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Recruitment patterns of Baltic Sea sprat (Sprattus sprattus) were correlated to time series of (i) month- and depth-specific temperature conditions and (ii) larval drift patterns inferred from long-term Lagrangian particle simulations. From the latter, we derived an index that likely reflected the variable degree of annual larval transport from the central, deep spawning basins to the shallow coastal areas of the Baltic Sea. The drift index was significantly (P < 0.001) correlated to sprat recruitment success and explained, together with sprat spawning stock biomass, 82% of the overall variability between 1979 and 2003. Years of strong larval displacement towards southern and eastern Baltic coasts corresponded to relative recruitment failure, while years of retention within the deep basins were associated with relative recruitment success. The strongest correlation between temperature and recruitment occurred during August in surface waters, explaining 73% of the overall variability. Together, the two approaches advocate that new year classes of Baltic sprat are predominantly composed of individuals born late in the season and are determined in strength mainly by processes acting during the late larval and early juvenile stages. However, prior to be included in recruitment predictions, the biological mechanisms underlying these strong correlations may need to be better resolved. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A coupled hydrodynamic--trophodynamic individual-based model of drift and feeding was utilized to analyze the intra- and inter-annual variability in growth and survival of cod (Gadus morhua) larvae in the central Baltic Sea. Highly temporally and spatially resolved simulated flow fields were used to investigate the potential drift of larval cod from the centre of spawning effort in the Bornholm Basin towards their nursery areas through temporally resolved three-dimensional idealized prey fields. Stomach content analyses of larval cod from the Bornholm Basin revealed calanoid copepod nauplii and early copepodite stages to be the preferred prey organisms. The results of the model runs indicate that larval cod changed from a nonlimited to a food-limited stage because of the strong decrease in abundance of the calanoid copepod Pseudocalanus elongatus during the last two decades. The modeling study revealed retention and dispersal from the main spawning ground to be a key process influencing larval survival. When P. elongatus was available in the prey fields, high cod larval survival rates occurred in spring and early summer. In contrast, when P. elongatus was not available, hatched larvae had only high survival probabilities later in the year or if they were transported into shallower coastal regions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]