1. Predictors of long-term recurrent vascular events after ischemic stroke at young age: the Italian Project on Stroke in Young Adults
- Author
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Pezzini, A., Grassi, M., Lodigiani, C., Patella, R., Gandolfo, C., Zini, A., Delodovici, M. L., Paciaroni, M., Del Sette, M., Toriello, A., Musolino, R., Calabrò, R. S., Bovi, P., Adami, A., Silvestrelli, G., Sessa, M., Cavallini, A., Marcheselli, S., Bonifati, D. M., Checcarelli, N., Tancredi, L., Chiti, A., Del Zotto, E., Spalloni, A., Giossi, A., Volonghi, I., Costa, P., Giacalone, G., Ferrazzi, P., Poli, L., Morotti, A., Rasura, M., Simone, A., M, ., Gamba, M., Cerrato, P., Micieli, G., Melis, M., Massucco, D., De Giuli, V., Iacoviello, L., Padovani, A., Italian Project on Stroke in Young Adults Investigators, and Balestrino, Maurizio
- Subjects
Adult ,Male ,medicine.medical_specialty ,Time Factors ,stroke ,brain ischemia ,prognosis ,Brain Ischemia ,Brain ischemia ,Cohort Studies ,Age Factors ,Female ,Follow-Up Studies ,Humans ,Italy ,Predictive Value of Tests ,Prospective Studies ,Recurrence ,Stroke ,Young Adult ,Physiology (medical) ,Internal medicine ,medicine ,Myocardial infarction ,Young adult ,Prospective cohort study ,business.industry ,medicine.disease ,Migraine with aura ,Confidence interval ,Surgery ,Cardiology ,medicine.symptom ,Cardiology and Cardiovascular Medicine ,business ,Cohort study - Abstract
Background— Data on long-term risk and predictors of recurrent thrombotic events after ischemic stroke at a young age are limited. Methods and Results— We followed 1867 patients with first-ever ischemic stroke who were 18 to 45 years of age (mean age, 36.8±7.1 years; women, 49.0%), as part of the Italian Project on Stroke in Young Adults (IPSYS). Median follow-up was 40 months (25th to 75th percentile, 53). The primary end point was a composite of ischemic stroke, transient ischemic attack, myocardial infarction, or other arterial events. One hundred sixty-three patients had recurrent thrombotic events (average rate, 2.26 per 100 person-years at risk). At 10 years, cumulative risk was 14.7% (95% confidence interval, 12.2%–17.9%) for primary end point, 14.0% (95% confidence interval, 11.4%–17.1%) for brain ischemia, and 0.7% (95% confidence interval, 0.4%–1.3%) for myocardial infarction or other arterial events. Familial history of stroke, migraine with aura, circulating antiphospholipid antibodies, discontinuation of antiplatelet and antihypertensive medications, and any increase of 1 traditional vascular risk factor were independent predictors of the composite end point in multivariable Cox proportional hazards analysis. A point-scoring system for each variable was generated by their β-coefficients, and a predictive score (IPSYS score) was calculated as the sum of the weighted scores. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of the 0- to 5-year score was 0.66 (95% confidence interval, 0.61–0.71; mean, 10-fold internally cross-validated area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, 0.65). Conclusions— Among patients with ischemic stroke aged 18 to 45 years, the long-term risk of recurrent thrombotic events is associated with modifiable, age-specific risk factors. The IPSYS score may serve as a simple tool for risk estimation.
- Published
- 2014