Search

The function I manage at Weyerhaeuser is called the Marketing and Economic Research group or M&ER. The group has been operational at the company for nearly thirty years. The composition, [...]

Abstract This paper presents an overview of the internet sector. The paper begins by introducing key concepts and definitions, particularly around technology, the internet, and the digital economy. It then [...]

Health spending has grown faster than the U.S. economy for decades and currently represents approximately 18% of gross domestic product. As with other sectors of the economy, the COVID-19 pandemic has had a significant impact on this growth of the health sector and the labor force that supports it. This paper examines that impact, describing how health care spending, employment, and prices have evolved since the start of the pandemic, using data from the authors' Health Sector Economic Indicators (HSEI) series. After unprecedented drops in March and April of 2020, both spending and employment have gradually recovered but, by the end of the summer, remained below their pre-COVID levels. Prices, on the other hand, have continued to rise. The paper compares these patterns with those observed in earlier recessions and describes some likely reasons for them. Keywords Health sector * Health spending * Health employment * Health care prices * COVID-19 * Health sector economic indicators, 1 Introduction At nearly 4 trillion dollars in annual revenues and 18% of gross domestic product (GDP), the health sector is one of the largest components of the U.S. economy [...]

Abstract The Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security (CARES) Act was the largest stimulus package in US history. In this paper, I look into whether public sentiment improved in response [...]

Abstract This paper uses an econometric approach to examine the inflation consequences of the American Rescue Plan Act of 2021. Price equations are estimated and used to forecast future inflation. [...]

Abstract Using high-frequency job advertisement data, this paper evaluates dynamics among COVID-19, labor market, and government policies. We find that COVID-19 has caused a significant decline in labor demand, by [...]

Abstract Public pension funding problems may contribute to a state's poor economic performance. This paper examines that proposition, using state-level data on public pensions developed by the Pew Trust, and [...]

Hoover Institution Press, 2020 The papers in this fine volume, assembled by editors John Cochrane and John Taylor, were written 'to help inform an important review of monetary policy undertaken [...]

Abstract This paper focuses on the impact that the change in direction of economic policy ushered in by the Trump administration has had on the performance of the U.S. economy. [...]

Abstract This paper proposes a new framework that identifies a threshold between the fed funds rate and the 10-year Treasury yield and, when the threshold is breached, the risk of [...]

RESEARCH IMPACT ASSESSMENT is a recent 196-page paper that describes the practice of federal research impact evaluation. The following sections summarize the paper's contents, with references omitted.(1) QUALITATIVE METHODS Peer [...]

Abstract This paper discusses the implications of neuroeconomics with respect to behavioral attitudes toward the interpretation of current economic events. To this end it first brings to the fore two [...]

Abstract This paper argues that the slow U.S. recovery after the 2008-2009 recession was due to sluggish government spending. The analysis uses a structural macroeconometric model. Conditional on government policy, [...]

Abstract There are two major factors constraining the homeownership rate today: limited supply relative to net household formation and restricted credit availability. In this paper, we carefully document each of [...]

By Grace-Marie Arnett, editor. 1999. Ann Arbor, MI: University of Michigan Press. Pp.320. $29.95, paper back, $42.50 hardcover. This is a collection of papers presented at a conference that anticipated [...]

MICROSOFT'S BEHAVIOR TEACHES ECONOMISTS A LOT ABOUT STRATEGIC BEHAVIOR IN A RAPIDLY CHANGING ENVIRONMENT. This paper examines the lessons economists can draw from the Microsoft litigation. The paper explains that [...]

Abstract The paper examines the size and distribution of online income positions (OIPs) from internet platforms in the United States. While researchers have developed traditional internet sector employment estimates (e.g., [...]

Abstract This paper estimates Okun's law, focusing on piecewise non-linearity in the form of structural breaks and threshold dynamics, and obtains regime-dependent as well as threshold-dependent changes in the unemployment [...]

Abstract The answer to the question 'What will future potential growth be?' is as important as it is unknowable. This paper attempts to predict future U.S. potential output growth by [...]

Abstract Introduction Two recent papers have made compelling cases that mismeasurement of prices of high-tech products cannot explain the slow pace of labor productivity growth that has prevailed since the [...]

We examine the impact of COVID-19 on the federal budget outlook. We find substantial but temporary effects on spending and revenues, with more moderate but permanent effects on the long-term projections. We project that the debt-to-GDP ratio, currently 98%, will rise to 190% in 2050 under current law, compared to a CBO pre-COVID projection of 180%. Sharply lower interest rates projected for the next dozen years help moderate future debt accumulation. Under a 'current policy' projection that allows temporary tax provisions--such as those in the Tax Cut and Jobs Act of 2017--to be made permanent, the debt-to-GDP ratio would rise to 222% by 2050 and would continuing rising thereafter. The long-term projections are sensitive to interest rates. We discuss several aspects of these results, including how the current episode compares to past debt changes, the role of historically low interest rates, and the role of recent Federal Reserve Board policies and actions. Because of the macro-stabilization effects of fiscal tightening, and because low interest rates create 'breathing room' for fiscal policy, we do not see the large, short-run debt accumulation resulting from the current pandemic as necessitating any immediate offsetting response. But the long-term projections show that significant fiscal imbalances remain and will eventually require attention. Keywords COVID * Budget outlook * Fiscal policy, 1 Introduction COVID-19 has created significant changes in almost all aspects of the economy. In this paper, we examine the impact on the federal budget outlook, with five main results. [...]

This paper summarizes the impact of COVID-19 (through mid-September 2020) on the U.S. labor market through the lens of measures found in monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics' Employment Situation releases. It describes the pandemic's impact thus far by looking a payroll jobs, the unemployment rate, a broader measure of job disruptions, and disparities by race and sex. The conclusion discusses forces that will drive outcomes in the coming months. The findings are as follows: (1) The COVID-19 shock was very abrupt and deep by historical standards, and headline numbers understate the magnitude of job disruptions. (2) The pace of the jobs recovery has slowed markedly since June. (3) The share of disrupted workers with ties to employers, which began very high, is falling rapidly, dimming prospects for further rapid recovery. (4) Hispanic, African American and women workers' jobs were more disrupted than others'. (5) Prospects for a speedy jobs recovery depend strongly on the path of the pandemic and degree of fiscal stimulus, both aided by official statistics to guide decisions at all levels during this critical time. Keywords COVID-19 * Recession * Labor market * Unemployment * Jobs * Layoffs, 1 Introduction Perhaps only students of pandemics were not surprised by the rapid and massive impact of COVID-19 on the national and global economy. Certainly, few economists have analyzed policy [...]

The coronavirus crisis has created a profound shift in how people interact and economies function. Policy mandates and fears of becoming infected or infecting others have impelled populations to shelter at home, socially distance, and otherwise reduce direct, in-person interactions with others. By enabling people to conduct many regular activities remotely, including working, learning, shopping, and receiving medical services, technology has allowed the continuation of some semblance of a normal lifestyle in this new environment. Within this context, the IT sector has provided the tools and resources required to support these remote activities, as well as to address the pandemic more directly through efforts such as supporting contact tracing and providing high-performance computing resources for COVID-19-related research. This paper discusses in more detail this impact of the pandemic on the technology industry, and its response to this shock, by addressing three elements: accelerated digital transformation, increased importance of technology in the economy and society, and prevalence of inequalities in access to and the use of technology. Keywords COVID-19 * Information technology * Digital transformation * Digital divide * Remote work * Remote learning, 1 Introduction The coronavirus crisis has created a profound shift in how people interact and economies function. Policy mandates and fears of becoming infected or infecting others have impelled populations [...]

This paper analyzes the productivity challenges as well as the production-related technological investments in the U.S. manufacturing sector in order to create a rich framework for productivity-enhancing policy making. It [...]

A large number of recent papers have endeavored to estimate the current level and trend in the equilibrium real interest rate. A common finding in these studies is that the [...]

The global defense sector is faced with uncertainty and volatility in government demand, which is driven by fiscal constraints, as well as shifting defense priorities in various nations. This paper [...]

This paper investigates the sensitivity of various financial markets to surprises in the federal funds rate. We employ the methodology outlined by Kuttner [2001] to reevaluate prior results and expand [...]

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) is one of the most important sources of data for business economists. This paper describes recent and planned new products, improvements to existing products, [...]

This paper provides an ordered probit approach that estimates the probability six months in the future of three distinct scenarios for prices: inflation, deflation, or price stability. The traditional way [...]

This issue emphasizes papers presented at the NABE Annual Meeting in October 2012. The first paper is Gene Huang's Presidential Address, in which he observes that economic modeling and data [...]

The results in this paper, using a structural multicountry macroeconometric model, suggest that there is at most a small gain from fiscal stimulus in the from of increased transfer payments [...]

In the next 10 years, there is likely to be a tight labor market, largely due to the ongoing retirement of baby boomers. This paper focuses on the details of [...]

This paper attempts to identify the possible reasons behind a drop of the quits rate in the period since the Great Recession. (As defined by the U.S. Bureau of Labor [...]

The Japanese economy has been mired in subdued growth and deflation for more than two decades. This paper describes the key economic facts and features of Japan's decades of stagnation. [...]

This paper provides a methodological analysis of credit risk in momflacturing firms by using two different credit scoring approaches. The .first is the traditional discriminant approach jr bankruptcy prediction based [...]

Fundamental economic factors--market demand caul supply conditions--provide the most consistent explanation for trends in commodity prices from 2004 to 2011. This paper presents empirical evidence that the rise and fall [...]

This paper describes the role of trucking in the U.S. economy; the major changes that have impacted the industry since the mid-1950s; its current and future position vs. other freight [...]

This paper compares the employment growth of states that enacted corporate income tax rate cuts in the past 23 years with those making no changes. Overall employment comparisons from 1990 [...]

This paper assesses the relative effectiveness of central bank independence vs. policy rules Pr the policy instruments in bringing about good economic performance. It examines historical changes in (1) macroeconomic [...]

The actual degree of independence of the Federal Reserve has varied over the years. This paper traces its history and finds that the Federal Reserve has been most successful in [...]

The purpose of this paper is to assess and analyze the size and characteristics of the engineering consultancy market in select Western nations and worldwide. A secondary goal is two-fold: [...]

This paper provides a one-month-ahead, macroeconomic, Bayesian Vector Autoregressive (BV AR) forecasting approach that offers several advantages over conventional short-term forecasting procedures. In particular, it produces more accurate forecasts than [...]

This paper uses national data on individual physicians and two control groups to provide evidence on the extent to which each of five medical malpractice reforms impacts the decision to [...]

In this paper, ire study the time-varying total risk of value and growth clocks. The objective is 10 investigate the contention that the market factor's ability to explain the value [...]

This paper examines the importance of factors that influence a state's decision to adopt an above-federal minimum wage level. Our results indicate that state political leanings are the primary factor [...]

Small businesses account for half of private GDP, half of the private workforce, and most new jobs. This paper documents that small businesses have fared unusually poorly in the current [...]

The United States is capable of becoming an exporting juggernaut if if follows the right policies. This paper discusses what goals the United States should pursue and how it should [...]

This paper discusses six major changes and challenges that have emerged since World War II that will shape the global economy for the indefinite future. These are the changing economic [...]

The Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act of 2010 (PPACA) has a number of provisions that aimed at slowing the rate of growth of health care spending. This paper examines [...]

This paper examines regional competitiveness as it relates to regional labor-management relations. A survey of recent literature provides perspective and secondary evidence regarding labor-management relations, workplace practices, and workforce quality. [...]