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On a hemispheric scale, it is now well established that stratospheric ozone depletion has been the principal driver of externally forced atmospheric circulation changes south of the Equator in the last decades of the 20th Century. The impact of ozone depletion has been felt over the entire hemisphere, as reflected in the poleward drift of the midlatitude jet, the southward expansion of the summertime Hadley cell and accompanying precipitation trends deep into the subtropics. On a regional scale, however, surface impacts directly attributable to ozone depletion have yet to be identified. In this paper we focus on South Eastern South America (SESA), a region that has exhibited one of the largest wetting trends during the 20th Century. We study the impact of ozone depletion on SESA precipitation using output from 6 different climate models, spanning a wide range of complexity. In all cases we contrast pairs of model integrations with and without ozone depletion, but with all other forcings identically specified. This allows for unambiguous attribution of the computed precipitation trends. All 6 climate models consistently reveal that stratospheric ozone depletion results in a significant wetting of SESA over the period 1960-1999. Taken as a whole, these model results strongly suggest that the impact of ozone depletion on SESA precipitation has been as large as, and quite possibly larger than, the one caused by increasing greenhouse gases over the same period. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation models (GCMs) lack sufficient resolution to model the regional detail of changes to mean circulation and rainfall with projected climate warming. In this paper, changes in mean circulation and rainfall in GCMs are compared to those in a variable resolution regional climate model, the Conformal Cubic Atmospheric Model (CCAM), under a high greenhouse gas emissions scenario. The study site is Tasmania, Australia, which is positioned within the mid-latitude westerlies of the southern hemisphere. CCAM projects a different response in mean sea level pressure and mid-latitude westerly circulation to climate warming to the GCMs used as input, and shows greater regional detail of the boundaries between regions of increasing and decreasing rainfall. Changes in mean circulation dominate the mean rainfall response in western Tasmania, whereas changes to rainfall in the East Coast are less related to mean circulation changes. CCAM projects an amplification of the dominant westerly circulation over Tasmania and this amplifies the seasonal cycle of wet winters and dry summers in the west. There is a larger change in the strength than in the incidence of westerly circulation and rainfall events. We propose the regional climate model displays a more sensitive atmospheric response to the different rates of warming of land and sea than the GCMs as input. The regional variation in these results highlight the need for dynamical downscaling of coupled general circulation models to finely resolve the influence of mean circulation and boundaries between regions of projected increases and decreases in rainfall. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The interannual variability of the frontal activity over the western Southern Hemisphere and its linkage with the variability of the atmospheric circulation and precipitation over southern South America is studied. The analysis is focused on the austral winter and spring seasons. The frontal activity is represented by an index defined as the product between the horizontal gradient of temperature and the relative vorticity at 850 hPa (FI) and is computed from the ERA Interim and NCEP2 reanalysis. For the two seasons the main mode of variability of FI, as depicted by the first Empirical Orthogonal Function, presents centres of action located in the southern part of the western Southern Hemisphere. This pattern is present in the two reanalysis datasets. The correlation coefficients between the principal component of the leading mode of FI and the two main modes of the 500 hPa geopotential height indicate that both the ENSO-mode and the SAM modulate the leading pattern of FI in winter while during the spring season the ENSO-mode controls the FI variability. The variability of the FI has a robust influence on the interannual variability of precipitation over southern South America and adjacent oceans. Over the continent, it was found that the pattern of precipitation anomalies associated with the variability of the FI depicts significant signals over southeastern South America (SESA), centre and south of Chile for winter and over SESA and southeastern Brazil for spring and agrees with the pattern of the leading mode of precipitation variability over southern South America. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study presents an analysis of three palaeoclimate rainfall reconstructions from the Southern Hemisphere regions of south-eastern Australia (SEA), southern South Africa (SAF) and southern South America (SSA). We provide a first comparison of rainfall variations in these three regions over the past two centuries, with a focus on identifying synchronous wet and dry periods. Despite the uncertainties associated with the spatial and temporal limitations of the rainfall reconstructions, we find evidence of dynamically-forced climate influences. An investigation of the twentieth century relationship between regional rainfall and the large-scale climate circulation features of the Pacific, Indian and Southern Ocean regions revealed that Indo-Pacific variations of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean dipole dominate rainfall variability in SEA and SAF, while the higher latitude Southern Annular Mode (SAM) exerts a greater influence in SSA. An assessment of the stability of the regional rainfall-climate circulation modes over the past two centuries revealed a number of non-stationarities, the most notable of which occurs during the early nineteenth century around 1820. This corresponds to a time when the influence of ENSO on SEA, SAF and SSA rainfall weakens and there is a strengthening of the influence of SAM. We conclude by advocating the use of long-term palaeoclimate data to estimate decadal rainfall variability for future water resource management. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An analysis is made of the coherent patterns, or modes, of interannual variability of Southern Hemisphere 500 hPa geopotential height field under current and projected climate change scenarios. Using three separate multi-model ensembles (MMEs) of coupled model intercomparison project phase 5 (CMIP5) models, the interannual variability of the seasonal mean is separated into components related to (1) intraseasonal processes; (2) slowly-varying internal dynamics; and (3) the slowly-varying response to external changes in radiative forcing. In the CMIP5 RCP8.5 and RCP4.5 experiments, there is very little change in the twenty-first century in the intraseasonal component modes, related to the Southern annular mode (SAM) and mid-latitude wave processes. The leading three slowly-varying internal component modes are related to SAM, the El Niño-Southern oscillation (ENSO), and the South Pacific wave (SPW). Structural changes in the slow-internal SAM and ENSO modes do not exceed a qualitative estimate of the spatial sampling error, but there is a consistent increase in the ENSO-related variance. Changes in the SPW mode exceed the sampling error threshold, but cannot be further attributed. Changes in the dominant slowly-varying external mode are related to projected changes in radiative forcing. They reflect thermal expansion of the tropical troposphere and associated changes in the Hadley Cell circulation. Changes in the externally-forced associated variance in the RCP8.5 experiment are an order of magnitude greater than for the internal components, indicating that the SH seasonal mean circulation will be even more dominated by a SAM-like annular structure. Across the three MMEs, there is convergence in the projected response in the slow-external component. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A new methodology is proposed that allows patterns of interannual covariability, or teleconnections, between the intraseasonal and slow components of seasonal mean Australian rainfall and the corresponding components in the Southern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation to be estimated. In all seasons, the dominant rainfall-circulation teleconnections in the intraseasonal component are shown to have the characteristic features associated with well-known intraseasonal dynamical and statistical atmospheric modes and their relationship with rainfall. Thus, for example, there are patterns of interannual covariability that reflect rainfall relationships with the intraseasonal Southern Annular Mode, the Madden-Julian Oscillation and wavenumber 3 and 4 intraseasonal modes of variability. The predictive characteristics of the atmospheric circulation-rainfall relationship are shown to reside with the slow components. In all seasons, we find rainfall-circulation teleconnections in the slow components related to the El Niño-Southern Oscillation. Each season also has a coupled mode, with a statistically significant trend in the time series of the atmospheric component that appears to be related to recent observed trends in rainfall. The slow Southern Annular Mode also features in association with southern Australian rainfall, especially during austral winter and spring. There is also evidence of an influence of Indian Ocean sea surface temperature variability on rainfall in southeast Australia during austral winter and spring. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Through study of observations and coupled climate simulations, it is argued that the mean position of the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) north of the equator is a consequence of a northwards heat transport across the equator by ocean circulation. Observations suggest that the hemispheric net radiative forcing of climate at the top of the atmosphere is almost perfectly symmetric about the equator, and so the total (atmosphere plus ocean) heat transport across the equator is small (order 0.2 PW northwards). Due to the Atlantic ocean's meridional overturning circulation, however, the ocean carries significantly more heat northwards across the equator (order 0.4 PW) than does the coupled system. There are two primary consequences. First, atmospheric heat transport is southwards across the equator to compensate (0.2 PW southwards), resulting in the ITCZ being displaced north of the equator. Second, the atmosphere, and indeed the ocean, is slightly warmer (by perhaps 2 °C) in the northern hemisphere than in the southern hemisphere. This leads to the northern hemisphere emitting slightly more outgoing longwave radiation than the southern hemisphere by virtue of its relative warmth, supporting the small northward heat transport by the coupled system across the equator. To conclude, the coupled nature of the problem is illustrated through study of atmosphere-ocean-ice simulations in the idealized setting of an aquaplanet, resolving the key processes at work. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study explores the relationship between latitudinal shifts in the eddy-driven jet and in the Hadley cell edge as depicted in models and reanalyses. We calculate an interannual shift ratio of approximately 1.5:1 between the eddy-driven jet and the Hadley cell edge over the Southern Hemisphere during austral summer in model data. We further find that the ratio varies from season to season, with similarities between corresponding seasons over each hemisphere. Ratios are broadly consistent between models in this study, and appear to be realistic when compared to those from reanalyses. Mean tropical SSTs and the strength of zonal winds in the tropics appear to be critical to determining the ratio, while sea surface temperature variability is not. We argue that conditions in the tropics act to modulate the effect of midlatitude eddies on the Hadley cell, and the action of eddies in turn explains most of the correlated shifts from year to year. In contrast, the mean state of the tropics is a poor predictor of both the ratio of observed trends in reanalyses and the ratio of modeled externally forced shifts. We show that the ratios of modeled shifts are dependent on the type of external forcing. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study investigates the possible effects of global warming on tropical cyclone (TC) activity. The study is conducted using the coupled ocean-atmosphere global climate model EC-Earth configured at a relatively high resolution (T159 with 62 vertical levels), which is integrated following the CMIP5 protocol. By considering the late twentieth century (1979-2009) in the historical simulation and the twenty-first century end (2070-2100) in the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, significant future annual mean frequency decreases are found globally and in both hemispheres, accompanied by significant mean lifetime decreases and significant intensity increases, the latter being found through several different measures (but with caveats). In addition, the relatively novel aspect of simulating TCs of the past (1900-1930) is studied to further assess the robustness of the climate change results. These results suggest that TCs in the early twentieth century were more frequent in the southern hemisphere and dissipated more energy in the southern hemisphere and the South Indian Ocean. Although some model biases are present and the coarse model resolution prevents intense TCs in being simulated, reasonable TC simulation skill for other metrics (e.g., TC genesis, frequency of occurrence) is found when validated against present day observations. Thus the model displays an acceptable ability to connect TC climatology with the larger scale circulation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An assessment is made of the modes of interannual variability in the seasonal mean summer and winter Southern Hemisphere 500 hPa geopotential height in the twentieth century in models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 (CMIP3) dataset. The analysis is done for both the intraseasonal and slow components of the geopotential height. When the CMIP3 models are assessed against reanalysis data, the spatial structure and variance of the leading modes in the intraseasonal component are generally well reproduced. There are systematic differences between the models in their reproduction of the leading modes in the slow component. An overall score using the leading modes in the slow component allows a categorisation of CMIP3 model performance. Using an ensemble from four models that suitably reproduce the twentieth century modes, modes of variability in the slow-internal and slow-external components are estimated. The leading mode of the slow-external component is shown to be related to observed changes in greenhouse gas concentrations. In this ensemble, there is little change in the leading modes in the intraseasonal component in the twenty-first century. Larger changes in variance, and subtle changes in regional-scale structure, are found for the leading modes in the slow-internal component. These are related to changes in the slowly varying dynamics of the Southern Annular Mode and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation. By far the biggest change is in the leading mode of the slow-external component. The spatial structure becomes uniform in the twenty-first century, and the variance increases with increasing greenhouse gas concentrations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study examines the influence of Antarctic sea ice distribution on the large scale circulation of the Southern Hemisphere using a fully coupled GCM where the sea ice submodel is replaced by a climatology of observed extremes in sea ice concentration. Three 150-year simulations were completed for maximum, minimum and average sea ice concentrations and the results for the austral summer (January-March) were compared using the surface temperatures forced by the sea ice distributions as a filter for creating the composite differences. The results indicate that in the austral summer the polar cell expands (contracts) under minimum (maximum) sea ice conditions with corresponding shifts in the midlatitude Ferrell cell. We suggest that this response occurs because sea ice lies in the margin between the polar and midlatitude cells. The polarity of the Southern Hemisphere Annular (SAM) mode is also influenced such that when sea ice is at a minimum (maximum) the polarity of the SAM tends to be negative (positive). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The seasonal mean variability of the atmospheric circulation is affected by processes with time scales from less than seasonal to interannual or longer. Using monthly mean data from an ensemble of Atmospheric General Circulation Model (AGCM) realisations, the interannual variability of the seasonal mean is separated into intraseasonal, and slowly varying components. For the first time, using a recently developed method, the slowly varying component in multiple AGCM ensembles is further separated into internal and externally forced components. This is done for Southern Hemisphere 500 hPa geopotential height from five AGCMs in the CLIVAR International Climate of the Twentieth Century project for the summer and winter seasons. In both seasons, the intraseasonal and slow modes of variability are qualitatively well reproduced by the models when compared with reanalysis data, with a relative metric finding little overall difference between the models. The Southern Annular Mode (SAM) is by far the dominant mode of slowly varying internal atmospheric variability. Two slow-external modes of variability are related to El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variability, and a third is the atmospheric response to trends in external forcing. An ENSO-SAM relationship is found in the model slow modes of variability, similar to that found by earlier studies using reanalysis data. There is a greater spread in the representation of model slow-external modes in winter than summer, particularly in the atmospheric response to external forcing trends. This may be attributable to weaker external forcing constraints on SH atmospheric circulation in winter. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The ability of five, global coupled climate models to simulate important atmospheric circulation characteristics in the Southern Hemisphere for the period 1960–1999 is assessed. The circulation features examined are the Southern Hemisphere annular mode (SAM), the semi-annual oscillation (SAO) and the quasi-stationary zonal wave 3 (ZW3). The models assessed are the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Climate System Model Version 3 (CCSM3), the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation Mark 3, the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Model, the Goddard Institute for Space Studies Model ER (GISS-ER) and the UK Meteorological Office Hadley Center Coupled Model Version 3. The simulations were compared to the NCAR–NCEP reanalyses. The models simulate a SAO which differs spatially from the observed over the Pacific and Indian oceans. The amplitudes are too high over the southern ocean and too low over the midlatitudes. These differences are attributed to a circumpolar trough which is too deep and extends too far north, and to the inability of the models to simulate the middle to high latitude temperature gradient. The SAM is well-represented spatially by most models but there are important differences which may influence the flow over the Pacific and in the region extending from the Ross to Weddell Seas. The observed trend towards positive polarity in the SAM is apparent in the ensemble averages of the GISS-ER and CCSM3 simulations, suggesting that the trend is due to external forcing by changes in the concentration of ozone and greenhouse gases. ZW3 is well-represented by the models but the observed trend towards positive phases of ZW3 is not apparent in the simulations suggesting that the observed trend may be due to natural variability, not external forcing. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]