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The article by Banerjee and colleagues published in this issue of the journal involving a randomized control prevention trial of ursodeoxycholic acid (UDCA) in Barrett esophagus reported a null outcome despite being well designed and executed. Possible reasons for this null outcome are discussed focusing on use of surrogate endpoints in the trial. The trial is especially topical because it comes at a time when there are calls for a Pre-Cancer Genome Atlas (PCGA) for "understanding the earliest molecular and cellular events associated with cancer initiation…" This commentary discusses current concepts in prevention research including branched evolution that leads to therapeutic resistance. Length bias sampling postulates underdiagnosis is due to rapidly progressing disease that is difficult to detect by screening because it progresses to cancer too rapidly and that overdiagnosis is the result of very slowly or nonprogressing disease that is easy to detect by screening because it persists for a lifetime and the patient dies of unrelated causes. Finally, it also explores study designs, including surrogate endpoints in Barrett esophagus trials, and opportunities and pitfalls for a PCGA in the context of high levels of over and underdiagnosis of Barrett esophagus as well as many other cancers and their precursors. Cancer Prev Res; 9(7); 512-7. ©2016 AACRSee related article by Banerjee, et al., p. 528., (©2016 American Association for Cancer Research.)

Mutations detected in cancers are often divided into "drivers" and "passengers." We suggest that this classification is potentially misleading for purposes of early detection and prevention. Specifically, some mutations are frequent in tumors and thus appear to be drivers, but are poor predictors of cancer; other mutations are individually rare and thus appear to be passengers, but may collectively explain a large proportion of risk. The assumptions bundled into the terms "driver" and "passenger" can lead to misunderstandings of neoplastic progression, with unintended consequences including overdiagnosis, overtreatment, and failure to identify the true sources of risk. We argue that samples from healthy, benign, or neoplastic tissues are critical for evaluating the risk of future cancer posed by mutations in a given gene. Cancer Prev Res; 9(5); 335-8. ©2016 AACR., (©2016 American Association for Cancer Research.)

Cancers detected at a late stage are often refractory to treatments and ultimately lethal. Early detection can significantly increase survival probability, but attempts to reduce mortality by early detection have frequently increased overdiagnosis of indolent conditions that do not progress over a lifetime. Study designs that incorporate biomarker trajectories in time and space are needed to distinguish patients who progress to an early cancer from those who follow an indolent course. Esophageal adenocarcinoma is characterized by evolution of punctuated and catastrophic somatic chromosomal alterations and high levels of overall mutations but few recurrently mutated genes aside from TP53. Endoscopic surveillance of Barrett's esophagus for early cancer detection provides an opportunity for assessment of alterations for cancer risk in patients who progress to esophageal adenocarcinoma compared with nonprogressors. We investigated 1,272 longitudinally collected esophageal biopsies in a 248 Barrett's patient case-cohort study with 20,425 person-months of follow-up, including 79 who progressed to early-stage esophageal adenocarcinoma. Cancer progression risk was assessed for total chromosomal alterations, diversity, and chromosomal region-specific alterations measured with single-nucleotide polymorphism arrays in biopsies obtained over esophageal space and time. A model using 29 chromosomal features was developed for cancer risk prediction (area under receiver operator curve, 0.94). The model prediction performance was robust in two independent esophageal adenocarcinoma sets and outperformed TP53 mutation, flow cytometric DNA content, and histopathologic diagnosis of dysplasia. This study offers a strategy to reduce overdiagnosis in Barrett's esophagus and improve early detection of esophageal adenocarcinoma and potentially other cancers characterized by punctuated and catastrophic chromosomal evolution., (©2015 American Association for Cancer Research.)

All cancers are believed to arise by dynamic, stochastic somatic genomic evolution with genome instability, generation of diversity, and selection of genomic alterations that underlie multistage progression to cancer. Advanced esophageal adenocarcinomas have high levels of somatic copy number alterations. Barrett's esophagus is a risk factor for developing esophageal adenocarcinoma, and somatic chromosomal alterations (SCA) are known to occur in Barrett's esophagus. The vast majority (∼95%) of individuals with Barrett's esophagus do not progress to esophageal adenocarcinoma during their lifetimes, but a small subset develop esophageal adenocarcinoma, many of which arise rapidly even in carefully monitored patients without visible endoscopic abnormalities at the index endoscopy. Using a well-designed, longitudinal case-cohort study, we characterized SCA as assessed by single-nucleotide polymorphism arrays over space and time in 79 "progressors" with Barrett's esophagus as they approach the diagnosis of cancer and 169 "nonprogressors" with Barrett's esophagus who did not progress to esophageal adenocarcinoma over more than 20,425 person-months of follow-up. The genomes of nonprogressors typically had small localized deletions involving fragile sites and 9p loss/copy neutral LOH that generate little genetic diversity and remained relatively stable over prolonged follow-up. As progressors approach the diagnosis of cancer, their genomes developed chromosome instability with initial gains and losses, genomic diversity, and selection of SCAs followed by catastrophic genome doublings. Our results support a model of differential disease dynamics in which nonprogressor genomes largely remain stable over prolonged periods, whereas progressor genomes evolve significantly increased SCA and diversity within four years of esophageal adenocarcinoma diagnosis, suggesting a window of opportunity for early detection., (©2013 AACR.)

Neoplastic progression is an evolutionary process driven by the generation of clonal diversity and natural selection on that diversity within a neoplasm. We hypothesized that clonal diversity is associated with risk of progression to cancer. We obtained molecular data from a cohort of 239 participants with Barrett's esophagus, including microsatellite shifts and loss of heterozygosity, DNA content tetraploidy and aneuploidy, methylation, and sequence mutations. Using these data, we tested all major diversity measurement methods, including genetic divergence and entropy-based measures, to determine which measures are correlated with risk of progression to esophageal adenocarcinoma. We also tested whether the use of different sets of loci and alterations to define clones (e.g., selectively advantageous versus evolutionarily neutral) improved the predictive value of the diversity indices. All diversity measures were strong and highly significant predictors of progression (Cox proportional hazards model, P < 0.001). The type of alterations evaluated had little effect on the predictive value of most of the diversity measures. In summary, diversity measures are robust predictors of progression to cancer in this cohort., (©2010 AACR.)

Chromosome copy gain, loss, and loss of heterozygosity (LOH) involving most chromosomes have been reported in many cancers; however, less is known about chromosome instability in premalignant conditions. 17p LOH and DNA content abnormalities have been previously reported to predict progression from Barrett's esophagus (BE) to esophageal adenocarcinoma (EA). Here, we evaluated genome-wide chromosomal instability in multiple stages of BE and EA in whole biopsies. Forty-two patients were selected to represent different stages of progression from BE to EA. Whole BE or EA biopsies were minced, and aliquots were processed for flow cytometry and genotyped with a paired constitutive control for each patient using 33,423 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNP). Copy gains, losses, and LOH increased in frequency and size between early- and late-stage BE (P < 0.001), with SNP abnormalities increasing from <2% to >30% in early and late stages, respectively. A set of statistically significant events was unique to either early or late, or both, stages, including previously reported and novel abnormalities. The total number of SNP alterations was highly correlated with DNA content aneuploidy and was sensitive and specific to identify patients with concurrent EA (empirical receiver operating characteristic area under the curve = 0.91). With the exception of 9p LOH, most copy gains, losses, and LOH detected in early stages of BE were smaller than those detected in later stages, and few chromosomal events were common in all stages of progression. Measures of chromosomal instability can be quantified in whole biopsies using SNP-based genotyping and have potential to be an integrated platform for cancer risk stratification in BE.