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Understanding how households, ranging from poor to wealthy differ in levels of vulnerability to hazards, such as floods and heat waves and knowledge of the mechanisms creating this difference is fundamental to enhancing resilience, fairly, across urban populations. A complex problem exists, however, in determining the relative influences of various attributes of wealth and vulnerability. In this paper we apply a livelihoods framework to characterize urban households by the resources or assets that comprise their livelihoods. We then combine a fuzzy logic approach with an analytic hierarchy process (ANH), to examine the relative influence of wealth (poverty), exposure, sensitivity and capacity on vulnerability to climate hazards in Mumbai, India. While research on urban resilience has grown considerably in recent years, this paper belongs to the few studies that have examined the relative influence of wealth and capacity on differences in vulnerability within and across household classes in cities. We find that under current climate change conditions, differences in wealth and capacity largely account for the high household vulnerability levels in Mumbai. While this pattern might change in a future (warmer) world, without a profound transformation, it is hard to imagine that the change would be for the better.

Indices assessing country-level climate and disaster risk at the global scale have experienced a steep rise in popularity both in science and international climate policy. A number of widely cited products have been developed and published over the recent years, argued to contribute critical knowledge for prioritizing action and funding. However, it remains unclear how their results compare, and how consistent their findings are on country-level risk, exposure, vulnerability and lack of coping, as well as adaptive capacity. This paper analyses and compares the design, data, and results of four of the leading global climate and disaster risk indices: The World Risk Index, the INFORM Risk Index, ND-GAIN Index, and the Climate Risk Index. Our analysis clearly shows that there is considerable degree of cross-index variation regarding countries’ risk levels and comparative ranks. At the same time, there is above-average agreement for high-risk countries. In terms of risk sub-components, there is surprisingly little agreement in the results on hazard exposure, while strong inter-index correlations can be observed when ranking countries according to their socio-economic vulnerability and lack of coping as well as adaptive capacity. Vulnerability and capacity hotspots can hence be identified more robustly than risk and exposure hotspots. Our findings speak both to the potential as well as limitations of index-based approaches. They show that a solid understanding of index-based assessment tools, and their conceptual and methodological underpinnings, is necessary to navigate them properly and interpret as well as use their results in triangulation.

Images are ubiquitous in everyday life. They are a key part of the communication process, shaping peoples’ attitudes and policy preferences on climate change. Images which have come to dominate visual portrayals of climate change (and conversely, those that are marginalised or excluded) influence how we interact with climate change in our everyday lives. This paper presents the first in-depth, cross-cultural and longitudinal study of climate change visual discourse. It examines over a thousand images associated with articles about climate change in UK and US newspapers between 2001 and 2009, a pivotal decade for climate change engagement. Content, frame and iconographic analyses reveal a remarkably consistent visual discourse in the UK and US newspapers. The longitudinal analysis shows how the visual representation of climate changed mid-decade. Before 2005, a distancing frame was common. Imagery of polar landscapes acted as a visual synecdoche for distant climate risk. After 2005, there was a rapid increase in visual coverage, an increase in use of the contested visual frame, alongside an increase in climate cartoons, protest imagery and visual synecdoches. These synecdoches began to be subverted and parodied, particularly in the right-leaning press. These results illustrate the rise of climate change scepticism during the mid-2000s. This study has implications for public engagement with climate change. It shows that the contested and distancing visual frames are deeply and historically embedded in the meaning-making of climate change. Additionally, it showcases the importance of visual synecdoches, used by newspapers in particular circumstances to engage particular audiences. Knowing and understanding visual use is imperative to enable an evidence-based approach to climate engagement endeavours.

Climate change risk assessments traditionally follow an analytical structure in which climate information is linked to impact models, and subsequently to damage models and decision-making tools. This structure generates a wide cascade of uncertainties that accumulate with each analytical step, consequently resulting in a wide range of risk estimates. This cascade of uncertainties can suggest that climate change risk assessments are not very useful in the context of decision-making regarding climate adaptation. However, many of the uncertainties revealed in traditionally structured climate risk assessments are not equally relevant to specific decisions, and presenting wide cascades of uncertainties can mask key decision-making parameters. In this paper, we show how the cascade of uncertainty relevant to decision-making can be reduced by applying an uncertainty decomposition approach, which, in study design, initially identifies the uncertainty cascade elements of particular relevance to the focal decision-making context. We compare the full cascade of uncertainties that emerge in a traditional risk assessment based on linked climate scenarios, impact modeling, and damage cost assessment with the uncertainty cascade generated by a detailed assessment of urban flooding risks where the focus is on key uncertainties in decision-making on climate change adaptation. A case study on flooding from extreme precipitation in the Danish city of Odense is used to decompose major sources of uncertainties in the climate modeling, the hydrological modeling, and the damage cost assessment. The decomposition approach reduces the focal range of damage cost estimates by 7–9 M EUR, which corresponds to a 20–24% reduction in the full uncertainty range without the application of the decomposition approach. Assuming that damage cost assessments can provide an indication of how much society should be willing to spend on climate adaptation, a decomposition approach as presented here could assist decision-makers in increasing the economic effectiveness when investing in protective measures.

Well-targeted scientific assessments can support a range of decision-making processes, and contribute meaningfully to a variety of climate response strategies. This paper focuses on opportunities for climate assessments to be used more effectively to enhance adaptive capacity, particularly drawing from experiences with the third US National Climate Assessment (NCA3). We discuss the evolution of thinking about adaptation as a process and the importance of societal values, as well as the role of assessments in this evolution. We provide a rationale for prioritizing future assessment activities, with an expectation of moving beyond the concept of climate adaptation as an explicit and separable activity from Bnormal^ planning and implementation in the future. Starting with the values and resources that need to be protected or developed by communities rather than starting with an analysis of changes in climate drivers can provide opportunities for reframing climate issues in ways that are likely to result in more positive outcomes. A critical part of successful risk management is monitoring and evaluating the systems of interest to decision-makers and the effectiveness of interventions following integration of climate considerations into ongoing strategic planning activities and implementation. Increasingly this will require consideration of path dependency and coincident events.We argue that climate adaptation is a transitional process that bridges the gap between historically time-testedways of doing business and the kinds of decision processes that may be required in the future, and that scientific assessments will be increasingly central to these transitions in decision processes over time.