1. Automatic detection of abrupt transitions in paleoclimate records
- Author
-
Michael Ghil, Denis-Didier Rousseau, Witold Bagniewski, Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique (UMR 8539) (LMD), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Département des Géosciences - ENS Paris, École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL), Géosciences Montpellier, Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université de Montpellier (UM)-Université des Antilles (UA)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory (LDEO), and Columbia University [New York]
- Subjects
010506 paleontology ,010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences ,Applied Mathematics ,Climate oscillation ,General Physics and Astronomy ,Climate change ,Statistical and Nonlinear Physics ,Forcing (mathematics) ,01 natural sciences ,Ice core ,13. Climate action ,[SDU]Sciences of the Universe [physics] ,Climatology ,Paleoclimatology ,Jump ,Step detection ,Proxy (statistics) ,Mathematical Physics ,Geology ,0105 earth and related environmental sciences - Abstract
International audience; Bifurcations and tipping points (TPs) are an important part of the Earth system’s behavior. These critical points represent thresholds at which small changes in the system’s parameters or in the forcing abruptly switch it from one state or type of behavior to another. Current concern with TPs is largely due to the potential of slow anthropogenic forcing to bring about abrupt, and possibly irreversible, change to the physical climate system and impacted ecosystems. Paleoclimate proxy records have been shown to contain abrupt transitions, or “jumps,” which may represent former instances of such dramatic climate change events. These transitions can provide valuable information for identifying critical TPs in current and future climate evolution. Here, we present a robust methodology for detecting abrupt transitions in proxy records that is applied to ice core and speleothem records of the last climate cycle. This methodology is based on the nonparametric Kolmogorov–Smirnov (KS) test for the equality, or not, of the probability distributions associated with two samples drawn from a time series, before and after any potential jump. To improve the detection of abrupt transitions in proxy records, the KS test is augmented by several other criteria and it is compared with recurrence analysis. The augmented KS test results show substantial skill when compared with more subjective criteria for jump detection. This test can also usefully complement recurrence analysis and improve upon certain aspects of its results
- Full Text
- View/download PDF