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Present study attempts to project extreme precipitation indices over 34 different meteorological subdivisions and six homogeneous regions such as Northwest, Central Northeast, Northeast, West Central, Peninsular India and Hilly Region during summer monsoon season in the twenty-first century. For this purpose, the Regional Climate Model version4 (RegCM4) had been run at 50 km horizontal resolution forced with the global model GFDL-ESM2 M, during reference period 1976–2005 for the model validation, and the mid- (2031–2060) and far-future (2070–2099) for projections under RCP8.5 scenario over the South Asia CORDEX domain. In this paper, model simulated precipitation has been validated against IMD, APHRODITE and NCEP/NCAR data sets. The results indicate that RegCM4 captures the important features of seasonal precipitation and various extreme indices over the study area. The RegCM4 has projected an increase in the mean seasonal precipitation by 0.56 mm/day whereas in case of GFDL model the rate is 0.39 mm/day during the far-future relative to the reference period. The heavy precipitation indices are projected to increase more frequently (0.264/decade) than the mean precipitation rate (0.01/decade) over India. The correlations between the extreme precipitation indices and the seasonal mean precipitation are found to be strong. In addition, the consecutive dry days are projected to occur more frequently (3–5 days) over West Central (Telangana, Vidarbha and Marathwada) and west Rajasthan while consecutive wet days are projected to decrease over larger parts of India during far-future. Similarly, 1 day maximum precipitation and the simple daily intensity index are projected to increase consistently from mid- to far- futures over some sub-divisions of West coast, Hilly and Northeast regions. From a spatial probability perspective, model projection indicates more frequent severe drought and flood conditions over India. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Impacts of global warming and local scale urbanization on precipitation are evident from observations; hence both must be considered in future projections of urban precipitation. Dynamic regional models at a fine spatial resolution can capture the signature of urbanization on precipitation, however simulations for multiple decades are computationally expensive. In contrast, statistical regional models are computationally inexpensive but incapable of assessing the impacts of urbanization due to the stationary relationship between predictors and predictand. This paper aims to develop a unique modelling framework with a demonstration for Mumbai, India, where future urbanization is projected using a Markov Chain Cellular Automata approach, long term projections with climate change impacts are performed using statistical downscaling and urban impacts are simulated with a dynamic regional model for limited number of years covering different precipitation characteristics. The evaluation of the statistical downscaling methodology over historical time period reveals large underestimation of the extreme rainfall, which is improved effectively by applying another regression model, for extreme days. The limited runs of dynamic downscaling models with different stages of urbanization for Mumbai, India, reveal spatially non uniform changes in precipitation, occurring primarily at the higher quantiles. The statistical and dynamical outputs are further integrated using quantile transformation for precipitation projection in Mumbai during 2050s. The projections show dominant impacts of urbanization compared to those from large scale changing patterns. The uniqueness of this computationally efficient framework lies in an integration of global and local factors for precipitation projections through a conjugal statistical–dynamical approach. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this study, using the NCAR Community Earth System Model (CESM1.2.2), we investigate the changes in the characteristics of the summer monsoon low pressure systems (LPS) over India in a twenty-first century climate change simulation corresponding to the RCP8.5 scenario. A slight weakening in monsoon circulation and an increase in mean summer monsoon precipitation over India are simulated in a warmer climate, consistent with several previous studies. The weakening of the monsoon circulation is associated with a pair of anticyclonic anomalies straddling the equator in the low level, weakening the cross-equatorial monsoonal flow from the southern hemisphere. These low-level circulation anomalies appear to be robust features in the equatorial Indian Ocean under climate change. An increase in moisture flux is also simulated over the Indian subcontinent. However, we find no significant change in the number of LPS or their spatial distribution under the RCP8.5 scenario. This is attributed to a small but non-significant decrease in the low-level meridional cyclonic shear in zonal winds. An increase in the intensity and frequency of extreme precipitation over India in a warmer world is simulated and is likely associated with an increase in moisture content. Our study shows that the fractional contribution of LPS to mean and extreme precipitation over India in a warmer world is likely unchanged, but the frequency and intensity of extreme events are larger. Because of the diversity in the results from single model studies on LPS characteristics in a warmer world, a future study that uses CMIP6 multi-model data would be valuable to assess the robustness and the uncertainty in changes in LPS activities under climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Investigations into the climatic forcings that affect the long-term variability of the Indian summer monsoon are constrained by a lack of reliable rainfall data prior to the late nineteenth century. Extensive qualitative and quantitative meteorological information for the pre-instrumental period exists within historical documents, although these materials have been largely unexplored. This paper presents the first reconstruction of monsoon variability using documentary sources, focussing on western India for the period 1781-1860. Three separate reconstructions are generated, for (1) Mumbai, (2) Pune and (3) the area of Gujarat bordering the Gulf of Khambat. A composite chronology is then produced from the three reconstructions, termed the Western India Monsoon Rainfall reconstruction (WIMR). The WIMR exhibits four periods of generally deficient monsoon rainfall (1780-1785, 1799-1806, 1830-1838 and 1845-1857) and three of above-normal rainfall (1788-1794, 1813-1828 and 1839-1844). The WIMR shows good correspondence with a dendroclimatic drought reconstruction for Kerala, although agreement with the western Indian portion of the tree-ring derived Monsoon Asia Drought Atlas is less strong. The reconstruction is used to examine the long-term relationship between the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and monsoon rainfall over western India. This exhibits peaks and troughs in correlation over time, suggesting a regular long-term fluctuation. This may be an internal oscillation in the ENSO-monsoon system or may be related to volcanic aerosol forcings. Further reconstructions of monsoon rainfall are necessary to validate this. The study highlights uncertainties in existing published rainfall records for 1817-1846 for western India. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) can affect the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) state of the following year, in addition to the well-known preconditioning by equatorial Pacific Warm Water Volume (WWV), as suggested by a study based on observations over the recent satellite era (1981-2009). The present paper explores the interdecadal robustness of this result over the 1872-2008 period. To this end, we develop a robust IOD index, which well exploits sparse historical observations in the tropical Indian Ocean, and an efficient proxy of WWV interannual variations based on the temporal integral of Pacific zonal wind stress (of a historical atmospheric reanalysis). A linear regression hindcast model based on these two indices in boreal fall explains 50 % of ENSO peak variance 14 months later, with significant contributions from both the IOD and WWV over most of the historical period and a similar skill for El Niño and La Niña events. Our results further reveal that, when combined with WWV, the IOD index provides a larger ENSO hindcast skill improvement than the Indian Ocean basin-wide mode, the Indian Monsoon or ENSO itself. Based on these results, we propose a revised scheme of Indo-Pacific interactions. In this scheme, the IOD-ENSO interactions favour a biennial timescale and interact with the slower recharge-discharge cycle intrinsic to the Pacific Ocean. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In a climate change scenario, the present work deals with the possibility of the changes in the rainfall pattern during the principal monsoon season (June 1-September 30) of the Indian summer monsoon. For this purpose three attributes are defined as DTMR, DHMR and DNMR representing the day when 10, 50 and 90 % of the accumulated summer monsoon rainfall is achieved respectively. Using a high resolution (1° × 1°) gridded rainfall data set for the last 50 years prepared by India Meteorological Department (Rajeevan et al. , in Curr Sci 91:296-306, ), the analysis has been carried out over the different parts of the Indian subcontinent. Using statistically robust significance tests, it is observed that the distribution of the three variables have changed significantly at 1 % (or 5 %) significance level in the last 50-year of period. The DTMR and DNMR arrive 2 days early over central India, whereas DHMR appears to arrive 6 days early over west India in the recent decades. The results presented in this paper are supported by the statistically robust significance tests; suggest an apparent change in terms of the arrival of the rainfall attributes during the last half century. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The future vegetation–climate system over East Asia, as well as its dependence on Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), is investigated using a regional climate–vegetation model driven with boundary conditions from Flexible Global Ocean–Atmosphere–Land System Model: Grid-point Version 2. Over most of the region, due to the rising CO2 concentration and climate changes, the model projects greater vegetation density (leaf area index) and gradual shifts of vegetation type from bare ground to grass or from grass to trees; the projected spatial extent of the vegetation shift increases from RCP2.6 to RCP8.5. Abrupt shifts are projected under RCP8.5 over northeast China (with grass replacing boreal needleleaf evergreen trees due to heat stress) and India (with tropical deciduous trees replacing grass due to increased water availability). The impact of vegetation feedback on future precipitation is relatively weak, while its impact on temperature is more evident, especially during DJF over northeast China and India with differing mechanisms. In northeast China, the projected forest loss induces a cooling through increased albedo, and daytime high temperature (Tmax) is influenced more than nighttime low temperature (Tmin); in India, increased vegetation cover induces an evaporative cooling that outweighs the warming effect of an albedo decrease in DJF, leading to a weaker impact on Tmax than on Tmin. Based on a single model, the qualitative aspects of these results may hold while quantitative assessment will benefit from a follow-up regional model ensemble study driven by multiple general circulation models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We observe significant changes in the ENSO–Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) relationship in past three multidecadal epochs (early epoch: 1931–1960, middle epoch: 1961–1990, and recent epoch: 1991–2015) based on consistent correlation. The rainfall during early epoch was above normal, however, in other two epochs it was relatively dry. The ENSO–ISMR relationship and its changes are mostly pronounced in the monsoon core zone. During the early epoch, the effect of La Niña was more dominant by accounting higher number of La Niña events with higher values of Niño 3.4 index, which can be attributed to the surplus rainfall over most regions of India. The rainfall during the consecutive two multidecadal epochs is below normal and this may be attributed to the strong El Niño events. The dryness in the northeast region cannot be linked with ENSO events as it has insignificant relationship with the rainfall over this region. The weakening of Low Level Jet during the recent epoch can be a reason to reduce monsoon rainfall during recent periods. It is evident that the reduced moisture transport also accounts for the reduced precipitation. The changes in equatorial Walker and regional Hadley circulations during the three epochs show the same mode of variability and in phase with the changes in rainfall and other circulation related parameters. This study emphasizes the basin mode warming of world oceans and the increased frequency of El Nino events during the recent epochs linked to the climate change and its impact of ISMR. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Uncertainties in future changes of temperature and precipitation over the homogenous monsoon regions of India are investigated using the CMIP5 and CESM-LE datasets. The uncertainty is partitioned into epistemic (model) and aleatoric (internal variability) components for each season using the RCP8.5 scenario. The uncertainty in temperature change is dominated by epistemic uncertainty that increases over time. The uncertainty in precipitation change shows a more complex picture. Aleatoric uncertainty can remain quite large and comparable to epistemic uncertainty till the latter part of the twenty-first Century especially during the JJA and SON seasons. Much of the rainfall uncertainty is in the more arid Northwest region with the West Central region (part of the core monsoon area) exhibiting lower uncertainties. Considerable increase in rainfall is seen during the SON season indicating an extended monsoon season. During the DJF season aleatoric uncertainty is much larger than epistemic uncertainty over much of the century and shows considerable decadal scale variability. Using the 40-member CESM-LE ensemble to analyze the influence of ensemble size on aleatoric uncertainty we find that low ensemble sizes can lead to an underestimate of the uncertainty. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The study analysed the changes in the rainfall, extreme indices and their future projections over Rajasthan state based on observed gridded datasets (1976-2005) and simulated climate models. The climate projections from two global circulation models (HadCM3 and GFCM21) are used in statistical downscaling tool LARS-WG5 (Long Ashton Research Station-Weather Generator) to generate future precipitation. Further, the changes in precipitation pattern are investigated for the baseline period and the future periods based on seven extreme precipitation indices. Three future periods are used for the analysis i.e., early century period 2011-2040 (2025s), a mid-century period of 2041-2070 (2055s) and a late-century period of 2071-2100 (2085s). The study area is classified in three regions based on elevation range i.e., region 1 (< 250 m), region 2 (251-350 m) and region 3 (350-1700 m). Based on results, it is observed that there is a possible decrease in monsoon precipitation at many grid points for all the three future periods. The maximum decrease in rainfall (−142 mm) is observed in Banswara for the period 2041-2070, while the maximum increase (37 mm) is found in Alwar along with Churu 1 and Ganganagar during the period 2071-2100. Consecutive dry days (CDD) is predicted to increase in the west and south-west direction, while it shows decrease values in eastern and central part of the study area with the maximum value in Ajmer district. The pattern in PRCPTOT revealed maximum negative change (− 90 mm) in southern parts, and maximum positive change in the northern regions (62.2 mm) in Churu 1. Further, R20 and RX5day are projected to decrease in all three regions in future with several magnitudes. For RX1day, a maximum positive change is observed in eastern parts (Jhalawar, Sawai Madhopur) and negative changes in the southern part of the study area. In case of R95p index, both positive and negative changes are observed. Similarly, the SDII indicates a positive change in 2011-2040 and negative changes for the remaining two future periods. Finally, SDII shows maximum positive changes in the south and southeastern regions (Jhalawar, Chittaurgarh) and positive changes in various parts with spatial and temporal changes. The results will help water resources planner to understand the change pattern in various precipitation indices in water scarce state of India. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Present study has assessed different sources of uncertainties in multi-model precipitation projection using Global Climate Models (GCMs) from coupled model inter-comparison project phase five (CMIP5) experiment over seven homogeneous rainfall zones of India namely North Mountainous India (NMI), Northwest India (NWI), North Central India (NCI), Northeast India (NEI), West Peninsular India (WPI), East Peninsular India (EPI), and South Peninsular India (SPI). A relatively new method has been employed to separate out internal variability and climate change signal from precipitation time series before quantifying the uncertainties. In our method, signal has been defined as dynamic trend instead of considering a fixed trend line. Three different types of weighting namely equal weighting, independence based weighting and performance based weighting have been employed to assess the uncertainties of GCM projection over different zones. It has been found that ensemble with performance based weighting has produced smaller inter-model uncertainty but the patterns of temporal evolution of uncertainties have been quite irregular compared to other two ensembles. On the other hand, it has been noticed that bias correction using quantile mapping can effectively reduce the range of uncertainty in a systematic way. It has been observed that inter-model uncertainties over NEI has been relatively lower compared to other zones indicating more robust projection over this zone. A dynamic threshold on signal-to-internal variability ratio (S/I) has been used for estimating time of emergence (TOE) at 95% confidence level over each zone. TOE would be earlier in case of NEI and late in NMI. However no zone may experience TOE in first half of the present century. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study assess the performance of two versions of Regional Climate Model (RegCM) in simulating the Indian summer monsoon over South Asia for the period 1998 to 2003 with an aim of conducting future climate change simulations. Two sets of experiments were carried out with two different versions of RegCM (viz. RegCM4.2 and RegCM4.3) with the lateral boundary forcings provided from European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecast Reanalysis (ERA-interim) at 50 km horizontal resolution. The major updates in RegCM4.3 in comparison to the older version RegCM4.2 are the inclusion of measured solar irradiance in place of hardcoded solar constant and additional layers in the stratosphere. The analysis shows that the Indian summer monsoon rainfall, moisture flux and surface net downward shortwave flux are better represented in RegCM4.3 than that in the RegCM4.2 simulations. Excessive moisture flux in the RegCM4.2 simulation over the northern Arabian Sea and Peninsular India resulted in an overestimation of rainfall over the Western Ghats, Peninsular region as a result of which the all India rainfall has been overestimated. RegCM4.3 has performed well over India as a whole as well as its four rainfall homogenous zones in reproducing the mean monsoon rainfall and inter-annual variation of rainfall. Further, the monsoon onset, low-level Somali Jet and the upper level tropical easterly jet are better represented in the RegCM4.3 than RegCM4.2. Thus, RegCM4.3 has performed better in simulating the mean summer monsoon circulation over the South Asia. Hence, RegCM4.3 may be used to study the future climate change over the South Asia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Extreme rainfall events in the central Indian region are often related to the passage of synoptic scale monsoon low-pressure systems (LPS). This study uses the surrogate climate change method on ten monsoon LPS cases connected to observed extreme rainfall events, to investigate how sensitive the precipitation and runoff are to an idealized warmer and moister atmosphere. The ten cases are simulated with three different initial and lateral boundary conditions: the unperturbed control run, and two sets of perturbed runs where the atmospheric temperature is increased uniformly throughout the atmosphere, the specific humidity increased according to Clausius Clapeyron's relation, but the large-scale flow is unchanged. The difference between the control and perturbed simulations are mainly due to the imposed warming and feedback influencing the synoptic flow. The mean precipitation change with warming in the central Indian region is 18-20 %/K, with largest changes at the end of the LPS tracks. The LPS in the warmer runs are bringing more moisture further inland that is released as precipitation. In the perturbed runs the precipitation rate is increasing at all percentiles, and there is more frequent rainfall with very heavy intensities. This leads to a shift in which category that contributes most to the total precipitation: more of the precipitation is coming from the category with very heavy intensities. The runoff changes are similar to the precipitation changes, except the response in intensity of very heavy runoff, which is around twice the change in intensity of very heavy precipitation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The relationship between the large-scale circulation dynamics and regional precipitation regime in the Tibetan Plateau (TP) has so far not been well understood. In this study, we classify the circulation types using the self-organizing maps based on the daily field of 500 hPa geopotential height and link them to the precipitation climatology in the eastern and central TP. By virtue of an objective determining method, 18 circulation types are quantified. The results show that the large amount of precipitation in summer is closely related to the circulation types in which the enhanced and northward shifted subtropical high (SH) over the northwest Pacific and the obvious cyclconic circulation anomaly over the Bay of Bengal are helpful for the Indian summer monsoon and East Asian summer monsoon to take abundant low-latitude moisture to the eastern and southern TP. On the contrary, the dry winter in the central and eastern Tibet corresponds to the circulation types with divergence over the central and eastern TP and the water vapor transportations of East Asian winter monsoon and mid-latitude westerly are very weak. Some circulation types are associated with some well-known circulation patterns/monsoons influencing the TP (e.g. East Atlantic Pattern, El Niño Southern Oscillation, Indian Summer Monsoon and the mid-latitude westerly), and exhibit an overall good potential for explaining the variability of regional seasonal precipitation. Moreover, the climate shift signals in the late 1970s over the eastern Pacific/North Pacific Oceans could also be reflected by both the variability of some circulation types and their correspondingly composite precipitations. This study extends our understandings for the large-scale atmospheric dynamics and their linkages with regional precipitation and is beneficial for the climate change projection and related adaptation activities in the highest and largest plateau in the world. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Using observation-based analyses, this study identifies the leading interannual pattern of the Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) independent of ENSO and examines the potential mechanisms of its formation. For this purpose, an objective procedure is used to isolate the variability of the summer precipitation associated with the contemporary ENSO state and in previous winter-spring, which influence the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) region in opposite ways. It is shown that the leading pattern of these ENSO-related monsoon rainfall anomalies reproduces some major ISMR features and well represents its connections to the global-scale ENSO features in both lower and upper troposphere. On the other hand, the leading pattern derived from the precipitation anomalies with the ENSO component removed in the ISM and surrounding region also accounts for a substantial amount of the monsoon precipitation centered at the eastern coast of the subtropical Arabian Sea, extending into both the western Indian Ocean and the Indian subcontinent. The associated atmospheric circulation change is regional in nature, mostly confined in the lower to mid troposphere centered in the Arabian Sea, with a mild connection to an opposite tendency centered at the South China Sea. Further analyses show that this regional pattern is associated with a thermodynamic air-sea feedback during early to mid summer season. Specifically, before the monsoon onset, an anomalous atmospheric high pressure over the Arabian Sea causes excessive shortwave radiation to the sea surface and increases SST in May. The warm SST anomalies peak in June and reduce the sea level pressure. The anomalous cyclonic circulation generates regional convection and precipitation, which also induces subsidence and anticyclonic circulation over the South China Sea. The combined cyclonic-anticyclonic circulation further transport moisture from the western Pacific into the Indian Ocean and causes its convergence into the Arabian Sea. As a result, the regional cyclone is further enhanced and expanded to the Indian subcontinent in July. The substantial reduction of the solar radiation, however, cools down the sea surface and causes the decay of the circulation in August. This study suggests that the pre-monsoon Arabian Sea condition may be an important contributor to the ISM predictability from monthly to seasonal scales. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The variability of the Indian Ocean on interannual and decadal timescales is investigated in observations, coupled model simulation and model experiment. The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) mode was specifically analyzed using a data-adaptive method. This study reveals one decadal mode and two interannual modes in the sea surface temperature (SST) of the IOD. The decadal mode in the IOD is associated with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) of the North Pacific SST. The two interannual modes are related to the biennial and canonical components of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), consistent with previous studies. This study hypothesizes that the relation between the Indian Ocean and the North Pacific on decadal scale may be through the northerly winds from the western North Pacific. The long simulation of Community Climate System Model version 4 also indicates the presence of IOD modes associated with the decadal PDO and canonical ENSO modes. However, the model fails to simulate the biennial ENSO mode in the Indian Ocean. The relation between the Indian Ocean and North Pacific Ocean is further supported by the regionally de-coupled model experiment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Anomalous moisture circulation associated with the interannual variation of the India-Burma Trough was investigated to examine how the trough affects the moisture supply to Southwest China in winter. When the India-Burma Trough is strong, abnormal moisture is transported to Southwest China mainly via the southern boundary in the 750−650 hPa layer instead of via the western boundary, in contrast to the climatological situation. The abnormal moisture convergence is constrained in a thin layer along the windward side of the Tibetan Plateau. The moisture circulation response to the variation of the India-Burma Trough shows great baroclinicity over the Bay of Bengal (BOB). Northwesterly transport behind and southwesterly transport ahead of the trough appear only between 850 and 650 hPa, with anticyclonic moisture circulation underneath and cyclonic moisture circulation on top. Beyond the BOB, the moisture circulation response can be traced upstream with abnormal anticyclonic/cyclonic moisture circulations over the Mediterranean Sea and Arabian Sea/Red Sea above 850 hPa, and downstream with anticyclonic moisture circulation over the Philippine Sea near the surface. The activity of the India-Burma Trough is not a local phenomenon, but a part of the South Asian jet wave trains, and is modulated by the ENSO via the Philippine Sea anticyclone. Further investigation of the separate role of wind and moisture disturbances shows that the abnormal moisture flux is dominated by the wind disturbance, as is the abnormal moisture divergence in the lower level; while that in the upper level is dominated by both the wind and moisture disturbances. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Based on 15 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) phase 3 (CMIP3) and 32 CMIP phase 5 (CMIP5) models, a detailed diagnosis was carried out to understand what compose the biases in simulation of the Indian Ocean basin mode (IOBM) and its capacitor effect. Cloud-radiation-SST (CRS) feedback and wind-evaporation-SST (WES) feedback are the two major atmospheric processes for SST changes. Most CMIP models simulate a stronger CRS feedback and a weaker WES feedback. During boreal fall of the El Niño/Southern Oscillation developing year and the following spring, there are weak biases of suppressed rainfall anomalies over the Maritime Continent and anomalous anticyclone over South Indian Ocean. Most CMIP models simulate reasonable short wave radiation (SWR) and weaker latent heat flux (LHF) anomalies. This leads to a weak bias of atmospheric processes. During winter, however, the rainfall anomalies are stronger due to west bias, and the anomalous anticyclone is comparable to observations. As such, most models simulate stronger SWR and reasonable LHF anomalies, leading to a strong bias of atmospheric processes. The thermocline feedback is stronger in most models. Though there is a deep bias of climatology thermocline, most models capture reasonable sea surface height-induced SST anomalies. Therefore, the effect of oceanic processes offset the weak bias of atmospheric processes in spring, and the tropical Indian Ocean warming persists into summer. However, anomalous northwest Pacific (NWP) anticyclone is weaker due to weak and west bias of the capacitor effect. The unrealistic western Pacific SST anomalies in models favor the westward extension of Rossby wave from the Pacific, weakening the effect of Kelvin wave from the Indian Ocean. Moreover, the western Pacific warming forces the NWP anticyclone move farther north than observations, suggesting a major forcing from the Pacific. Compared to CMIP3, CMIP5 models simulate the feedbacks more realistically and display less diversity. Thus, the overall performance of CMIP5 models is better than that of CMIP3 models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Changing rainfall patterns have significant effect on water resources, agriculture output in many countries, especially the country like India where the economy depends on rain-fed agriculture. Rainfall over India has large spatial as well as temporal variability. To understand the variability in rainfall, spatial-temporal analyses of rainfall have been studied by using 107 (1901-2007) years of daily gridded India Meteorological Department (IMD) rainfall datasets. Further, the validation of IMD precipitation data is carried out with different observational and different reanalysis datasets during the period from 1989 to 2007. The Global Precipitation Climatology Project data shows similar features as that of IMD with high degree of comparison, whereas Asian Precipitation-Highly-Resolved Observational Data Integration Towards Evaluation data show similar features but with large differences, especially over northwest, west coast and western Himalayas. Spatially, large deviation is observed in the interior peninsula during the monsoon season with National Aeronautics Space Administration-Modern Era Retrospective-analysis for Research and Applications (NASA-MERRA), pre-monsoon with Japanese 25 years Re Analysis (JRA-25), and post-monsoon with climate forecast system reanalysis (CFSR) reanalysis datasets. Among the reanalysis datasets, European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Interim Re-Analysis (ERA-Interim) shows good comparison followed by CFSR, NASA-MERRA, and JRA-25. Further, for the first time, with high resolution and long-term IMD data, the spatial distribution of trends is estimated using robust regression analysis technique on the annual and seasonal rainfall data with respect to different regions of India. Significant positive and negative trends are noticed in the whole time series of data during the monsoon season. The northeast and west coast of the Indian region shows significant positive trends and negative trends over western Himalayas and north central Indian region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The main source of sea surface temperature (SST) variability in the Tropical Atlantic at interannual time scales is the Equatorial Mode or Atlantic El Niño. It has been shown to affect the adjacent continents and also remote regions, leading to a weakened Indian Monsoon and promoting La Niña-type anomalies over the Pacific. However, its effects in a warmer climate are unknown. This work analyses the impact of the Equatorial Mode at the end of the twenty first century by means of sensitivity experiments with an atmosphere general circulation model. The prescribed boundary conditions for the future climate are based on the outputs from models participating in the coupled model intercomparison project-phase V. Our results suggest that even if the characteristics of the Equatorial Mode at the end of the twenty first century remained equal to those of the twentieth century, there will be an eastward shift of the main rainfall positive anomalies in the Tropical Atlantic and a weakening of the negative rainfall anomalies over the Asian monsoon due to the change in climatological SSTs. We also show that extratropical surface temperature anomalies over land related to the mode will change in regions like Southwestern Europe, East Australia, Asia or North America due to the eastward shift of the sea level pressure systems and related surface winds. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this study, analysis of the long term climatology, variability and trends in the daily rainfall events of ≥5 mm [or daily rainfall (DR) events] during the southwest monsoon season (June-September) over four regions of India; south central India (SCI), north central India (NCI), northeast India (NEI) and west coast (WC) have been presented. For this purpose, a new high spatial resolution (0.25° × 0.25°) daily gridded rainfall data set covering 110 years (1901-2010) over the Indian main land has been used. The association of monsoon low pressure systems (LPSs) with the DR events of various intensities has also been examined. Major portion of the rainfall over these regions during the season was received in the form of medium rainfall (≥5-100 mm) or moderate rainfall (MR) events. The mean seasonal cycle of the daily frequency of heavy rainfall (HR) (≥100-150 mm) or HR events and very heavy rainfall (VHR) (≥150 mm) or VHR events over each of the four regions showed peak at different parts of the season. The peak in the mean daily HR and VHR events occurred during middle of July to middle of August over SCI, during late part of June to early part of July over NCI, during middle of June to early July over NEI, and during late June to middle July over WC. Significant long term trends in the frequency and intensity of the DR events were observed in all the four geographical regions. Whereas the intensity of the DR events over all the four regions showed significant positive trends during the second half and the total period, the signs and magnitude of the long term trends in the frequency of the various categories of DR events during the total period and its two halves differed from the region to the region. The trend analysis revealed increased disaster potential for instant flooding over SCI and NCI during the recent years due to significant increasing trends in the frequency (areal coverage) and intensity of the HR and VHR events during the recent half of the data period. However, there is increased disaster potential over NEI and WC due to the increasing trends in the intensity of the rainfall events. There is strong association between the LPS days and the DR events in both the spatial and temporal scales. In all the four regions, the contributions to the total MR events by the LPS days were nearly equal. On the other hand, there was relatively large regional difference in the number of combined HR and VHR events associated with LPS days particularly that associated with monsoon depression (LPS stronger than monsoon depression) days. The possible reasons for the same have also been discussed. The increasing trend in the monsoon low (low pressure) days post 1970s is the primary reason for the observed significant increasing trends in the HR and VHR events over SCI and NCI and decreasing trend in HR events over NEI during the recent half (1956-2010). This is in spite of the decreasing trend in the MD days. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Keeping the systematic bias of the climate forecast system model version 2 (CFSv2) in mind, an attempt is made to improve the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) rainfall variability in the model from diurnal through daily to seasonal scale. Experiments with default simplified Arakawa-Schubert (SAS) and a revised SAS schemes are carried out to make 15 years climate run (free run) to evaluate the model fidelity with revised SAS as compared to default SAS. It is clearly seen that the revised SAS is able to reduce some of the biases of CFSv2 with default SAS. Improvement is seen in the annual seasonal cycle, onset and withdrawal but most importantly the rainfall probability distribution function (PDF) has improved significantly. To understand the reason behind the PDF improvement, the diurnal rainfall simulation is analysed and it is found that the PDF of diurnal rainfall has significantly improved with respect to even a high resolution CFSv2 T382 version. In the diurnal run with revised SAS, the PDF of rainfall over central India has remarkably improved. The improvement of diurnal cycle of total rainfall has actually been contributed by the improvement of diurnal cycle of convection and associated convective rainfall. This is reflected in outgoing longwave radiation and high cloud diurnal cycle. This improvement of convective cycle has resolved a long standing problem of dry bias by CFSv2 over Indian land mass and wet bias over equatorial Indian Ocean. Besides the improvement, there are some areas where there are still scopes for further development. The cold tropospheric temperature bias, low cloud fractions need further improvement. To check the role of shallow convection, another free run is made with revised SAS along with shallow convection (SC). The major difference between the new and old SC schemes lies in the heating and cooling behavior in lower-atmospheric layers above the planetary boundary layer. However, the inclusion of revised SC scheme could not show much improvement as compared to revised SAS with deep convection. Thus, it seems that revised SAS with deep convection can be a potentially better parameterization scheme for CFSv2 in simulating ISM rainfall variability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The emerging need for extended climate prediction requires a consideration of the relative roles of climate change and low-frequency natural variability on decadal scale. Addressing this issue, this study has shown that the variability of the Indian monsoon rainfall (IMR) consists of three decadal scale oscillations and a nonlinear trend during 1901-2004. The space-time structures of the decadal oscillations are described. The IMR decadal oscillations are shown to be associated with Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), Atlantic tripole oscillation and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). The sea surface temperatures (SSTs) of the North Pacific and North Atlantic Oceans are also resolved as nonlinear decadal oscillations. The SST AMO mode has high positive correlation with IMR while the SST tripole mode and SST PDO have negative correlation. The trend in IMR increases during the first half of the period and decreases during the second half. The IMR trend is modified when combined with the three decadal oscillations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An ensemble prediction system (EPS) is devised for the extended range prediction (ERP) of monsoon intraseasonal oscillations (MISO) of Indian summer monsoon (ISM) using National Centers for Environmental Prediction Climate Forecast System model version 2 at T126 horizontal resolution. The EPS is formulated by generating 11 member ensembles through the perturbation of atmospheric initial conditions. The hindcast experiments were conducted at every 5-day interval for 45 days lead time starting from 16th May to 28th September during 2001-2012. The general simulation of ISM characteristics and the ERP skill of the proposed EPS at pentad mean scale are evaluated in the present study. Though the EPS underestimates both the mean and variability of ISM rainfall, it simulates the northward propagation of MISO reasonably well. It is found that the signal-to-noise ratio of the forecasted rainfall becomes unity by about 18 days. The potential predictability error of the forecasted rainfall saturates by about 25 days. Though useful deterministic forecasts could be generated up to 2nd pentad lead, significant correlations are found even up to 4th pentad lead. The skill in predicting large-scale MISO, which is assessed by comparing the predicted and observed MISO indices, is found to be ~17 days. It is noted that the prediction skill of actual rainfall is closely related to the prediction of large-scale MISO amplitude as well as the initial conditions related to the different phases of MISO. An analysis of categorical prediction skills reveals that break is more skillfully predicted, followed by active and then normal. The categorical probability skill scores suggest that useful probabilistic forecasts could be generated even up to 4th pentad lead. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The characteristic features of Indian summer monsoon (ISM) and monsoon intraseasonal oscillations (MISO) are analyzed in the 25 year simulation by the superparameterized Community Climate System Model (SP-CCSM). The observations indicate the low frequency oscillation with a period of 30-60 day to have the highest power with a dominant northward propagation, while the faster mode of MISO with a period of 10-20 day shows a stationary pattern with no northward propagation. SP-CCSM simulates two dominant quasi-periodic oscillations with periods 15-30 day and 40-70 day indicating a systematic low frequency bias in simulating the observed modes. Further, contrary to the observation, the SP-CCSM 15-30 day mode has a significant northward propagation; while the 40-70 day mode does not show prominent northward propagation. The inability of the SP-CCSM to reproduce the observed modes correctly is shown to be linked with inability of the cloud resolving model (CRM) to reproduce the characteristic heating associated with the barotropic and baroclinic vertical structures of the high-frequency and the low-frequency modes. It appears that the superparameterization in the General Circulation Model (GCM) certainly improves seasonal mean model bias significantly. There is a need to improve the CRM through which the barotropic and baroclinic modes are simulated with proper space and time distribution. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Atmospheric dynamical mechanisms have been prevalently used to explain the characteristics of the summer monsoon intraseasonal oscillation (MISO), which dictates the wet and dry spells of the monsoon rainfall. Recent studies show that ocean-atmosphere coupling has a vital role in simulating the observed amplitude and relationship between precipitation and sea surface temperature (SST) at the intraseasonal scale. However it is not clear whether this role is simply 'passive' response to the atmospheric forcing alone, or 'active' in modulating the northward propagation of MISO, and also whether the extent to which it modulates is considerably noteworthy. Using coupled NCEP-Climate Forecast System (CFSv2) model and its atmospheric component the Global Forecast System (GFS), we investigate the relative role of the atmospheric dynamics and the ocean-atmosphere coupling in the initiation, maintenance, and northward propagation of MISO. Three numerical simulations are performed including (1) CFSv2 coupled with high frequency interactive SST, the GFS forced with both (2) observed monthly SST (interpolated to daily) and (3) daily SST obtained from the CFSv2 simulations. Both CFSv2 and GFS simulate MISO of slightly higher period (~60 days) than observations (~45 days) and have reasonable seasonal rainfall over India. While MISO simulated by CFSv2 has realistic northward propagation, both the GFS model experiments show standing mode of MISO over India with no northward propagation of convection from the equator. The improvement in northward propagation in CFSv2, therefore, may not be due to improvement of the model physics in the atmospheric component alone. Our analysis indicates that even with the presence of conducive vertical wind shear, the absence of meridional humidity gradient and moistening of the atmosphere column north of convection hinders the northward movement of convection in GFS. This moistening mechanism works only in the presence of an 'active' ocean. In CFSv2, the lead-lag relationship between the atmospheric fluxes, SST and convection are maintained, while such lead-lag is unrealistic in the uncoupled simulations. This leads to the conclusion that high frequent and interactive ocean-atmosphere coupling is a necessary and crucial condition for reproducing the realistic northward propagation of MISO in this particular model. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The modern Asian monsoon system exhibits strong interannual variation, which has profound environmental and economical impacts. It has been well-documented that the mean Asian monsoon state underwent significant changes in the Late Miocene (11-5 Ma ago). But how the interannual variability of the monsoon climate evolved during this period is still largely unknown. In this study, a long-term simulation of the Late Miocene with a fully coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (ECHAM5/MPI-OM) at T31L19 resolution is used to explore the interannual variation of the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) in the Late Miocene. The regional climate model COSMO-CLM with a higher spatial resolution (~1° × 1°) is further employed to better characterize the spatial patterns of these variations. Our results show that although the mean ISM circulation is weaker in the Late Miocene runs, its interannual variation is as strong as or even stronger than at present and the dominant periods (~2.6-2.7 years) are shorter than at present (~3.4-8.4 years). It is noticed that while the extratropical influence on the ISM variability is weaker-than-present, a persistent El Niño-Southern Oscillation with stronger-than-present interannual variability is observed in our Late Miocene run. This may have maintained a strong interannual variation of the ISM with a shorter period in the Late Miocene. Our findings do not only improve our understanding of the Asian monsoon evolution in the Late Miocene, but also shed light on the future changes in the interannual variability of the ISM. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding the response of the South Asian monsoon (SAM) system to global climate change is an interesting scientific problem that has enormous implications from the societal viewpoint. While the CMIP3 projections of future changes in monsoon precipitation used in the IPCC AR4 show major uncertainties, there is a growing recognition that the rapid increase of moisture in a warming climate can potentially enhance the stability of the large-scale tropical circulations. In this work, the authors have examined the stability of the SAM circulation based on diagnostic analysis of climate datasets over the past half century; and addressed the issue of likely future changes in the SAM in response to global warming using simulations from an ultra-high resolution (20 km) global climate model. Additional sensitivity experiments using a simplified atmospheric model have been presented to supplement the overall findings. The results here suggest that the intensity of the boreal summer monsoon overturning circulation and the associated southwesterly monsoon flow have significantly weakened during the past 50-years. The weakening trend of the monsoon circulation is further corroborated by a significant decrease in the frequency of moderate-to-heavy monsoon rainfall days and upward vertical velocities particularly over the narrow mountain ranges of the Western Ghats. Based on simulations from the 20-km ultra high-resolution model, it is argued that a stabilization (weakening) of the summer monsoon Hadley-type circulation in response to global warming can potentially lead to a weakened large-scale monsoon flow thereby resulting in weaker vertical velocities and reduced orographic precipitation over the narrow Western Ghat mountains by the end of the twenty-first century. Supplementary experiments using a simplified atmospheric model indicate a high sensitivity of the large-scale monsoon circulation to atmospheric stability in comparison with the effects of condensational heating. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study examines the Indian summer monsoon hydroclimate in the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)-Department of Energy (DOE) Reanalysis (R2), the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR), and the Modern Era Retrospective-Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA). The three reanalyses show significant differences in the climatology of evaporation, low-level winds, and precipitable water fields over India. For example, the continental evaporation is significantly less in CFSR compared to R2 and MERRA. Likewise the mean boreal summer 925 hPa westerly winds in the northern Indian Ocean are stronger in R2. Similarly the continental precipitable water in R2 is much less while it is higher and comparable in MERRA and CFSR. Despite these climatological differences between the reanalyses, the climatological evaporative sources for rain events over central India show some qualitative similarities. Major differences however appear when interannual variations of the Indian summer monsoon are analyzed. The anomalous oceanic sources of moisture from the adjacent Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea play a significant role in determining the wet or dry year of the Indian monsoon in CFSR. However in R2 the local evaporative sources from the continental region play a more significant role. We also find that the interannual variability of the evaporative sources in the break spells of the intraseasonal variations of the Indian monsoon is stronger than in the wet spells. We therefore claim that instead of rainfall, evaporative sources may be a more appropriate metric to observe the relationship between the seasonal monsoon strength and intraseasonal activity. These findings are consistent across the reanalyses and provide a basis to improve the predictability of intraseasonal variability of the Indian monsoon. This study also has a bearing on improving weather prediction for tropical cyclones in that we suggest targeting enhanced observations in the Bay of Bengal (where it is drawing the most moisture from) for improved analysis during active spells of the intraseasonal variability of the Indian monsoon. The analysis suggests that the land-atmosphere interactions contribute significant uncertainty to the Indian monsoon in the reanalyses, which is consistent with the fact that most of the global reanalyses do not assimilate any land-surface data because the data are not available. Therefore, the land-atmosphere interaction in the reanalyses is highly dependent on the land-surface model and it's coupling with the atmospheric model. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We present a comprehensive assessment of the present and expected future pulse of the Indian monsoon climate based on observational and global climate model projections. The analysis supports the view that seasonal Indian monsoon rains in the latter half of the 21th century may not be materially different in abundance to that experienced today although their intensity and duration of wet and dry spells may change appreciably. Such an assessment comes with considerable uncertainty. With regard to temperature, however, we find that the Indian temperatures during the late 21st Century will very likely exceed the highest values experienced in the 130-year instrumental record of Indian data. This assessment comes with higher confidence than for rainfall because of the large spatial scale driving the thermal response of climate to greenhouse gas forcing. We also find that monsoon climate changes, especially temperature, could heighten human and crop mortality posing a socio-economic threat to the Indian subcontinent. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Tree-ring-width data of Himalayan cedar [ Cedrus deodara (Roxb.) G. Don] from 11 homogeneous moisture stressed sites in the monsoon shadow zone of the western Himalaya were used to develop a mean chronology extending back to ad 1353. The chronology developed using Regional Curve Standardization method is the first from the Himalayan region of India showing centennial-scale variations. The calibration of ring-width chronology with instrumental precipitation data available from stations close to the tree ring sampling sites showed strong, direct relationship with March-April-May-June (MAMJ) precipitation. This strong relationship was used to supplement the instrumental precipitation data back to ad 1410. The precipitation reconstruction showed extended period of drought in fifteenth and sixteenth centuries. Increasingly pluvial conditions were recorded since eighteenth century, with the highest precipitation in the early part of the nineteenth century. The decreasing trend in reconstructed precipitation in the last decade of the twentieth century, consistent with the instrumental records, is associated with the decreasing trend in frequency of western disturbances. MAMJ precipitation over the monsoon shadow zone in the western Himalaya is directly associated with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and NINO3-SST index of El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the leading modes of climate variability influencing climate over large parts of the Northern Hemisphere. However, the relationship between ENSO and MAMJ precipitation collapsed completely during 1930-1960. The breakdown in this relationship is associated with the warm phase of Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). A spectral analysis of reconstructed MAMJ precipitation indicates frequencies in the range of the variability associated with modes of NAO, ENSO and AMO. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]