic compounds, and processes controlling the evolution, size, distribution and composition of particulate matter. The paper shows that mixing heights are deeper over London than in the rural surroundings and the seasonality of the urban boundary layer evolution controls when concentrations peak. The composition also reflects the seasonality of sources such as domestic burning and biogenic emissions.

Peer review holds a central place within the scientific communication system. Traditionally, research quality has been assessed by peer review of journal articles, conference proceedings, and books. There is strong support for the peer review process within the academic community, with scholars contributing peer reviews with little formal reward. Reviewing is seen as a contribution to the community as well as an opportunity to polish and refine understanding of the cutting edge of research. This paper discusses the applicability of the peer review process for assessing and ensuring the quality of datasets. Establishing the quality of datasets is a multifaceted task that encompasses many automated and manual processes. Adding research data into the publication and peer review queues will increase the stress on the scientific publishing system, but if done with forethought will also increase the trustworthiness and value of individual datasets, strengthen the findings based on cited datasets, and increase the transparency and traceability of data and publications. This paper discusses issues related to data peer review—in particular, the peer review processes, needs, and challenges related to the following scenarios: 1) data analyzed in traditional scientific articles, 2) data articles published in traditional scientific journals, 3) data submitted to open access data repositories, and 4) datasets published via articles in data journals.

This paper describes a new snowfall index that quantifies the impact of snowstorms within six climate regions in the United States. The regional snowfall index (RSI) is based on the spatial extent of snowfall accumulation, the amount of snowfall, and the juxtaposition of these elements with population. Including population information provides a measure of the societal susceptibility for each region. The RSI is an evolution of the Northeast snowfall impact scale (NESIS), which NOAA's National Climatic Data Center began producing operationally in 2006. While NESIS was developed for storms that had a major impact in the Northeast, it includes all snowfall during the lifetime of a storm across the United States and as such can be thought of as a quasi-national index that is calibrated to Northeast snowstorms. By contrast, the RSI is a regional index calibrated to specific regions using only the snow that falls within that region. This paper describes the methodology used to compute the RSI, which requires region-specific parameters and thresholds, and its application within six climate regions in the eastern two-thirds of the nation. The process used to select the region-specific parameters and thresholds is explained. The new index has been calculated for over 580 snowstorms that occurred between 1900 and 2013 providing a century-scale historical perspective for these snowstorms. The RSI is computed for category 1 or greater storms in near–real time, usually a day after the storm has ended.

Climate variability on subseasonal to interannual time scales has significant impacts on our economy, society, and Earth’s environment. Predictability for these time scales is largely due to the influence of the slowly varying climate anomalies in the oceans. The importance of the global oceans in governing climate variability demonstrates the need to monitor and forecast the global oceans in addition to El Niño–Southern Oscillation in the tropical Pacific. To meet this need, the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) initiated real-time global ocean monitoring and a monthly briefing in 2007. The monitoring covers observations as well as forecasts for each ocean basin. In this paper, we introduce the monitoring and forecast products. CPC’s efforts bridge the gap between the ocean observing system and the delivery of the analyzed products to the community. We also discuss the challenges involved in ocean monitoring and forecasting, as well as the future directions for these efforts.

A hyperspectral infrared (IR) sounder from geostationary orbit provides nearly continuous measurements of atmospheric thermodynamic and dynamic information within a weather cube, specifically the atmospheric temperature, moisture, and wind information at different pressure levels that are critical for improving high-impact weather (HIW) nowcasting and numerical weather prediction (NWP). Geostationary hyperspectral IR sounders (GeoHIS) have been on board China’s Fengyun-4 series since 2016 and will be on board Europe’s Meteosat Third Generation (MTG) series in the 2024 time frame; the United States and other countries are also planning to include GeoHIS instruments on their next generation of geostationary weather satellites. Although availability of on-orbit GeoHIS data are limited currently, studies have been conducted and progress has been made on developing the applications of high-temporal-resolution GeoHIS observations. These include but are not limited to deriving three-dimensional wind fields for nowcasting and NWP applications, trending atmospheric instability for warning in preconvective environments, conducting impact studies with data from the experimental Geostationary Interferometric Infrared Sounder (GIIRS) on board Fengyun-4A, preparing observing system simulation experiments (OSSEs), and monitoring diurnal variation of atmospheric composition. This paper provides an overview of the current applications of GeoHIS, discusses the data processing challenges, and provides perspectives on future development. The purpose is to provide direction on utilization of the current and assist preparation for the upcoming GeoHIS observations for nowcasting, NWP and other applications.

The Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS), part of the European Union’s Earth observation program Copernicus, entered operations in July 2015. Implemented by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) as a truly European effort with over 23,500 direct data users and well over 200 million end users worldwide as of March 2022, CAMS delivers numerous global and regional information products about air quality, inventory-based emissions and observation-based surface fluxes of greenhouse gases and from biomass burning, solar energy, ozone and UV radiation, and climate forcings. Access to CAMS products is open and free of charge via the Atmosphere Data Store. The CAMS global atmospheric composition analyses, forecasts, and reanalyses build on ECMWF’s Integrated Forecasting System (IFS) and exploit over 90 different satellite data streams. The global products are complemented by coherent higher-resolution regional air quality products over Europe derived from multisystem analyses and forecasts. CAMS information products also include policy support such as quantitative impact assessment of short- and long-term pollutant-emission mitigation scenarios, source apportionment information, and annual European air quality assessment reports. Relevant CAMS products are cited and used for instance in IPCC Assessment Reports. Providing dedicated support for users operating smartphone applications, websites, or TV bulletins in Europe and worldwide is also integral to the service. This paper presents key achievements of the CAMS initial phase (2014–21) and outlines some of its new components for the second phase (2021–28), e.g., the new Copernicus anthropogenic CO2 emissions Monitoring and Verification Support capacity that will monitor global anthropogenic emissions of key greenhouse gases.

Microburst wind shear has caused or contributed to a significant number of aviation accidents. Since 1943, wind shear accidents have been responsible for more than 1,400 fatalities worldwide, including over 400 deaths in the United States between 1973 and 1985. In this paper, we describe one of the more successful and societally impactful research-to-operations (R2O) programs in atmospheric science history. The remarkable R2O journey included the discovery of microburst wind shear in the late 1970s and early 1980s, the scientific efforts to understand this phenomenon and its impact on aircraft operations, the development of a wind shear training program for pilots, and the rapid development, testing, and implementation of wind shear detection systems that successfully saved lives and property. The article includes a chronological description of the wind shear research and development program, key milestones toward implementation, and the research-to-operations best practices employed for successful technology transfer.

Since 2017, the Northern Australia Climate Program (NACP) has assisted the pastoral grazing industry to better manage drought risk and climate variability. The NACP funding is sourced from the beef cattle industry, government, and academia, representing the program’s broad range of aims and target beneficiaries. The program funds scientists in the United Kingdom and Australia, in addition to extension advisers called “Climate Mates” across a region that supports 15 million head of cattle. Many Climate Mates are employed in the cattle sector and have existing relationships in their communities and capacity to meaningfully engage with the program’s intended beneficiaries—red meat producers. The NACP is a prime example of a successful end-to-end program, integrating climate model improvements (research) with tailored forecast products (development), through to direct stakeholder engagement (extension), on-ground application of technologies (adoption), and improvement in industry and community resilience (impact). The climate information needs of stakeholders also feed back to the research and development components, ensuring the scientific research directly addresses end-user requirements. For any scientific research program, ensuring that research output has measurable real-world impact represents a key challenge. This is more difficult in cases where the scientific research is several steps away from the customer’s needs. This paper gives an overview of the NACP and research highlights, discussing how the end-to-end framework could be adapted and applied in other regions and industries. It seeks to provide a roadmap for other groups to follow to produce more targeted research with identifiable real-world benefits.

Ice habit diagrams published prior to 2009—and many since—do not accurately describe in situ observations of ice shapes as a function of temperature and moisture. Laboratory studies and analysis of field observations by Bailey and Hallett in a series of papers in 2002, 2004, and 2009 corrected several errors from earlier studies, but their work has not been widely disseminated. We present a new, simplified diagram based on Bailey and Hallett’s work that focuses on several ice growth forms arising from the underlying surface processes by which mass is added to a crystal: tabular, columnar, branched, side branched, two types of polycrystalline forms, and a multiple growth regime at low ice supersaturations. To aid interpretation for a variety of applications, versions of the ice growth diagram are presented in terms of relative humidity with respect to water as well as the traditional formats of relative humidity with respect to ice and vapor density excess. These diagrams are intended to be understandable and useful in classroom settings at the sophomore undergraduate level and above. The myriad shapes of pristine snow crystals can be described as the result of either a single growth form or a sequence of growth forms. Overlays of data from upper-air soundings on the ice growth diagrams aid interpretation of expected physical properties and processes in conditions of ice growth.