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Belugas from the James Bay population (JAM) and Belcher Islands-Eastern Hudson Bay (BEL-EHB) stock are harvested by hunters from all Nunavik communities and the Nunavut community of Sanikiluaq. In 2020-2021, a total of 366 belugas were reported harvested by Nunavik hunters, including 41 animals harvested in the Long Island area. From those, an estimated 139 BEL-EHB animals were harvested. Another 19 BEL-EHB animals were harvested in Sanikiluaq. A population model fitted to a time series of 8 aerial survey estimates using Bayesian methods and taking into account removals by harvesters provided a 2021 abundance estimate of 16,700 belugas in James Bay and a range of 2,900-3,200 belugas in eastern Hudson Bay, depending on model assumptions. The James Bay population has levelled off since the last assessment, whereas the BEL-EHB stock is currently declining at a rate of 2.5% per year. A harvest of 190 belugas per year in James Bay, would result in a 50% probability of decline in the JAM population after 5 years. The Potential Biological Removal (PBR) for this population is 296 belugas. If a Precautionary Approach framework was used to manage beluga in James Bay, a range of 170-173 belugas could be harvested annually. For the BEL-EHB stock, two model runs were completed and harvests were evaluated against two benchmarks or thresholds over time frames of 5 and 10 years. Depending on model assumptions, benchmarks and timeframes, harvests should not exceed levels of 0-70 BEL-EHB belugas annually for the stock to remain above the benchmark abundance estimate. The PBR for this stock is 5 animals. Over a 50-year time period, if the annual harvest of beluga from the BEL-EHB stocks stays within 20-25 animals annually, then there is a high probability of staying above the precautionary reference level. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This document presents the data and methods used to assess the stock status of the northern contingent of Atlantic mackerel (Scomber scombrus) in the Northwest Atlantic. The presented and reviewed stock status indicators (February 20-22, 2023) were estimated with an agestructured stock assessment model that was fitted to landings data, landings-at-age and an egg survey index. The estimated 2022 spawning stock biomass (SSB) was at 42% of the Limit Reference Point, defined as 40% of SSB40%, placing the stock in the Critical zone of the Precautionary Approach Framework. The stock has been in or near the Critical zone since 2011. Recent average recruitment (2012-2022) has been low relative to the previous period (1969-2011) and the age structure of the stock remained truncated. Short-term projections indicated that the probability of the SSB leaving the Critical zone by 2025 varied around 37.5% for a total allowable catch (TAC) of 0 t and around 16% for a TAC of 8,000 t, given continued U.S. fishing and recreational fishing in Canada. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The status of the Northern Shrimp (Pandalus borealis) and Striped Shrimp (P. montagui) resources in the Eastern Assessment Zone (EAZ) and the Western Assessment Zone (WAZ) were assessed based on the results of fishery-independent surveys jointly conducted by Fisheries and Oceans Canada (DFO) and the Northern Shrimp Research Foundation (NSRF) and commercial catch information. Data for the EAZ assessment spanned the years 2006-2016. Results from individual survey areas within the EAZ are provided. Northern Shrimp in the EAZ were assessed to be within the Healthy Zone of the Precautionary Approach Framework with the fishable biomass in the last two years (2015 and 2016) being higher than the long term mean for the area. The potential exploitation rate for 2016/17, based on the TAC of 9,488 t, is approximately 14.5%. Striped Shrimp biomass in the EAZ has fluctuated considerably over the past six surveys, making interpretation of the time series challenging as no clear trend can be inferred. These fluctuations moved Striped Shrimp in the EAZ from a middle point of the Cautious Zone in 2015/16 into the Healthy Zone in 2016/17. Taking into consideration the large interannual biomass fluctuations, caution is advised when setting the TAC for the 2016/17 fishing season. The latest survey (2016) was the third consecutive survey since the time series restarted in the WAZ due to changes in the survey vessel, gear and timing, and a lack of standardization with the prior surveys. The potential exploitation rate indices are 15.9% and 19.3% for Northern Shrimp and Striped Shrimp, respectively, in the WAZ in 2016. These rates are above the target exploitation rate of 15%. While a statistically significant declining trend has not been detected, continuous declines over the last 3 years in the mean biomass for Striped Shrimp in the WAZ are cause for caution when setting the TAC. Precaution should be taken with the WAZ stocks until there is an adequate time series (i.e., at least 5 years of surveys) to develop reference points for the WAZ. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper identifes reference points for Dungeness Crab in Crab Management Areas I and J in British Columbia. We estimated an Upper Stock Reference (USR = 0.456 female standardized CPUE) and a Limit Reference Point (LRP = 0.228 female standardized CPUE), as described in A Fishery Decision-Making Framework Incorporating the Precautionary Approach (DFO 2009) also known as DFO's Precautionary Approach (PA) policy. These reference points will inform the assessment of stock status of Dungeness Crab in Crab Management Areas (CMAs) I and J. Candidate reference points were estimated using three methodologies: a data-driven empirical method, a model-based method which estimates the stock-recruitment relationship, and a simulation model-based method. We recommend applying the empirically-based methodology for determining reference points for the Dungeness Crab in CMAs I and J as they are more interpretable than the simulation model-based reference points, and are more estimable than the stock-recruitment reference points. Subsequent research can use this framework to develop reference points for Dungeness Crab in other CMAs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The status of Newfoundland and Labrador (NL) Atlantic Salmon populations are assessed relative to two reference points, defined on the basis of egg depositions, which separate three stock status zones (critical, cautious and healthy) as per the Fishery Decision-Making Framework Incorporating the Precautionary Approach. These reference points, the Limit Reference Point (LRP) and Upper Stock Reference (USR) point are set at 100% and 150% of the previously defined river-specific conservation egg deposition rate, respectively. In 2018, the status of Atlantic Salmon stocks within the NL Region (Salmon Fishing Areas 1-14B) was assessed using data collected from twenty-two rivers using a combination of salmon counting facilities (fishways and counting fences) and in-river snorkel surveys. Atlantic Salmon smolts migrating to sea were counted on five rivers in Newfoundland. The status of each monitored river is described by the designated stock status zone, % LRP achieved, and both short and long term trends in total adult salmon returns, smolt production and marine survival rates. Estimates of retained salmon in the 2018 recreational fishery were down by 70% and 58% compared to the previous generation averages in Newfoundland and Labrador, respectively. Labrador Food Social and Ceremonial (FSC) and subsistence fisheries harvests were estimated at 12,843 salmon in 2018 (8,762 small, 4,081 large), 7% less than the previous generation average. Of the twenty-two rivers monitored in 2018, one river was not included in the assessment due to an incomplete salmon count. Of the twenty-one other monitored rivers, sixteen had information on total returns over the previous generation (short term comparisons) and fifteen had information over the previous three generations (long term comparisons). Compared to the previous generation, total returns in 2018 were higher on three of four monitored rivers in Labrador and lower on five of twelve monitored rivers in Newfoundland. Compared to the previous three generations, total returns in 2018 were lower on one of four monitored rivers in Labrador and on five of eleven monitored rivers in Newfoundland. Conservation egg requirements were below the river-specific LRP (in the critical zone) on ten assessed rivers, between the LRP and USR on three assessed rivers, and above the river-specific USR on eight assessed rivers in the NL Region. Marine smolt survival is considered to be a major factor limiting the abundance of Atlantic Salmon within the NL Region. Smolt to adult survival of the 2018 smolt class ranged from <1% for Conne River to 9.3% for Western Arm Brook. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents an assessment modeling framework that integrates all available fishery monitoring and survey data into a Spatially Implicit Statistical Catch-At-Length (SISCAL) operating model for Northwest Atlantic Fishery Organization (NAFO) Subareas 0+1 (offshore) Greenland Halibut (GH-0+1). The model is subsequently used to provide both an assessment of stock status and productivity as well as a closed loop simulation framework for evaluating GH-0+1 feedback harvest strategies. The SISCAL model fit reasonably well to GH-0+1 data, as determined by standard goodness of fit metrics, although some sensitivities and data issues were noted. The retrospective behaviour of the model was also within reason. Simulationevaluation self-tests also showed that the model was unlikely to be biased over a large number of simulated data sets. After model testing, SISCAL was used to condition a closed-loop simulation framework for testing GH-0+1 management procedures against performance metrics based on NAFO precautionary approach fishery management policy. As an illustrative example, we defined an adaptive model/index-based management procedure that set total allowable catches on a biennial basis, using decision rule parameters that were updated via simulated SISCAL stock assessments every 6 years. Simulated SISCAL stock assessments were fit to historical and simulated catch and biological data from six commercial fleets, differing by nation and gear type, and stock indices and length compositions from three fishery independent surveys. The three surveys included two existing offshore (NAFO Divisions 0A1CD) and inshore (NAFO Divisions 1A to F) research vessel surveys, as well as an additional proposed survey that will begin in 2022 and was assumed to encounter small fish in inshore waters of Divisions 0A and 0B. For comparison, a non-adaptive index-based method was also tested, where decision rule parameters are based off the initial SISCAL model for the entire simulation. The adaptive procedure performed well, keeping biomass above the limit reference point of = 0.3BMSY in all simulations, and avoiding the limit fishing mortality rate Flim = FMSY with high probability. In contrast, the non-adaptive procedure ended up slightly overfishing the GH-0+1 stock, with biomass appearing to continue declining past the end of the simulation. Moreover, the non-adaptive procedure had a roughly neutral probability of exceeding Flim, making it unacceptable under NAFO policy. We close with recommendations for future work to expand this framework to a full management strategy evaluation, enabling the development of a full harvest strategy for the GH-0+1 fishery consistent with fishery management policy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Fisheries and Oceans Canada (DFO) is developing a precautionary approach (PA) framework for the management of Atlantic Salmon fisheries for DFO Gulf Region rivers. DFO (2018) previously defined river-specific Limit Reference Points (LRPs) for Atlantic Salmon rivers in DFO Gulf Region. This document addresses the definition of the Upper Stock Reference (USR), the Target Reference (TR), and the maximum Removal Rate (RR) reference points in the healthy zone. The USR is defined as 80% of recruitment at maximum sustainable yield and the TR is recruitment at maximum sustainable yield. The maximum removal rate is the exploitation rate that results in maximum sustainable yield. Reconstructed time series of anadromous Atlantic Salmon returns and spawners from two rivers of DFO Gulf Region augmented by data from twelve rivers of the province of Quebec that are proximate to the rivers of the Gulf Region are analyzed. An approach using ratios is proposed to define the USR and TR values based on the defined LRP values. The ratio quantifies the spread between LRP and USR values derived from adult to adult data which is then applied to the LRP which is defined using only the freshwater phase of the salmon life cycle. The mean ratio of USR to LRP for the twelve rivers analyzed is 3.8 and the ratio of TR to LRP is 4.7. The resulting boundary of the cautious / healthy zones is approximately four times higher than the boundary of the critical and cautious zones. The maximum removal rate is taken directly from the adult to adult stock and recruitment analyses and equals 0.6. The LRP, USR, and TR are defined for each river of DFO Gulf Region known or assumed to have an anadromous salmon run. The reference points are expressed in units of eggs contributed by all anadromous sea age and size groups. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Fisheries and Oceans Canada (DFO) is developing a precautionary approach (PA) framework for the management of the Atlantic Salmon recreational fisheries for DFO Gulf Region rivers. A DFO Fisheries Management-led working group (DFO-WG) convened over the previous year to discuss and develop candidate harvest decision rules (HDRs) for the Atlantic Salmon recreational fishery using the Miramichi River as a case study. The candidate HDRs for the recreational fishery are evaluated for compliance to the PA policy and supporting science advice. The candidate HDRs specify management measures for different levels of abundance prior to recreational fisheries rather than being specific about exploitation rates. There is insufficient information to determine the extent to which the described management measures will change the exploitation rates and losses due to fishing. Using historical exploitation rates and assumed catch and release mortality rates from the Miramichi River, the management measures in the candidate HDRs are translated into the proportion of the total eggs lost from recreational fishing. The losses for similar management measures are higher in the Northwest Miramichi compared to the Southwest Miramichi because of differing biological characteristics and seasonal catch profiles between the two rivers. Several elements of the candidate HDRs, such as adjusting losses for three status zones and maximum losses being less than the removal rate reference, comply with the PA policy. Other elements of the candidate HDRs may not comply with the PA policy, subject to interpretation. One key element is the interpretation of the PA statements that removals be kept to the lowest level possible and no tolerance for preventable decline when the stock is in the critical zone. Both candidate rules would allow a directed catch and release recreational fishery when the abundance is in the critical zone; directed fisheries would only be closed if the abundance before fishing was < 15% or < 25% of the Limit Reference Point (LRP), dependent on the rule. The losses from a catch and release fishery in the critical zone would be approx. 1% of the eggs prior to the fishery but could be as high as 4 to 7% if the season-adjusted catch and release mortality rate was in the range of 16 to 25% as indicated from a wider meta-analysis of studies and mean water temperatures in the Miramichi, rather than 3% mortality rate that has been used to date. The implementation of the candidate HDRs requires a forecast of expected abundance prior to the fishery. The performance of the candidate HDRs and compliance to the PA policy will need to be reevaluated to take account of the uncertainties and biases of the forecast model and the decision making process. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Atlantic Herring (Clupea harengus) in Northwest Atlantic Fisheries Organization (NAFO) Division 4T, referred to as the southern Gulf of St. Lawrence (sGSL), consists of two spawning components, spring spawners and fall spawners. This document presents the most recent information on trends in abundance, distribution, and harvest for the spring and fall spawning Herring components in NAFO Division 4T. This includes catch-at-age and catch-per-unit-effort (CPUE) indices, fisheries-independent acoustic indices, experimental gillnet survey indices, mesh selectivity, fishery-dependent acoustic indices and catches in the multi-species bottom trawl survey of the sGSL. The data and indices are reported for the sGSL for the spring spawners, and regionally-disaggregated (North, Middle, and South regions) for the fall spawners where applicable. Spring spawners were assessed using a statistical catch at age (SCA) model that allowed for time-varying catchability to the gillnet fishery and time-varying natural mortality. The model estimated that spawning stock biomass (SSB) has been in the critical zone of the Precautionary Approach framework since 2002. The SSB median estimate in April 1 2022 is estimated to be 28,835 tons (t); 62% of the limit reference point (LRP = 46,340 t). Under current low recruitment and high natural mortality conditions, this stock is not expected to recover in the short or the long term. Reducing fishing mortality will have marginal effects on the projected SSB trends. By 2027, the probability of exceeding the LRP was not more than 20% at all catch levels, with SSB values ranging between 32,500 and 35,400 t. Fall spawners were assessed as regionally-disaggregated populations using a SCA model that allowed for time-varying catchability to the gillnet fishery and time-varying natural mortality. Estimated SSB has been declining in all three regions in recent years and is currently in the Cautious Zone of the Precautionary Approach framework. At the target catch level in 2021 (~12,000 t), the probabilities of a 5% increase in SSB by 2024 are all under 40%. Long-term projections show a continuous decline of SSB, however the probability of moving into the Critical Zone (under the LRP) by 2027 was 0% at all catch levels. As a consequence of low productivity and high natural mortality, exploitation of this stock should assert caution until high recruitment is observed for consecutive years. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The status of the northern contingent of Atlantic mackerel (Scomber scombrus) in the Northwest Atlantic is assessed every two years using an age-structured stock assessment model. This document presents the background information, data, and methods used to calculate the main stock status indicators for mackerel which form the basis of advice given to the Fisheries and Aquaculture Management Branch of Fisheries and Oceans Canada (DFO) in the setting of Total Allowable Catch (TAC). The present stock assessment took place on the 25-26 of February and March 3rd of 2021 and provides advice for the 2021-2022 fishing seasons. The main results of this assessment indicated that in 2020, the spawning stock biomass (SSB) of mackerel was estimated to be at an all-time low and in the Critical Zone, as per DFO's Precautionary Approach (PA), since 2011. Recruitment of age 1 fish was estimated to be near record lows in recent years and the age structure of the stock was severely truncated. The fishing mortality rate (F) was also above the reference point. Short-term projections indicated that the probability of the SSB leaving the Critical Zone by 2023 varied from 29%-37% (TAC = 10 000 t) to 51%-58% (TAC = 0 t) depending on the assumptions of future recruitment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Estuary and Gulf of St. Lawrence northern shrimp (Pandalus borealis) stock status is determined every year by examining many indicators from the commercial fishery and the research survey. This document presents the data and methods that were used to produce the commercial fishery statistics from 1982 to 2021 and the indicators from the survey from 1990 to 2021. In addition, the document presents some ecosystem characteristics observed in the estuary and the northern Gulf of St. Lawrence. These can have an impact on the dynamics of northern shrimp stocks through, among other things, effects on spatial distribution, growth, reproduction and trophic relationships. The elements of the precautionary approach are also presented in this document. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Striped Bass (Morone saxatilis) population of the southern Gulf of St. Lawrence, the most northern spawning population of the species distribution in eastern North America, is widely distributed in estuaries and coastal waters of the southern Gulf of St. Lawrence from the north shore of the Gaspe Peninsula in Quebec to the northern tip of Cape Breton Island, Nova Scotia. For purposes of assessment and development of fisheries reference points, the southern Gulf Striped Bass population distribution comprises the Gulf of St. Lawrence region. Following on the sustained rebuilding of the spawner abundances from the lows of the late 1990s to the current high abundances that exceed 300 thousand spawners, DFO Gulf Ecosystems and Fisheries Management requested the development of fisheries based reference points that conform to the Precautionary Approach (PA) to guide further management decisions on the development of the Striped Bass fisheries. The extensive information on the abundance and biological characteristics of the Striped Bass population of the southern Gulf of St. Lawrence is presented. An age structured population model is used to estimate stock and recruitment parameters and associated mortality rates at age based on assessed abundances of spawners for the years 1996 to 2019. Equilibrium modelling is used to define candidate Limit Reference Point (LRP), Upper Stock Reference (USR), and removal rate references that would conform to the Precautionary Approach. Despite model uncertainties, a LRP value of just over 330 thousand spawners is consistent with one of the population model results as well as with the history of the management decisions for re-opening of fisheries access since 2013. The USR value of 720 thousand spawners would represent a healthy condition for this population, based on the assessed spawner abundances to 2019 and on the potential productive capacity of this population. A number of knowledge gaps and uncertainties remain. The most important assessment and management gap is the incomplete to non-existent catch statistics for any of the Striped Bass fisheries in the southern Gulf of St. Lawrence, including Indigenous Food Social and Ceremonial fisheries and the larger recreational fisheries. In the absence of these catch and harvest data, it is not possible to provide fisheries management advice in terms of total allowable catches nor can the status of the population relative to removal rates be assessed. Striped Bass is a predator of other valued anadromous fisheries species in the southern Gulf of St. Lawrence. The reference points presented are derived based on optimizing value functions specific to Striped Bass. No multi-species reference points or management options are discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Canada's Fisheries Act was revised on June 21, 2019, resulting in new Considerations and Fish Stocks provisions (FSP) that relate to the management of fisheries. The FSP (Section 6) contains new terminology: 1) a requirement to implement measures to maintain major fish stocks "at or above the level necessary to promote the sustainability of the stock" (s 6.1(1)); and 2) if those management measures are unfeasible due to cultural or socio-economic impacts, to maintain stocks above the limit reference point or LRP (s 6.1(2)), which is a biological threshold to serious harm. Definitions of sustainability recognize both time and the need for equitable access to benefits across generations of resource users. Most jurisdictions recognize multiple axes of sustainability including ecological, socio-economic and institutional axes, but prioritize them differently. Consideration of all axes is necessary to operationalize fisheries management to support sustainable use, and science alone cannot advise on all of them. A pragmatic definition of sustainability in fisheries is that it is the process that conveys the ability to maintain a specified level of practical and effective use of a fisheries resource over the long term, where practical and effective reflects value-based measureable objectives related to biological, socio-economic and cultural outcomes. In the same vein, a level necessary to promote sustainability of the stock can be defined as "a threshold representing a specified level of practical and effective resource use over the long term." In the absence of clearly-defined value-based objectives for resource use or tolerance for risk to the stock, the threshold cannot be defined more specifically. Thresholds and other levels fulfilling s 6.1(1) or s 6.1(2) differ with respect to trade-offs among biological, socio-economic, and/or cultural objectives but both sections imply the stock be maintained above the LRP. Limits, other thresholds and target reference points play important roles in constraining which stock states are considered sustainable internationally. Review of Canada's PA Policy suggests that fisheries sustainability could be evaluated, in part, by considering whether stock status exceeds the LRP and whether fishing mortality is less than the removal reference rate. The question of sustainability can also be assessed by evaluating whether management measures are expected to perform acceptably with respect to stated limits and targets over specified time frames. The multiple axes of sustainability imply there is a role for multiple sectors in defining and promoting stock and fisheries sustainability. The Science Sector sets LRPs, evaluates stock status against reference points, and may contribute by evaluating other elements of the ecological axis of sustainability such as age or size composition of the stock, habitat, trophic level and other ecosystem considerations in relation to objectives. Setting targets, other thresholds, time frames and determining acceptable risks are value-based choices and cannot be established via scientific means alone. All Sectors may benefit from Departmental guidance as to how s 6.1(1) and s 6.1(2) differ in implementation, particularly with respect to the use of PA Policy reference points in management objectives, and implications for management measures including harvest control rules. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Canada's Fisheries Act was revised in 2019 to include new Fish Stocks provisions. Updated science guidelines to support the Sustainable Fisheries Framework policies, in particular the Fishery Decision-Making Framework Incorporating the Precautionary Approach (PA Policy), and legal and regulatory requirements are also under development. To inform the development of science guidelines, we reviewed the technical specifications of reference points and harvest control rules for a subset of key harvested stocks, focusing primarily on those domestically managed and subject to the PA Policy. The adoption of default guidance values of the limit reference point (LRP) and upper stock reference (USR) provided in the PA Policy (0.4 and 0.8 BMSY) is not required, but these values appear to have been widely embraced (43% and 65% of cases, respectively). The USR by definition serves a number of functions, including an operational control point (trigger for management action) to control the risk of approaching the LRP, Healthy-Cautious zone boundary, and target. Science guidelines can provide support for identifying alternative USRs by noting proxies for BMSY (enabling use of proxies for 0.8 BMSY) and by addressing various functions attributed to the USR separately. Removal References (RRs), like USRs, may serve multiple purposes across the stocks in this review. We found that RR values are consistent with indicating whether harvests are at "approved [target] levels" in a wide range of stocks, and sometimes with limits to be either avoided or with which to characterize acceptable stock status in terms of overfishing on the fishing mortality (F)-axis of the PA Policy. Science guidelines could provide support for identifying RRs by highlighting FMSY proxies and characterization of stock states on the F-axis. Four broad types of harvest control rules (HCRs) appear to be implemented in Canada: feedback status-based rules, mixed feedback/feed-forward risk-based rules, "constant" rules with no operational control points and feedforward-only objective-based "rules." The provisional HCR suggested in the PA Policy guidance is not often used although three-part rules with control points at the LRP and USR are common (38% of HCRs). Rules varied widely, although the vast majority are targeted toward informing quantitative output controls (catch limits). To support the new provisions, the development of updated science guidelines should aim to support easier identification of PA components and more consistent use of terminology for key aspects of the PA Policy, including reference points, operational control points for HCRs, and measurable objectives. The HCR types and other measures will vary widely for fisheries that represent a spectrum of data and assessment model availability for key harvested stocks. As science support may be requested for developing and evaluating a wide range of HCRs, science guidelines will need to address both prospective and retrospective evaluation for an array of possible rules that reflect input and output controls and interact with other management measures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Rebuilding plans are required by law under the new Fish Stocks provisions of the revised Fisheries Act for major fish stocks prescribed under regulations that have declined to, or below, their limit reference point. The provisions state that the biology of the fish and environmental conditions facing the stock will be taken into consideration in the design of rebuilding strategies. Rebuilding strategies inform the development of rebuilding plans and should be regarded as integral to overall management (harvest) strategies. Science activities focus on the development and evaluation of management strategies in response to stated objectives, including rebuilding. Viewing a rebuilding strategy as separate from the overall management strategy can lead to the deferral of actions intended to prevent stock decline. Failure to plan rebuilding measures before they are needed can create hard-to-resolve conflicts with measures intended to provide opportunities for resource use. Increased likelihood that rebuilding is achieved depends on planning the transition from rebuilding to target outcomes within a management strategy. Like many other jurisdictions, Canada advocates management by reference points. Our review of international fisheries agreements highlights key elements that produced Canadian fisheries policy related to the Precautionary Approach. Interpretation of policy must distinguish between objectives that embed biological reference points related to abundance or fishing mortality, and the management measures intended to provide acceptable stock and fishery outcomes. As management by reference points can be challenging when there is data- or model-poverty, rebuilding strategies for such stocks should prioritize increasing information needed to adapt the rebuilding plan while preserving policy intent to avoid or correct undesirable stock states. We review obligations for recovery strategies under the Species at Risk Act and an ecocertification standard to evaluate where common information demands exist that could lead to efficiencies in providing advice. Existing Canadian rebuilding plans are reviewed to identify information needed to support rebuilding considerations in light of proposed regulations to support the Fish Stocks provisions. We discuss components of rebuilding strategies needed to meet proposed regulations. These include determining when rebuilding is needed, identifying the rebuilt state, and specifying a time period over which to implement a rebuilding plan. One science role is consistent communication of the plausible range of stock scenarios during the lifespan of the plan to inform expectations of decision-makers and resource users. Plan success can be enhanced by allowing for adaptation during the rebuilding period as new data, updated analyses, and revised objectives are considered. We suggest principles for developing national science guidelines for rebuilding fish stocks. Guidelines are intended to clarify expectations for, and to encourage, consistent science practices. We advocate a structured decision-making approach to developing feasible rebuilding strategies, identifying possible scenarios and eliciting objectives from resource users and decision-makers. The process can be used for data-poor contexts and maps directly into quantitative approaches such as management strategy evaluation. Finally, we provide a recommended list of elements for rebuilding strategies that should be reflected in science guidelines. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Atlantic Herring in the southern Gulf of St. Lawrence (sGSL) consists of two spawning components: spring spawners and fall spawners. This document presents the most recent information on trends in abundance, distribution, and harvest for the spring and fall spawning Herring components in NAFO Division 4T. This includes catch-at-age and catch-per-unit-effort (CPUE) indices, fisheries-independent acoustic indices, experimental gillnet survey indices, mesh selectivity, and catches in the multi-species bottom trawl survey of the sGSL. The data and indices are reported for the whole-area for the spring spawners, and regionallydisaggregated (North, Middle, and South regions) for the fall spawners where applicable. Spring spawners were assessed using a statistical catch at age (SCA) model that allowed for time-varying catchability to the gillnet fishery and time-varying natural mortality. The model estimated that spawning stock biomass (SSB) has been in the critical zone of the Precautionary Approach framework since 2002. The SSB median estimate in April 1 2020 is estimated to be approximately 26,000 t; 55 % of the limit reference point (LRP = 47,250 t). Under current low recruitment and high natural mortality conditions, this stock is not expected to recover in the short or the long term. Reducing fishing mortality only slightly reduces the probabilities of SSB decline in projections. By 2029, the probability of exceeding the LRP was 0 % at all catch levels, with SSB values ranging between 160 and 1,198 t. Fall spawners were assessed as regionally-disaggregated populations using a SCA model that allowed for time-varying catchability to the gillnet fishery and time-varying natural mortality. Estimated SSB has been declining in all three regions in recent years and is currently in the Cautious Zone of the Precautionary Approach framework. At the target catch level in 2019 (16,000 t), the probabilities of a 5 % increase in SSB by 2022 are 29 %. Long-term projections show a continuous decline, with SSB in the Critical Zone by 2025. As a consequence of low productivity and high natural mortality, exploitation of this stock should assert caution until high recruitment is observed for consecutive years. The catch level offering the greatest probabilities of increasing SSB in the short and long term was 2,000 t. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The status of the Snow Crab (Chionoecetes opilio) resource surrounding Newfoundland and Labrador (NL) in Northwest Atlantic Fisheries Organization (NAFO) Divisions (Divs.) 2HJ3KLNOP4R is assessed using a variety of metrics. Data from multi-species bottom trawl surveys conducted during fall in Divs. 2HJ3KLNO and spring in Divs. 3LNO and Subdiv. 3Ps are examined to provide information on trends in biomass, recruitment, production, and mortality over the time series. Multi-species trawl survey indices are compared with other relevant indices toward inferring changes in resource status for 2019 and beyond. These other indices are derived utilizing data from harvester logbooks, at-sea observers, the dockside monitoring program (DMP), and inshore and offshore trap surveys, as well as oceanographic surveys. Snow Crab landings remained near 50,000 t from 2007 to 2015 but have since steadily declined to a two-decade low of 27,700 t in 2018. Overall effort remained at approximately 3.5 to 4.5 million trap hauls per year over that time. Overall catch per unit effort (CPUE) was at a time-series low in 2018. Despite modest increases in the past two years, the trawl survey exploitable biomass index has remained at its lowest level for the past four years. Meanwhile, the trap survey index has declined by nearly 60% in the last two years to a time-series low. Despite modest increases in some divisions in the past two years, overall recruitment into the exploitable biomass will remain low in most divisions in 2019. Total mortality in exploitable Snow Crab is estimated to be near time-series' averages in most divisions. It has declined from very high levels in most divisions during the past two years, with the exception of Division (Div.) 3K, where it remains at a time-series high. Exploitation rate indices were at or near time-series highs in most divisions in 2017. In 2018, exploitation rates subsequently increased to a new high in Div. 3L Inshore, remained high in Divs. 2HJ3KLNO, and declined to be near or below long-term average levels in Divs. 3Ps and 4R3Pn. Elements of the Precautionary Approach Framework presented in this assessment are tentative. Limit Reference Points defining the critical zone have been established by a peer-reviewed Science process, but Upper Stock Reference lines defining the cautious and healthy zones remain under development. In 2019, most divisions are projected to fall within the cautious zone of the proposed Precautionary Approach Framework. Div. 3L Inshore would be in the critical zone. These projections assume status-quo landings. The thermal habitat index (defined as the areal extent of <2°C bottom water) has returned to near-average conditions in all divisions in recent years. Broad-scale climate indices appear favourable for improved recruitment to occur in most major areas of the stock range over the next few years. Ecosystem conditions in the NL Bioregion are indicative of an overall low productivity at the lower trophic levels (phytoplankton and zooplankton) in recent years with changes in zooplankton community structure potentially impacting the transfer of energy to higher trophic levels. A sharp decline in male size-at-maturity (i.e., terminal molt size) in most Assessment Divisions (ADs) in recent years will dampen short-term prospects for recruitment into the Snow Crab exploitable biomass. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The 2019 assessment of the southern Gulf of St. Lawrence (sGSL) snow crab, Chionoecetes opilio, stock (Areas 12, 19, 12E and 12F) is presented. Snow crab in the sGSL is considered as a single stock unit for assessment purposes. The 2019 assessment was conducted as per the recommendations of the Snow Crab Assessment Methods Framework Science Review held in November 2011. The catchability for commercial-sized adult male snow crab in the snow crab bottom trawl survey is assumed to be constant over the time series and equal to one. The snow crab indices from the 2019 trawl survey are likely positively biased, resulting from a change in vessel and trawl fishing procedures in 2019. The trawl may have been fishing and catching snow crab over a larger area than estimated using the standardization procedures in this assessment. For the purpose of the assessment, the estimates of the commercial biomass and all abundances of males and females presented here have not been corrected according to this bias. The exploitation rate of the 2019 fishery in the sGSL was 39.3 %. The 2019 post-fishery survey biomass of commercial-sized adult male crabs was estimated at 79,066 t (95 % confidence intervals 69,072 to 90,091 t), which is similar to 2018 (80,746 t). The available biomass for the 2020 fishery, derived from the 2019 survey, is within the healthy zone of the Precautionary Approach (PA) Framework. The residual biomass from the 2019 survey was estimated at 20,291 t, a decrease of 5.3 % compared to the 2018 survey estimate (21,432 t). Seventy-five percent (75 %) of the 2019 survey biomass, available for the 2020 fishery, is composed of new recruitment (58,995 t). The recruitment to the commercial biomass from the 2019 survey is similar to 2018 (59,609 t). Based on the agreed harvest decision rule, the point estimate of the biomass in the 2019 survey of 79,066 t corresponds to an exploitation rate of 40.6 % and a total allowable catch of 32,101 t for the 2020 fishery. At this harvest level, there is zero chance of residual biomass post-fishery in 2020 being in the critical zone. A risk assessment to attainment of PA objectives of potential positive biases in the 2019 commercial biomass estimate is provided. Despite the possible overestimation concerns of the 2019 assessment, the biomass of commercial-sized adult males is considered to be at a high level and in the healthy zone of the PA. There is a broad distribution of snow crab in the sGSL and continued positive signs of sustained recruitment and high female abundances. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Precautionary Approach (PA) is a general philosophy to managing threats of serious or irreversible harm where there is scientific uncertainty. An implementation of this approach, in the form of the PA Framework, serves as a foundation for the establishment of Limit Reference Points (LRPs), below which productivity is sufficiently impaired to cause serious harm to a fishery. Fisheries and Oceans Canada (DFO) has committed to implementing a PA Framework (DFO 2006) in the management of the Northern (Pandalus borealis) and Striped (P. montagui) shrimp fisheries located in Hudson Strait and Ungava Bay (Western Assessment Zone; WAZ). To support these efforts, this document provides directions for establishing of LRPs and suggests the Upper Stock Reference Points (USRs) for these stocks. This document also discusses updated LRPs and suggests USRs for the Northern and Striped Shrimp fisheries in Davis Strait (Eastern Assessment Zone; EAZ). Two approaches to establishing the LRPs are considered herein: 30% and 40% of the geometric mean of female spawning stock biomass (SSB). In the WAZ, based on a 6-year time series, new LRPs based on a 30% scenario were calculated as 3,100 and 9,200 t for Northern Shrimp and Striped Shrimp, respectively. The 40% scenario in the WAZ would result in new LRPs of 4,100 and 12,300 t for Northern Shrimp and Striped Shrimp, respectively. New proposed USRs in the WAZ, based on a 6-year time series and calculated at 80% of the geometric mean of SSB, would be 8,200 and 24,600 t for Northern Shrimp and Striped Shrimp, respectively. Similarly in the EAZ, two scenarios for calculating updated LRPs were also considered (i.e., 30% and 40% of the geometric mean of SSB). Based on a longer, 11-year time series, updated LRPs based on a 30% scenario were calculated as 11,800 t (increase from 6,800 t) and 2,300 t (no change) for Northern Shrimp and Striped Shrimp, respectively. The 40% scenario in the EAZ would result in updated LRPs of 15,800 t (increase from 6,800 t) and 3,100 t (increase from 2,300 t) for Northern Shrimp and Striped Shrimp, respectively. The updated USRs, based on 80% of geometric mean of SSB, in the EAZ are proposed at 31,600 t (increase from 18,200 t) for Northern Shrimp and 6,100 t (no change) for Striped Shrimp. The updated reference points for the EAZ reflect a longer time series (11 years versus 3 years as previously explored) and expanded spatial coverage to reflect current assessment extent. The intent of this document is to serve as a source of supporting information to provide advice to DFO Resource Management, consistent with the Department's PA Framework in support of the sustainable management of these fisheries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]