3 results on '"Dubus, L."'
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2. A simplified seasonal forecasting strategy, applied to wind and solar power in Europe.
- Author
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Bett PE, Thornton HE, Troccoli A, De Felice M, Suckling E, Dubus L, Saint-Drenan YM, and Brayshaw DJ
- Abstract
We demonstrate levels of skill for forecasts of seasonal-mean wind speed and solar irradiance in Europe, using seasonal forecast systems available from the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S). While skill is patchy, there is potential for the development of climate services for the energy sector. Following previous studies, we show that, where there is skill, a simple linear regression-based method using the hindcast and forecast ensemble means provides a straightforward approach for producing calibrated probabilistic seasonal forecasts. This method extends naturally to using a larger-scale feature of the climate, such as the North Atlantic Oscillation, as the climate model predictor, and we show that this provides opportunities to improve the skill in some cases. We further demonstrate that, on seasonal-average and regional (e.g. national) average scales, wind and solar power generation are highly correlated with single climate variables (wind speed and irradiance). The detailed non-linear transformations from meteorological quantities to energy quantities, which are essential for detailed simulation of power system operations, are usually not necessary when forecasting gross wind or solar generation potential at seasonal-mean regional-mean scales. Together, our results demonstrate that where there is skill in seasonal forecasts of wind speed and irradiance, or a correlated larger-scale climate predictor, skilful forecasts of seasonal mean wind and solar power generation can be made based on the climate variable alone, without requiring complex transformations. This greatly simplifies the process of developing a useful seasonal climate service., Competing Interests: The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper., (Crown Copyright © 2022 Published by Elsevier B.V.)
- Published
- 2022
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3. Advancing climate services for the European renewable energy sector through capacity building and user engagement
- Author
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Lucien Wald, Laurent Dubus, Barbara Percy, Claire Thomas, Clare Goodess, Alberto Troccoli, Philip E. Bett, Stephen Dorling, Mélodie Trolliet, David Brayshaw, Thierry Ranchin, C. Acton, M. De Felice, L. Penny, Juan A. Añel, School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia, University of East Anglia, World Energy & Meteorology Council, UK Met Office, Environmental Physics Laboratory (EPhysLab), Universidade de Vigo, Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, UK, National Centre for Atmospheric Science, University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom, ENEA Climate Modelling Laboratory, EDF R&D (EDF R&D), EDF (EDF), Institute for Environmental Analytics, Centre Observation, Impacts, Énergie (O.I.E.), MINES ParisTech - École nationale supérieure des mines de Paris, Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL), Transvalor, Transvalor S.A., Goodess, C. M., Troccoli, A., Acton, C., Anel, J. A., Bett, P. E., Brayshaw, D. J., De Felice, M., Dorling, S. R., Dubus, L., Penny, L., Percy, B., Ranchin, T., Thomas, C., Trolliet, M., and Wald, L.
- Subjects
Renewable energy ,Atmospheric Science ,Process management ,010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences ,Download ,020209 energy ,Target audience ,3308 Ingeniería y Tecnología del Medio Ambiente ,02 engineering and technology ,Technology readiness level ,lcsh:QC851-999 ,01 natural sciences ,7. Clean energy ,Stakeholder engagement ,[SPI]Engineering Sciences [physics] ,Documentation ,Community of practice ,User needs and requirements ,Climate service ,Climate services ,Co-production ,Sectoral information system ,0202 electrical engineering, electronic engineering, information engineering ,lcsh:Social sciences (General) ,0105 earth and related environmental sciences ,Downstream (petroleum industry) ,Service (business) ,Global and Planetary Change ,business.industry ,Capacity building ,[SDE.PLAN]Environmental Sciences/domain_sde.plan ,2502 Climatología ,3322.05 Fuentes no Convencionales de Energía ,[SDU.STU.CL]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Climatology ,13. Climate action ,[SDE]Environmental Sciences ,lcsh:Meteorology. Climatology ,lcsh:H1-99 ,Business - Abstract
The development of successful climate services faces a number of challenges, including the identification of the target audience and their needs and requirements, and the effective communication of complex climate information, through engagement with a range of stakeholders. This paper describes how these challenges were tackled during the European Climatic Energy Mixes (ECEM) project, part of the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S), in order to deliver a pre-operational, proof-of-concept climate service for the European renewable energy sector. The process of iterative user engagement adopted in ECEM is described, from the initial presentation of the team’s first vision for such a service to support external stakeholders, through to evaluation of the final interactive tool for visualisation, data download and supporting documentation (the C3S ECEM Demonstrator). The outcomes of this evaluation are outlined, together with a retrospective reflection on the engagement and development process. The extent to which co-production and co-design were achieved in practice is assessed. The paper also highlights the distance travelled from the start to end of ECEM in terms of building capacity, developing a community of practice, and raising the Technology Readiness Level. The relevance of ECEM for the European climate services market is briefly considered, including the development of downstream commercial services which build upon the public C3S services. Keywords: Climate services, Sectoral information system, Renewable energy, User needs and requirements, Stakeholder engagement, Co-production
- Published
- 2019
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