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This paper aims to understand the impacts of global climate change (GCC) on the distribution of dangerous venomous snakes and snakebite risk in Mozambique, as a contribution to the enhancement of public health policies and snake conservation. We modelled current and future distribution of all 13 dangerous snakes occurring in Mozambique using ecological niche models to assess the likely impacts of climate change estimated as the difference between lost and gained climatic suitable area per species. In addition, we developed a normalized index of snakebite risk based on species diversity and species-specific traits for each time slice. We then superimposed our index to data on human population density to identify areas most prone to this burden. Our findings suggest considerable future reduction in climatically suitable area for nine out of 13 species, with species experiencing a north-south range shift and high rates of species turnover in northern Mozambique. We also found that GCC might alter the spatial patterns of snakebite risk in the country, with considerable increase in the future, affecting most areas in central and southern regions. This finding suggests that GCC will be harmful to venomous snakes in Mozambique with potentially adverse effects on public health. As GCC might induce the approximation of snake climatic suitable areas to highly populated areas, efforts are needed to increase human knowledge of snakebite prevention measures and increase awareness of the relative safety and attacking behaviour associated with some of the snakes studied here ensuring reduction in snakebites and improving species conservation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper explores what the San Diego region may look like in the year 2050 as projected changes in regional climate conditions take place. Focusing on interrelated issues of climate change, sea level rise, population growth, land use, and changes in water, energy, public health, wildfires, biodiversity, and habitat, the paper reviews the potential impacts of a changing climate by 2050 and makes recommendations for changes in planning processes at the local and regional levels to prepare for these impacts. The original research for this study was completed in 2008 by a team of 40 experts from the region including universities, nonprofit organizations, local governments, public sector agencies and private sector entities. This paper has now been updated with more recent research regarding climate change adaptation while preserving the integrity of the original research team's work. The simulated impacts discussed in this study are based on regional projections of climate change generated by scientists at Scripps Institution of Oceanography, employing three climate models and two emissions scenarios used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The impacts are discussed in the context of significant regional growth expected during the period as well as an aging population base. Key issues explored in the report include potential inundation of six selected low-lying coastal areas in San Diego due to sea level rise, potential shortfalls in water deliveries, peak energy demand increases due to higher temperatures, growing risk of devastating wildfires, migrations of species in response to higher temperatures in an increasingly fragmented natural habitat, and public health issues associated with extreme temperature events. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Motivated by growing heat-related morbidity and mortality in a warming climate, this paper assesses global heat health risk in order to understand the challenges to sustainability in the 21st century, using four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) of the HadGEM2-ES climate model and five Shared Socio-Economic Pathways (SSPs). Factors influencing global heat health risk were reviewed and risks were estimated based on heat hazard and socio-economic vulnerability. Hazard, vulnerability, risk and in particular, populations at different risk levels, were analyzed quantitatively at both global and regional scales. The results show that under an RCP8.5-SSP3 scenario, the world will be subject to the highest heat health risk, with rapidly increasing hazard levels and vulnerability over the century. Less developed or developing regions, such as Africa and Southeast Asia, are at the highest risk. The heat risk under an RCP2.6-SSP1 scenario will first increase and then fall, resulting in the lowest heat-health-risk pattern. We found that heat health risk will increase during the century under all RCP-SSP scenarios, with a higher frequency, higher intensity, longer duration and expanding spatial reach. Significant differences were observed across regions. The results make clear that the increasing risk poses significant challenges to sustainable human health. To meet these challenges, more attention and effective actions are urgently needed from both policy makers and individuals. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate is one of the most of influential natural factors on society and economy. One of the consequences of climate anomalies is the emergence of diseases and epidemics, especially in agrarian societies. The current concern with long-term climate change and its measurable consequences on health and disease gives new relevance to the question of how agrarian societies fared during sharp droughts and other climatic hardships, especially those subject to the disruptive processes of colonization. Not many studies have been done in Latin America that relate climate, epidemics and mortality from a historical perspective. This paper explores the association between climatic anomalies, epidemic events, and native demographic decline in the Alto Peru region in the highlands of Bolivia, in the late eighteenth and early nineteenth century. Studies of historic climatology indicate that adverse climate events became more frequent in the southern areas of South America during these centuries. There were extreme oscillations in precipitation, especially beginning in the 1750's which significantly impacted the largest group of people in late colonial Alto Peru: the indigenous population, whose vulnerability increased in face of local climatic anomalies and the resulting epidemiological risk. Both the quantitative and the qualitative analysis show associations between climatic and epidemic events. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Canadian contributions to International Polar Year (IPY) 2007-2008 were designed to improve the understanding of climate change impacts and adaptation and to gain insight into issues surrounding community health and well-being in Canada's arctic. Fifty-two research projects, involving scientists, northern partners and communities, focused on the arctic atmosphere and climate, cryosphere, oceans, sea ice, marine ecosystems, terrestrial ecosystems, wildlife as well as human health and community well-being. Key research findings on these topics are presented in this special issue of Climatic Change. This introductory paper presents an overview of the international and Canadian IPY programs and a summary of Canadian IPY results, including progress made in data management and capacity building. The legacy of IPY in Canada includes expanded international scientific cooperation, meaningful partnerships with northern communities, and more northern residents with research training. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper we present the initial results from a project to develop a population health model so we can extend the scenarios included in the IPCC's Special Report on Emission Scenarios to include population health status. Our initial hypothesis was that some climatic variable, particularly temperature, would have a significant impact on health outcomes. After experiments - using the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) data on Years of Life Lost (YLL) and Years Lived with disability (YLD) both by WHO region and by five degree latitude band as outcome variables - failed, we settled on life expectancy (LE) as the best measure of health status. We discovered that there is a solid relationship between LE and the GBD data from our first experiments, allowing us to extend the results from the LE model. The LE model used cross section data on LE for 91 countries and included temperature, per capita income, access to clean water and sanitation, literacy, simple medical attention, nutrition, per capita medical expenditure, electricity use per capita, and automobiles per capita as independent variables. While all were individually associated with LE, our model of choice included literacy, access to clean water and sanitation, simple medical attention, an indictor variable for Sub-Saharan Africa and purchasing-power parity per capita income. Note that neither temperature nor calories enter into this model. The fit between life expectancy, as predicted by this model, and actual life expectancy was quite good (R2=0.90), except for Rwanda, Uganda, and Madagascar; these countries accounted for one half of the unexplained variation in the model. The LE model was then used to develop trajectories of life expectancy in India for the four IPCC SRES storylines, where values for the independent variables were extrapolated based on the story line content. YLL and YLD estimates were created using the current cross relationship of these outcomes to LE. Given the lack of a general role for climate in our LE model, future work is planned to explore how to add detailed climate related impacts, to explore alternative nutritional variables, as well as extend the data set to allow a cross-section time-series approach. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Crop production in the tropics is subject to considerable climate variability caused by the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon that is likely to become even more pronounced during the twenty-first century. Little is known about the impact of ENSO-related drought on crop yields and food security, especially at the household level. This paper seeks to contribute to closing this knowledge gap with a case study from Central Sulawesi, Indonesia. Its main objective is to measure household resilience towards drought periods and to identify its influencing factors to deduce policy implications. Using indicators for consumption expenditures, we construct an index measuring household drought resilience; we then apply an asset-based livelihood framework to identify its determinants. Most of the drought-affected farm households are forced to substantially reduce expenditures for food and other basic necessities. Households' drought resilience is strengthened by the possession of liquid assets, access to credit, and the level of technical efficiency in agricultural production. The results suggest a number of policy recommendations, namely improvement of the farmers' access to ENSO forecasts, the provision of credit and savings products to facilitate consumption smoothing, and the intensification of agricultural extension in view of low levels of productivity found in agricultural production. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]