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This paper presents new modeling evidence showing the added value of high-resolution information from South America (SA) in the simulation of the Southern Hemisphere (SH) extratropical circulation. LMDZ, a coarse-resolution atmospheric global general circulation model constitutes the main tool for this investigation. Parallel to the control simulation, a two-way nesting (TWN) simulation of LMDZ is performed with an interactive coupling to the same model, but with a higher-resolution zoom over SA. The third simulation is a perfect boundary simulation for which re-analysis information from ERA-Interim is used to nudge LMDZ, but only over SA. Results indicate that enhanced resolution over SA improves the representation of the most important processes that influence extratropical eddy activity. The local improvement is followed by a better representation of the global extratropical circulation, especially in austral summer. The regional climate enhancement over SA has positive effects on simulation of the midlatitude jet position during the austral summer by significantly reducing the bias of the mean zonal kinetic energy outside the nudged zone. On the other hand, the wintertime general circulation outside the nudged-zone shows a limited bias-reduction for the regional-driven simulations, especially in the case of the TWN system. However, improvements of the TWN system compared to the control experiment are noticed in early stages of cyclone lifecycle, as it is identified in a better simulation of transient meridional heat transport and transient kinetic energy intensity. The findings of the present study suggest, thus, that improvements in resolution over SA effectively excite the simulation of the mean atmospheric circulation in the SH. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

On a hemispheric scale, it is now well established that stratospheric ozone depletion has been the principal driver of externally forced atmospheric circulation changes south of the Equator in the last decades of the 20th Century. The impact of ozone depletion has been felt over the entire hemisphere, as reflected in the poleward drift of the midlatitude jet, the southward expansion of the summertime Hadley cell and accompanying precipitation trends deep into the subtropics. On a regional scale, however, surface impacts directly attributable to ozone depletion have yet to be identified. In this paper we focus on South Eastern South America (SESA), a region that has exhibited one of the largest wetting trends during the 20th Century. We study the impact of ozone depletion on SESA precipitation using output from 6 different climate models, spanning a wide range of complexity. In all cases we contrast pairs of model integrations with and without ozone depletion, but with all other forcings identically specified. This allows for unambiguous attribution of the computed precipitation trends. All 6 climate models consistently reveal that stratospheric ozone depletion results in a significant wetting of SESA over the period 1960-1999. Taken as a whole, these model results strongly suggest that the impact of ozone depletion on SESA precipitation has been as large as, and quite possibly larger than, the one caused by increasing greenhouse gases over the same period. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents a new vision on the cold and cool events that affect the tropical region of South America, considering the dynamics and the energetics of wave train propagation associated with these systems. Through a composite analysis of meridional winds at 300 hPa for cold (T < 0 °C) and cool (0 °C ≤ T ≤ 2.5 °C) air incursions affecting tropical latitudes and causing frost are studied. The cold events observed in tropical latitudes are associated with a single Rossby wave pattern propagating over the Pacific Ocean which drives the low level anticyclone from the southwest of the continent to low latitudes. This propagation involves a southern circulation due to the meridional wind penetration and consequently cold air advection causing temperatures to drop below 0 °C. During cool events a subtropical wave train propagating through the Pacific Ocean is observed, which merges before the event with a wave coming from the subpolar latitudes of the South Atlantic Ocean. The zonal propagation leads to the entrance of the anticyclone from the west of the continent, and it is strengthened together with the meridionaly extended cyclone located upstream. This configuration causes southerly wind advection over central-southeastern Brazil and consequently causes the temperature decrease. The energetics shows that the cold events kinetic energy maxima are more intense than those of cool events. For the cold events three maxima are observed, the first (K1) and the third (K3) maxima are developed by baroclinic conversion and ageostrophic flux convergence and the second one (K2) by ageostrophic flux convergence. For the cool events two maxima are found, the first maximum (K4) developed by baroclinic conversion and the second one by ageostrophic flux convergence. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The aim of this paper is to investigate different aspects of the seasonal-to-interannual temperature variability in Eastern Patagonia, the southernmost area of South America, east of the Andes Cordillera. Homogenous regions of seasonal variability and the atmospheric circulation patterns associated with warm and cold conditions in each of them are described in this study. Relationships between temperature in Eastern Patagonia and that registered in other areas of southern South America are also addressed. Results show that the northern and southern areas of Eastern Patagonia have different temperature variability in summer and autumn whereas the temperature variability tends to be more homogeneous within the region during winter and spring. Warm (cold) conditions in the northern areas are associated with reinforced (weakened) westerlies in summer, winter and spring whereas northerly (southerly) advections of warm (cold) air toward the region produce such conditions in autumn. Temperature in the southern portion of Eastern Patagonia is affected by anticyclonic (cyclonic) anomalies that enhance (reduce) the incoming solar radiation and induce reinforced (weakened) westerlies promoting warm (cold) conditions in the region. Furthermore, cyclonic (anticyclonic) anomalies at subpolar latitudes hinder (favor) outbreaks of cold air increasing (decreasing) the temperature over areas of Eastern Patagonia. The circulation anomalies associated with warm (cold) conditions in Eastern Patagonia also promote cold (warm) conditions over areas of northern Argentina, Paraguay and southern Brazil. Consequently, a dipole of temperature is detected in southern South America with centers of opposite sign over these regions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Generalized frosts (GF) in central-southern South America have a strong impact due to their spatial extension, and they are especially important when they become persistent. This paper aims at identifying the atmospheric circulation features that determine the extreme GF persistence, i.e. very persistent and without persistence, and the differences between them, during the 1961-1990 winters. Since the GF without persistence group outnumbers the other one, two subgroups are composed with events selected from winters with maximum and minimum frequency of GF occurrence, respectively. Additionally, the individual event of July 1988 within the very persistent GF group is analyzed due to its exceptional persistence. GF persistence is mainly conditioned by two large-scale dynamic factors. One is the Rossby wave train propagation across the Pacific Ocean, and the other one is the location with respect to the continent and the magnitude of the confluence in the jet entrance region in subtropical latitudes. A predominantly meridional Rossby wave train propagation with a confluence region to the west of the continent prior to the event favors GF with intermediate (null) persistence depending on the greater (lesser) jet acceleration. This is conditioned by the magnitude of the confluence, which, in turn, depends on the disposition of the wave train propagation pattern. Instead, an essentially zonal propagation with a confluence region to the east of the continent favors the GF persistence for several days, yet if there is no confluence the event does not persist. The greatest persistence of an event combines the confluence/diffluence of the jet entrance/exit region, which depends on the disposition with respect to the continent of the zonally propagating Rossby wave trains. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Heat waves in Amazonia have become more frequent, longer, and more intense according to observational records. Climate change and deforestation are two significant drivers of such trends. In the Amazon rainforest, heat waves are still an understudied issue, in part due to limited surface observations. To date, heat waves in central Amazon have been associated with the ITCZ northward migration in austral winter, weakening moisture influx through the South American Monsoon System. This study contributes to this topic by being the first Amazon-specific analysis of heat extremes and the first in South America to jointly explore extreme heat wave events and associated synoptic atmospheric and land surface conditions. Ten of the most extreme heat waves are identified in the Southeast of Amazonia, from Era-Interim (1979 to 2018) maximum daily temperature records. Dry conditions are measured from relative humidity and evaporative fraction anomalies at surface and vertically also using the Era-Interim data. In all 10 events an extreme drying signal co-occurs with extreme heat waves. Wind patterns and anomalies revealed a consistent easterly dry advection anomalously extending to Southeast Amazonia. In addition, an intensification of the northerly South Atlantic Anticyclone wind circulation reduced the influx of moisture to Southeast Amazon, namely linked to the South American Low Level Jet. These, together, contributed to a compound effect on the extreme heat waves under near-surface drying conditions, which escalated hot temperatures to extreme heat. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The water cycle over the Amazon basin is a regulatory mechanism for regional and global climate. The atmospheric moisture evaporated from this basin represents an important source of humidity for itself and for other remote regions. The deforestation rates that this basin has experienced in the past decades have implications for regional atmospheric circulation and water vapor transport. In this study, we analyzed the changes in atmospheric moisture transport towards tropical South America during the period 1961–2010, according to two deforestation scenarios of the Amazon defined by Alves et al. (Theor Appl Climatol 100(3-4):337–350, 2017). These scenarios consider deforested areas of approximately 28% and 38% of the Amazon basin, respectively. The Dynamic Recycling Model is used to track the transport of water vapor from different sources in tropical South America and the surrounding oceans. Our results indicate that under deforestation scenarios in the Amazon basin, continental sources reduce their contributions to northern South America at an annual scale by an average of between 40 and 43% with respect to the baseline state. Our analyses suggest that these changes may be related to alterations in the regional Hadley and Walker cells. Amazon deforestation also induces a strengthening of the cross-equatorial flow that transports atmospheric moisture from the Tropical North Atlantic and the Caribbean Sea to tropical South America during the austral summer. A weakening of the cross-equatorial flow is observed during the boreal summer, reducing moisture transport from the Amazon to latitudes further north. These changes alter the patterns of precipitable water contributions to tropical South America from both continental and oceanic sources. Finally, we observed that deforestation over the Amazon basin increases the frequency of occurrence of longer dry seasons in the central-southern Amazon (by between 29 and 57%), depending on the deforestation scenario considered, as previous studies suggest. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Warm-season precipitation variability over subtropical South America is characterized by an inverse relationship between the South Atlantic convergence zone (SACZ) and precipitation over the central and western La Plata basin of southeastern South America. This study extends the analysis of this 'South American Seesaw' precipitation dipole to relationships between the SACZ and large, long-lived mesoscale convective systems (LLCSs) over the La Plata basin. By classifying SACZ events into distinct continental and oceanic categories and building a logistic regression model that relates LLCS activity across the region to continental and oceanic SACZ precipitation, a detailed account of spatial variability in the out-of-phase coupling between the SACZ and large-scale organized convection over the La Plata basin is provided. Enhanced precipitation in the continental SACZ is found to result in increased LLCS activity over northern, northeastern, and western sections of the La Plata basin, in association with poleward atmospheric moisture flux from the Amazon basin toward these regions, and a decrease in the probability of LLCS occurrence over the southeastern La Plata basin. Increased oceanic SACZ precipitation, however, was strongly related to reduced atmospheric moisture and decreased probability of LLCS occurrence over nearly the entire La Plata basin. These results suggest that continental SACZ activity and large-scale organized convection over the northern and eastern sections of the La Plata basin are closely tied to atmospheric moisture transport from the Amazon basin, while the warm coastal Brazil Current may also play an important role as an evaporative moisture source for LLCSs over the central and western La Plata basin. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Intraseasonal (IS) variability in South America is analyzed during the cold season using 10-90 day bandpass filtered OLR anomalies (FOLR). IS variability explains a large percentage of variance with maximum values over Paraguay, northeastern Argentina, and southern Brazil. The leading pattern of FOLR, as isolated from an EOF analysis, (Cold Season IS pattern, CSIS), is characterized by a monopole centered over southeastern South America (SESA) with a northwest-southeast orientation. CSIS induces a large modulation on daily precipitation anomalies, especially on both wet spells and daily precipitation extremes, which are favored during positive (wet) CSIS phases. Large-Scale OLR anomalies over the tropical Indian and west Pacific Oceans associated with CSIS exhibit eastward propagation along tropical latitudes. In addition, circulation anomalies in the Southern Hemisphere reveal the presence of an anticyclonic anomaly over Antarctica with opposite-sign anomalies in middle latitudes 10 days before CSIS is maximum as well as evidence of Rossby wave-like patterns. Positive precipitation anomalies in SESA are favored during wet CSIS phases by the intensification of a cyclonic anomaly located further south, which is discernible over the southeastern Pacific for at least 14 days before CSIS peaks. The cyclonic anomaly evolution is accompanied by the intensification of an upstream anticyclonic anomaly, which remains quasi-stationary near the Antarctica Peninsula before the CSIS peak. We speculate that the stationary behavior of the anticyclonic center is favored by a hemispheric circulation anomaly pattern resembling that associated with a negative southern annular mode phase and a wavenumber 3-4 pattern at middle latitudes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study describes the main circulation patterns (CP) in the Amazonian Basin over the 1975-2002 period and their relationship with rainfall variability. CPs in the Amazonian Basin have been computed for each season from the ERA-40 daily 850 hPa winds using an approach combining artificial neural network (Self Organizing Maps) and Hierarchical Ascendant Classification. A 6 to 8 cluster solutions (depending on the season considered) is shown to yield an integrated view of the complex regional circulation variability. For austral fall, winter and spring the temporal evolution between the different CPs shows a clear tendency to describe a cycle, with southern wind anomalies and their convergence with the trade winds progressing northward from the La Plata Basin to the Amazon Basin. This sequence is strongly related to eastward moving extra tropical perturbations and their incursion toward low latitude that modulate the geopotential and winds over South America and its adjoining oceans. During Austral summer, CPs are less spatially and temporally organized compared to other seasons, principally due to weaker extra tropical perturbations and more frequent shallow low situations. Each of these CPs is shown to be associated with coherent northward moving regional rainfall patterns (both in in situ data and ERA-40 reanalysis) and convective activity. However, our results reveals that precipitation variability is better reproduced by ERA-40 in the southern part of the Amazonian Basin than in the northern part, where rainfall variability is likely to be more constrained by local and subdaily processes (e.g. squall lines) that could be misrepresented in the reanalysis dataset. This analysis clearly illustrates the existing connections between the southern and northern part of the Amazonian Basin in terms of regional circulation/rainfall patterns. The identification of these CPs provide useful information to understand local rainfall variability and could hence be used to better understand the influence of these CPs on the hydrological variability in the Amazonian Basin. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We present an analysis of climate change over southern South America as simulated by a regional climate model. The regional model MM5 was nested within time-slice global atmospheric model experiments conducted by the HadAM3H model. The simulations cover a 10-year period representing present-day climate (1981–1990) and two future scenarios for the SRESA2 and B2 emission scenarios for the period 2081–2090. There are a few quantitative differences between the two regional scenarios. The simulated changes are larger for the A2 than the B2 scenario, although with few qualitative differences. For the two regional scenarios, the warming in southern Brazil, Paraguay, Bolivia and northeastern Argentina is particularly large in spring. Over the western coast of South America both scenarios project a general decrease in precipitation. Both the A2 and B2 simulations show a general increase in precipitation in northern and central Argentina especially in summer and fall and a general decrease in precipitation in winter and spring. In fall the simulations agree on a general decrease in precipitation in southern Brazil. This reflects changes in the atmospheric circulation during winter and spring. Changes in mean sea level pressure show a cell of increasing pressure centered somewhere in the southern Atlantic Ocean and southern Pacific Ocean, mainly during summer and fall in the Atlantic and in spring in the Pacific. In relation to the pressure distribution in the control run, this indicates a southward extension of the summer mean Atlantic and Pacific subtropical highs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Based on previous observational studies of the mean atmospheric circulation leading to generalized frosts (GF) in central Southern South America, it is possible to establish a hypothesis that specific large scale patterns are associated to the frequency of occurrence of these events through the propagation of Rossby waves remotely excited. This hypothesis is tested here through a teleconnection analysis for austral winters which present an extreme frequency of occurrence of GF in southeastern South America, particularly over the Wet Pampa area in Argentina. Rossby wave propagation regions are identified for two basic states given by the composition of winters with maximum and minimum frequency of GF occurrence, during the 1961–1990 period. The stationary wavenumber K s indicates the regions where the Rossby wave propagation is permitted and those where it will be inhibited ( K s = 0), highlighting the importance of the jets as waveguides. Nevertheless, differences exist between both basic states analyzed. These differences indicate that the locations for wave generation and its later evolution are conditioned by the basic state. Results are validated through a baroclinic model, which simulates the Rossby wave patterns responsible for the teleconnection. Numerical experiments confirm that the principal wave activity takes place inside the subtropical and polar jets. In particular, for the basic state with maximum frequency of GF occurrence, the wave trains propagating inside the subtropical and polar waveguides merge just before entering the continent, as shown by the observations prior to the occurrence of GF events. This configuration favors the development of an intense south wind anomaly with large meridional extension which results in the intensification of anticyclonic circulation in southern South America. A conceptual model is presented to summarise all these results. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To enable downscaling of seasonal prediction and climate change scenarios, long-term baseline regional climatologies which employ global model forcing are needed for South America. As a first step in this process, this work examines climatological integrations with a regional climate model using a continental scale domain nested in both reanalysis data and multiple realizations of an atmospheric general circulation model (GCM). The analysis presents an evaluation of the nested model simulated large scale circulation, mean annual cycle and interannual variability which is compared against observational estimates and also with the driving GCM for the Northeast, Amazon, Monsoon and Southeast regions of South America. Results indicate that the regional climate model simulates the annual cycle of precipitation well in the Northeast region and Monsoon regions; it exhibits a dry bias during winter (July–September) in the Southeast, and simulates a semi-annual cycle with a dry bias in summer (December–February) in the Amazon region. There is little difference in the annual cycle between the GCM and renalyses driven simulations, however, substantial differences are seen in the interannual variability. Despite the biases in the annual cycle, the regional model captures much of the interannual variability observed in the Northeast, Southeast and Amazon regions. In the Monsoon region, where remote influences are weak, the regional model improves upon the GCM, though neither show substantial predictability. We conclude that in regions where remote influences are strong and the global model performs well it is difficult for the regional model to improve the large scale climatological features, indeed the regional model may degrade the simulation. Where remote forcing is weak and local processes dominate, there is some potential for the regional model to add value. This, however, will require improvments in physical parameterizations for high resolution tropical simulations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Ensembles of 1-year-long experiments with a relatively high-resolution ECMWF model were conducted in order to investigate the impact of modified land surface properties on local, regional and large-scale atmospheric circulations. The modifications consisted of changes to land cover and increased albedo over the northern part of South America. In many respects the experimental design resembles the setting of classical deforestation experiments. The local model response to imposed modifications, which includes a reduction in precipitation as well as in evaporation and an increase in surface temperature, was found to be stronger in dry (July–September, JAS) than in wet (January–March, JFM) season, and in the ensemble with higher albedo value. Local drying is discussed in terms of locally generated overturning that resembles a direct thermal circulation. The effects of this circulation seem to be dominant over the reduction in large-scale moisture supply from the adjacent ocean. On large scales, changes to the Pacific branch of the Walker circulation lead, through modified divergent flow, to a tropics-wide impact on precipitation. In addition to South America, the largest changes are seen in the south Pacific convergence zone in JFM, while the impact on the Atlantic inter-tropical convergence zone is stronger in JAS. In the extratropics, there is little change in precipitation. In the upper troposphere, a distinctive teleconnection wave-pattern could be seen in the Pacific/North American region during JFM. A notable feature in the upper-air model response in JAS is a wave train extending from South America, over the northern Atlantic into Europe. With regard to the interaction between the land surface response and model systematic errors, our results suggest that the erroneous shift of the downward branch of the Pacific/South American Walker circulation is likely to be a cause, rather than a consequence, of the rainfall deficit over South America in the model climatology. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The simulated low-frequency variability patterns of the atmospheric circulation, ranging from interannual to interdecadal timescales, are studied in an area encompassing southern South America. The experiment is a transient simulation performed with the IPSL CCM2 coupled global model, in which the greenhouse forcing is continuously increasing. The main modes of low-frequency variability are found to remain stationary throughout the simulation, suggesting they depend more on the internal dynamics of the atmospheric flow than on its external forcing. Inspection of the circulation regimes that represent the more recurrent patterns at interannual and interdecadal timescales showed that climate change manifests itself as a change in regime population, suggesting that the negative phase of the Antarctic Oscillation-like pattern becomes more frequented in a climate change scenario. Changes of regime occurrence are superimposed to a positive trend whose spatial pattern is reminiscent of the structure of the Antarctic Oscillation-mode of variability. Moreover, it resembles the spatial patterns of those regimes that show a significant change in population. The change in regime frequencies of the circulation patterns of low-frequency variability are in opposite phase with respect to the trend, thus, the behaviour of these patterns of variability, superimposed to a changing mean state, modulates the climate change signal. The analysis of the high frequencies, in terms of recurrent patterns representing intraseasonal and synoptic-scale of variability, shows no significant changes in regime characteristics, concerning both spatial and temporal behaviour. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A relevant feature of the South American low-level circulation during the wet season is a poleward warm and moist current immediately to the east of the Andes often referred to as a low-level jet, because of its resemblance to the Great Plains low-level jet. Provided that the lack of observational data causes a great deal of uncertainty on the ability of analyses to describe diurnal fluctuations of sub-synoptic features like a low-level jet, this description has been carried out using the Eta regional model. Special emphasis has been given to the detection and characterization of a low-level jet (LLJ) east of the Andes, as a feature best developed at night and mesoscale cross-stream dimensions. This study describes the modeled northerly current east of the Andes during the 1997–1998 warm season, and progress on its mean characterization, including diurnal fluctuations and horizontal and vertical structure. From moisture budget calculations a net convergence of moisture flux is found over an area that includes the Del Plata basin, with a maximum southward flux through the northern boundary at low levels. While there are evidences to suggest that this model provides a realistic description of the local circulation, it is emphasized that observational data are needed to gain further understanding of the behavior of the South American low-level jet and its role upon the regional climate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]