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On a hemispheric scale, it is now well established that stratospheric ozone depletion has been the principal driver of externally forced atmospheric circulation changes south of the Equator in the last decades of the 20th Century. The impact of ozone depletion has been felt over the entire hemisphere, as reflected in the poleward drift of the midlatitude jet, the southward expansion of the summertime Hadley cell and accompanying precipitation trends deep into the subtropics. On a regional scale, however, surface impacts directly attributable to ozone depletion have yet to be identified. In this paper we focus on South Eastern South America (SESA), a region that has exhibited one of the largest wetting trends during the 20th Century. We study the impact of ozone depletion on SESA precipitation using output from 6 different climate models, spanning a wide range of complexity. In all cases we contrast pairs of model integrations with and without ozone depletion, but with all other forcings identically specified. This allows for unambiguous attribution of the computed precipitation trends. All 6 climate models consistently reveal that stratospheric ozone depletion results in a significant wetting of SESA over the period 1960-1999. Taken as a whole, these model results strongly suggest that the impact of ozone depletion on SESA precipitation has been as large as, and quite possibly larger than, the one caused by increasing greenhouse gases over the same period. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Based on the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data, the COBE sea surface temperature (SST) and the GPCC precipitation, the influences of El Niño-South Oscillation (ENSO) on the variability of winter rainfall anomalies in Southeast China is analyzed under the synergistic effect of Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). Winter precipitation and atmospheric circulation of the years of IOD concurring with ENSO are compared with single IOD or ENSO, to reveal the mechanism of synergistic effects on the variability of winter rainfall anomalies in Southeast China. The results show that the correlation between IOD/ENSO and the winter precipitation in Southeast China has increased since 1980s. These correlations were significant in years of IOD and ENSO co-occurrence compared to years of IOD or ENSO only, which is mainly due to the lagged atmospheric thermal and dynamic responses to an IOD forcing in synergy with ENSO. The positive IOD (PIOD) events can trigger and modify the anticyclone to the east of India, which transports moisture from the tropical Indian Ocean to Southeast China. In addition, El Niño events can strengthen the abnormal anticyclone over Philippines in winter, which is conducive to maintain the water vapor channel from the tropical western Pacific to Southeast China. Information flow analysis shows that the causalities between IOD and ENSO were enhanced after 1980s, causing the significant increase in the frequency of winter abnormal precipitation in the years of IOD and ENSO concurrence. Furthermore, the higher frequency of PIOD with El Niño (compared to negative IOD with La Niña) attained a ratio of 2:1 after the 1980s, enhancing the Southeast China winter precipitation events associated with IOD and ENSO and the generation of interdecadal variability. This study is helpful to understand the mechanisms of winter precipitation changes in Southeast China, and to improve the forecast accuracy of winter extreme precipitation events. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As evidence of climate change strengthens, knowledge of its regional implications becomes an urgent need for decision making. Current understanding of regional precipitation changes is substantially limited by our understanding of the atmospheric circulation response to climate change, which to a high degree remains uncertain. This uncertainty is reflected in the wide spread in atmospheric circulation changes projected in multimodel ensembles, which cannot be directly interpreted in a probabilistic sense. The uncertainty can instead be represented by studying a discrete set of physically plausible storylines of atmospheric circulation changes. By mining CMIP5 model output, here we take this broader perspective and develop storylines for Southern Hemisphere (SH) midlatitude circulation changes, conditioned on the degree of global-mean warming, based on the climate responses of two remote drivers: the enhanced warming of the tropical upper troposphere and the strengthening of the stratospheric polar vortex. For the three continental domains in the SH, we analyse the precipitation changes under each storyline. To allow comparison with previous studies, we also link both circulation and precipitation changes with those of the Southern Annular Mode. Our results show that the response to tropical warming leads to a strengthening of the midlatitude westerly winds, whilst the response to a delayed breakdown (for DJF) or strengthening (for JJA) of the stratospheric vortex leads to a poleward shift of the westerly winds and the storm tracks. However, the circulation response is not zonally symmetric and the regional precipitation storylines for South America, South Africa, South of Australia and New Zealand exhibit quite specific dependencies on the two remote drivers, which are not well represented by changes in the Southern Annular Mode. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Summer 2012 was very wet in northern Europe, and unusually dry and hot in southern Europe. We use multiple approaches to determine whether anthropogenic forcing made the extreme European summer of 2012 more likely. Using a number of observation- and model-based methods, we find that there was an anthropogenic contribution to the extremes in southern Europe, with a qualitative consensus across all methodologies. There was a consensus across the methodologies that there has been a significant increase in the risk of hot summers in southern Europe with climate change. Most approaches also suggested a slight drying, but none of the results were statistically significant. The unusually wet summer in northern Europe was made more likely by the observed atmospheric circulation pattern in 2012, but no evidence was found for a long-term trend in circulation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

East African hydroclimate exhibits considerable variability across a range of timescales, with implications for its population that depends on the region’s two rainy seasons. Recent work demonstrated that current state-of-the-art climate models consistently underestimate the long rains in boreal spring over the Horn of Africa while overestimating the short rains in autumn. This inability to represent the seasonal cycle makes it problematic for climate models to project changes in East African precipitation. Here we consider whether this bias also has implications for understanding interannual and decadal variability in the East African long and short rains. Using a consistent framework with an unforced multi-century global coupled climate model simulation, the role of Indo-Pacific variability for East African rainfall is compared across timescales and related to observations. The dominant driver of East African rainfall anomalies critically depends on the timescale under consideration: Interannual variations in East African hydroclimate coincide with significant sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies across the Indo-Pacific, including those associated with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the eastern Pacific, and are linked to changes in the Walker circulation, regional winds and vertical velocities over East Africa. Prolonged drought/pluvial periods in contrast exhibit anomalous SST predominantly in the Indian Ocean and Indo-Pacific warm pool (IPWP) region, while eastern Pacific anomalies are insignificant. We assessed dominant frequencies in Indo-Pacific SST and found the eastern equatorial Pacific dominated by higher-frequency variability in the ENSO band, while the tropical Indian Ocean and IPWP exhibit lower-frequency variability beyond 10 years. This is consistent with the different contribution to regional precipitation anomalies for the eastern Pacific versus Indian Ocean and IPWP on interannual and decadal timescales, respectively. In the model, the dominant low-frequency signal seen in the observations in the Indo-Pacific is not well-represented as it instead exhibits overly strong variability on subdecadal timescales. The overly strong ENSO-teleconnection likely contributes to the overestimated role of the short rains in the seasonal cycle in the model compared to observations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This work documents long-term changes in the Southern Hemisphere circulation in the austral spring-summer season in the Coupled Intercomparison Project Phase 5 models, showing that those changes are larger in magnitude and closer to ERA-Interim and other reanalyses if models include a dynamical representation of the stratosphere. Specifically, models with a high-top and included dynamical and—in some cases—chemical feedbacks within the stratosphere better simulate the lower stratospheric cooling observed over 1979-2001 and strongly driven by ozone depletion, when compared to the other models. This occurs because high-top models can fully capture the stratospheric large scale circulation response to the ozone-induced cooling. Interestingly, this difference is also found at the surface for the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) changes, even though all model categories tend to underestimate SAM trends over those decades. In this analysis, models including a proper dynamical stratosphere are more sensitive to lower stratospheric cooling in their tropospheric circulation response. After a brief discussion of two RCP scenarios, our study confirms that at least for large changes in the extratropical regions, stratospheric changes induced by external forcing have to be properly simulated, as they are important drivers of tropospheric climate variations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The relationship between the large-scale circulation dynamics and regional precipitation regime in the Tibetan Plateau (TP) has so far not been well understood. In this study, we classify the circulation types using the self-organizing maps based on the daily field of 500 hPa geopotential height and link them to the precipitation climatology in the eastern and central TP. By virtue of an objective determining method, 18 circulation types are quantified. The results show that the large amount of precipitation in summer is closely related to the circulation types in which the enhanced and northward shifted subtropical high (SH) over the northwest Pacific and the obvious cyclconic circulation anomaly over the Bay of Bengal are helpful for the Indian summer monsoon and East Asian summer monsoon to take abundant low-latitude moisture to the eastern and southern TP. On the contrary, the dry winter in the central and eastern Tibet corresponds to the circulation types with divergence over the central and eastern TP and the water vapor transportations of East Asian winter monsoon and mid-latitude westerly are very weak. Some circulation types are associated with some well-known circulation patterns/monsoons influencing the TP (e.g. East Atlantic Pattern, El Niño Southern Oscillation, Indian Summer Monsoon and the mid-latitude westerly), and exhibit an overall good potential for explaining the variability of regional seasonal precipitation. Moreover, the climate shift signals in the late 1970s over the eastern Pacific/North Pacific Oceans could also be reflected by both the variability of some circulation types and their correspondingly composite precipitations. This study extends our understandings for the large-scale atmospheric dynamics and their linkages with regional precipitation and is beneficial for the climate change projection and related adaptation activities in the highest and largest plateau in the world. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A new ring-width record from the eastern flanks of the Eastern Sakhalin Range, Sakhalin Island, Russian Federation is significantly correlated with summer temperatures and allows for the reconstruction of May-July average temperatures for the past 400 years. The reconstruction explains 37 % of the variance in May-July temperatures and shows a strong cooling between 1680 and 1710 CE coincident with the Maunder solar minimum and in agreement with other independent tree-ring reconstructions and glacier histories from sites along the margin of the Sea of Okhotsk. While recent decades are among the warmest in the record they are rivaled by periods centered on 1650 and 1850 CE. Warming in the observational record and the reconstruction is consistent with the influence of the declining strength of the Siberian High and loss of sea ice over the same interval. Decadal (17-25 year) variability persists throughout the reconstruction. At interannual timescales the Sakhalin reconstruction is most strongly correlated with local and central North Pacific sea surface temperatures over the past 120 years, whereas at decadal timescales there is an additional association with Asian land surface temperatures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An ensemble of future climate projections performed with the regional climate model RegCM4 is used to assess changes in inter-annual variability of precipitation over Southern Mexico and Central America (SMECAM). Two different Global Climate Models (GCMs) from the coupled model intercomparison project phase 5 are used to provide boundary conditions for two different RegCM4 configurations. This results in four regional climate projections extending from 1970 to 2100 for the greenhouse gas representative concentration pathway RCP8.5. The precipitation variability over the SMECAM region and its dependence on the gradient between Atlantic and Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies are verified by reproducing SST anomaly patterns during wettest and driest years similar to those seen in observational datasets. RegCM4 does a comparably better job than the driving GCMs. This strong relationship between precipitation and SST anomalies does not appear to change substantially under future climate conditions. For the rainy season, June to September, we find a future change in inter-annual variability of precipitation towards a much greater occurrence of very dry seasons over the SMECAM region, with this change being more pronounced in the regional than in the global model projections. A greater warming of the Tropical Northeastern Pacific (TNP) compared to the Tropical North Atlantic (TNA), which causes stronger wind fluxes from the TNA to the TNP through the Caribbean Low Level Jet, is identified as the main process responsible for these drier conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study evaluates model fidelity in simulating relationships between seasonally averaged precipitation, cloud fraction and surface insolation from the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Project (NARCCAP) hindcast using observational data from ground stations and satellites. Model fidelity is measured in terms of the temporal correlation coefficients between these three variables and the similarity between the observed and simulated joint probability distribution functions (JPDFs) in 14 subregions over the conterminous United States. Observations exhibit strong negative correlations between precipitation/cloud fraction and surface insolation for all seasons, whereas the relationship between precipitation and cloud fraction varies according to regions and seasons. The skill in capturing these observed relationships varies widely among the NARCCAP regional climate models, especially in the Midwest and Southeast coast regions where observations show weak (or even negative) correlations between precipitation and cloud fraction in winter due to frequent non-precipitating stratiform clouds. Quantitative comparison of univariate and JPDFs indicates that model performance varies markedly between regions as well as seasons. This study also shows that comparison of JPDFs is useful for summarizing the performance of and highlighting problems with some models in simulating cloud fraction and surface insolation. Our quantitative metric may be useful in improving climate models by highlighting shortcomings in the formulations related with the physical processes involved in precipitation, clouds and radiation or other multivariate processes in the climate system. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this work, authors examine the variabilities of precipitation and surface air temperature (T2m) in Northeast China during 1948-2012, and their global connection, as well as the predictability. It is noted that both the precipitation and T2m variations in Northeast China are dominated by interannual and higher frequency variations. However, on interdecadal time scales, T2m is shifted significantly from below normal to above normal around 1987/1988. Statistically, the seasonal mean precipitation and T2m are largely driven by local internal atmospheric variability rather than remote forcing. For the precipitation variation, circulation anomalies in the low latitudes play a more important role in spring and summer than in autumn and winter. For T2m variations, the associated sea surface pressure (SLP) and 850-hPa wind (uv850) anomalies are similar for all seasons in high latitudes with significantly negative correlations for SLP and westerly wind anomaly for uv850, suggesting that a strong zonal circulation in the high latitudes favors warming in Northeast China. The predictability of precipitation and T2m in Northeast China is assessed by using the Atmospheric Model Inter-comparison Project type experiments which are forced by observed sea surface temperature (SST) and time-evolving greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations. Results suggest that T2m has slightly higher predictability than precipitation in Northeast China. To some extent, the model simulates the interdecadal shift of T2m around 1987/1988, implying a possible connection between SST (and/or GHG forcing) and surface air temperature variation in Northeast China on interdecadal time scales. Nevertheless, the precipitation and T2m variations are mainly determined by the unpredictable components which are caused by the atmospheric internal dynamic processes, suggesting low predictability for the climate variation in Northeast China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Intraseasonal (IS) variability in South America is analyzed during the cold season using 10-90 day bandpass filtered OLR anomalies (FOLR). IS variability explains a large percentage of variance with maximum values over Paraguay, northeastern Argentina, and southern Brazil. The leading pattern of FOLR, as isolated from an EOF analysis, (Cold Season IS pattern, CSIS), is characterized by a monopole centered over southeastern South America (SESA) with a northwest-southeast orientation. CSIS induces a large modulation on daily precipitation anomalies, especially on both wet spells and daily precipitation extremes, which are favored during positive (wet) CSIS phases. Large-Scale OLR anomalies over the tropical Indian and west Pacific Oceans associated with CSIS exhibit eastward propagation along tropical latitudes. In addition, circulation anomalies in the Southern Hemisphere reveal the presence of an anticyclonic anomaly over Antarctica with opposite-sign anomalies in middle latitudes 10 days before CSIS is maximum as well as evidence of Rossby wave-like patterns. Positive precipitation anomalies in SESA are favored during wet CSIS phases by the intensification of a cyclonic anomaly located further south, which is discernible over the southeastern Pacific for at least 14 days before CSIS peaks. The cyclonic anomaly evolution is accompanied by the intensification of an upstream anticyclonic anomaly, which remains quasi-stationary near the Antarctica Peninsula before the CSIS peak. We speculate that the stationary behavior of the anticyclonic center is favored by a hemispheric circulation anomaly pattern resembling that associated with a negative southern annular mode phase and a wavenumber 3-4 pattern at middle latitudes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this study, the climate mean, variability, and dominant patterns of the Northern Hemisphere wintertime mean 200 hPa geopotential height (Z200) in a CMIP and a set of AMIP simulations from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System Version 2 (CFSv2) are analyzed and compared with the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis. For the climate mean, it is found that a component of the bias in stationary waves characterized with wave trains emanating from the tropics into both the hemispheres can be attributed to the precipitation deficit over the Maritime continent. The lack of latent heating associated with the precipitation deficit may have served as the forcing of the wave trains. For the variability of the seasonal mean, both the CMIP and AMIP successfully simulated the geographical locations of the major centers of action, but the simulated intensity was generally weaker than that in the reanalysis, particularly for the center over the Davis Strait-southern Greenland area. It is also noted that the simulated action center over Aleutian Islands was southeastward shifted to some extent. The shift was likely caused by the eastward extension of the Pacific jet. Differences also existed between the CMIP and the AMIP simulations, with the center of actions over the Aleutian Islands stronger in the AMIP and the center over the Davis Strait-southern Greenland area stronger in the CMIP simulation. In the mode analysis, the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) teleconnection pattern in each dataset was first removed from the data, and a rotated empirical orthogonal function (REOF) analysis was then applied to the residual. The purpose of this separation was to avoid possible mixing between the ENSO mode and those generated by the atmospheric internal dynamics. It was found that the simulated ENSO teleconnection patterns from both model runs well resembled that from the reanalysis, except for a small eastward shift. Based on the REOF modes of the residual data, six dominant modes of the reanalysis data had counterparts in each model simulation, though with different rankings in explained variance and some distortions in spatial structure. By evaluating the temporal coherency of the REOF modes between the reanalysis and the AMIP, it was found that the time series associated with the equatorially displaced North Atlantic Oscillation in the two datasets were significantly correlated, suggesting a potential predictability for this mode. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The uncertainties in the regional climate models (RCMs) are evaluated by analyzing the driving global data of ERA40 reanalysis and ECHAM5 general circulation models, and the downscaled data of two RCMs (RegCM4 and PRECIS) over South-Asia for the present day simulation (1971-2000) of South-Asian summer monsoon. The differences between the observational datasets over South-Asia are also analyzed. The spatial and the quantitative analysis over the selected climatic regions of South-Asia for the mean climate and the inter-annual variability of temperature, precipitation and circulation show that the RCMs have systematic biases which are independent from different driving datasets and seems to come from the physics parameterization of the RCMs. The spatial gradients and topographically-induced structure of climate are generally captured and simulated values are within a few degrees of the observed values. The biases in the RCMs are not consistent with the biases in the driving fields and the models show similar spatial patterns after downscaling different global datasets. The annual cycle of temperature and rainfall is well simulated by the RCMs, however the RCMs are not able to capture the inter-annual variability. ECHAM5 is also downscaled for the future (2071-2100) climate under A1B emission scenario. The climate change signal is consistent between ECHAM5 and RCMs. There is warming over all the regions of South-Asia associated with increasing greenhouse gas concentrations and the increase in summer mean surface air temperature by the end of the century ranges from 2.5 to 5 °C, with maximum warming over north western parts of the domain and 30 % increase in rainfall over north eastern India, Bangladesh and Myanmar. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study investigates the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) teleconnections to tropical Indian Ocean (TIO) and their relationship with the Indian summer monsoon in the coupled general circulation model climate forecast system (CFS). The model shows good skill in simulating the impact of El Niño over the Indian Oceanic rim during its decay phase (the summer following peak phase of El Niño). Summer surface circulation patterns during the developing phase of El Niño are more influenced by local Sea Surface Temperature (SST) anomalies in the model unlike in observations. Eastern TIO cooling similar to that of Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is a dominant model feature in summer. This anomalous SST pattern therefore is attributed to the tendency of the model to simulate more frequent IOD events. On the other hand, in the model baroclinic response to the diabatic heating anomalies induced by the El Niño related warm SSTs is weak, resulting in reduced zonal extension of the Rossby wave response. This is mostly due to weak eastern Pacific summer time SST anomalies in the model during the developing phase of El Niño as compared to observations. Both eastern TIO cooling and weak SST warming in El Niño region combined together undermine the ENSO teleconnections to the TIO and south Asia regions. The model is able to capture the spatial patterns of SST, circulation and precipitation well during the decay phase of El Niño over the Indo-western Pacific including the typical spring asymmetric mode and summer basin-wide warming in TIO. The model simulated El Niño decay one or two seasons later, resulting long persistent warm SST and circulation anomalies mainly over the southwest TIO. In response to the late decay of El Niño, Ekman pumping shows two maxima over the southern TIO. In conjunction with this unrealistic Ekman pumping, westward propagating Rossby waves display two peaks, which play key role in the long-persistence of the TIO warming in the model (for more than a season after summer). This study strongly supports the need of simulating the correct onset and decay phases of El Niño/La Niña for capturing the realistic ENSO teleconnections. These results have strong implications for the forecasting of Indian summer monsoon as this model is currently being adopted as an operational model in India. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Precipitation changes over the Indo-Pacific during El Niño events are studied using an Atmospheric General Circulation Model forced with sea-surface temperature (SST) anomalies and changes in atmospheric CO concentrations. Linear increases in the amplitude of the El Niño SST anomaly pattern trigger nonlinear changes in precipitation amounts, resulting in shifts in the location and orientation of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and the South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ). In particular, the maximum precipitation anomaly along the ITCZ and SPCZ shifts eastwards, the ITCZ shifts south towards the equator, and the SPCZ becomes more zonal. Precipitation in the equatorial Pacific also increases nonlinearly. The effect of increasing CO levels and warming SSTs is also investigated. Global warming generally enhances the tropical Pacific precipitation response to El Niño. The precipitation response to El Niño is found to be dominated by changes in the atmospheric mean circulation dynamics, whereas the response to global warming is a balance between dynamic and thermodynamic changes. While the dependence of projected climate change impacts on seasonal variability is well-established, this study reveals that the impact of global warming on Pacific precipitation also depends strongly on the magnitude of the El Niño event. The magnitude and structure of the precipitation changes are also sensitive to the spatial structure of the global warming SST pattern. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Large parts of western and central Europe face a 20-50 % future reduction in snowfall on Hellmann days (days with daily-mean temperatures below freezing). This strong reduction occurs in addition to the expected 75 % decrease of the number of Hellmann days near the end of the twenty first century. The result is insensitive to the exact freezing-level threshold, but is in sharp contrast with the winter daily precipitation, which increases under most global warming scenarios. Not only climate model simulations show this. Observational records also reveal that probabilities for precipitation on Hellmann days have been larger in the past. The future reduction is a consequence of the freezing-level threshold becoming a more extreme quantile of the temperature distribution in the future. Only certain circulation types permit these quantiles to be reached, and it is shown that these have intrinsically low precipitation probability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this study, an ensemble of four multi-year climate simulations is performed with the regional climate model ALADIN to evaluate its ability to simulate the climate over North America in the CORDEX framework. The simulations differ in their driving fields (ERA-40 or ERA-Interim) and the nudging technique (with or without large-scale nudging). The validation of the simulated 2-m temperature and precipitation with observationally-based gridded data sets shows that ALADIN performs similarly to other regional climate models that are commonly used over North America. Large-scale nudging improves the temporal correlation of the atmospheric circulation between ALADIN and its driving field, and also reduces the warm and dry summer biases in central North America. The differences between the simulations driven with different reanalyses are small and are likely related to the regional climate model's induced internal variability. In general, the impact of different driving fields on ALADIN is smaller than that of large-scale nudging. The analysis of the multi-year simulations over the prairie and the east taiga indicates that the ALADIN 2-m temperature and precipitation interannual variability is similar or larger than that observed. Finally, a comparison of the simulations with observations for the summer 1993 shows that ALADIN underestimates the flood in central North America mainly due to its systematic dry bias in this region. Overall, the results indicate that ALADIN can produce a valuable contribution to CORDEX over North America. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study evaluates the UCLA-ETA regional model's dynamic downscaling ability to improve the National Center for Environmental Prediction Climate Forecast System (NCEP CFS), winter season predictions over the contiguous United States (US). Spatial distributions and temporal variations of seasonal and monthly precipitation are the main focus. A multi-member ensemble means of 22 winters from 1982 through 2004 are included in the study. CFS over-predicts the precipitation in eastern and western US by as much as 45 and 90 % on average compared to observations, respectively. Dynamic downscaling improves the precipitation hindcasts across the domain, except in the southern States, by substantially reducing the excessive precipitation produced by the CFS. Average precipitation root-mean-square error for CFS and UCLA-ETA are 1.5 and 0.9 mm day, respectively. In addition, downscaling improves the simulation of spatial distribution of snow water equivalent and land surface heat fluxes. Despite these large improvements, the UCLA-ETA's ability to improve the inter-annual and intra-seasonal precipitation variability is not clear, probably because of the imposed CFS' lateral boundary conditions. Preliminary analysis of the cause for the large precipitation differences between the models reveals that the CFS appears to underestimate the moisture flux convergence despite producing excessive precipitation amounts. Additionally, the comparison of modeled monthly surface sensible and latent heat fluxes with Global Land Data Assimilation System land data set shows that the CFS incorrectly partitioned most of surface energy into evaporation, unlike the UCLA-ETA. These findings suggest that the downscaling improvements are mostly due to a better representation of land-surface processes by the UCLA-ETA. Sensitivity tests also reveal that higher-resolution topography only played a secondary role in the dynamic downscaling improvement. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Global warming exerts a lengthening effect on the growing season, with observational evidences emerging from different regions over the world. However, the difficulty for a global overview of this effect for the last century arises from limited availability of the long-term daily observations. In this study, we find a good linear relationship between the start (end) date of local growing season (LGS) and the monthly mean temperature in April (October) using the global gridded daily temperature dataset for 1960-1999. Using homogenized daily temperature records from nine stations where the time series go back to the beginning of the twentieth century, we find that the rate of change in the start (end) date of the LGS for per degree warming in April (October) mean temperature keeps nearly constant throughout the time. This enables us to study LGS changes during the last century using global gridded monthly mean temperature data. The results show that during the period 1901-2009, averaged over the observation areas, the LGS length has increased by a rate of 0.89 days decade, mainly due to an earlier start (−0.58 days decade). This is smaller than those estimates for the late half of the twentieth century, because of multidecadal climate variability (MDV). A MDV component of the LGS index series is extracted by using Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition method. The MDV exhibits significant positive correlation with the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO) over most of the Northern Hemisphere lands, but negative in parts of North America and Western Asia for start date of LGS. These are explained by analyzing differences in atmospheric circulation expressed by sea level pressure departures between the warm and cool phases of AMO. It is suggested that MDV in association with AMO accelerates the lengthening of LGS in Northern Hemisphere by 53 % for the period 1980-2009. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding the response of the South Asian monsoon (SAM) system to global climate change is an interesting scientific problem that has enormous implications from the societal viewpoint. While the CMIP3 projections of future changes in monsoon precipitation used in the IPCC AR4 show major uncertainties, there is a growing recognition that the rapid increase of moisture in a warming climate can potentially enhance the stability of the large-scale tropical circulations. In this work, the authors have examined the stability of the SAM circulation based on diagnostic analysis of climate datasets over the past half century; and addressed the issue of likely future changes in the SAM in response to global warming using simulations from an ultra-high resolution (20 km) global climate model. Additional sensitivity experiments using a simplified atmospheric model have been presented to supplement the overall findings. The results here suggest that the intensity of the boreal summer monsoon overturning circulation and the associated southwesterly monsoon flow have significantly weakened during the past 50-years. The weakening trend of the monsoon circulation is further corroborated by a significant decrease in the frequency of moderate-to-heavy monsoon rainfall days and upward vertical velocities particularly over the narrow mountain ranges of the Western Ghats. Based on simulations from the 20-km ultra high-resolution model, it is argued that a stabilization (weakening) of the summer monsoon Hadley-type circulation in response to global warming can potentially lead to a weakened large-scale monsoon flow thereby resulting in weaker vertical velocities and reduced orographic precipitation over the narrow Western Ghat mountains by the end of the twenty-first century. Supplementary experiments using a simplified atmospheric model indicate a high sensitivity of the large-scale monsoon circulation to atmospheric stability in comparison with the effects of condensational heating. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

With the twentieth century analysis data (1901-2002) for atmospheric circulation, precipitation, Palmer drought severity index, and sea surface temperature (SST), we show that the Asian-Pacific Oscillation (APO) during boreal summer is a major mode of the earth climate variation linking to global atmospheric circulation and hydroclimate anomalies, especially the Northern Hemisphere (NH) summer land monsoon. Associated with a positive APO phase are the warm troposphere over the Eurasian land and the relatively cool troposphere over the North Pacific, the North Atlantic, and the Indian Ocean. Such an amplified land-ocean thermal contrast between the Eurasian land and its adjacent oceans signifies a stronger than normal NH summer monsoon, with the strengthened southerly or southwesterly monsoon prevailing over tropical Africa, South Asia, and East Asia. A positive APO implies an enhanced summer monsoon rainfall over all major NH land monsoon regions: West Africa, South Asia, East Asia, and Mexico. Thus, APO is a sensible measure of the NH land monsoon rainfall intensity. Meanwhile, reduced precipitation appears over the arid and semiarid regions of northern Africa, the Middle East, and West Asia, manifesting the monsoon-desert coupling. On the other hand, surrounded by the cool troposphere over the North Pacific and North Atlantic, the extratropical North America has weakened low-level continental low and upper-level ridge, hence a deficient summer rainfall. Corresponding to a high APO index, the African and South Asian monsoon regions are wet and cool, the East Asian monsoon region is wet and hot, and the extratropical North America is dry and hot. Wet and dry climates correspond to wet and dry soil conditions, respectively. The APO is also associated with significant variations of SST in the entire Pacific and the extratropical North Atlantic during boreal summer, which resembles the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation in SST. Of note is that the Pacific SST anomalies are not present throughout the year, rather, mainly occur in late spring, peak at late summer, and are nearly absent during boreal winter. The season-dependent APO-SST relationship and the origin of the APO remain elusive. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A number of transient climate runs simulating the last 120 kyr have been carried out using FAMOUS, a fast atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (AOGCM). This is the first time such experiments have been done with a full AOGCM, providing a three-dimensional simulation of both atmosphere and ocean over this period. Our simulation thus includes internally generated temporal variability over periods from days to millennia, and physical, detailed representations of important processes such as clouds and precipitation. Although the model is fast, computational restrictions mean that the rate of change of the forcings has been increased by a factor of 10, making each experiment 12 kyr long. Atmospheric greenhouse gases (GHGs), northern hemisphere ice sheets and variations in solar radiation arising from changes in the Earth's orbit are treated as forcing factors, and are applied either separately or combined in different experiments. The long-term temperature changes on Antarctica match well with reconstructions derived from ice-core data, as does variability on timescales longer than 10 kyr. Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) cooling on Greenland is reasonably well simulated, although our simulations, which lack ice-sheet meltwater forcing, do not reproduce the abrupt, millennial scale climate shifts seen in northern hemisphere climate proxies or their slower southern hemisphere counterparts. The spatial pattern of sea surface cooling at the LGM matches proxy reconstructions reasonably well. There is significant anti-correlated variability in the strengths of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) and the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) on timescales greater than 10 kyr in our experiments. We find that GHG forcing weakens the AMOC and strengthens the ACC, whilst the presence of northern hemisphere ice-sheets strengthens the AMOC and weakens the ACC. The structure of the AMOC at the LGM is found to be sensitive to the details of the ice-sheet reconstruction used. The precessional component of the orbital forcing induces ~20 kyr oscillations in the AMOC and ACC, whose amplitude is mediated by changes in the eccentricity of the Earth's orbit. These forcing influences combine, to first order, in a linear fashion to produce the mean climate and ocean variability seen in the run with all forcings. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study compares the impacts of El Niño Modoki and El Niño on precipitation over Korea during the boreal winters from 1954 to 2009. Precipitation in Korea tends to be equal to or greater than the normal level during an El Niño Modoki winter, whereas there is no significant change during an El Niño winter. Greater than normal precipitation during El Niño Modoki was also found over the lower reaches of the Yangtze River, China and much of southern Japan. The latitudes of these regions are 5-10° further north than in southern China, where precipitation increases during El Niño. The following two anomalous atmospheric circulations were found to be causes that led to different precipitation distributions over East Asia. First, an atmospheric wave train in the lower troposphere, which propagated from the central tropical Pacific (cyclonic) through the southern Philippine Sea (anticyclonic) to East Asia (cyclonic), reached the southern China and northern Philippine Sea during El Niño, whereas it reached Korea and southern Japan during El Niño Modoki. Second, an anomalous local meridional circulation, which consists of air sinking in the tropics, flowing poleward in the lower troposphere, and rising in the subtropics, developed between the southern Philippine Sea and northern Philippine Sea during El Niño. During El Niño Modoki, however, this circulation expanded further to the north and was formed between the southern Philippine Sea and regions of Korea and southern Japan. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A regional climate model, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model, is forced with increased atmospheric CO and anomalous SSTs and lateral boundary conditions derived from nine coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models to produce an ensemble set of nine future climate simulations for northern Africa at the end of the twenty-first century. A well validated control simulation, agreement among ensemble members, and a physical understanding of the future climate change enhance confidence in the predictions. The regional model ensembles produce consistent precipitation projections over much of northern tropical Africa. A moisture budget analysis is used to identify the circulation changes that support future precipitation anomalies. The projected midsummer drought over the Guinean Coast region is related partly to weakened monsoon flow. Since the rainfall maximum demonstrates a southward bias in the control simulation in July-August, this may be indicative of future summer drying over the Sahel. Wetter conditions in late summer over the Sahel are associated with enhanced moisture transport by the West African westerly jet, a strengthening of the jet itself, and moisture transport from the Mediterranean. Severe drought in East Africa during August and September is accompanied by a weakened Indian monsoon and Somali jet. Simulations with projected and idealized SST forcing suggest that overall SST warming in part supports this regional model ensemble agreement, although changes in SST gradients are important over West Africa in spring and fall. Simulations which isolate the role of individual climate forcings suggest that the spatial distribution of the rainfall predictions is controlled by the anomalous SST and lateral boundary conditions, while CO forcing within the regional model domain plays an important secondary role and generally produces wetter conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Based on daily maximum and minimum surface air temperature and precipitation records at 303 meteorological stations in China, the spatial and temporal distributions of indices of climate extremes are analyzed during 1961-2003. Twelve indices of extreme temperature and six of extreme precipitation are studied. Temperature extremes have high correlations with the annual mean temperature, which shows a significant warming of 0.27°C/decade, indicating that changes in temperature extremes reflect the consistent warming. Stations in northeastern, northern, northwestern China have larger trend magnitudes, which are accordance with the more rapid mean warming in these regions. Countrywide, the mean trends for cold days and cold nights have decreased by −0.47 and −2.06 days/decade respectively, and warm days and warm nights have increased by 0.62 and 1.75 days/decade, respectively. Over the same period, the number of frost days shows a statistically significant decreasing trend of −3.37 days/decade. The length of the growing season and the number of summer days exhibit significant increasing trends at rates of 3.04 and 1.18 days/decade, respectively. The diurnal temperature range has decreased by −0.18°C/decade. Both the annual extreme lowest and highest temperatures exhibit significant warming trends, the former warming faster than the latter. For precipitation indices, regional annual total precipitation shows an increasing trend and most other precipitation indices are strongly correlated with annual total precipitation. Average wet day precipitation, maximum 1-day and 5-day precipitation, and heavy precipitation days show increasing trends, but only the last is statistically significant. A decreasing trend is found for consecutive dry days. For all precipitation indices, stations in the Yangtze River basin, southeastern and northwestern China have the largest positive trend magnitudes, while stations in the Yellow River basin and in northern China have the largest negative magnitudes. This is inconsistent with changes of water vapor flux calculated from NCEP/NCAR reanalysis. Large scale atmospheric circulation changes derived from NCEP/NCAR reanalysis grids show that a strengthening anticyclonic circulation, increasing geopotential height and rapid warming over the Eurasian continent have contributed to the changes in climate extremes in China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) used for the IPCC 4th Assessment Report (IPCC AR4) are evaluated for the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) current climate modelling. The most suited AOGCMs for Greenland climate simulation are then selected on the basis of comparison between the 1970-1999 outputs of the Climate of the twentieth Century experiment (20C3M) and reanalyses (ECMWF, NCEP/NCAR). This comparison indicates that the representation quality of surface parameters such as temperature and precipitation are highly correlated to the atmospheric circulation (500 hPa geopotential height) and its interannual variability (North Atlantic oscillation). The outputs of the three most suitable AOGCMs for present-day climate simulation are then used to assess the changes estimated by three IPCC greenhouse gas emissions scenarios (SRES) over the GrIS for the 2070-2099 period. Future atmospheric circulation changes are projected to dampen the zonal flow, enhance the meridional fluxes and therefore provide additional heat and moisture to the GrIS, increasing temperature over the whole ice sheet and precipitation over its northeastern area. We also show that the GrIS surface mass balance anomalies from the SRES A1B scenario amount to −300 km/year with respect to the 1970-1999 period, leading to a global sea-level rise of 5 cm by the end of the 21st century. This work can help to select the boundaries conditions for AOGCMs-based downscaled future projections. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study documents the decadal changes of the summer precipitation in East China, with increased rainfall in the Huang-Huai River region (HR) and decreased in the Yangtze River region (YR) during 2000-2008 in comparison to 1979-1999. The main features of the atmospheric circulation related to the increased precipitation in the HR are the strengthened ascending motion and slightly increased air humidity, which is partly due to the weakened moisture transport out of the HR to the western tropical Pacific (associated with the weakened westerly over East Asia and the warming center over the Lake Baikal). The rainfall decrease in the YR is related to the weakened ascending motion and reduced water vapor content, which is mainly related to the weakened southwesterly moisture flux into the YR (associated with the eastward recession of the Western Pacific Subtropical High). The global sea surface temperature (SST) also shows significant changes during 2000-2008 relative to 1979-1999. The shift of the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) to a negative phase probably induces the warming over the Lake Baikal and the weakened westerly jet through the air-sea interaction in the Pacific, and thus changes the summer precipitation pattern in East China. Numerical experiments using an atmospheric general circulation model, with prescribed all-Pacific SST anomalies of 2000-2008 relative to 1979-1999, also lend support to the PDO's contribution to the warming over the Lake Baikal and the weakened westerlies over East China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Data from global and regional climate models refer to grid cells and, hence, are basically different from station data. This particularly holds for variables with enhanced spatio-temporal variability like precipitation. On the other hand, many applications like for instance hydrological models require atmospheric data with the statistical characteristics of station data. Here, we present a dynamical-statistical tool to construct virtual station data based on regional climate model output for tropical West Africa. This weather generator (WEGE) incorporates daily gridded rainfall from the model, an orographic term and a stochastic term, accounting for the chaotic spatial distribution of local rain events within a model grid box. In addition, the simulated probability density function of daily precipitation is adjusted to available station data in Benin. It is also assured that the generated data are still consistent with other model parameters like cloudiness and atmospheric circulation. The resulting virtual station data are in excellent agreement with various observed characteristics which are not explicitly addressed by the WEGE algorithm. This holds for the mean daily rainfall intensity and variability, the relative number of rainless days and the scaling of precipitation in time. The data set has already been used successfully for various climate impact studies in Benin. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

variable-grid atmospheric general circulation model, LMDZ, with a local zoom over southeast China is used to investigate regional climate changes in terms of both means and extremes. Two time slices of 30 years are chosen to represent, respectively, the end of the 20th century and the middle of the 21st century. The lower-boundary conditions (sea-surface temperature and sea-ice extension) are taken from the outputs of three global coupled climate models: Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace (IPSL), Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques (CNRM) and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL). Results from a two-way nesting system between LMDZ-global and LMDZ-regional are also presented. The evaluation of simulated temperature and precipitation for the current climate shows that LMDZ reproduces generally well the spatial distribution of mean climate and extreme climate events in southeast China, but the model has systematic cold biases in temperature and tends to overestimate the extreme precipitation. The two-way nesting model can reduce the 'cold bias' to some extent compared to the one-way nesting model. Results with greenhouse gas forcing from the SRES-A2 emission scenario show that there is a significant increase for mean, daily-maximum and minimum temperature in the entire region, associated with a decrease in the number of frost days and an increase in the heat wave duration. The annual frost days are projected to significantly decrease by 12-19 days while the heat wave duration to increase by about 7 days. A warming environment gives rise to changes in extreme precipitation events. Except two simulations (LMDZ/GFDL and LMDZ/IPSL2) that project a decrease in maximum 5-day precipitation (R5d) for winter, other precipitation extremes are projected to increase over most of southeast China in all seasons, and among the three global scenarios. The domain-averaged values for annual simple daily intensity index (SDII), R5d and fraction of total rainfall from extreme events (R95t) are projected to increase by 6-7, 10-13 and 11-14%, respectively, relative to their present-day values. However, it is clear that more research will be needed to assess the uncertainties on the projection in future of climate extremes at local scale. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We study the influence of synoptic scale atmospheric circulation on extreme daily precipitation across the United Kingdom, using observed time series from 689 rain gauges. To this end we employ a statistical model, that uses airflow strength, direction and vorticity as predictors for the generalised extreme value distribution of monthly precipitation maxima. The inferred relationships are connected with the dominant westerly flow, the orography, and the moisture supply from surrounding seas. We aggregated the results for individual rain gauges to regional scales to investigate the temporal variability of extreme precipitation. Airflow explains a significant fraction of the variability on subannual to decadal time scales. A large fraction of the especially heavy winter precipitation during the 1980s and 1990s in north Scotland can be attributed to a prevailing positive phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation. Our statistical model can be used for statistical downscaling and to validate regional climate model output. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We discuss equilibrium changes in daily extreme surface air temperature and precipitation events in response to doubled atmospheric CO2, simulated in an ensemble of 53 versions of HadSM3, consisting of the HadAM3 atmospheric general circulation model (GCM) coupled to a mixed layer ocean. By virtue of its size and design, the ensemble, which samples uncertainty arising from the parameterisation of atmospheric physical processes and the effects of natural variability, provides a first opportunity to quantify the robustness of predictions of changes in extremes obtained from GCM simulations. Changes in extremes are quantified by calculating the frequency of exceedance of a fixed threshold in the 2 × CO2 simulation relative to the 1 × CO2 simulation. The ensemble-mean value of this relative frequency provides a best estimate of the expected change while the range of values across the ensemble provides a measure of the associated uncertainty. For example, when the extreme threshold is defined as the 99th percentile of the 1 × CO2 distribution, the global-mean ensemble-mean relative frequency of extremely warm days is found to be 20 in January, and 28 in July, implying that events occurring on one day per hundred under present day conditions would typically occur on 20–30 days per hundred under 2 × CO2 conditons. However the ensemble range in the relative frequency is of similar magnitude to the ensemble-mean value, indicating considerable uncertainty in the magnitude of the increase. The relative frequencies in response to doubled CO2 become smaller as the threshold used to define the extreme event is reduced. For one variable (July maximum daily temperature) we investigate this simulated variation with threshold, showing that it can be quite well reproduced by assuming the response to doubling CO2 to be characterised simply as a uniform shift of a Gaussian distribution. Nevertheless, doubling CO2 does lead to changes in the shape of the daily distributions for both temperature and precipitation, but the effect of these changes on the relative frequency of extreme events is generally larger for precipitation. For example, around one-fifth of the globe exhibits ensemble-mean decreases in time-averaged precipitation accompanied by increases in the frequency of extremely wet days. The ensemble range of changes in precipitation extremes (relative to the ensemble mean of the changes) is typically larger than for temperature extremes, indicating greater uncertainty in the precipitation changes. In the global average, extremely wet days are predicted to become twice as common under 2 × CO2 conditions. We also consider changes in extreme seasons, finding that simulated increases in the frequency of extremely warm or wet seasons under 2 × CO2 are almost everywhere greater than the corresponding increase in daily extremes. The smaller increases in the frequency of daily extremes is explained by the influence of day-to-day weather variability which inflates the variance of daily distributions compared to their seasonal counterparts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The present study investigates the sensitivity of the frequency distribution of precipitation rates to the closure employed in the penetrative mass flux cumulus parameterization of Zhang and McFarlane in the Canadian regional climate model (CRCM) and in the Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis third generation global atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM3). The effects of an alternative prognostic closure for mass flux cumulus parameterization in place of the original diagnostic closure are investigated. A set of experiments is performed in which changes in the frequency distribution of precipitation rates and cloud base mass-flux are examined as a function of the parameters that define each closure scheme. The relationship between the frequency distribution of precipitation and cloud base mass flux is examined and a self-consistent relation is found when the depth of convection is taken into account. Experiments performed with the prognostic closure favor relatively strong cloud base mass-flux and deep penetrative convection with relatively more intense convective precipitation. The mean of the frequency distribution of convective precipitation is larger and the heavier events become more intense. Also, experiments performed with the prognostic closure favor less frequent convective activity. However these changes in the distribution of convective component of precipitation are generally offset by opposite changes in the distribution of the resolved large-scale component of precipitation, resulting in relatively smaller changes in total precipitation. The altered partition of precipitation between convective and large-scale components is found to alter the energy balance and the thermodynamic equilibrium structure of the troposphere. The robustness found in the CRCM results regarding the sensitivity of the frequency distribution of precipitation to changes in the closure of the deep convection parameterization is investigated by performing a similar analysis of AGCM3 simulations. A remarkable similarity of AGCM3 and CRCM results is found suggesting that the closure sensitivity identified in this study is robust. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The study uses a GCM (ECHAM-OPYC3) and the association between the atmospheric circulation at 925 and 500 hPa and the distribution of daily precipitation for Mediterranean Spain (from earlier analyses) to give estimates of the probable annual precipitation for the late twenty first century. A down-scaling technique is used which involves the matching of daily circulation output from the model for a sequence of years in the late twentieth century (1971–90) and for a corresponding period in the late twenty first century (2080–99) to derive probable regional atmospheric pattern (AP) frequencies for this latter period, and thence to estimate likely changes in annual precipitation. Model days are classified by searching for the closest analogue amongst 19 previously identified APs from an earlier study. Future annual precipitation distribution is derived using previously established relationships between circulation type and daily precipitation distribution. Predicted AP frequencies and precipitation amounts and distribution are compensated by comparing model output with ECMWF data for a decade (1984–93) within the 1971–90 sequence, so that the analysis also provides a verification of the performance of the model. In general the agreement between model output and actual AP frequencies is very good for the present day, though for this southerly region the model appears slightly to under-estimate the frequency of easterly type circulations, many of which yield some of the most significant autumn severe storm rainfalls along the Mediterranean coast. The model tends to over-estimate the frequency of westerly type situations. The study utilises a 'moving window' technique in an attempt to derive measures of inter-decadal variability within the two 20 year periods. This avoids use of data from outside the periods, which would incorporate changing AP frequencies during a period of sustained climate change. Quite pronounced changes in frequency are indicated for certain APs. Marked decreases in frequency are indicated for many near-surface circulations with a westerly or northerly component. For APs with an easterly component, some are shown to increase, others to decrease. Increases in inter-decadal variability are strongly indicated for most APs, though for some easterly situations there is no clear signal. A significant annual precipitation reduction of between 6 to 14% is indicated for Andalucía and the upland parts of Cataluña. In contrast, there is an increase in annual totals of up to 14% along parts of the coast between Almería and the French border. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A seasonally and regionally differentiated glacier model is used to estimate the contribution that glaciers are likely to make to global sea level rise over a period of 70 years. A high resolution general circulation model (ECHAM4 T106) is used to estimate temperature and precipitation changes for a doubled CO2 climate and serves as input for the glacier model. Volume-area relations are used to take into account the reduction of glacier area resulting from greenhouse warming. Each glacieriated region has a specified glacier size distribution, defined by the number of glaciers in a size class and a mean area. Changes in glacier volume are calculated by a precipitation dependent mass balance sensitivity. The model predicts a global sea level rise of 57 mm over a period of 70 years. This corresponds to a sensitivity of 0.86 mm yr-1K-1. Assuming a constant glacier area as done in earlier work leads to an overestimation of 19% for the contribution to sea level rise. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]