1. 后疫情时期的经济复苏与绿色发展:对立还是共赢.
- Author
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郑馨竺, 张雅欣, 李晋, and 王灿
- Subjects
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ECONOMIC recovery , *COVID-19 pandemic , *CARBON emissions , *EMPLOYMENT , *ECONOMIC models - Abstract
The economic recovery packages launched by governments around the world in the post-COVID-19 period have raised concerns that green development could be shelved amid recovery. Although the idea of 'green recoveryJ gained strong support worldwide, questions like whether green recovery is inevitably accompanied by economic sacrifice and what challenges it faces need to be thoroughly pondered before actions being taken. Research for these questions is not only qualitatively but also quantitatively crucial for the formulation of economic recovery policies. Based on the latest information on travel data and epidemic control measures an Adaptive Regional Input-Output Model is applied to the simulation of post-COVID-19 economic recovery processes, assessing the influence of different recovery plans on economy, employment and carbon emissions. The findings show that green recovery plans targeting clean energy and digital economy lead to comparable or even higher economic growth than the traditional ones characterized by fossil energy and heavy industry investment. Nevertheless, the challenge of reemployment faced by the green recovery may slow down the economic recovery process. Compared to the traditional plan, the 4 green recovery scenarios lead to economic growth by 0.3% 〜 14. 8% and job growth by - 4% 〜3%. But it requires trans-sectoral reemployment for nearly 100 million people (about 15% of the initial labor market scale) 96% of whom are middle-and low-skilled workers who are most seriously affected by the pandemic. The barriers to reemployment, like the mismatch between skills and jobs, may increase the time and expense of hiring and training the new workforce. Such barriers thus aggravate structural unemployment and social inequity and bring secondary harm to the vulnerable. This paper points out that economic recovery and green development are not mutually exclusive but can achieve win-win results with preconditions. It is also crucial to bear in mind that solely focusing on the potential mutual benefits of economic growth and job creation, while ignoring the preconditions for benefits realization could lead to misleading decisions. Increasing labor market flexibility and promoting social justice and equity are forward-looking strategies to strengthen the resilience of the economic system and to achieve win-win results for economic recovery and green development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2021
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