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Abstract Background Postsurgical recurrence is of great concern for papillary thyroid carcinoma (PTC). We aim to investigate the value of computed tomography (CT)-based radiomics features and conventional clinical factors in predicting the recurrence of PTC. Methods Two-hundred and eighty patients with PTC were retrospectively enrolled and divided into training and validation cohorts at a 6:4 ratio. Recurrence was defined as cytology/pathology-proven disease or morphological evidence of lesions on imaging examinations within 5 years after surgery. Radiomics features were extracted from manually segmented tumor on CT images and were then selected using four different feature selection methods sequentially. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was conducted to identify clinical features associated with recurrence. Radiomics, clinical, and combined models were constructed separately using logistic regression (LR), support vector machine (SVM), k-nearest neighbor (KNN), and neural network (NN), respectively. Receiver operating characteristic analysis was performed to evaluate the model performance in predicting recurrence. A nomogram was established based on all relevant features, with its reliability and reproducibility verified using calibration curves and decision curve analysis (DCA). Results Eighty-nine patients with PTC experienced recurrence. A total of 1218 radiomics features were extracted from each segmentation. Five radiomics and six clinical features were related to recurrence. Among the 4 radiomics models, the LR-based and SVM-based radiomics models outperformed the NN-based radiomics model (P = 0.032 and 0.026, respectively). Among the 4 clinical models, only the difference between the area under the curve (AUC) of the LR-based and NN-based clinical model was statistically significant (P = 0.035). The combined models had higher AUCs than the corresponding radiomics and clinical models based on the same classifier, although most differences were not statistically significant. In the validation cohort, the combined models based on the LR, SVM, KNN, and NN classifiers had AUCs of 0.746, 0.754, 0.669, and 0.711, respectively. However, the AUCs of these combined models had no significant differences (all P > 0.05). Calibration curves and DCA indicated that the nomogram have potential clinical utility. Conclusions The combined model may have potential for better prediction of PTC recurrence than radiomics and clinical models alone. Further testing with larger cohort may help reach statistical significance.

Abstract Background Accurate pretreatment prediction for disease progression of nasopharyngeal carcinoma is key to intensify therapeutic strategies to high-risk individuals. Our aim was to evaluate the value of baseline MRI-based radiomics machine-learning models in predicting the disease progression in nasopharyngeal carcinoma patients who achieved complete response after treatment. Methods In this retrospective study, 171 patients with pathologically confirmed nasopharyngeal carcinoma were included. Using hold-out cross validation scheme (7:3), relevant radiomic features were selected with the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator method based on baseline T2-weighted fat suppression and contrast-enhanced T1-weighted images in the training cohort. After Pearson’s correlation analysis of selected radiomic features, multivariate logistic regression analysis was applied to radiomic features and clinical characteristics selection. Logistic regression analysis and support vector machine classifier were utilized to build the predictive model respectively. The predictive accuracy of the model was evaluated by ROC analysis along with sensitivity, specificity and AUC calculated in the validation cohort. Results A prediction model using logistic regression analysis comprising 4 radiomics features (HGLZE_T2H, HGLZE_T1, LDLGLE_T1, and GLNU_T1) and 5 clinical features (histology, T stage, N stage, smoking history, and age) showed the best performance with an AUC of 0.75 in the training cohort (95% CI: 0.66–0.83) and 0.77 in the validation cohort (95% CI: 0.64–0.90). The nine independent impact factors were entered into the nomogram. The calibration curves for probability of 3-year disease progression showed good agreement. The features of this prediction model showed satisfactory clinical utility with decision curve analysis. Conclusions A radiomics model derived from pretreatment MR showed good performance for predicting disease progression in nasopharyngeal carcinoma and may help to improve clinical decision making.