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Large parts of southern Africa are influenced by extra-tropical weather systems for most of the year. During late summer (December–March), the circulation over the area becomes distinctly tropical. This paper introduces the Africáne, a synoptic scale tropical low-pressure system which has been shown to cause widespread and heavy rainfall over the southern sub-continent of Africa. The frequency of occurrence of Africánes, their contribution to rainfall and interannual variability are discussed in this paper. Africánes occur most frequently at the longitude of the Caprivi area with a second peak in frequency at around 32.5° E. They mostly occur over Namibia, Botswana and Zimbabwe and only infrequently infiltrate as far south as the borders of South Africa. However, when they do occur over South Africa, they cause widespread heavy rainfall and floods. Rainfall is mostly confined to the eastern flank of Africánes and between 20 and 35% of the annual rainfall over southern Africa in late summer can be attributed to these systems. There are two main synoptic regimes associated with Africánes: a westerly wave or tropical-temperature trough combines with the Africáne to pull rainfall southwards into South Africa. The second, is a mid-level subtropical high pressure, located south of the Africáne, which causes the rainfall to be confined to the north. The interannual variability of Africánes are closely linked to rainfall over southern Africa, such that an above normal number of Africánes in a season causes above normal rainfall over southern Africa. The number of Africánes that form per year is linked to El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). It is recommended that the predictability of Africánes on different time scales should be investigated. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Extreme precipitation events (EPEs) have garnered considerable social concerns due to their hazardous and destructive nature. To identify the possible causes of EPEs in China, this paper presents an in-depth investigation of how EPEs coincide with atmospheric conditions, i.e., atmospheric instability, moisture availability and moisture convergence, as well as driving variables, i.e., vertical velocity, relative humidity and air temperature. Specifically, the classic coincidence probability is devised to explicitly relate 72-h EPEs to convective available potential energy (CAPE), precipitable water (PW), vertical velocity at 700 hPa (verV), relative humidity at 700 hPa (RH), average air temperature between 850 and 500 hPa (Tavg) as well as air temperature difference between 850 and 500 hPa (Tdiff). The results show that at the annual timescale, EPEs in Southeast and Southwest China are dominantly controlled by verV, in North and Central China by PW and in Northwest China by CAPE roughly. At the seasonal timescale, the spatial distributions of coincidence probability values and "competition" among atmospheric conditions and driving variables exhibit similar patterns as observed throughout the entire year except for December–January–February. Moreover, the diagnostic plots generated for three case study regions in China provide valuable insights into the temporal evolution of precipitation events, cumulative distribution function curves of influential factors and dominant controlling factors of EPEs. This paper contributes to understandings of the dominant controlling factors of EPEs for the whole of China. The spatial patterns of EPEs and their related atmospheric conditions and driving variables yield useful information for rainstorm forecasting and disaster risk management. Plain Language Summary: Atmospheric conditions, i.e., atmospheric instability, moisture availability and wind convergence, and driving variables, i.e., vertical velocity, relative humidity and air temperature, play important parts in the occurrence of extreme precipitation events (EPEs). In this paper, the 72-h EPEs in China are explicitly related to atmospheric conditions and driving variables by using the classic coincidence probability. Specifically, the relationships are measured by the ratio of the time when precipitation and the given factor both reaching at extreme to the whole time in EPEs. Assuming that the factor exhibiting the highest coincidence probability influences EPEs the most, it is observed that at the annual timescale, vertical velocity at 700 hPa has the greatest impact on EPEs in Southeast and Southwest China as well as part of Northeast China, precipitable water in North and Central China and convective available potential energy in Northwest China. Also, it is found that the results at the seasonal timescale are consistent with that throughout the entire year except for winter. Overall, the results of this paper can help us to understand the possible causes of EPEs and serve in rainstorm forecasting and risk management at grid cell level for the whole of China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The prediction skill for precipitation anomalies in late spring and summer months—a significant component of extreme climate events—has remained stubbornly low for years. This paper presents a new idea that utilizes information on boreal spring land surface temperature/subsurface temperature (LST/SUBT) anomalies over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) to improve prediction of subsequent summer droughts/floods over several regions over the world, East Asia and North America in particular. The work was performed in the framework of the GEWEX/LS4P Phase I (LS4P-I) experiment, which focused on whether the TP LST/SUBT provides an additional source for subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) predictability. The summer 2003, when there were severe drought/flood over the southern/northern part of the Yangtze River basin, respectively, has been selected as the focus case. With the newly developed LST/SUBT initialization method, the observed surface temperature anomaly over the TP has been partially produced by the LS4P-I model ensemble mean, and 8 hotspot regions in the world were identified where June precipitation is significantly associated with anomalies of May TP land temperature. Consideration of the TP LST/SUBT effect has produced about 25–50% of observed precipitation anomalies in most hotspot regions. The multiple models have shown more consistency in the hotspot regions along the Tibetan Plateau-Rocky Mountain Circumglobal (TRC) wave train. The mechanisms for the LST/SUBT effect on the 2003 drought over the southern part of the Yangtze River Basin are discussed. For comparison, the global SST effect has also been tested and 6 regions with significant SST effects were identified in the 2003 case, explaining about 25–50% of precipitation anomalies over most of these regions. This study suggests that the TP LST/SUBT effect is a first-order source of S2S precipitation predictability, and hence it is comparable to that of the SST effect. With the completion of the LS4P-I, the LS4P-II has been launched and the LS4P-II protocol is briefly presented. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Dynamical prediction of monsoon rainfall has been an important topic and a long-standing issue in both research and operational community. This paper provides a comprehensive evaluation of the subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) prediction skill of the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) rainfall using the hindcast record from the Beijing Climate Center Climate System Model, BCC CSM1.1m, during the period 1983–2019. The model exhibits reasonable skills for predicting the EASM rainfall at all lead times with the skill dropping dramatically from the shortest lead time of about 2 weeks (LM0) to 1-month lead (LM1), and then fluctuating remarkably throughout 2-month to 12-month lead times. Over the EASM domain, the rapid decline of the S2S rainfall prediction skill from LM0 to LM1 is mainly caused by the inferior skills over Central China in July and over Northeast China in August. Composite analysis based on hindcast records suggest that these inferior skills are directly tied to the model's difficulties in capturing above-normal precipitation over eastern Central China and Northeast China in the respective months, which are further shown to be associated with anomalous weakening and meridional movement of the Northwestern Pacific subtropical high and the activity of large-scale teleconnection pattern hard to be predicted over northeastern Asia in summer, respectively. These findings inform the intrinsic limits of the S2S predictability of the EASM rainfall by a dynamical model, and strongly suggest that the level of confidence placed upon S2S forecasts should be stratified by large-scale circulation anomalies known to significantly affect the prediction skill, e.g., the subtropical high and high-latitude teleconnection patterns for summer monsoon rainfall prediction in this region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates the spatial inhomogeneity of the time-averaged, quasigeostrophic, double-gyre circulation response to fixed, realistic, large-scale modes of wind-stress forcing. While the companion paper of this study focused on understanding the anatomy of low-frequency, midlatitude climate variability in an idealised, eddy-resolving coupled model, this paper looked at understanding the nature of the wind-induced ocean gyre response using an ocean-only configuration of the same model. Our analysis revealed two, time-averaged responses to an east–west dipole, wind-stress curl anomaly in the ocean basin. Firstly, wind-stress anomalies in the western ocean basin led to changes in relative strength of the inertial recirculation zones and jet-axis tilt. This is consistent with an advection-dominated, nonlinear adjustment of the ocean gyres to anomalous forcing. Secondly, wind-stress curl anomalies in the eastern ocean basin was found to induce a largely independent response involving meridional shifts of the western boundary current extension (WBCE). The effects of time-averaged advection in this region are weak and the discovery of westward-propagating Rossby waves along the WBCE revealed the response is more akin to a baroclinic Rossby wave adjustment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents a comprehensive analysis of the extreme Atlantic and Benguela Niño events that occurred during the boreal spring–summer of 2021. We conducted sensitivity experiments with a regional ocean–atmosphere coupled model of the tropical Atlantic to investigate the phenology of these interannual events, unravel their triggering mechanisms, and quantify the contributions of local and remote processes. The results revealed that both the 2021 Atlantic and Benguela Niños were triggered by anomalous atmospheric fluxes at the model southern boundary (32° S), leading to a significant and persistent weakening of the South Atlantic Anticyclone. The associated poleward anomalous coastal wind off Africa reduced coastal upwelling and evaporation south of 15° S, initiating the Benguela Niño. Then, the relaxation of the equatorial trade winds forced a downwelling equatorial Kelvin wave, which warmed the eastern equatorial region, marking the onset of the Atlantic Niño. The equatorial event reached full maturity in July 2021 through ENSO-like air-sea interactions in the equatorial basin, enhanced by the atmospheric connection associated with low-level winds converging toward the distant coastal warming. While air–sea interactions in the tropical Atlantic acted as a negative feedback for the coastal warming, the ocean connection with the equatorial variability through the propagation of equatorially-forced downwelling coastal waves intensified the coastal warming, peaking end of May 2021. Overall, this research provides valuable insights into the complex dynamics of Atlantic and Benguela Niños, emphasizing the interconnectedness between these two systems. This has important implications for improving Earth system models which currently struggle to simulate these extreme events. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Better understanding on the phases of Indian summer monsoon i.e., onset, progress and withdrawal helps in the decision making and proper management. In this paper, date of onset of monsoon (DOM) and date of withdrawal of monsoon (DWM) is estimated using the long-term daily rainfall data observed by the India Meteorological Department (IMD) and cumulative rainfall anomaly concept, as the onset/withdrawal represents a signature of rainfall transition. The results are promising with a better match between the estimated DOM and IMD announced DOM over Kerala. The length of monsoon season variability is also analysed. The concept of onset at grid point (OGP) in India is also evaluated and progress of monsoon is monitored by considering the latitudinal variation, persistent & strength of rainfall in the continental India. The zonal classification of the spread of monsoon in terms of the intensity and time (duration) is presented. Zone wise pentad analysis of onset clearly signifies the progress of monsoon and its dependency on various physical factors like SST, OLR, TTG, ITCZ, Energy budget and wind circulation. The impact of ENSO on the OGP is brought out, which clearly shows that DOM, DWM and progress is almost influenced by the largescale processes. The intensity–duration–frequency analysis quantified the actual ISM length, seasonal rainfall and rainy days at all locations in India. This study will help modellers in better understanding of onset and progress of monsoon dynamics in India and can be integrated with NWP for the accurate and advance prediction of DOM and the progress. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Previous studies have reported significant uncertainty in the relationship between El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the winter surface air temperature (SAT) over central North America (NA). This paper uses reanalysis data and statistical methods to investigate the possible modulation effect of the Victoria mode (VM) during the preceding spring on the winter ENSO–SAT relationship. The correlation between ENSO and the winter SAT over central NA was found to be significantly positive during the positive VM phase. However, this significant correlation is almost absent during the negative VM phase. Further analysis revealed that the zonal location of the sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) over the tropical Pacific is an essential aspect of this VM modulation. During the positive VM phase, the dominant positive SSTA in the central-eastern tropical Pacific contribute to the formation of the negative phase of the North Pacific Oscillation (NPO)-like teleconnection, which further enhances the anomalous southerly winds and SAT over central NA. In contrast, during the negative VM phase, the Aleutian low-like atmospheric response induced by the central tropical Pacific SSTA is limited to the central North Pacific, which has a limited effect on the variation of the central NA SAT. The VM modulation mechanism is shown to be well reproduced by historical simulations of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6. Our results suggest that, despite the uncertainty associated with the ENSO–SAT connection, ENSO may provide prediction skills for the winter SAT over central NA during the positive VM phase. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An unintended additional aerosol mass of 3.26 Mt was also prescribed at 23 hPa and hence the total amount is 25.76 Mt. However, the results and conclusions in the paper are not at all affected by this unintended additional amount of aerosols at 23 hPa. The online version of the original article can be found at https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-023-06799-3 In the original publication of the paper, we reported that 22.5 Mt of volcanic aerosols was prescribed at 37 hPa. [Extracted from the article]

This paper investigates the effects of advancing deforestation in the southwestern Amazon on local hydroclimate. For this purpose, a high-resolution mesoscale model, coupled with a land surface model and a hydrologic routing model, is integrated for five years in two experiments, one control without changes in land use and another changing land use annually. During the rainy season, simulated higher precipitation volumes are reduced with the expansion of pasture lands. In the dry periods, mainly in August, there is an increase in precipitation over some deforested areas, which can be associated with mesoscale circulations induced by the heterogeneous surface. In general, land-use changes reduce evapotranspiration and the net radiation at the surface and increase the sensible heat flux during the dry season. In the rainy period, there is an increase in evapotranspiration with the intensification of deforestation, which modifies the other components of energy balance. Results suggest that the impact of LUCC on the local climate is more affected by conditions that generate precipitation extremes (El Niño/La Niña events) than by the abrupt increase in the annual deforestation rate. Land-use changes reduce the streamflow in all sub-basins of Ji-Parana during the dry season. In the rainy season, LUCC increases the streamflow during periods with normal precipitation conditions and La Niña in almost all sub-basins, except in the sub-basin with more than 20% deforestation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Kuroshio Extension (KE) is a narrow midlatitude zonally oceanic jet-like flow, characterized by abundant mesoscale eddies and intense air–sea interaction with significant impact on the North Pacific storm track. Using two sets of coupled model simulations with FGOALS and HadGEM3, this paper evaluates the benefits of high-resolution models in simulating the climatological structure of the KE and its historical warming trend, by comparing high-resolution with low-resolution simulations from the same model. It is found that high-resolution models consistently improve the simulated KE intensity and enhanced warming trend. In low-resolution models, the warming is centered more northernly (around 40° N) and shallower (about 300 m) compared to observations (around 35° N). In high-resolution simulations the warming is much more concentrated, located around 35° N with two warming centres in the vertical, one near the surface and one in the subsurface. Decadal temperature changes mainly reflect positional KE shifts, with northward movement resulting in a warming and southward movement resulting in cooling. Heat budget analysis shows the temperature advection term was the major contributor to the Kuroshio Extension enhanced warming, suggesting a possible intensification of the western boundary circulation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Quantifying the extent of change in climatic and hydrological variables in the past and the future is essential for climate change-resilient development, especially in the climate change sensitive region of Nepal. This paper analyzed future climatic trends and extremes, historical hydrological extremes and their linkage with historical precipitation extremes, and discussed the impacts of climate change on various sectors in the less-studied Small and Medium-sized Eastern River Basins (SMERB) of Nepal. Applying an ensemble of five Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) global climate models (GCMs), we evaluated 10 precipitation and 13 temperature extreme indices using Climpact2 for the historical (1979–2020), near-future (2021–2045), mid-future (2046–2070) and far-future (2071–2100) under two Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP), SSP245 and SSP585. Hydrological extreme indices were assessed using Indicators of Hydrologic Alteration tool. Projected climate revealed significant increase (9–73%) in annual and seasonal rainfall except winter; frequent intense rainfall extremes but prolonged dry spells; significant increasing minimum and maximum temperature trends (0.4–5 °C); rise in extreme heat events; increasing minimum and maximum discharge extreme trends in most hydrological stations; as well as strong association between maximum 1 day precipitation (Rx1day) and 1 day max flow for all stations. Growing dry periods but intense rainfall in few wet days, coupled with warming pattern all-over SMERB with frequent extreme events indicate high risk for future climate-related disasters. The harsher climate will potentially have damaging implications, especially in climate-induced disasters, food security, and water and sanitation infrastructure. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates the process behind climate model biases, especially in rainfall, during the southwest (June to August; JJA) and northeast monsoon (December to February; DJF) seasons over the Philippines using the downscaled Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) simulations of the Southeast Asia Regional Climate Downscaling/Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment-Southeast Asia (SEACLID/CORDEX-SEA). Biases in the surface and near-surface climate are assessed over land in eastern (EastPH) and western (WestPH) Philippines using observation and reanalysis datasets. Results show that models with well-represented sea surface temperature (SST) provided better added values after downscaling. Although the CMIP5-driven models tend to overestimate both surface energy and water partitioning, simulations with well-represented SST have better surface energy partitions. In contrast to the reference simulation driven by ERA-Interim reanalysis, the CMIP5-driven simulations tend to underestimate (overestimate) moisture flux convergence during the DJF (JJA) season, which might have contributed to the overall underestimation (overestimation) of rainfall in this season. Further investigation along a vertical transect shows the differences in governing mechanisms for each season. During DJF (JJA) season, the simulation with underestimated (overestimated) SST, near-surface air temperature, and mixing ratio results in underestimated (overestimated) rainfall over EastPH (WestPH). In addition, the CMIP5-driven models were found to overestimate low-level winds, which may have induced the deep convection regardless of season, suggesting the role of low-level winds in the convection scheme used in RegCM4 aside from topography and land cover. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Thunderstorms are usually accompanied by heavy precipitation and other disasters. Therefore, it is very important to study the thermodynamic and dynamic mechanisms that control the occurrence and development of storms. However, the relatively coarse resolution of the reanalysis may limit the evaluation and application of its derived convective parameters at regional and local scales, especially in high mountains. Given that the effect of grid averaging on ERA5 can be well-reflected in the monthly mean, the paper proposes a methodological framework to achieve the statistical downscaling of convective parameters (SDCP). After the convection-related variables are decomposed, we introduce a multi-scale geographically weighted regression (MGWR) model and take the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and the Digital Elevation Model (DEM) as explanatory variables to improve the spatial resolution of monthly-scale convective parameters. The convective parameters chosen for the downscaling experiments are closely related to thunderstorm occurrence, involving instability, moisture, and wind shear. ERA5 and SDCP datasets' quality is evaluated based on measurements available from 11 radiosonde stations over 10 years. We also explore the climatology of thunderstorm environments and the corresponding trends. The results show that the accuracy of the SDCP data obtains additional added value in complex-terrain areas. Compared with ERA5, the downscaled results have a finer spatial structure. A strong but spatially and scale-varying relationship exists between the monthly mean convective parameter and the resampled NDVI and DEM. Considering the very high predictive ability of the MGWR model, the performance of the SDCP algorithm mainly depends on the accuracy of the ERA5 data. Our study demonstrates the possibility of high spatial resolution land surface features observed by remote sensing satellites in improving the spatial resolution of thermodynamic parameters. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Seasonal precipitation and temperature predictions with global climate models that are developed based on the ocean–atmosphere interactions, contribute to the water resources management and hazard mitigation. To date, multi-model ensemble seasonal climate prediction systems, such as North American multi-model ensemble (NMME), are an effective way to provide useful forecast information a few months ahead especially over regions with strong ocean–atmosphere coupling. Previous studies have evaluated the skill of NMME hindcasts worldwide, however, whether the NMME real-time forecasts perform as well as the hindcasts and how the decadal variability in ocean-atmospheric teleconnections affect the prediction skill remain unclear. In this paper, based on precipitation and temperature datasets from nine models of NMME, the evaluation of forecast skills during hindcast (1982–2010) and real-time forecast (2011–2020) periods is carried out in the Yangtze River basin over China. Results show that although selecting an appropriate time frame for the calculation of climatology can reduce errors of real-time prediction, but the real-time prediction skills are lower than hindcast skills in the Yangtze River basin, with anomaly correlation decreased by 14–51% (38–75%) and error increased by 30–31% (51–55%) for seasonal precipitation (temperature) predictions up to the sixth lead-season, and the skill decrease is larger at longer leads. The failure in representing the decadal variations of ocean-atmospheric teleconnection (especially the association with Indian Ocean surface temperature) during the real-time forecast period can partly explain the decline in the prediction skills. Our findings suggest that a better grasp of decadal variability is needed to improve the real-time climate predictions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Stratospheric Aerosol Geoengineering (SAG) is one of the solar geoengineering approaches that have been proposed to offset some of the impacts of anthropogenic climate change. Past studies have shown that SAG may have adverse impacts on the global hydrological cycle. Using a climate model, we quantify the sensitivity of the tropical monsoon precipitation to the meridional distribution of volcanic sulfate aerosols prescribed in the stratosphere in terms of the changes in aerosol optical depth (AOD). In our experiments, large changes in summer monsoon precipitation in the tropical monsoon regions are simulated, especially over the Indian region, in association with meridional shifts in the location of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) caused by changes in interhemispheric AOD differences. Based on our simulations, we estimate a sensitivity of − 1.8° ± 0.0° meridional shift in global mean ITCZ and a 6.9 ± 0.4% reduction in northern hemisphere (NH) monsoon index (NHMI; summer monsoon precipitation over NH monsoon regions) per 0.1 interhemispheric AOD difference (NH minus southern hemisphere). We also quantify this sensitivity in terms of interhemispheric differences in effective radiative forcing and interhemispheric temperature differences: 3.5 ± 0.3% change in NHMI per unit (Wm−2) interhemispheric radiative forcing difference and 5.9 ± 0.4% change per unit (°C) interhemispheric temperature difference. Similar sensitivity estimates are also made for the Indian monsoon precipitation. The establishment of the relationship between interhemispheric AOD (or radiative forcing) differences and ITCZ shift as discussed in this paper will further facilitate and simplify our understanding of the effects of SAG on tropical monsoon rainfall. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Changing climate has altered the trends and variability of precipitation and temperature globally and thereby increasing the risk of natural and social disasters, especially in coastal climatic transitional zones such as the Huaihe river basin (HRB). This paper applies the Empirical Quantile Mapping (EQM) method for bias correction and systematically evaluates the performance of the 30 Global climate models (GCMs) of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) in simulating precipitation and temperature over the Huaihe river basin (HRB) for 1979–2014. A suitable multi-model ensemble subset (BMME) is selected based on the Euclidean Distance (ED) synthetic metric. Results show that in comparison to the baseline period 1995–2014, precipitation (temperature) over HRB is projected to increase at the rate of around 15 mm/decade (0.1 °C/decade), 16 mm/decade (0.3 °C/decade), 20 mm/decade (0.5 °C/decade), and 15 mm/decade (0.6 °C/decade) for the period 2015–2100, under Shared Socioeconomic Pathways SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5, respectively. In the long-term (2081–2100), the annual precipitation is projected to increase by 32%, 27%, 35%, and 26%, under the four scenarios, respectively. The temperature is projected to remain stable or slightly decrease under SSP1-2.6 (2 °C) and SSP2-4.5 (3 °C), while will keep rising and increasing by 6 °C under SSP5-8.5 and by 4 °C under SSP3-7.0 by 2100. The isotherm and isohyet are projected to shift northwest from southeastern coastal China to inland in the future, which is likely associated with the northwestward shift of the western Pacific anticyclone in summer. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Nepal experienced record-breaking summer monsoon precipitation in 2020, becoming the wettest year of the last four decades (1980–2020). This paper explores the role of large-scale atmospheric circulation and sea surface temperature patterns in tipping an otherwise typical wet summer into an extreme one in 2020. The unusually high precipitation was fuelled by the Western North Pacific Anticyclone (WNPAC), concomitant with the strong presence of moist static energy and enhanced vertical velocity in and near Nepal. Sea surface temperature anomalies showed an intense Indian Ocean warming and features of a La Niña, succeeding a weak El Niño event that had sustained the WNPAC. The southwesterly winds on the northern flank of then WNPAC contributed excess moisture transport and convergence to Nepal, consequently resulting in elevated precipitation. This feature is consistent with previous wet summer years, but the presence of WNPAC in those years followed the El Niño event. Therefore, it appears that the Indo-western Pacific Ocean Capacitor (IPOC) effect exerts the above-normal precipitation for the summer of 2020 without involving the El Niño event, while anthropogenic warming may have further tipped the balance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

High-frequency precipitation variance is calculated in 12 different free-running (non-data-assimilative) coupled high resolution atmosphere–ocean model simulations, an assimilative coupled atmosphere–ocean weather forecast model, and an assimilative reanalysis. The results are compared with results from satellite estimates of precipitation and rain gauge observations. An analysis of irregular sub-daily fluctuations, which was applied by Covey et al. (Geophys Res Lett 45:12514–12522, 2018. https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GL078926) to satellite products and low-resolution climate models, is applied here to rain gauges and higher-resolution models. In contrast to lower-resolution climate simulations, which Covey et al. (2018) found to be lacking with respect to variance in irregular sub-daily fluctuations, the highest-resolution simulations examined here display an irregular sub-daily fluctuation variance that lies closer to that found in satellite products. Most of the simulations used here cannot be analyzed via the Covey et al. (2018) technique, because they do not output precipitation at sub-daily intervals. Thus the remainder of the paper focuses on frequency power spectral density of precipitation and on cumulative distribution functions over time scales (2–100 days) that are still relatively "high-frequency" in the context of climate modeling. Refined atmospheric or oceanic model grid spacing is generally found to increase high-frequency precipitation variance in simulations, approaching the values derived from observations. Mesoscale-eddy-rich ocean simulations significantly increase precipitation variance only when the atmosphere grid spacing is sufficiently fine (< 0.5°). Despite the improvements noted above, all of the simulations examined here suffer from the "drizzle effect", in which precipitation is not temporally intermittent to the extent found in observations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Surface solar radiation (SSR) and energy balance are closely related to the Earth's climate, water cycle, atmospheric conditions, and thus the human habitat, and accurate tracking of the energy cycle is essential. However, a certain degree of uncertainty still exists in current studies of long-term SSR changes due to the lack of a state-of-the-art benchmark observational dataset. To understand this issue, we present a systematic comparison of SSR from in-situ observations, the Fifth generation European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) reanalysis (ERA5), and the The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project—Phase 6 (CMIP6) in this paper. Our results show that: (1) The reverse interpolated station SSR series based on the ERA5 and the CMIP6 multi-models ensemble (MME) reflects the observed SSR values at the local/station scale to a certain degree. Although the underestimation/overestimation varies slightly in different regions/stations, the overall Mean Absolute Error (MAE) and Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) are about 15% and 21%, respectively of the observations. (2) Both the ERA5 SSR and the CMIP6 MME roughly reflect the seasonal variability and the spatial distributions of the SSR's climatological means (1971–2000) from gridded in-situ observations. (3) The SSR from the ERA5 is more consistent with observations than the CMIP6 MME in the temporal variations, long-term trend, and the uncertainties at global and continental scales. The latter has insignificant fluctuations in interannual variability, consistent with the trend in-situ observations only from 1950 to 1990, but fails the significant test (at 5% level) after that except for some regions. Therefore, developing a higher quality global long-term SSR benchmark climatic dataset with more complete coverage is still of great significance for optimizing surface energy balance estimates and studies of the impact of human activities on climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Harmful heatwave events that cause serious damage to human society and natural environment have occurred with increasing frequencies worldwide. In this paper, we classify summer heatwave events in the Northern Hemisphere through a new method considering more comprehensive event characteristics of the intensity, duration, affected area and humidity amplification. Apart from low-severity events in which all event characteristics are at normal levels, there are also five main different high-severity event types in nature, including high-intensity, high-humidity-amplification, long-duration, large-area and long-duration-large-area events. Different types of high-severity events usually occur at different locations in the Northern Hemisphere. The proportion of high-severity events, which is calculated as the ratio of the high-severity event number to the total heatwave number, increased significantly after 1989, and these increases probably came mostly from large-area and long-duration-large-area events. Further model analyses using the Detection and Attribution Model Intercomparison Project and Scenario Model Intercomparison Project of CMIP6 show that greenhouse gas-related external forcing is the leading cause of the significant increases in these two types of heatwave events. Anthropogenic activities are suggested to cause more rapidly increasing occurrences of extreme heatwaves with large affected areas and heatwaves with both long durations and large affected areas. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

More than 85% of the Ethiopian population's livelihood depends on rain-fed agriculture. Therefore, accurate climate estimation is quite useful to improve food security. However, the poor spatial resolution of satellite open access Outgoing Long-wave Radiation (OLR) data and the complicated relationship with the temperature and precipitation over variable topography features, the climate estimation is below the satisfactory level. Hence, to address this problem, this paper aimed to model OLR based on moisture parameters related to the air temperature in Ethiopia. European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) and satellite data from 1981 to 2020 has been used to develop a new OLR model. The atmospheric moisture budget equation was applied for the new OLR mode development. The results indicated that the seasonal variation moisture coefficient (α) for winter, spring, summer, and autumn is found 0.99, − 0.29, 0.91, and 0.98 m3w−1 which is satisfied the model requirement. During winter, spring, summer, and autumn, the average value of OLR are found 269.60, 246.10, 247.90, and 255.60 Wm−2 from satellite direct observation respectively; while from the developed model is found at 268.79, 244.01, 248.97 and 254.93 Wm−2 respectively. Based on error matrices the developed mode is well agreed with satellite direct observation at a specific point and it is helpful to estimate OLR in the required spatial resolution. Generally the increment of the local moisture which is decreased OLR and increases the air temperature. Hence, stakeholders must pay high attention to the new OLR model adaptations for flood prevention and drought monitoring in Ethiopia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An Emergent Constraint (EC) is a physically-explainable relationship between model simulations of a past climate variable (predictor) and projections of a future climate variable (predictand). If a significant correlation exists between the predictand and the predictor, observations of the latter can be used to constrain model projections of the former and to narrow their uncertainties. In the present study, the EC technique has been applied to the analysis of precipitation, one of the variables most affected by model uncertainties and still insufficiently analysed in the context of ECs, particularly for the recent CMIP6 model ensemble. The main challenge in determining an EC is establishing if the relationship found is physically meaningful and robust to the composition of the model ensemble. Four precipitation ECs already documented in the literature and so far tested only with CMIP3/CMIP5, three of them involving the analysis of extreme precipitation, have been reconsidered in this paper. Their existence and robustness are evaluated using different subsets of CMIP5 and CMIP6 models, verifying if the EC is still present in the most recent ensemble and assessing its sensitivity to the detailed ensemble composition. Most ECs considered do not pass this test: we found one EC not to be robust in both CMIP5 and CMIP6, other two exist and are robust in CMIP5 but not in CMIP6, and only one is verified and is robust in both model ensembles. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents results from high-resolution climate change simulations that permit convection and resolve mesoscale orography at 3-km grid spacing over Fenno-Scandinavia using the HARMONIE-Climate (HCLIM) model. Two global climate models (GCMs) have been dynamically down-scaled for the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 emission scenarios and for both near and far future periods in the 21st century. The warmer and moister climate conditions simulated in the GCMs lead to changes in precipitation characteristics. Higher precipitation amounts are simulated in fall, winter and spring, while in summer, precipitation increases in northern Fenno-Scandinavia and decreases in the southern parts of the domain. Both daily and sub-daily intense precipitation over Fenno-Scandinavia become more frequent at the expense of low-intensity events, with most pronounced shifts in summer. In the Scandinavian mountains, pronounced changes occur in the snow climate with a shift in precipitation falling as snow to rain, reduced snow cover and less days with a significant snow depth. HCLIM at 3-km grid spacing exhibits systematically different change responses in several aspects, e.g. a smaller shift from snow to rain in the western part of the Scandinavian mountains and a more consistent decrease in the urban heat island effect by the end of the 21st century. Most importantly, the high-resolution HCLIM shows a significantly stronger increase in summer hourly precipitation extremes compared to HCLIM at the intermediate 12-km grid spacing. In addition, an analysis of the statistical significance of precipitation changes indicates that simulated time periods of at least a couple of decades is recommended to achieve statistically robust results, a matter of important concern when running such high-resolution climate model experiments. The results presented here emphasizes the importance of using "convection-permitting" models to produce reliable climate change information over the Fenno-Scandinavian region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the impact of Ural blocking (UB) on winter sub-seasonal Siberian cold anomalies under the different background conditions of the winter East Asian trough (EAT). It is found that the meridional displacement and the strength of the winter EAT possibly modulate the persistence or lifetime of UB and associated sub-seasonal cold anomalies over Siberia through changing background circulation conditions. Statistical analysis reveals that UB events tend to occur more frequently in strong or southward EAT winters than in weak or northward EAT winters. A composite analysis of UB events further shows that UB has larger amplitude and longer lifetime in strong or southward EAT winters (especially the latter) than in weak or northward EAT winters, thus more likely leading to stronger sub-seasonal cold anomalies over Siberia. Moreover, the possible physical cause of why a strong or southward EAT favors UB is further investigated. It is found that winter zonal wind and meridional gradient of potential vorticity (PVy) tend to be weakened on the upstream side of Siberia near the Ural Mountains when the EAT is stronger or located more southward, favoring the maintenance of UB due to the strengthening (weakening) of the nonlinearity (energy dispersion) of UB. In contrast, when the EAT is weak or northward-displaced, a strengthening of winter zonal wind and PVy is more likely seen over the Ural Mountains and adjacent regions, which may suppress UB through enhancing its energy dispersion and reducing its nonlinearity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Tropical cyclones have resulted in casualties and economic losses in the areas surrounding the Bay of Bengal (BoB). Thus, a comprehensive investigation of these tropical cyclones holds vital implications for disaster preparedness and mitigation. This paper compares the occurrence of storms in the last two decades, i.e., 2002–2011 and 2012–2021, and results reveal that such storms exhibited predominantly a northwesterly track towards the northwestern BoB, with a severer intensity but equal total storm frequencies. Over the past decade, a southeast-northwest pathway (SNP) was identified, demonstrating a higher incidence of severe tropical cyclones (STC, with lifetime maximum intensity ≥ 64 knots) over the BoB. Further analysis of the changes in the environmental conditions between these two decades indicates that a southeasterly anomaly in the steering flow contributed to the formation of the SNP. During the same period, the more favorable oceanic conditions during the last decade, including higher sea surface temperatures, a greater upper ocean heat content, a thicker warm water layer, and a thicker barrier layer beneath the SNP, favored the development of these storms by providing more heat energy to the storms. The atmospheric conditions, including increased air-sea heat fluxes, moisture, and instability within the lower troposphere, as well as reduced vertical wind shear, facilitated the development of convection within these storm systems. These favorable conditions improved the potential for storm development into STCs and elevated the risk of the northwestern BoB being impacted by more destructive storms. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Meteorological processes over islands with complex orography could be better simulated by Convection Permitting Regional Climate Models (CP-RCMs) thanks to an improved representation of the orography, land–sea contrasts, the combination of coastal and orographic effects, and explicit deep convection. This paper evaluates the ability of the CP-RCM CNRM-AROME (2.5-km horizontal resolution) to simulate relevant meteorological characteristics of the Mediterranean island of Corsica for the 2000–2018 period. These hindcast simulations are compared to their driving Regional Climate Model (RCM) CNRM-ALADIN (12.5-km horizontal resolution and parameterised convection), weather stations for precipitation and wind and gridded precipitation datasets. The main benefits are found in the representation of (i) precipitation extremes resulting mainly from mesoscale convective systems affected by steep mountains during autumn and (ii) the formation of convection through thermally induced diurnal circulations and their interaction with the orography during summer. Simulations of hourly precipitation extremes, the diurnal cycle of precipitation, the distribution of precipitation intensities, the duration of precipitation events, and sea breezes are all improved in the 2.5-km simulations with respect to the RCM, confirming an added value. However, existing differences between model simulations and observations are difficult to explain as the main biases are related to the availability and quality of observations, particularly at high elevations. Overall, better results from the 2.5-km resolution, increase our confidence in CP-RCMs to investigate future climate projections for Corsica and islands with complex terrain. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is an important interannual atmosphere–ocean interaction phenomenon in the tropical Pacific. To study ENSO, the atmosphere–ocean coupled models are frequently used to simulate ENSO behaviors and mechanisms. The capability of a single model is limited to simulate the temporal-spatial variations of ENSO; therefore, the simulations are required to be improved through the statistical ensemble method. Based on ENSO simulations of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), this paper applied the conditional multi-model ensemble (CMME) method, compared the MME method, investigating the ensemble results and physical reasons of improvement. The CMME can reproduce ENSO behaviors very well, including ENSO's interannual variability, temporal-spatial evolution, seasonal phase-locking, as well as the asymmetry of El Niño and La Niña. Besides, due to the reproductions of ENSO initiation, positive and negative feedback and nonlinear heating mechanism, we point out that the CMME capturing ENSO mechanisms is the reason why it can perform ENSO characteristics. Statistical results also support that this CMME method is effective, stable, and reliable. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, the influence of emerging low level jet (LLJ) core zone on the Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) examined during the period 1981–2020 using ERA5 reanalysis, Indian Monsoon Data Assimilation and Analysis (IMDAA) along with Indian Meteorology Department (IMD) rainfall. The analysis spans the entirety of India, encompassing various regions, including Central India (68°–87° E, 15° N–26° N), Northeast India (83°–98.5° E, 21°–30° N), Northwest India (69°–84° E, 22°–37° N), and the Southern Peninsula (74°–85° E, 7°–19° N). Our analysis found a significant correlation between the magnitude of LLJ core zone and ISMR across these regions, except for North-East India, in both data sets (0.5–0.8) at a 0.01 significance level. ERA5 and IMDAA, both data sets, reflect the spatial climatological aspects of LLJ at seasonal and sub-seasonal scales. However, compared to the ERA5 data, the amplitude of LLJ wind is lower in the IMDAA data over the evolving core zone. This study provides pivotal insights into the dynamics of the core LLJ zone and its relationship with ISMR, including its associations with varying Indian monsoon patterns and teleconnections with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) phases. This study hold significant implications for various sectors reliant on accurate monsoon predictions and weather forecasting. By elucidating the evolving dynamics of the core zone of the LLJ and its connection with ISMR, the research provides a valuable framework for enhancing the precision of monsoon forecasting models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The detection and the functioning of the mid-summer drought (MSD) represent valuable information due to its socio-economic implications for the Caribbean. Current methods using local-scale rainfall to define the MSD have some limitations. This paper presents a novel approach to detect MSD from regional-scale weather types (WT). Long sequences of a typical summertime anticyclonic WT allow the detection of the onset and demise dates of the MSD for most years in 1950–2021. The MSD defined with WT (MSD-WT) begins rather abruptly on June 13th and concludes on August 21st, on average. While the interannual variations of the MSD-WT onset are relatively weak, long-term trends since 1950 indicate progressive earlier onsets, longer durations, and weakening intensities of the MSD-WT. Our results do not show the anticipated westward shift of the North Atlantic subtropical high pressure typically related to MSD. Instead, they indicate a halt of its eastward shift close to the MSD-WT onset. The absence of significant correlations between MSD-WT onset and either the Tropical North Atlantic or the Eastern Tropical Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) in May–June also suggests a mostly intrinsic atmospheric mechanism locked to the annual cycle, thus limiting the seasonal predictability of the MSD-WT onset. Furthermore, our results indicate a lag between the timing of increased subsidence, acceleration of the Caribbean low-level jet (CLLJ), and intensification of the deep convection over Central America and Mexico. This leads us to develop a novel hypothesis putting forward the monsoon circulation over Meso-America as a potential precursor of the increased subsidence over the Caribbean basin and the synchronous acceleration of CLLJ. The MSD-WT demise is more gradual and corresponds to a decrease in regional-scale mean sea level pressure and a weakening of the CLLJ. MSD-WT demise dates exhibit also relatively larger interannual variations but, unlike its onset, do not show any significant long-term trend. Anomalously warm (cold) Tropical North Atlantic and cold (warm) East Pacific SST from early June are correlated with an earlier (later) MSD-WT demise than usual. MSD-WT demise seems to involve regional-scale air-sea couplings and exhibits thus more seasonal predictability. Finally, despite a consistent response to the CLLJ, distinct processes seem to produce the relatively dry conditions observed over the Pacific coast of Central America and the Caribbean basin during the MSD. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The onset of the South China Sea summer monsoon (SCSSM) implies the transition of East Asian monsoon circulation from winter to summer, which affects not only the local weather and climate near the South China Sea (SCS) but also other regions through remote teleconnection. In this paper, the interdecadal variability characteristics of the SCSSM onset are analyzed by using various datasets as well as its possible mechanisms. The results show that there is a significant interdecadal delay in the onset date of the SCSSM after 2010. The onset is early around May 13th during 1994–2009. However, the onset is significantly later during 2010–2020 with an average of May 30th. Besides, the air and ocean conditions in SCS in May also took a significant decadal shift around 2010 and manifested itself in atmospheric forcing on the ocean, thus the SCSSM onset is mainly remotely influenced by the tropical Ocean instead of local SST. It is found that the interdecadal variation of the SCSSM onset is mainly caused by the decadal warming/cooling of the tropical central Pacific SST. The SCSSM onset's relationship with the tropical central Pacific SST seems more binding and stable relative to that with the tropical eastern Pacific SST. Their correlation is stable and still reaches the significant test in recent years. Therefore, the warming of the tropical central Pacific SST during 2010–2020 tends to postpone the SCSSM onset by means of related anomalous anticyclones and weakened activity of low-frequency Oscillation and tropical cyclones. On the contrary, its cooling led to early SCSSM onset during 1994–2009. Therefore, more and special attention should be paid to the tropical central Pacific SST anomaly, it will help us to monitor and predict the SCSSM onset effectively, and improve the seasonal prediction of East Asia summer monsoon greatly. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Tibetan Plateau vortices (TPVs) are mesoscale weather systems active at the near-surface of the Tibetan Plateau (TP), which are one of the major precipitation-producing systems over the TP and its surrounding areas. TPVs mainly occur in the warm season from May to September. In this paper, we investigated the interdecadal change of TPVs in the warm seasons of 1979–2020 with the six widely used reanalysis datasets. A significant change of the TPVs frequency appears around the mid-1990s, associated with less TPVs during 1979–1995 and more TPVs during 1996–2020, which is constant among the multiple reanalysis datasets. The abrupt change of TPVs is caused by a transition of the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO) from a cold phase to a warm phase in the mid-1990s. The shift of AMO leads to a silk-road pattern-like wave train and a spatially asymmetric change of tropospheric temperature. It modifies the intensity of the subtropical westerly jet and the TP heating, leading to the interdecadal change of TPV activities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is one of the most prominent modes of coupled variability with sizable impacts on global climate and weather patterns, which makes the ability to predict the occurrence and development of ENSO events of fundamental importance. In order to achieve accurate and timely predictions, a well-established strategy is to understand and monitor known ENSO precursors. In this paper, we focus on North Pacific Oscillation (NPO)-related precursors, namely the trade wind charging and the Northern Pacific meridional mode (TWC/NPMM). In particular, we assess whether the TWC/NPMM mode and its relationship with ENSO is reconstructed across the CMIP6 protocol-driven ensemble High Resolution Model Intercomparison Project, which was developed to systematically test the impact of increased horizontal resolution. Here, we see that the TWC/NPMM is a consistent precursor of ENSO across the ensemble, notwithstanding some spatial variations in the reconstruction. Furthermore, previous analyses on observationally-based data show that the TWC/NPMM-ENSO relationship is robust, albeit not stationary, and its variations can influence the characteristic variability of ENSO itself. In particular, during those years when the TWC/NPMM-ENSO coupling is weak, ENSO oscillates regularly with constant periodicity; whereas, when the coupling is strong, ENSO shows a more stochastic behavior. A selected subset of better-performing HighResMIP models are able to reproduce the non-stationarity of the TWC/NPMM-ENSO coupling and to recreate how these variations are reflected in the characteristics of ENSO variability, similar to what was recorded in the observational analysis. In parallel with these analyses, we also assess their sensitivity to horizontal resolution and find that there is no consistent impact of resolution on the results described above. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Tibetan Plateau (TP) affects its surrounding regions through thermal and dynamic processes. Hydrological cycles in TP are experiencing dramatic changes under the warming climate. As one of the most important circulations, the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) affects precipitation changes and therefore has a major effect on TP water resources. In this paper, the widths of ISM are defined as extents perpendicular to the moisture trajectories. They were calculated using ground-based measurements and verified with reanalysis datasets. The directions of maximum summer precipitation decreases (Dirmin) were selected using the cluster proxy of directions of daily maximum winds (Wd) and the slope aspects derived from digital elevation models (DEMs) at various resolutions. The major findings were that (1) similar southwestern Dirmin were found based on the Wd and the slope aspects derived from DEMs with resolutions of 100 and 200 km; (2) Reanalysis data from China Meteorological Forcing Dataset verified that a high percentage (~ 90%) of cells showing precipitation decreases also had slope aspects (derived from 100- and 200-km resolution DEMs) in the range of 112.5°–247.5°; (3) The possible widths of ISM trajectories in TP were approximately 100–200 km. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A number of recent papers have examined sea level data, both local tide gauge records and regional/global averages, to estimate not only how fast sea level is rising but how the rate has changed over time, i.e. its pattern of acceleration and deceleration. In addition, a number of claims of cyclic/quasi-periodic variations have been proposed. However, many of these papers contain technical problems which call their results into question. In particular, the issue of autocorrelation is often ignored, and even when it is addressed its impact has sometimes been misinterpreted. Autocorrelation does more than just affect the standard errors of regression analysis, it can also make the spectrum of a noise process distinctly 'red' and therefore be highly suggestive of low-frequency periodic or pseudo-periodic behavior when none is present. If any analysis is applied which acts as a band-pass filter, it can further exaggerate the illusion of oscillatory behavior. These issues are highlighted in a small number of recent papers, in order to improve the quality of future work on this subject. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The present paper investigates changes in the feedback of Indian Ocean warming on the western Pacific by using observational data and model experiments. It is found that the relationship between easterly wind anomalies over the equatorial western Pacific and Indian Ocean warming during the mature and decaying phases of El Niño has changed since 1994. Before 1994, when El Niño reached its peak in the winter, significant warming of the entire Indian Ocean caused tropospheric temperature anomalies and emanated Kelvin waves into the western Pacific. Thus, Indian Ocean warming produced easterly wind anomalies over the western Pacific. However, significant warming of the Indian Ocean has been confined to the west of the Indian Ocean and Kelvin waves have been weakened since 1994. Therefore, the Indian Ocean has contributed less to easterly wind anomalies in the western Pacific after 1994. Changes in the intensity and pattern of the Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) mode may be responsible for these results. After 1994, the intensity of the IOD, especially the intensity of the cold component of the IOD mode, has become stronger, resulting in Indian Ocean warming being confined to the west of the Indian Ocean. These results are confirmed by numerical model experiments. The paper also discusses the enhancement in the feedback of the north tropical Atlantic on El Niño after 1994. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A correction to this paper has been published: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-021-05721-z [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Research into weather circulation changes over the UK for future climate has mainly focused on changes in the Summer and Winter seasons, with less analysis on seasonality and the transition seasons. Using the 30 Met Office weather patterns we examine the influence of climate change on seasonality through atmospheric circulation using a number of climate models. Changes in seasonality are important as they can have large impacts on many sectors including agriculture, energy and tourism. This paper finds a noticeable increase in Autumn over the UK in the frequency of drier summer-type regimes and a decrease in stormy winter types that emerge as early as the 2020s. The change in circulation signal once isolated from the overall signal is responsible for a 4–12% decrease in Autumn mean rainfall on average for England by the end of this century (where the values in the range are dependent on the emissions scenario). This change is projected over English regions that are already experiencing water stress, and with predictions of drier summers over the UK in future, this could further increase drought risk. The change in circulation in Autumn also moderates the large increase in the number of large-scale extreme daily rainfall events over the same regions predicted due to climate change. While this future circulation change is replicated across all the climate models used, large differences remain in the strength of the signal between models. The climate models used replicate the frequency of the 30 weather patterns well for all seasons. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In recent years, the winter surface air temperature (SAT) anomaly over North American midlatitudes shows a "warm west/cold east" (WWCE) dipole pattern with warm (cold) extremes occurring in the west (east) of North America. In this paper, the Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) condition linked to the WWCE SAT dipole is investigated. It is found that the winter WWCE dipole can be crudely considered as being a result of the winter mean of sub-seasonal WWCE events. While the sub-seasonal WWCE dipole is related to the positive Pacific North American pattern (PNA+), the impact of the PNA+ on the WWCE dipole depends on the different type of El Niño SST pattern and the phase of Pacific decadal Oscillation (PDO). For a Central-Pacific (CP) type El Niño, the positive (negative) height anomaly center of PNA+ is located in the western (eastern) North America to cause a strong WWCE dipole, though the positive PDO favors the WWCE dipole. In contrast, the WWCE dipole is suppressed under an Eastern-Pacific (EP) type El Niño because the anticyclonic anomaly of the PNA+ dominates the whole North America. Moreover, the physical cause of why different types of El Niño influence PNA+ is further examined. It is found that different types of El Niño can significantly influence the midlatitude location of PNA+ through changing North Pacific midlatitude westerly winds due to changes in the Pacific Hadley cell. For the CP-type El Niño, the eastward migration of PNA+ is suppressed to favor its anticyclonic (cyclonic) anomaly appearing in the western (eastern) North America due to reduced midlatitude westerly winds via weakened Pacific Hadley cell. But for the EP-type El Niño, midlatitude westerly wind is intensified to cause the midlatitude anticyclonic anomaly of the PNA+ appearing over the whole North America due to enhanced Pacific Hadley cell. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Previous studies have revealed that extratropical forcing can lead to changes in the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ). Based on reanalysis data from 1979 to 2019, this paper discusses the influence of the South Pacific Ocean Dipole (SPOD, a dominant mode between the subtropics and extratropics in the South Pacific) and its coordination with ENSO in the ITCZ. Results show that SPOD has an effect on the position and intensity of the ITCZ, especially in the region around Niño4. From the latitudes of ITCZ axes and precipitation averaged over 160°E–160°W, positive (negative) SPOD events force a northward (southward) shift in the ITCZ in boreal winter (DJF), while the position moves in the opposite direction in boreal summer (JJA). In addition, ENSO can obviously enhance the influence of SPOD on the ITCZ. It is evident that there is a wider range of northward (southward) shift in the ITCZ under both positive SPOD and El Niño (negative SPOD and La Niña) conditions during DJF. Similar to DJF, both positive SPOD and El Niño (negative SPOD and La Niña) events still cause the ITCZ to move toward (away from) the equator during JJA, except that the magnitude of the movement in JJA is less than that in DJF. Precipitation averaged over 160°E–160°W is at a maximum under both positive SPOD and El Niño events, which have the greatest influence on ITCZ intensity, followed by both negative SPOD and La Niña in DJF, while in JJA, ITCZ intensity is most sensitive to negative SPOD events. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates the optimal observational array for improving the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) prediction by exploring sensitive areas for target observations of two types of El Niño events in the whole Pacific. A target observation method based on the particle filter and pre-industrial control runs from six coupled model outputs in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) experiments are used to quantify the relative importance of the initial accuracy of sea surface temperature (SST) in different Pacific areas. The initial accuracy of the tropical Pacific, subtropical Pacific, and extratropical Pacific can all exert influences on both types of El Niño predictions. The relative importance of different areas changes along with different lead times of predictions. Tropical Pacific observations are crucial for decreasing the root mean square error of predictions of all lead times. Subtropical and extratropical observations play an important role in decreasing the prediction uncertainty, especially when the prediction is made before and throughout the boreal spring. To consider different El Niño types and different start months for predictions, a quantitative frequency method based on frequency distribution is applied to determine the optimal observations of ENSO predictions. The final optimal observational array contains 31 grid points, including 21 grid points in the equatorial Pacific and 10 grid points in the North Pacific, suggesting the importance of the initial SST conditions for ENSO predictions not only in the tropical Pacific but also in the area outside the tropics. Furthermore, the predictions made by assimilating SST in sensitive areas have better prediction skills in the verification experiment, which can indicate the validity of the optimal observational array designed in this study. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Despite the emerging influence of anthropogenic climate change on the global water cycle, at regional scales the combination of observational uncertainty, large internal variability, and modeling uncertainty undermine robust statements regarding the human influence on precipitation. Here, we use output from global climate models in a perfect-data sense to develop a framework for conducting regional detection and attribution (D&A) for precipitation, starting with the contiguous United States (CONUS) where observational uncertainty is lower than in other regions. Our unified approach can simultaneously detect systematic trends in mean and extreme precipitation, attribute trends to anthropogenic forcings, compute the effects of forcings as a function of time, and map the effects of individual forcings. Model output is used to conduct a set of tests that yield a parsimonious representation for characterizing seasonal precipitation over the CONUS for the historical record (1900 to present day), which ensures our D&A is insensitive to structural uncertainty. Our framework is developed using synthetic data in a Pearl-causal perspective wherein causality can be identified using intervention-based simulations. While the hypothesis-based framework and accompanying generalized D&A formula we develop should be widely applicable, we include a strong caution that the hypothesis-guided simplification of the formula for the historical climatic record of CONUS as described in this paper will likely fail to hold in other geographic regions and under future warming. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Observations show that the seasonal cycle of precipitation in parts of southern Mexico and Central America exhibits a bimodal signal, known as the Midsummer drought (MSD), but there is no consensus on which processes are most relevant for the two-peak structure of the rainy season. This paper evaluates three hypotheses that could explain the MSD: the SST cloud-radiative feedback, the solar declination angle and the Caribbean Low-Level Jet (CLLJ) moisture transport hypotheses. Model experiments produced by the Met Office Hadley Centre (MOHC) for CMIP6 as well as ERA5 reanalysis data are used to critically assess the predictions of each hypothesis. The simulations capture the double peak signal of precipitation well and reasonably simulate the spatial and temporal variations of the MSD and other relevant climate features such as the CLLJ. Evidence from our analysis suggests that the Eastern Pacific SSTs do not increase in late summer in ERA5 data and only slightly increase in the simulations. More importantly, the Eastern Pacific SST variability in ERA5 and in the model experiments cannot explain the differences in the seasonality of precipitation. The net shortwave radiation at the surface shows a two-peak seasonal cycle; however, this behaviour appears to result from a strong anti-correlation of the incoming shortwave and convective activity due to cloud radiative-effects. There was no evidence found by this study of a causal link in which absorption of shortwave energy forces precipitation variations, as suggested by the solar declination angle hypothesis. The moisture convergence, CLLJ and the precipitable water vapor variations best explain the characteristics of the observed and simulated MSD, particularly for the onset of the MSD. The diagnosed variations of moisture convergence, which are synchronous with the timing of the MSD, point to a dynamic mechanism in which the low-level inflow from the Caribbean is more important for the MSD than other radiative mechanisms. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In early summer 2020, eastern China was hit by record-breaking Meiyu rainfall. The anomalous western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) played a crucial role in this event. This paper exposes the abnormal features of the WPSH and its related vertical circulations and reveals its dynamical causes in this period, from the perspective of the three-pattern decomposition of global atmospheric circulation (3P-DGAC). Analyzing the anomalous spatial patterns of the three stream functions R, H, and W of the horizontal, meridional, and zonal circulations defined by the 3P-DGAC, we discovered that the WPSH described by R at 850 hPa was intensified and westward from the horizontal circulation. For the vertical circulations, the local meridional circulation along East Asia expressed by H manifested an abnormal downdraft at 20° N, which was beneficial to strengthening the WPSH. The zonal circulation in the tropical Pacific represented by W was anomalously far to the west, which was related to the westward extension of the WPSH. Then, to uncover the causes of the anomalous WPSH from the dynamics, we used the vorticity equation based on the 3P-DGAC and found that the negative relative vorticity advection anomaly over the western Pacific played a key role in this event. Due to the positive sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly and enhanced convection over the Maritime Continent (MC), local vertical circulations at low latitudes were significantly activated. The intense local meridional circulation along East Asia carried the relative vorticity from the MC to the western Pacific and strengthened the WPSH. The ascending branch of the zonal circulation in the tropical Pacific moved westward, which may favor the westward extension of the WPSH. This study represents a promising step in revealing the three-dimensional (3D) structure and internal dynamics of anomalous WPSH. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents the first multi-model ensemble of 10-year, "convection-permitting" kilometer-scale regional climate model (RCM) scenario simulations downscaled from selected CMIP5 GCM projections for historical and end of century time slices. The technique is to first downscale the CMIP5 GCM projections to an intermediate 12–15 km resolution grid using RCMs, and then use these fields to downscale further to the kilometer scale. The aim of the paper is to provide an overview of the representation of the precipitation characteristics and their projected changes over the greater Alpine domain within a Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment Flagship Pilot Study and the European Climate Prediction system project, tasked with investigating convective processes at the kilometer scale. An ensemble of 12 simulations performed by different research groups around Europe is analyzed. The simulations are evaluated through comparison with high resolution observations while the complementary ensemble of 12 km resolution driving models is used as a benchmark to evaluate the added value of the convection-permitting ensemble. The results show that the kilometer-scale ensemble is able to improve the representation of fine scale details of mean daily, wet-day/hour frequency, wet-day/hour intensity and heavy precipitation on a seasonal scale, reducing uncertainty over some regions. It also improves the representation of the summer diurnal cycle, showing more realistic onset and peak of convection. The kilometer-scale ensemble refines and enhances the projected patterns of change from the coarser resolution simulations and even modifies the sign of the precipitation intensity change and heavy precipitation over some regions. The convection permitting simulations also show larger changes for all indices over the diurnal cycle, also suggesting a change in the duration of convection over some regions. A larger positive change of frequency of heavy to severe precipitation is found. The results are encouraging towards the use of convection-permitting model ensembles to produce robust assessments of the local impacts of future climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper provides a quantitative assessment of large-scale features in a perturbed parameter ensemble (PPE) of Met Office Unified Model HadGEM-GC3.05 in coupled global historical and future simulations. The main motivation for the simulations is to provide a major component of the UK Climate Projections 2018 (UKCP18), but they will also be used to make worldwide projections and inform future model development. Initially, a 25-member PPE, with 25 different parameter combinations, was simulated. Five members were subsequently dropped because either their simulated climate was unrealistically cool by 1970 or they suffered from numerical instabilities. The remaining 20 members were evaluated after completing the historical phase (1900–2005) against 13 separately selected Climate Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models, and five more members were dropped. The final product is a combined projection system of 15 PPE members and 13 CMIP5 models, which has a number of benefits. In particular, the range of outcomes available from the combined set of 28 is often larger than from either of the two constituent ensembles, thus providing users with a more complete picture of plausible impacts. Here we mainly describe the evaluation process of the 20 PPE members. We evaluate biases in a number of important properties of the global coupled system, including assessment of climatological averages, coupled modes of internal variability and historical and future changes. The parameter combinations yielded plausible yet diverse atmosphere and ocean model behaviours. The range of global temperature changes is narrow, largely driven by use of different CO2 pathways. The range of global warming is seemingly not linked to range of feedbacks estimated from atmosphere-only runs, though we caution that the range of the latter is narrow relative to CMIP5, and therefore this result is not unexpected. This is the second of two papers describing the generation of the PPE for UKCP18 projections. Part 1 (Sexton et al. 2021) describes the selection of 25 parameter combinations of 47 atmosphere and land surface parameters, using a set of cheap atmosphere-only runs at a coarser resolution from nearly 3000 samples of parameter space. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Most of the rainfall in southern Australia is associated with cyclones, cold fronts, and thunderstorms, and cases when these weather systems co-occur are particularly likely to cause extreme rainfall. Rainfall declines in some parts of southern Australia during the cool half of the year in recent decades have previously been attributed to decreases in the rainfall from fronts and/or cyclones, while thunderstorm-related rainfall has been observed to increase, particularly in the warm half of the year. However, the co-occurrence of these systems, particularly the co-occurrence of cyclones or fronts with thunderstorms, can be very important for rainfall in some areas, particularly heavy rainfall, and changes in the frequency of these combined weather systems have not been previously assessed. In this paper we show that the majority of the observed cool season rainfall decline between 1979–1996 and 1997–2015 in southeast Australia is associated with a decrease in the frequency of fronts and cyclones that produce rainfall, while there has simultaneously been an increase in the frequency of cold fronts and thunderstorms that do not produce rainfall in some regions. Thunderstorm rainfall has increased in much of southern Australia, particularly during the warm half of the year, including an increase in rainfall where a thunderstorm environment occurs at the same time as a cyclone or front. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Characteristic adjustment time scale τ is an important parameter in convective parameterization scheme. In this paper, we propose a dynamic calculation formula of τ in the Zhang–McFarlane scheme based on convective available potential energy (CAPE) in order to improve the simulation of precipitation. The performance of using the new formula is tested and evaluated using the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM5) for numerical experiments. The results indicate that the root mean square errors of mean precipitation amount over the Northern Hemisphere eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, the central Indo-Pacific Warm Pool, the Tibetan Plateau, and northern South America are reduced by 20.15, 16.40, 12.56, and 6.45% in summer, respectively, after a dynamic τ is adopted. The dynamically computed τ improves the Pacific Walker circulation by strengthening the western ascending and eastern descending, and increases the intensity of deep convective precipitation in tropical areas by at least 1 mm/day. Dynamic τ also increases the frequency of large deep convective precipitation in the equatorial Pacific by almost 50%, and decreases the frequency of light deep convective precipitation in many other regions. The dynamic τ has positive effects in the areas with large CAPE and spatiotemporal variability, and also leads to an increase in deep convective precipitation and a significant decrease in large-scale precipitation over high-altitude regions of windward slopes. Therefore, the generation of exaggerated precipitation in the highlands is reduced in the CAM5. Overall, the dynamic calculation of characteristic adjustment time scale can improve precipitation simulation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Air temperature variability and prediction are important considering the potential implications on human health, water resource management, agriculture and land-atmosphere interaction. In this paper, we investigate the delayed influence of El Niño on spring Surface Air Temperature (SAT) variability over India using observations and assess its predictability in coupled climate models. Analysis suggests that El Niño, at its decaying phase, exerts a strong influence on the spring SAT over Southern Peninsular India (SPI). This warming is mainly induced by an anomalous anticyclone, which extends from the Western North Pacific (WNP) region to the SPI. The anomalous anticyclone-induced downdraft reduces the cloud cover and increases incoming shortwave radiation at surface, which in turn causes a dry atmospheric column and dry soil moisture over this region. As a result of this decreased soil moisture, latent heat flux into atmosphere reduces and enhances sensible heat transfer, further contributing to dry soil moisture. Both dry soil moisture and anomalous anticyclone contributes to enhanced SAT over SPI region. It is found that 6 years out of the top 10 warmest years over the SPI region correspond to the decaying phase of El Niño, suggesting the importance of the present study. It is also found that the intense SAT warming over SPI aids in increasing frequencies of Discomfort Index hours (exceeding 28 and 30 °C in a day) and the Universal Thermal Climate Index during El Niño decaying spring years. Further, we have examined the predictability of the spring SAT during decaying El Niño years based on the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Climate Center (APCC) models. It is noted that most of the APCC models reasonably predicted the spatial distribution of warm SAT over India during the El Niño decaying spring season at 1 and 3 month lead. This study highlights the predictability of spring SAT a season in advance over India, which would help in planning better adaptation and mitigation strategies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As one of the most important greenhouse gases, water vapor in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UTLS) has a significant impact on the global earth-atmosphere system. The Tibetan Plateau (TP) is an important high terrain which exerts a profound impact on the change of weather and climate, and mass exchange. Tropopause folds occur frequently over the TP due to the impact of the subtropical westerly jet, which affects water vapor transport between the stratosphere and the troposphere. In this paper, the spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of tropopause folds over the TP are examined by applying an improved three-dimensional (3D) labeling algorithm to the ERA5 reanalysis data (1979 to 2019). The effects of different fold depths in various regions over the TP on the variations of UTLS water vapor are further studied. The results of a case study (25 February 2008) suggest that there is a good continuity in identification of the fold depth for the same fold event using the improved 3D labeling algorithm. The fold depth and height are consistent with the results of radiosonde data and ERA5 reanalysis data. The fold frequency over the TP shows an increasing trend in the last 41 years, with slightly lower frequency of medium folds than that of shallow folds, and lowest frequency of deep folds. There is increasing water vapor in the UTLS over the TP due to tropopause folds. The results indicate that tropopause folds enhance the horizontal divergence of water vapor in the UTLS and increase the vertical water vapor flux in the UTLS region. The folding over the plateau leads to increased moisture in the UTLS. It is argued that vertical velocity anomalies in the vicinity of the fold and subgrid perturbations have a significant impact on the increase of UTLS water vapor over the TP. The results of this work provide a scientific basis for a better understanding of the stratosphere-troposphere exchanges due to tropopause folds over the TP. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]