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The effects of climate changes on the Massachusetts Water Resources Authority's water supply management techniques are discussed. Topics include financing of water resource planning, and the forecasted yields of the Quabbin reservoir.

Tarhule and Woo's application of the standard deviation of the long-term mean annual rainfall in the interpretation of their data could be misinterpreted by planners and practicing engineers. Moreover, a naive employment of the standard deviation to determine drought thresholds could result in catastrophic decisions on the basis of incorrect probability analyses regarding the likelihood of the exceedance of specific values for cumulative rainfall deficit.

Byline: Alexandros A. Ntelekos (1), Michael Oppenheimer (2), James A. Smith (1), Andrew J. Miller (3) Abstract: The average annual cost of floods in the United States has been estimated at about $2 billion (current US dollars). The federal government, through the creation of the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP), has assumed responsibility for mitigating the societal and economic impacts of flooding by establishing a national policy that provides subsidized flood insurance. Increased flood costs during the past two decades have made the NFIP operate at a deficit. This paper argues that our current understanding of climate change and of the sensitivity of the urban environment to floods call for changes to the flood policy scheme. Conclusions are drawn on specific examples from cities along the heavily urbanized corridor of northeastern United States. Mesoscale and global models along with urbanization and economic growth statistics are used to provide insights and recommendations for future flood costs under different emissions scenarios. Mesoscale modeling and future projections from global models suggest, for example, that under a high emissions scenario, New York City could experience almost twice as many days of extreme precipitation that cause flood damage and are disruptive to business as today. The results of the paper suggest that annual flood costs in the United States will increase sharply by the end of the 21st Century, ranging from about $7 to $19 billion current US dollars, depending on the economic growth rate and the emissions scenarios. Hydrologic, hydraulic and other related uncertainties are addressed and a revised version of the NFIP is suggested. Author Affiliation: (1) Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, USA (2) Department of Geosciences and the Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, USA (3) Department of Geography and Environmental Systems, University of Maryland Baltimore County, Baltimore, MD, USA Article History: Registration Date: 10/12/2009 Received Date: 06/03/2008 Accepted Date: 30/10/2009 Online Date: 13/01/2010

Byline: Petra Tschakert (1), Regina Sagoe (2), Gifty Ofori-Darko (2), Samuel Nii Codjoe (2) Abstract: This study explores the implications of recent extreme rainfall and flood events in the Sahel and the wider West African region for climate change adaptation. Are these events merely a temporal nuisance as suggested by the lingering desertification discourse or will more climatic extremes characterize the region over the next century? After reviewing incidences of severe rainfall and projected future climate variability, the paper examines local flood knowledge and decision-making, drawing upon a case study in Ghana. The data demonstrate that a variety of response strategies to flooding exist yet, knowledge of and access to climate forecasts and other learning tools are essentially absent. So far, floods have not triggered mass displacement although cumulative environmental deterioration is likely to cause environmental refugees. The paper recommends to lay to rest the desertification narrative, consider the possibility of both floods and droughts, and mobilize local memory for anticipatory learning and practical adaptation. Author Affiliation: (1) Department of Geography and the Alliance for Earth Sciences, Engineering, and Development in Africa (AESEDA), Pennsylvania State University, 315 Walker Building, University Park, PA, 16802, USA (2) Regional Institute for Population Studies, University of Ghana, P.O. Box 69, Legon, Ghana Article History: Registration Date: 08/12/2009 Received Date: 24/09/2008 Accepted Date: 30/10/2009 Online Date: 22/05/2010

Byline: Matthias Jonas (1), Gregg Marland (2), Wilfried Winiwarter (1,3), Thomas White (4), Zbigniew Nahorski (5), Rostyslav Bun (6), Sten Nilsson (1) Abstract: The assessment of greenhouse gases emitted to and removed from the atmosphere is high on the international political and scientific agendas. Growing international concern and cooperation regarding the climate change problem have increased the need for policy-oriented solutions to the issue of uncertainty in, and related to, inventories of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The approaches to addressing uncertainty discussed in this Special Issue reflect attempts to improve national inventories, not only for their own sake but also from a wider, systems analytical perspective--a perspective that seeks to strengthen the usefulness of national inventories under a compliance and/or global monitoring and reporting framework. These approaches demonstrate the benefits of including inventory uncertainty in policy analyses. The authors of the contributed papers show that considering uncertainty helps avoid situations that can, for example, create a false sense of certainty or lead to invalid views of subsystems. This may eventually prevent related errors from showing up in analyses. However, considering uncertainty does not come for free. Proper treatment of uncertainty is costly and demanding because it forces us to make the step from 'simple to complex' and only then to discuss potential simplifications. Finally, comprehensive treatment of uncertainty does not offer policymakers quick and easy solutions. The authors of the papers in this Special Issue do, however, agree that uncertainty analysis must be a key component of national GHG inventory analysis. Uncertainty analysis helps to provide a greater understanding and better science helps us to reduce and deal with uncertainty. By recognizing the importance of identifying and quantifying uncertainties, great strides can be made in ongoing discussions regarding GHG inventories and accounting for climate change. The 17 papers in this Special Issue deal with many aspects of analyzing and dealing with uncertainty in emissions estimates. Author Affiliation: (1) International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Schlossplatz 1, 2361, Laxenburg, Austria (2) Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, TN, USA (3) AIT Austrian Institute of Technology, Vienna, Austria (4) Canadian Forest Service, Victoria, BC, Canada (5) Systems Research Institute, Polish Academy of Sciences, Warsaw, Poland (6) Lviv Polytechnic National University, Lviv, Ukraine Article History: Registration Date: 22/06/2010 Received Date: 07/04/2010 Accepted Date: 15/06/2010 Online Date: 15/07/2010

Byline: Zbigniew Nahorski (1), Joanna Horabik (1) Abstract: Greenhouse gases emission inventories are computed with rather low precision. Moreover, their uncertainty distributions may be asymmetric. This should be accounted for in the compliance and trading rules. In this paper we model the uncertainty of inventories as intervals or using fuzzy numbers. The latter allows us to better shape the uncertainty distributions. The compliance and emission trading rules obtained generalize the results for the symmetric uncertainty distributions that were considered in the earlier papers by the present authors (Nahorski et al., Water Air & Soil Pollution. Focus 7(4--5):539--558, 2007 Nahorski and Horabik, 2007, J Energy Eng 134(2):47--52, 2008). However, unlike in the symmetric distribution, in the asymmetric fuzzy case it is necessary to apply approximations because of nonlinearities in the formulas. The final conclusion is that the interval uncertainty rules can be applied, but with a much higher substitutional noncompliance risk, which is a parameter of the rules. Author Affiliation: (1) Systems Research Institute, Polish Academy of Sciences, Newelska 6, 01-447, Warsaw, Poland Article History: Registration Date: 22/06/2010 Received Date: 05/01/2009 Accepted Date: 15/06/2010 Online Date: 14/07/2010 Article note: Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (doi: 10.1007/s10584-010-9916-4) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Byline: Miguel Esteban (1), Christian Webersik (2), Tomoya Shibayama (3) Abstract: The present paper develops a methodology for estimating the risks and consequences of possible future increases in tropical cyclone intensities that would allow policy makers to relatively quickly evaluate the cost of different mitigation strategies. The methodology simulates future tropical cyclones by modifying the intensity of historical tropical cyclones between the years 1978 and 2007. It then uses a Monte Carlo Simulation to obtain the expected number of hours that a certain area can expect to be affected by winds of a given strength. The methodology outlined has a range of applications, and the present paper shows as an example the calculation of the expected cost of mitigation of the increased downtime for Japanese ports by 2085 for a variety of economic growth scenarios. Author Affiliation: (1) Institute of Advance Studies, United Nations University, 1-1-1 Minato Mirai, Nishi-ku, Yokohama, 220-8502, Japan (2) Centre for Development Studies, University of Agder, Gimlemoen 17, Servicebox 422, 4604, Kristiansand, Norway (3) Department of Civil Engineering, Yokohama National University, 79-5 Tokiwadai, Hodogaya-ku, Yokohama, 240-8501, Japan Article History: Registration Date: 11/09/2009 Received Date: 24/06/2008 Accepted Date: 27/08/2009 Online Date: 03/11/2009

Byline: Lara C. Whitely Binder (1), Jennifer Krencicki Barcelos (2), Derek B. Booth (3), Meriel Darzen (2), Marketa McGuire Elsner (1), Richard Fenske (4), Thomas F. Graham (2), Alan F. Hamlet (5), John Hodges-Howell (2), J. Elizabeth Jackson (6), Catherine Karr (7), Patrick W. Keys (5), Jeremy S. Littell (1), Nathan Mantua (1), Jennifer Marlow (2), Don McKenzie (8), Michael Robinson-Dorn (2), Eric A. Rosenberg (5), Claudio O. Stockle (9), Julie A. Vano (5) Abstract: Climate change is expected to bring potentially significant changes to Washington State's natural, institutional, cultural, and economic landscape. Addressing climate change impacts will require a sustained commitment to integrating climate information into the day-to-day governance and management of infrastructure, programs, and services that may be affected by climate change. This paper discusses fundamental concepts for planning for climate change and identifies options for adapting to the climate impacts evaluated in the Washington Climate Change Impacts Assessment. Additionally, the paper highlights potential avenues for increasing flexibility in the policies and regulations used to govern human and natural systems in Washington. Author Affiliation: (1) JISAO/CSES Climate Impacts Group, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, 98195-5672, USA (2) Kathy and Steve Berman Environmental Law Clinic, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, 98195-3020, USA (3) Stillwater Consultants, Berkeley, CA, 94705, USA (4) Department of Environmental and Occupational Health Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, 98195-7234, USA (5) Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, 98195-2700, USA (6) School of Public Health and Community Medicine, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, 98195-7230, USA (7) Department of Pediatrics, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, 98195-6320, USA (8) College of Forest Resources, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, 98195-2100, USA (9) Department of Biological Systems Engineering, Washington State University, Pullman, WA, 99164-6120, USA Article History: Registration Date: 24/03/2010 Received Date: 04/06/2009 Accepted Date: 23/03/2010 Online Date: 27/04/2010

Byline: Rudiger Glaser (1), Dirk Riemann (1), Johannes Schonbein (1), Mariano Barriendos (2), Rudolf Brazdil (3), Chiara Bertolin (4), Dario Camuffo (4), Mathias Deutsch (5), Petr Dobrovolny (3), Aryan Engelen (6), Silvia Enzi (7), Monika Halickova (3), Sebastian J. Koenig (8), OldAich Kotyza (9), Danuta Limanowka (10), Jarmila Mackova (3), Mirca Sghedoni (7), Brice Martin (11), Iso Himmelsbach (11) Abstract: The paper presents a qualitative and quantitative analysis of flood variability and forcing of major European rivers since AD 1500. We compile and investigate flood reconstructions which are based on documentary evidence for twelve Central European rivers and for eight Mediterranean rivers. Flood variability and underlying climatological causes are reconstructed by using hermeneutic approaches including critical source analysis and by applying a semi-quantitative classification scheme. The paper describes the driving climatic causes, seasonality and variability of observed flood events within the different river catchments covering the European mainland. Historical flood data are presented and recent research in the field of historical flood reconstructions is highlighted. Additionally, the character of the different flood series is discussed. A comparison of the historical flood seasonality in relation to modern distribution is given and aspects of the spatial coherence are presented. The comparative analysis points to the fact that the number of flood events is predominately triggered by regional climatic forcing, with at most only minor influence on neighbouring catchments. The only exceptions are extreme, supra-regional climatic events and conditions such as anomalous cold winters, similar to that of 1784, which affected large parts of Europe and triggered flood events in several catchments as a result of ice-break at the beginning of the annual thaw. Four periods of increased occurrence of flooding, mostly affecting Central European Rivers, have been identified 1540--1600, 1640--1700, 1730--1790, 1790--1840. The reconstruction, compilation and analysis of European-wide flood data over the last five centuries reveal the complexity of the underlying climatological causes and the high variability of flood events in temporal and spatial dimension. Author Affiliation: (1) IPG, Institute for Physical Geography, University of Freiburg, 79085, Freiburg, Germany (2) Department of Modern History, University of Barcelona, 08001, Barcelona, Spain (3) Institute of Geography, Masaryk University, 611 37, Brno, Czech Republic (4) National Research Council of Italy, Institute of Atmospheric Sciences and Climate, Padua, Italy (5) Saechsische Akademie der Wissenschaften zu Leipzig, 04107, Leipzig, Germany (6) KNMI, Koninklijk Nederlands Meteorologisch Instituut, De Bilt, Netherlands (7) KleiA2, Padua, Italy (8) Department of Geosciences, University of Massachusetts, Amherst, MA, 01003, USA (9) Regional Museum, 412 01, LitomAAice, Czech Republic (10) Department of Meteorology, Institute of Meteorology and Water Management, Cracow, Poland (11) CRESAT-Universite de Haute-Alsace, 68093, Mulhouse, France Article History: Registration Date: 11/02/2010 Received Date: 20/10/2008 Accepted Date: 10/02/2010 Online Date: 02/03/2010

Byline: Dario Camuffo (1), C. Bertolin (1), M. Barriendos (2), F. Dominguez-Castro (3), C. Cocheo (4), S. Enzi (5), M. Sghedoni (5), A. Valle (1,15), E. Garnier (6,7), M.-J. Alcoforado (8), E. Xoplaki (9,10), J. Luterbacher (11), N. Diodato (12), M. Maugeri (13), M. F. Nunes (14), R. Rodriguez (2) Abstract: The paper reports the main results of the EU project Millennium in the Mediterranean area over the last 500 years. It analyses a long series of temperature from Portugal, Spain, France, Italy and Greece. The series are obtained by combining indices from documentary sources from AD 1500 to the onset of regular instrumental observations. There is an ongoing discussion regarding the proper way of combining documentary and instrumental data and how to translate accurately the conventional indices from -3 to +3 into modern units, i.e. degree Celsius. This paper produces for the first time a number of early instrumental observations, in some cases (i.e. Italy and France) covering 350 years, including thereby the earliest regular observations after the invention of the thermometer. These Mediterranean data show that anomalous temperatures usually had only a locally limited effect, while only few extreme events had a widespread impact over the whole region, such as the summer of 2003. During the period from 1850 to the present day, the Mediterranean temperature anomaly was close to the Northern Hemisphere in spring and summer, while it was warmer in autumn and winter. Compared with the long-term instrumental records (i.e. 1655 onwards), the recent warming has not exceeded the natural past variability characterized by heating--cooling cycles with no significant long-term trends. Author Affiliation: (1) National Research Council of Italy (CNR), Institute of Atmospheric Sciences and Climate (ISAC), Padua, Italy (2) Department of Modern History, University of Barcelona, Barcelona, Spain (3) Department of Earth Sciences II, Complutense University of Madrid, Madrid, Spain (4) Salvatore Maugeri Foundation IRCCS, Padua, Italy (5) KleiA2, Padua, Italy (6) Laboratory of Climate and Environmental Sciences, UMR CEA-CNRS, Saclay, France (7) Research Centre of Quantitative History, University of Caen, Caen, France (8) Centre for Geographical Studies, University of Lisbon, Lisbon, Portugal (9) Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research (OCCR) and Institute of Geography, Climatology and Meteorology, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland (10) The Cyprus Institute Energy, Environment and Water Research Center (EEWRC), Nicosia, Cyprus (11) Department of Geography Climatology, Climate Dynamics and Climate Change, Justus Liebig University, Giessen, Germany (12) GTOS/TEMS Network, Monte Pino Met Research Observatory, Benevento, Italy (13) Department of Physics, Universita degli Studi di Milano, Milan, Italy (14) History and Philosophy of Science Research Unit, University of Evora, Evora, Portugal (15) ARPAV, Meteorological Centre, Teolo, Padua, Italy Article History: Registration Date: 11/02/2010 Received Date: 11/08/2008 Accepted Date: 10/02/2010 Online Date: 26/02/2010

Byline: Esteve Corbera (1,2), Manuel Estrada (3), Katrina Brown (1,2) Abstract: The United Nations Framework on Climate Change (UNFCCC), at its thirteenth meeting in 2005 (COP-11), agreed to start a work program to explore a range of policy approaches and positive incentives for Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Degradation (REDD). This process was further encouraged in the 2007 COP-13 with the explicit consideration of REDD activities as a means to enhance mitigation action by developing countries in the future. This paper outlines the context of this ongoing political process by reviewing the science indicating that land-use change is a key contributor of greenhouse emissions globally and the assumptions that REDD activities may be competitive--in terms of cost effectiveness--in comparison to other mitigation options. The paper then examines REDD proposals submitted by Parties before COP-13 and identifies key economic, technological, methodological and institutional challenges associated with their implementation. These proposals are discussed in the light of major drivers of deforestation and ongoing efforts to address deforestation. This reveals another set of challenges which, if not taken into account, may undermine REDD effectiveness. The paper aims to aid the policy process and contribute to the best possible design of a REDD framework under the future climate regime. Author Affiliation: (1) School of International Development, University of East Anglia, Norwich, NR4 7TJ, UK (2) Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich, NR4 7TJ, UK (3) Overseas Development Group, University of East Anglia, Norwich, NR4 7TJ, UK Article History: Registration Date: 03/12/2009 Received Date: 18/03/2008 Accepted Date: 27/10/2009 Online Date: 14/01/2010

Byline: Donna Green (1), Jack Billy (2), Alo Tapim (3) Abstract: Although the last 200 years of colonisation has brought radical changes in economic and governance structures for thousands of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islanders living in remote areas of northern Australia, many of these Indigenous people still rely upon, and live closely connected to, their natural environment. Over millennia, living 'on country', many of these communities have developed a sophisticated appreciation of their local ecosystems and the climatic patterns associated with the changes in them. Some of this knowledge is recorded in their oral history passed down through generations, documented in seasonal weather calendars in local languages and, to a limited degree, transcribed and translated into English. This knowledge is still highly valued by these communities today, as it is used to direct hunting, fishing and planting as well as to inform many seasonally dependant cultural events. In recent years, local observations have been recognised by non-Indigenous scientists as a vital source of environmental data where few historic records exist. Similar to the way that phenological observations in the UK and US provide baseline information on past climates, this paper suggests that Indigenous observations of seasonal change have the potential to fill gaps in climate data for tropical northern Australia, and could also serve to inform culturally appropriate adaptation strategies. One method of recording recent direct and indirect climate and weather observations for the Torres Strait Islands is documented in this paper to demonstrate the currency of local observations of climate and its variability. The paper concludes that a comprehensive, participatory programme to record Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander knowledge of past climate patterns, and recent observations of change, would be timely and valuable for the communities themselves, as well as contributing to a greater understanding of regional climate change that would be useful for the wider Australian population. Author Affiliation: (1) Faculty of Science, Climate Change Research Centre, The Red Centre, UNSW, Kensington, 2052, Australia (2) Torres Strait, Elder, Poruma Island, Queensland, Australia (3) Torres Strait, Elder, Mer Island, Queensland, Australia Article History: Registration Date: 25/01/2010 Received Date: 19/03/2009 Accepted Date: 23/12/2009 Online Date: 13/02/2010

Byline: A. E. J. Ogilvie (1) Abstract: Historical climatology is the use of documentary evidence for the reconstruction of past climate. This paper gives a brief personal view of the development of the discipline from early times to the present day. Although several papers have been published on the importance of carefully analysing and evaluating all historical sources before they are used in climate reconstructions, several of them in Climatic Change, the use of unreliable, unanalysed data still persists. This may lead to false impressions of the climate of the past. In these times, when climate data are being used for political, as well as purely scientific ends, the cause of accuracy, as championed by Climatic Change, will best be served by emphasising, yet again, the importance of using only reliable data. A number of examples are given which illustrate these points. These include discussions on wine growing in England in medieval times, the Norse settlement of Greenland, and comments on the climate history of the past thousand years. Some of its edifices have been built on the sand, and these time will destroy yet the same materials may again be used, which, when reared on a rocky foundation, shall stand the test of time (Lowe 1870, p. 8, writing on meteorology). Author Affiliation: (1) INSTAAR, University of Colorado, Campus Box 450, Boulder, CO, 80309-0450, USA Article History: Registration Date: 26/03/2010 Received Date: 24/03/2010 Accepted Date: 25/03/2010 Online Date: 20/05/2010

Byline: Gwendolynne Young (1), Humberto Zavala (2), Johanna Wandel (1), Barry Smit (1), Sonia Salas (3), Elizabeth Jimenez (3), Melitta Fiebig (4), Roxana Espinoza (3), Harry Diaz (5), Jorge Cepeda (6) Abstract: Livelihoods in drylands are already challenged by the demands of climate variability, and climate change is expected to have further implications for water resource availability in these regions. This paper characterizes the vulnerability of an irrigation-dependent agricultural community located in the Elqui River Basin of Northern Chile to water and climate-related conditions in light of climate change. The paper documents the exposures and sensitivities faced by the community in light of current water shortages, and identifies their ability to manage these exposures under a changing climate. The IPCC identifies potentially increased aridity in this region with climate change furthermore, the Elqui River is fed by snowmelt and glaciers, and its flows will be affected by a warming climate. Community vulnerability occurs within a broader physical, economic, political and social context, and vulnerability in the community varies amongst occupations, resource uses and accessibility to water resources, making some more susceptible to changing conditions in the future. This case study highlights the need for adaptation to current land and water management practices to maintain livelihoods in the face of changes many people are not expecting. Author Affiliation: (1) Department of Geography, University of Guelph, Guelph, ON, N1G 2W1, Canada (2) Department of Civil Engineering, University of La Serena, La Serena, Chile (3) Department of Psychology, University of La Serena, La Serena, Chile (4) Department of Mathematics, University of La Serena, La Serena, Chile (5) Department of Sociology and Social Studies, University of Regina, Regina, Canada (6) Department of Biology, University of La Serena, La Serena, Chile Article History: Registration Date: 31/07/2009 Received Date: 12/09/2007 Accepted Date: 28/05/2009 Online Date: 10/10/2009

Byline: Myanna Lahsen (1) Abstract: The IPCC and other global environmental assessment processes stress the need for national scientific participation to ensure decision makers' trust in the associated scientific conclusions and political agendas. The underpinning assumption is that the relationship between scientists and decision makers at the national level is characterized by trust and interpretive synergy. Drawing on ethnographic research in Brazil, this article challenges that assumption through a case study of the policy uptake of divergent scientific interpretations as to whether or not the Amazon is a net carbon sink. It shows that the carbon sink issue became a site for struggles between important Brazilian scientists and decision-makers with central authority over the definition of the country's official position in international climate negotiations. In a geopolitically charged scientific controversy involving scientific evidence bearing on the Kyoto Protocol, Brazilian decision makers studied revealed critical distance from national scientists advancing evidence that the Amazon is a net carbon sink. As such, the decision-makers' interpretations were at odds also with dominant framings in the Brazilian media and closer to those of American scientists involved in carbon cycle research in the Amazon. Seeking to explain this disconnect, the paper discusses the divergent policy preferences of key scientists and decision-makers involved, and the correlations of these preferences with interpretations of the available scientific evidence. It identifies the continued impact of a national political tradition of limited participation in decision making and suggests that this tradition--while increasingly challenged by countervailing democratizing trends--is reinforced by key Brazilian decision makers' constructions of science as a medium through which rich countries maintain political advantage. Reflecting this, key Brazilian decision-makers justified rejecting national scientists' interpretations of the Amazon as a significant overall carbon sink by suggesting that the scientists' scientific training and associated foreign interactions bias them in favor of foreign interests, compromising their ability to accurately identify national interests. The paper situates its analysis in terms of theories of the science--policy interface and argues for greater attention to the role of culturally and politically laden understandings of science and the role of science in policy and geopolitics. Author Affiliation: (1) Center for Earth System Science, The National Institute for Space Research (INPE), Av. dos Astronautas, 1758 - Jd. Sao Jose dos Campos, Sao Paolo, 12227-010, Brazil Article History: Registration Date: 14/05/2009 Received Date: 14/02/2005 Accepted Date: 10/03/2009 Online Date: 28/07/2009 Article note: Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (doi: 10.1007/s10584-009-9610-6) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Byline: Valentina Bosetti (1,2,3), Carlo Carraro (2,3,4,5,6), Massimo Tavoni (1,2,3) Abstract: Preparatory talks to the next round of negotiations seem to indicate that a comprehensive agreement to mitigate climate change will not be easily attainable, despite the intentions of the US administration and the high expectations surrounding the Copenhagen meeting. One key reason is to what extent fast growing economies, and especially China, should take actions to reduce their growth of emissions. This paper argues that a turning point for international negotiations on climate change could be achieved if China were to agree on carbon obligations in the future. Results from modelling work suggest that the optimal investment behaviour is to anticipate the implementation of a climate policy by roughly 10 years, and that thus future commitments--if credible--could lead to significantly earlier steps towards carbon mitigation. If fast growing economies, and foremost China, believe in the long term objective of global stabilization of carbon concentrations, it might be economically rationale to sign on future targets, provided developed countries take on immediate action. Such a provision could be beneficial for both the developing and developed world. Author Affiliation: (1) Princeton Environmental Institute, Princeton, NJ, USA (2) Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei, Milan, Italy (3) Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici, Lecce, Italy (4) University of Venice, Venice, Italy (5) Center for Economic Policy and Research, Washington, DC, USA (6) CESifo, Munich, Germany Article History: Registration Date: 14/09/2009 Received Date: 28/07/2009 Accepted Date: 13/09/2009 Online Date: 21/10/2009 Article note: This paper is part of the research work being carried out by the Sustainable Development Programme of the Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei. The usual disclaimer applies.

Byline: T. M. L. Wigley (1) Author Affiliation: (1) Climate and Global Dynamics Division, NCAR, P.O. Box 3000, Boulder, CO, 80307-3000, USA Article History: Registration Date: 31/07/2009 Received Date: 18/08/2006 Accepted Date: 18/11/2008 Online Date: 29/08/2009 Article note: Editor's Note: Occasionally papers are published in less limited distribution journals that deserve to be more widely read. The following paper by Tom Wigley is one of these -- it presents some simple analyses of extreme event theory that lie on the boundary between textbook and scientific journal material and so tend to slip between the cracks. Since the original publication of this paper, interest in and understanding of extreme events has developed rapidly. To provide a bridge to the present state of the art, an updated review of the subject is given in the accompanying paper by Dan Cooley. Author's Note: I wrote this paper more than 20 years ago for publication in the Climatic Research Unit's in-house journal 'Climate Monitor'. This was at a time when the interest in possible anthropogenic changes in the frequency of extreme events was just beginning, and the paper was presented primarily as a pedagogical piece to explain certain relatively simple aspects of extreme-event theory such as risk and return period. In addition, I made some predictions of the likelihood of future extremes that have been borne out by, for example, the record-breaking hot summer of 2003 in Europe. These simple results have not appeared in the literature subsequently. The original paper was not refereed, but this reprint was refereed for publication in Climatic Change.

Byline: Daniel Cooley (1) Abstract: In his paper in Climate Monitor, TML Wigley uses basic probability arguments to illustrate how a slowly changing climate could potentially affect the frequency of extreme events. In the time since the paper appeared, there has been increased interest in assessing how weather extremes may be altered by climate change. Much of the work has been conducted using extreme value analysis, which is the branch of statistics developed specifically to characterize extreme events. This commentary discusses the advantages of an EVA approach and reviews some EVA techniques that have been used to describe climate change's potential impact on extreme phenomena. Additionally, this commentary illustrates basic EVA techniques in an analysis of temperatures for central England. In parallel to Wigley's analysis, a time-varying EVA analysis is compared to a stationary one, and furthermore, the trend from the EVA analysis is compared to the trend in means. Author Affiliation: (1) Department of Statistics, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO, USA Article History: Registration Date: 04/06/2009 Received Date: 30/11/2007 Accepted Date: 08/12/2008 Online Date: 04/08/2009

Byline: Warwick J. McKibbin (1,2,3), David Pearce (4), Alison Stegman (1) Abstract: Predictions of future temperature increases depend critically on the projections of future greenhouse gas emissions. Yet there is a vigorous debate about how these projections should be undertaken. This paper explores a range of methodological issues surrounding projecting greenhouse emissions over the next century. It points out that understanding future emissions requires a framework that deals with the sources of economic growth and allows for endogenous structural change. It also explores the role of convergence assumptions and the 'Castles and Henderson Critique' of the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) regarding use of Market Exchange Rates (MERs) rather than Purchasing Power Parity exchange rates (PPPs) to benchmark income differentials in the world economy. In the G-Cubed multi-country model, we show that emission projections based on convergence assumptions defined in MER terms, are 40% higher by 2100 than emissions generated using a PPP comparison of income differentials between economies. We support the argument presented by Castles and Henderson, that the use of MERs in the SRES represents a serious analytical error. It is not clear what this means for the SRES projections because the SRES is not transparent in its assumptions. In the G-Cubed model, the error leads to considerably higher emissions projections. Author Affiliation: (1) Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, College of Business and Economics, Australian National University, Canberra, ACT, 0200, Australia (2) The Lowy Institute for International Policy, Sydney, Australia (3) The Brookings Institution, Washington, DC, USA (4) Centre for International Economics, Canberra, Australia Article History: Registration Date: 28/05/2009 Received Date: 07/09/2005 Accepted Date: 26/05/2009 Online Date: 18/08/2009 Article note: An early draft of this paper was originally prepared for the Stanford Energy Modeling Forum workshop on Purchasing Power Parity versus Market Exchange Rates. It has benefited from discussions with Peter Wilcoxen, Barry Bosworth, Ian Castles, Alan Heston, Neil Ferry and many colleagues at the Stanford meeting. We are grateful to the Australian Greenhouse Office and Australian Research Council grant DP0988281 for financial support. This paper draws on a larger project with Peter Wilcoxen from Syracuse University and extends earlier work that was undertaken jointly with Peter Wilcoxen and Philip Bagnoli of the OECD. The views expressed in the paper are those of the authors and should not be interpreted as reflecting the views of the Institutions with which the authors are affiliated including the trustees, officers or other staff of the Brookings Institution.

Byline: Valentina Bosetti (1,2), Carlo Carraro (1,2,3,4,5), Alessandra Sgobbi (1,2), Massimo Tavoni (1,2,6) Abstract: Despite the growing concern about actual on-going climate change, there is little consensus on the scale and timing of actions needed to stabilise the concentrations of greenhouse gases. Many countries are unwilling to implement mitigation strategies, at least in the short term, and no agreement on an ambitious global stabilisation target has yet been reached. It is thus likely that international climate policies will be characterized by a high degree of uncertainty over the stringency of the climate objective, and that some countries might delay their participation to global action. What additional economic costs will this delay in the adoption of mitigation measures imply? What would the optimal short-term strategy be given the uncertainty surrounding the climate policy to come? Is there a hedging strategy that decision makers can adopt to cope with delayed action and uncertain targets? This paper addresses these questions by quantifying the economic implications of delaying mitigation action, and by computing the optimal abatement strategy in the presence of uncertainty about a global stabilisation target (which will be agreed upon in future climate negotiations). Results point to short-term inaction as the key determinant for the economic costs of ambitious climate policies. They also indicate that there is an effective hedging strategy that could minimise the cost of climate policy uncertainty over the global stabilisation target: a short-term moderate climate policy would be a good strategy to reduce the costs of delayed action and to cope with uncertainty about the outcome of future climate negotiations. By contrast, failing to curb emissions in the short term imposes rapidly increasing additional costs of compliance. Author Affiliation: (1) Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei, Corso Magenta 63, Milan, Italy (2) CMCC, Lecce, Italy (3) University of Venice, Venice, Italy (4) CEPR, London, UK (5) CESifo, Munich, Germany (6) Catholic University of Milan, Milan, Italy Article History: Registration Date: 09/06/2009 Received Date: 02/06/2008 Accepted Date: 06/03/2009 Online Date: 23/07/2009 Article note: This paper is part of the research work being carried out by the Climate Change Modelling and Policy Research Programme of the Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei and by the Climate Impacts and Policy Division of the EuroMediterranean Center on Climate Change. Financial support from the Italian Ministry of the Environment is acknowledged. The financial support of the EC 6FP TranSust.Scan project--Scanning Policy Scenarios for the Transition to Sustainable Economic Structures--is gratefully acknowledged. The authors are grateful for useful comments from participants to the Conference on the 'Economics of Climate Change and Sustainable Development', Chia, Italy, September 2007. The usual disclaimer applies.

Byline: Bin Sun (1), Brent Sohngen (1) Abstract: This paper examines the potential role of forest set-asides in global carbon sequestration policy. While set asides that protect forests from timber harvests and land-use conversion may alleviate concerns with permanence, and they may provide large ancillary environmental benefits, they may also lead to large leakage. This paper uses a global land use and forestry model to examine the efficiency of three crediting schemes for set-asides. The results show that if set-asides are integrated into a global forestry carbon sequestration program that includes a wide range of other management options, then 300 million hectares of land would be set-aside, and up to 128 Pg C could be sequestered in global forests by 2105. Under alternative policies that focus exclusively on set-asides, more forestland can be set-asides, up to 3.2 billion hectare, but these policies invite large leakage in the near-term, and in the long-run, they less net carbon is removed from the atmosphere. Specifically, leakage is estimated to be 47--52%, depending on the policy, and by the end of the century, up to 17% less carbon will be sequestered in all forests. Author Affiliation: (1) AED Economics, Ohio State University, 2120 Fyffe Road, Columbus, OH, 43210, USA Article History: Registration Date: 09/06/2009 Received Date: 17/09/2008 Accepted Date: 08/06/2009 Online Date: 23/07/2009

Byline: Marie-Caroline Badjeck (1,2), Jaime Mendo (3), Matthias Wolff (1), Hellmuth Lange (4) Abstract: Peru experiences recurrent ENSO (El Nino Southern Oscillation) events during which the Peruvian bay scallop (Argopecten purpuratus) undergoes substantial changes in its stock size. In the North of the country strong warm ENSO events are synonymous with floods and river discharges that negatively affect scallop biomass, while in the South increased sea surface temperatures lead to an increase in stock size. This paper explores how formal institutions respond to climate variability and resource fluctuations in the scallop fishery, and what role they play in the maintenance or erosion of resilience. The research shows that formal institutions are slow to learn, self-reorganize and respond to climate variability while fishermen's responses are spontaneous, ensuring a rapid process of individual adaptation. Institutional responses are mostly ex-post, and are not strongly shaped by past experience, thus eroding the resilience of the system. However, fishermen's responses sometimes lead to negative outcomes such as local stock overexploitation or 'invasion' of natural scallop habitats for scallop grow-out, and formal institutions play an important role in resilience building through the control of effort and entry in the fishery. In this paper causal loop diagrams are used to conceptualize the fishery system to highlight key variables and processes. The study thus provides the opportunity to explore the usefulness of causal loop diagrams and conceptual models combined with participatory approaches in the exploration of the resilience of a system. The case study also illustrates that individual adaptation, a feature of resilience, is occurring and will occur spontaneously, changing property right regimes and responding not only to climate variability but also market forces. In order to maintain and build resilience and engender positive management outcomes, formal institutions not only need to shape fishermen decision-making, they must also contribute to knowledge building as well as the adoption of innovative approaches. Author Affiliation: (1) Center for Marine Tropical Ecology (ZMT), Fahrenheitstr. 6, 28359, Bremen, Germany (2) The WorldFish Center, Jalan Batu Maung, Batu Maung, 11960, Bayan Lepas, Penang, Malaysia (3) Facultad de Pesqueria, Universidad Nacional Agraria La Molina, Av. La Universidad, La Molina, Apdo. Postal 456, Lima, Peru (4) Research Center for Sustainability Studies (artec), University of Bremen, Seminar-und-Forschungsverfugungsgebaude (SFG), Enrique-Schmidt-Strasse 7, 28359, Bremen, Germany Article History: Registration Date: 08/01/2009 Received Date: 22/02/2008 Accepted Date: 29/12/2008 Online Date: 22/04/2009

Byline: Christel Prudhomme (1), Helen Davies (1) Abstract: The first part of this paper demonstrated the existence of bias in GCM-derived precipitation series, downscaled using either a statistical technique (here the Statistical Downscaling Model) or dynamical method (here high resolution Regional Climate Model HadRM3) propagating to river flow estimated by a lumped hydrological model. This paper uses the same models and methods for a future time horizon (2080s) and analyses how significant these projected changes are compared to baseline natural variability in four British catchments. The UKCIP02 scenarios, which are widely used in the UK for climate change impact, are also considered. Results show that GCMs are the largest source of uncertainty in future flows. Uncertainties from downscaling techniques and emission scenarios are of similar magnitude, and generally smaller than GCM uncertainty. For catchments where hydrological modelling uncertainty is smaller than GCM variability for baseline flow, this uncertainty can be ignored for future projections, but might be significant otherwise. Predicted changes are not always significant compared to baseline variability, less than 50% of projections suggesting a significant change in monthly flow. Insignificant changes could occur due to climate variability alone and thus cannot be attributed to climate change, but are often ignored in climate change studies and could lead to misleading conclusions. Existing systematic bias in reproducing current climate does impact future projections and must, therefore, be considered when interpreting results. Changes in river flow variability, important for water management planning, can be easily assessed from simple resampling techniques applied to both baseline and future time horizons. Assessing future climate and its potential implication for river flows is a key challenge facing water resource planners. This two-part paper demonstrates that uncertainty due to hydrological and climate modelling must and can be accounted for to provide sound, scientifically-based advice to decision makers. Author Affiliation: (1) Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Maclean Building, Crowmarsh Gifford, Wallingford, Oxfordshire, OX10 8BB, UK Article History: Registration Date: 17/06/2008 Received Date: 01/06/2006 Accepted Date: 13/06/2008 Online Date: 17/09/2008

Byline: Rob Swart (1), Lenny Bernstein (2), Minh Ha-Duong (3), Arthur Petersen (1) Abstract: Dealing consistently with risk and uncertainty across the IPCC reports is a difficult challenge. Huge practical difficulties arise from the Panel's scale and interdisciplinary context, the complexity of the climate change issue and its political context. The key question of this paper is if the observed differences in the handling of uncertainties by the three IPCC Working Groups can be clarified. To address this question, the paper reviews a few key issues on the foundations of uncertainty analysis, and summarizes the history of the treatment of uncertainty by the IPCC. One of the key findings is that there is reason to agree to disagree: the fundamental differences between the issues covered by the IPCC's three interdisciplinary Working Groups, between the type of information available, and between the dominant paradigms of the practitioners, legitimately lead to different approaches. We argue that properly using the IPCC's Guidance Notes for Lead Authors for addressing uncertainty, adding a pedigree analysis for key findings, and particularly communicating the diverse nature of uncertainty to the users of the assessment would increase the quality of the assessment. This approach would provide information about the nature of the uncertainties in addition to their magnitude and the confidence assessors have in their findings. Author Affiliation: (1) Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (MNP), P.O. Box 303, 3720, Bilthoven, The Netherlands (2) L.S. Bernstein & Associates, L.L.C., 488 Kimberly Avenue, Asheville, NC, 28804, USA (3) Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Developpement (CIRED), Campus du Jardin Tropical 45bis Ave. de la Belle Gabrielle, F94736, Nogent-sur-Marne Cedex, France Article History: Registration Date: 28/05/2008 Received Date: 04/01/2007 Accepted Date: 03/04/2007 Online Date: 15/08/2008

Byline: Michel den Elzen (1), Niklas Hohne (2) Abstract: The IPCC Fourth Assessment Report, Working Group III, summarises in Box 13.7 the required emission reduction ranges in Annex I and non-Annex I countries as a group, to achieve greenhouse gas concentration stabilisation levels between 450 and 650 ppm CO.sub.2-eq. The box summarises the results of the IPCC authors' analysis of the literature on the regional allocation of the emission reductions. The box states that Annex I countries as a group would need to reduce their emissions to below 1990 levels in 2020 by 25% to 40% for 450 ppm, 10% to 30% for 550 ppm and 0% to 25% for 650 ppm CO.sub.2-eq, even if emissions in developing countries deviate substantially from baseline for the low concentration target. In this paper, the IPCC authors of Box 13.7 provide background information and analyse whether new information, obtained after completion of the IPCC report, influences these ranges. The authors concluded that there is no argument for updating the ranges in Box 13.7. The allocation studies, which were published after the writing of the IPCC report, show reductions in line with the reduction ranges in the box. From the studies analysed, this paper specifies the 'substantial deviation' or 'deviation from baseline' in the box: emissions of non-Annex I countries as a group have to be below the baseline roughly between 15% to 30% for 450 ppm CO.sub.2-eq, 0% to 20% for 550 ppm CO.sub.2-eq and from 10% above to 10% below the baseline for 650 ppm CO.sub.2-eq, in 2020. These ranges apply to the whole group of non-Annex I countries and may differ substantially per country. The most important factor influencing these ranges above, for non-Annex I countries, and in the box, for Annex I countries, is new information on higher baseline emissions (e.g. that of Sheehan, Climatic Change, 2008, this issue). Other factors are the assumed global emission level in 2020 and assumptions on land-use change and forestry emissions. The current, slow pace in climate policy and the steady increase in global emissions, make it almost unfeasible to reach relatively low global emission levels in 2020 needed to meet 450 ppm CO.sub.2-eq, as was first assumed feasible by some studies, 5 years ago. Author Affiliation: (1) Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, P.O. Box 303, 3720 AH, Bilthoven, The Netherlands (2) Ecofys Germany GmbH, Cologne, Germany Article History: Registration Date: 22/07/2008 Received Date: 20/05/2008 Accepted Date: 27/06/2008 Online Date: 11/09/2008

Byline: Gaston R. Demaree (1), Astrid E. J. Ogilvie (2) Abstract: The history of instrumental meteorological observations in Labrador/Nunatsiavut, Canada, began in August 1771 when the Unitas Fratrum, also known as the 'Moravian Brethren', established a mission among the Inuit on the Labrador coast. The Brethren named this place 'Nain' after a city mentioned in the New Testament of the Bible. The missionaries included learned men, trained in the natural sciences, and in October of that same year they began to undertake instrumental meteorological observations. These observations have been continued, in one form or another, to the present day. As will be shown in this paper, the year 1771 thus marks the beginning of a long time series of meteorological observations from Labrador. The authors of this paper are currently researching the climatic history of the Labrador/Nunatsiavut region by tracing the meteorological observations of the Moravian missionaries to be found in scientific publications of the eighteenth, nineteenth and twentieth centuries. As will be demonstrated, the records of these observations in Labrador go through several stages from being almost completely forgotten, to being published and republished in the main international meteorological journals. In this latter context, it may be said that the channels for the distribution of this knowledge are still being charted this process involves tracking contacts between the Moravian Church and their sympathisers, as well as between the Church and contemporary scientists. This paper seeks to elucidate knowledge of these old records by placing them in the context of the research field of historical climatology and, at the same time, to honour the Moravian missionary observers for their valuable contribution to knowledge of past variations in climate. Author Affiliation: (1) Royal Meteorological Institute, Ringlaan 3, 1180, Brussels, Belgium (2) INSTAAR, University of Colorado, Campus Box 450, Boulder, CO, 80309-0450, USA Article History: Registration Date: 21/03/2008 Received Date: 19/09/2006 Accepted Date: 12/03/2008 Online Date: 19/06/2008

Byline: Charles Kolstad (1), Alistair Ulph (2) Abstract: In this paper we synthesise and extend our earlier analysis (Ulph, J Risk Uncertain 29(1):53--73, 2004 Kolstad, J Environ Econ Manage 53(1):68--79, 2007) of the formation of an International Environmental Agreement (IEA) under uncertainty about the damages that might be caused by climate change and different models of learning, in which better information about these damage costs become available. Our results are generally pessimistic: the possibility of either complete or partial learning generally reduces the level of global welfare that can be achieved from forming an IEA. This suggests that information can have negative value. This may seem strange, since for a single decision-maker information cannot have negative value, because it can always be ignored. However in this case there are strategic interactions between a number of decision-makers responding to information, and it is these strategic interactions which can give information a negative value. Author Affiliation: (1) Department of Economics and Bren School of Environmental Science and Management, University of California, Santa Barbara, CA, USA (2) Faculty of Humanities, University of Manchester, Manchester, England Article History: Registration Date: 24/01/2008 Received Date: 12/01/2007 Accepted Date: 13/12/2007 Online Date: 14/03/2008 Article note: An earlier version of this paper was presented at the conference 'Learning and Climate Change', IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria, 10--11 April 2006.

Byline: Susanne C. Moser (1), Amy Lynd Luers (2) Abstract: In this paper we propose a framework for evaluating how prepared California resource managers are for risks of continued climate change. The framework presented suggests three critical dimensions of preparedness -- awareness of climate-related risks, analytic capacity to translate such climate risks information into specific planning and management activities, and the extent of actions taken to address the risks. We illustrate the application of this framework in this paper through preliminary research of California coastal managers where we identify limited awareness of climate-change related risks, limited analytic capacity, and significant constraints on the abilities of institutions and individuals to take adaptation actions. Our analysis suggests that for California to realize its significant adaptive capacity and be able to manage the unavoidable impacts of climate change, resource managers need to be engaged more effectively in future discussions of managing climate risks in the state. Author Affiliation: (1) Institute for the Study of Society and Environment, National Center for Atmospheric Research, P.O. Box 3000, Boulder, CO, 80307, USA (2) Amy Lynd Luers, Google.Org, 345 Spear St., 4th Floor, San Francisco, CA, 94105, USA Article History: Registration Date: 28/11/2007 Received Date: 02/08/2006 Accepted Date: 05/10/2007 Online Date: 26/01/2008

Byline: Guido Franco (1), Dan Cayan (2), Amy Luers (3), Michael Hanemann (4), Bart Croes (5) Abstract: Over the last few years, California has passed some of the strongest climate policies in the USA. These new policies have been motivated in part by increasing concerns over the risk of climate-related impacts and facilitated by the state's existing framework of energy and air quality policies. This paper presents an overview of the evolution of this increased awareness of climate change issues by policy makers brought about by the strong link between climate science and policy in the state. The State Legislature initiated this link in 1988 with the mandate to prepare an assessment of the potential consequences of climate change to California. Further interactions between science and policy has more recently resulted, in summer of 2006, in the passage of Assembly Bill 32, a law that limits future greenhouse gas emissions in California. This paper discusses the important role played by a series of state and regional climate assessments beginning in 1988 and, in particular, the lessons learned from a recently completed study known as the Scenarios Project. Author Affiliation: (1) Public Interest Energy Research Program, California Energy Commission, 1516 Ninth St., Sacramento, CA, 95814, USA (2) Climate Research Division, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, 9500 Gilman Drive, La Jolla, CA, 92093, USA (3) California Climate Program, Union of Concerned Scientists, 2397 Shattuck Ave., Ste. 203, Berkeley, CA, 94704, USA (4) Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, University of California, Berkeley, 207 Gianni Hall, Berkeley, CA, 94720, USA (5) Research Division, Air Resources Board, 1001 I Street, Sacramento, CA, 95812, USA Article History: Registration Date: 29/10/2007 Received Date: 05/12/2006 Accepted Date: 05/10/2007 Online Date: 22/12/2007

Byline: Hedwig Roderfeld (1), Eleanor Blyth (2), Rutger Dankers (3), Geir Huse (4), Dag Slagstad (5), Ingrid Ellingsen (5), Annett Wolf (6), Manfred A. Lange (1) Abstract: The EU project BALANCE (Global Change Vulnerabilities in the Barents region: Linking Arctic Natural Resources, Climate Change and Economies) aims to assess vulnerability to climate change in the Barents Sea Region. As a prerequisite the potential impact of climate change on selected ecosystems of the study area has to be quantified, which is the subject of the present paper. A set of ecosystem models was run to generate baseline and future scenarios for 1990, 2020, 2050 and 2080. The models are based on data from the Regional Climate Model (REMO), driven by a GCM which in turn is forced by the IPCC-B2 scenario. The climate change is documented by means of the Koppen climate classification. Since the multitude of models requires the effect of climate change on individual terrestrial and marine systems to be integrated, the paper concentrates on a standardised visualisation of potential impacts by use of a Geographical Information System for the timeslices 2050 and 2080. The resulting maps show that both terrestrial and marine ecosystems of the Barents region will undergo significant changes until both 2050 and 2080. Author Affiliation: (1) Institute for Geophysics, University of Munster, Corrensstrasse 24, 48149, Munster, Germany (2) Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Wallingford, OX10 8BB, UK (3) Institute for Environment and Sustainability, JRC European Commission, 21020, Ispra, (VA), Italy (4) Institute of Marine Research, P.O. Box 1870, Nordnes, 5817, Bergen, Norway (5) SINTEF Fisheries and Aquaculture, 465, Trondheim, Norway (6) Forest Ecology, Universitatstrasse 16, ETH-Zentrum, CHN, G 77, 8092, Zurich, Switzerland Article History: Registration Date: 05/10/2007 Received Date: 06/07/2006 Accepted Date: 03/10/2007 Online Date: 29/01/2008

Byline: E. Carina H. Keskitalo (1) Abstract: Climate change is likely to present new and substantially unpredictable challenges to human societies. The prospect is of particular concern at the local and regional levels, since vulnerability and adaptive capacity are location-specific and many decisions regarding climate-induced risks are made at those levels. In this light, one is compelled to survey stakeholders' understandings of their situation and perceived problems. Assessments should also include the context of other ongoing changes, such as globalisation, that will impact communities and exacerbate their vulnerabilities. This paper presents an assessment of vulnerability and adaptive capacity in the forestry sector in the Pite River basin in northern Sweden. The study was carried out using a multi-method design encompassing literature surveys, interviews with stakeholders, and stakeholder meetings. The paper concludes that while climate change will have an impact on the region, its effect will be superseded by that of broader socio-economic changes. The results illustrate the need to understand local and regional perceptions of adaptation in formulating appropriate policy measures. Author Affiliation: (1) Department of Political Science, Umea University, 901 87, Umea, Sweden Article History: Registration Date: 04/10/2007 Received Date: 06/07/2006 Accepted Date: 03/10/2007 Online Date: 20/11/2007

Byline: Manfred A. Lange (1) Abstract: Global climate change and its regional manifestation will result in significant impacts in the European North. However, in order to determine the consequences of such impacts, a holistic, integrated assessment is needed. This paper sets the stage for the remainder of this volume by describing an attempt to derive such an assessment for the Barents Sea Region through the EU-funded BALANCE project. The paper explains some of the major methodologies employed in the study. It also provides insight into major results obtained and attempts to answer a number of overarching questions. It will be shown that climate change does present a significant threat to environmental and societal integrity in the study region. However, it will also be shown that stakeholders regard other drivers of future changes (economical, political developments) at least as equally important for their personal lives. Author Affiliation: (1) Institute for Geophysics, University of Munster, Corrensstrasse 24, 48149, Munster, Germany (2) Energy, Environment and Water Research Center, The Cyprus Institute, PO Box 22745, CY 1523, Nicosia, Cyprus Article History: Registration Date: 04/10/2007 Received Date: 10/08/2006 Accepted Date: 03/10/2007 Online Date: 22/12/2007

Byline: Niels J. Schenk (1), Sander M. Lensink (1) Abstract: The issue of climate change required the development of the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) by the IPCC. The complexity of the subject and the unique science-policy relation resulted in confusion and discussions appeared in popular media like The Economist. This paper reviews scenario literature and SRES, identifies the most vulnerable elements in the communication of SRES. In the communication of GHG emission scenarios through SRES, the weaknesses that have been identified by the authors of this paper are the normative character of climate change assessment, the plausibility of the scenarios, and the risk of simplification of complex messages. The causes of these communicative issues have been identified as the intrinsic difficulties of interdisciplinary science, the uniqueness of the science-policy relation, and the need for a high degree of transparency. This paper suggests improving future communication of complex messages from scientists to their audience by means of clear reasoning when communicating with non-scientists, explicitly normative emission scenarios, and increased stakeholder participation in scenario development. Author Affiliation: (1) Centre for Energy and Environmental Studies (IVEM), University of Groningen, Nijenborg 4, Groningen, 9747 AG, The Netherlands Article History: Registration Date: 10/10/2006 Received Date: 07/03/2005 Accepted Date: 09/10/2006 Online Date: 23/01/2007 Article note: Based on a presentation at the 'IIASA-YSSP uncertainty seminars,' 22 July 2004, and the discussions thereafter.

Byline: Jens H. Christensen (1), Timothy R. Carter (2), Markku Rummukainen (3), Georgios Amanatidis (4) Abstract: This special issue of Climatic Change contains a series of research articles documenting co-ordinated work carried out within a 3-year European Union project 'Prediction of Regional scenarios and Uncertainties for Defining European Climate change risks and Effects' (PRUDENCE). The main objective of the PRUDENCE project was to provide high resolution climate change scenarios for Europe at the end of the twenty-first century by means of dynamical downscaling (regional climate modelling) of global climate simulations. The first part of the issue comprises seven overarching PRUDENCE papers on: (1) the design of the model simulations and analyses of climate model performance, (2 and 3) evaluation and intercomparison of simulated climate changes, (4 and 5) specialised analyses of impacts on water resources and on other sectors including agriculture, ecosystems, energy, and transport, (6) investigation of extreme weather events and (7) implications of the results for policy. A paper summarising the related MICE (Modelling the Impact of Climate Extremes) project is also included. The second part of the issue contains 12 articles that focus in more detail on some of the themes summarised in the overarching papers. The PRUDENCE results represent the first comprehensive, continental-scale intercomparison and evaluation of high resolution climate models and their applications, bringing together climate modelling, impact research and social sciences expertise on climate change. Author Affiliation: (1) Danish Meteorological Institute, Lyngbyvej 100, 2100, Copenhagen A, Denmark (2) Finnish Environment Institute (SYKE), Box 140, 00251, Helsinki, Finland (3) Rossby Centre, SMHI, 60176, Norrkoping, Sweden (4) European Commision, CDMA 3/128, B-1049, Brussels, Belgium Article History: Registration Date: 17/11/2006 Received Date: 15/02/2005 Accepted Date: 17/10/2006 Online Date: 17/03/2007

Byline: Robert Mendelsohn (1), Alan Basist (2), Ariel Dinar (3), Pradeep Kurukulasuriya (4), Claude Williams (5) Abstract: This paper measures the influence of climate normals (average long-term surface wetness and temperature) and interannual climate variance on farms in the United States and Brazil using satellite data. The paper finds that just climate normals or just climate variance variables can explain both net revenues and how much land is used for cropland. However, because they are correlated with each other, it is important to include both normals and variance in the same statistical model to get accurate measures of their individual contribution to farm outcomes. In general, higher climate variance increases the probability that land is used for cropland in both countries and higher temperatures reduce both cropland and land values. Other annual effects were not consistent across the two countries. Author Affiliation: (1) Yale FES, 230 Prospect Street, New Haven, CT, 06511, USA (2) Commodity Hedgers Inc, 1 Heather Downs, Alexander, NC, 28700, USA (3) World Bank, 1818 H Street, NW, Washington, DC, 20433, USA (4) Yale FES, 210 Prospect Street, New Haven, CT, 06511, USA (5) National Climatic Data Center, 151 Patten Avenue, Asheville, NC, 28801, USA Article History: Registration Date: 22/08/2006 Received Date: 23/02/2004 Accepted Date: 23/05/2006 Online Date: 13/01/2007

Byline: Robert Mendelsohn (1) Abstract: One of the banes of farming is the frequent complete loss of crops due to adverse weather conditions or pests. In this paper, we explore what causes catastrophic crop failures. The study demonstrates that 39% of the variation in expected crop failure rates across the United States can be explained by soils and climate. The analysis shows that precipitation, soils, and especially temperature all explain average crop failure rates. Surprisingly, the analysis did not suggest that annual warming would increase crop failure rates. However, decreases in annual precipitation or increases in interannual or diurnal variation would all be harmful to crops. Author Affiliation: (1) Yale FES, 230 Prospect Street, New Haven, CT, 06511, USA Article History: Registration Date: 25/08/2005 Received Date: 23/02/2004 Accepted Date: 20/07/2005 Online Date: 17/01/2007 Article note: I would like to thank the referees of this paper for their valuable remarks when reading earlier drafts of this paper.

Byline: Sian Mooney (1), Ken Gerow (2), John Antle (3), Susan Capalbo (3), Keith Paustian (4) Abstract: Several studies have suggested that geostatistical techniques could be employed to reduce overall transactions costs associated with contracting for soil C credits by increasing the efficacy of sampling protocols used to measure C-credits. In this paper, we show how information about the range of spatial autocorrelation can be used in a measurement scheme to reduce the size of the confidence intervals that bound estimates of the mean number of C-credits generated per hectare. A tighter confidence interval around the mean number of C-credits sequestered could increase producer payments for each hectare enrolled in a contract to supply C-credits. An empirical application to dry land cropping systems in three regions of Montana shows that information about the spatial autocorrelation exhibited by soil C could be extremely valuable for reducing transactions costs associated with contracts for C-credits but the benefits are not uniform across all regions or cropping systems. Accounting for spatial autocorrelation greatly reduced the standard errors and narrowed the confidence intervals associated with sample estimates of the mean number of C-credits produced per hectare. For the payment mechanism considered in this paper, tighter confidence intervals around the mean number of C-credits created per hectare enrolled could increase producer payments by more than 100 percent under a C-contract. Author Affiliation: (1) Department of Economics, Boise State University, Boise, Idaho, 83725, USA (2) Department of Statistics, University of Wyoming, Laramie, Wyoming, 82071, USA (3) Department of Agricultural Economics and Economics, Montana State University, Bozeman, Montana, 59717, USA (4) Natural Resource Ecology Laboratory, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, Colorado, 80523, USA Article History: Registration Date: 22/05/2006 Received Date: 27/07/2005 Accepted Date: 09/05/2006 Online Date: 21/12/2006

This paper describes an assessment of the ways in which water supply companies in England and Wales are adapting to climate change, evaluated in the context of a model of the adaptation process. The four components of the model are (i) awareness of and concern about the potential impacts of climate change, (ii) adaptation strategy, (iii) the concept of an adaptation space from which options are selected, and (iv) the notion that three groups of factors influence awareness, strategy and option selection: susceptibility to change, internal characteristics of the organisation, and regulatory and market context. Public water supply in England and Wales is provided by private sector companies, subject to environmental and economic regulation. Hydrological simulations suggest that climate change has the potential to reduce the reliability of supply sources over the next few decades. The industry in December 2004 completed a review of investment requirements over the next five years. Awareness of climate change is high in the water industry, but by developing assessment procedures and incorporating them into the investment review the regulators forced companies to consider explicitly the potential impacts of climate change in a consistent and rigorous manner. These analyses combined climate change with other pressures on water resources, and in practice companies did not attribute specific investment decisions or proposals to climate change or indeed any other individual drivers. The broad strategy adopted by all water supply companies--to maintain standards of service--is determined by regulatory controls and market considerations, but the degree of concern about the impacts of climate change and precise adaptation options necessary to address supply-demand imbalances varied between water supply companies, reflecting local geographic conditions. The water supply companies and regulators have different perspectives on the relative merits of supply-side and demand-side measures, reflecting different organisational priorities. The 2004 investment review determined that no specific actions were necessary to deal with future climate change, but that measures set in place--in terms of methodologies and investment in investigations into specific resource developments--provided a sound foundation for more specific actions in the next investment review in five years time. The paper concludes by summarising the factors assisting and constraining adaptation over the next few decades.

Byline: Erin Baker (1), Leon Clarke (2), John Weyant (3) Abstract: This paper explores optimal near-term technology R&D in the face of uncertain damages caused by the buildup of greenhouse gases. The paper puts particular emphasis on understanding how optimal near-term R&D expenditures might vary based on the technologies pursued in the R&D program. The exploration is conducted in the context of varying impacts from R&D on the global abatement cost function. The R&D planning problem is considered first within a theoretical framework and is then pursued in a stylized application using the DICE model. The paper provides intuition into the circumstances under which near-term technology R&D might increase or decrease under uncertainty, thereby serving as a hedge against climate uncertainty. Author Affiliation: (1) University of Massachusetts, 220 ELab, Amherst, MA, 01002, USA (2) Joint Global Change Research Institute, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, College Park, USA (3) Stanford University, Stanford, USA Article History: Registration Date: 14/02/2006 Received Date: 25/05/2004 Accepted Date: 20/07/2005 Online Date: 01/09/2006

Byline: Robert Mendelsohn (1) Abstract: This paper provides an economic perspective of adaptation to climate change. The paper specifically examines the role of markets and government in efficient adaptation responses. For adaptations to be efficient, the benefits from following adaptations must exceed the costs. For private market goods, market actors will follow this principle in their own interest. For public goods, governments must take on this responsibility. Governments must also be careful to design institutions that encourage efficiency or they could inadvertently increase the damages from climate change. Finally, although in a few cases actors must anticipate climate changes far into the future, generally it is best to learn and then act with respect to adaptation. Author Affiliation: (1) Yale University Robert Mendelsohn, Yale FES, 230 Prospect Street, New Haven, CT, 06511, USA Article History: Registration Date: 14/02/2006 Received Date: 25/05/2004 Accepted Date: 07/09/2005 Online Date: 01/09/2006

Byline: Frans Berkhout (1), Julia Hertin (2), David M. Gann (3) Abstract: Analysis of human adaptation to climate change should be based on realistic models of adaptive behaviour at the level of organisations and individuals. The paper sets out a framework for analysing adaptation to the direct and indirect impacts of climate change in business organisations with new evidence presented from empirical research into adaptation in nine case-study companies. It argues that adaptation to climate change has many similarities with processes of organisational learning. The paper suggests that business organisations face a number of obstacles in learning how to adapt to climate change impacts, especially in relation to the weakness and ambiguity of signals about climate change and the uncertainty about benefits flowing from adaptation measures. Organisations rarely adapt 'autonomously', since their adaptive behaviour is influenced by policy and market conditions, and draws on resources external to the organisation. The paper identifies four adaptation strategies that pattern organisational adaptive behaviour. Author Affiliation: (1) Institute for Environmental Studies, Faculty of Earth and Life Sciences, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Amsterdam, Netherland (2) SPRU-Science and Technology Policy Research, University of Sussex, Sussex, UK (3) Innovation Studies Centre, Tanaka Business School and Civil & Environmental Engineering, Imperial College, London, UK Article History: Registration Date: 14/02/2006 Received Date: 25/05/2004 Accepted Date: 20/07/2005 Online Date: 01/09/2006

Vulnerability is an emerging concept for climate science and policy. Over the past decade, efforts to assess vulnerability to climate change triggered a process of theory development and assessment practice, which is reflected in the reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). This paper reviews the historical development of the conceptual ideas underpinning assessments of vulnerability to climate change. We distinguish climate impact assessment, first- and second-generation vulnerability assessment, and adaptation policy assessment. The different generations of assessments are described by means of a conceptual framework that defines key concepts of the assessment and their analytical relationships. The purpose of this conceptual framework is two-fold: first, to present a consistent visual glossary of the main concepts underlying the IPCC approach to vulnerability and its assessment; second, to show the evolution of vulnerability assessments. This evolution is characterized by the progressive inclusion of non-climatic determinants of vulnerability to climate change, including adaptive capacity, and the shift from estimating expected damages to attempting to reduce them. We hope that this paper improves the understanding of the main approaches to climate change vulnerability assessment and their evolution, not only within the climate change community but also among researchers from other scientific communities, who are sometimes puzzled by the unfamiliar use of technical terms in the context of climate change.

Over the past few decades Integrated Assessment (IA) has emerged as an approach to link knowledge and action in a way that is suitable to accommodate uncertainties, complexities and value diversities of global environmental risks. Responding to the complex nature of the climate problem and to the changing role of climate change in the international climate policy process, the scientific community has started to include stakeholder knowledge and perspectives in their assessments. Participatory Integrated Assessment (PIA) is in its early stage of development. Methodology varies strongly across PIA projects. This paper analyzes four recent IA projects of climate change that included knowledge or perspectives from stakeholders in one-way or another. Approaches and methods used turn out to differ in whether stakeholders are involved actively or passively, whether the approach is bottom-up or top-down, and whether the different functions in the IA process are open or closed to stakeholder input. Also, differences can be seen in the degree to which boundaries are pre-set that limit the roles and domains of competencies attributed to each scientific or non-scientific participant (so-called boundary work). The paper discusses pros and cons of the various approaches identified, and outlines heuristics and considerations to assist those who plan, design or fund new IA processes with stakeholder input on what approaches best to choose in view of the objectives for stakeholder involvement, in view of the role that the IA plays in the overall risk management process and in view of considerations regarding boundary work.

Meteorological observations made on board ships prior to 1854 have until now been overlooked in climatological research largely as a result of the lack of rigorous abstraction and treatment criteria. However, the CLIWOC project has shown that millions of potentially valuable observations have been preserved throughout Europe in the many logbooks that were prepared by officers in the navies of the great powers. Moreover these data can be used and treated in a fashion similar to today's ship-based instrumental observations. The most significant logbook collections are from Spain, the UK, the Netherlands and France. This paper describes the main archives where the logbooks can be found and provides an account of their contents and of the manner in which they were set out. The potential of this source is emphasised by the fact that whilst the CLIWOC project abstracted data for 300,000 days, nearly 90% of the European logbook collections have yet to be examined. This paper concludes with a discussion as to the direction of future studies in this important field.

During the negotiations on the Kyoto Protocol, Brazil proposed allocating the greenhouse gas emission reductions of Annex I Parties according to the relative effect of a country's historical emissions on global temperature increase. This paper analyses the impact of scientific uncertainties and of different options in policy implementation (policy choices) on the contribution of countries' historical emissions to indicators of historical responsibility for climate change. The influence of policy choices was found to be at least as large as the impact of the scientific uncertainties analysed here. Building on this, the paper then proceeds to explore the implications of applying the Brazilian Proposal as a climate regime for differentiation of future commitments on the global scale combined with an income threshold for participation of the non-Annex I regions. Under stringent climate targets, such a regime leads to high emission reductions for Annex I regions by 2050, in particular for Europe and Japan. The income threshold assumptions strongly affect the Annex I reductions, even more than the impact of another burden-sharing key. A variant of the Brazilian Proposal, allocating emission reductions on the basis of cumulative emissions since 1990, would lead to a more balanced distribution of emission reductions.

This paper discusses methodological issues relevant to the calculation of historical responsibility of countries for climate change ('The Brazilian Proposal'). Using a simple representation of the climate system, the paper compares contributions to climate change using different indicators: current radiative forcing, current GWP-weighted emissions, radiative forcing from increased concentrations, cumulative GWP-weighted emissions, global-average surface-air temperature increase and two new indicators: weighted concentrations (analogue to GWP-weighted emissions) and integrated temperature increase. Only the last two indicators are at the same time 'backward looking' (take into account historical emissions), 'backward discounting' (early emissions weigh less, depending on the decay in the atmosphere) and 'forward looking' (future effects of the emissions are considered) and are comparable for all gases. Cumulative GWP-weighted emissions are simple to calculate but are not 'backward discounting'. 'Radiative forcing' and 'temperature increase' are not 'forward looking'. 'Temperature increase' discounts the emissions of the last decade due to the slow response of the climate system. It therefore gives low weight to regions that have recently significantly increased emissions. Results of the five different indicators are quite similar for large groups (but possibly not for individual countries): industrialized countries contributed around 60% to today's climate change, developing countries around 40% (using the available data for fossil, industrial and forestry C[O.sub.2], C[H.sub.4] and [N.sub.2]O). The paper further argues including non-linearities of the climate system or using a simplified linear system is a political choice. The paper also notes that results of contributions to climate change need to be interpreted with care: Countries that developed early benefited economically, but have high historical emission, and countries developing at a later period can profit from developments in other countries and are therefore likely to have a lower contribution to climate change.

In agrometeorology and management of meteorology related natural resources, many traditional methods and indigenous technologies are still in use or being revived for managing low external inputs sustainable agriculture (LEISA) under conditions of climate variability. This paper starts with the introduction of an 'end-to-end' climate information build up and transfer system in agrometeorology, in which the use of such methods and technologies must be seen to operate. It then reviews the options that LEISA farmers have in risk management of agrometeorological and agroclimatological calamities. This is based on the role that the pertinent meteorological/climatological parameters and phenomena play as limiting factors in agricultural production and the expectations on their variability. Subsequently, local case studies are given as examples of preparedness strategies to cope with i). variable water/moisture flows, including mechanical impacts of rain and/or hail, ii). variable temperature and heat flows, including fires, and iii). fitting cropping periods to the varying seasons, everywhere including related phenomena as appropriate. The paper ends with a series of important additional considerations without which the indicated strategies cannot be successful on a larger scale and in the long run.

As carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gasses accumulate in the atmosphere and contribute to rising global temperatures, it is important to examine how a changing climate may affect natural and managed ecosystems. In this series of papers, we study the impacts of climate change on agriculture, water resources and natural ecosystems in the General Circulation Model (GCM)--derived climate change projections, described in Part 1, to drive the crop production and water resource models EPIC (Erosion Productivity Impact Calculator) and HUMUS (Hydrologic Unit Model of the United States). These models are described and validated in this paper using historical crop yields and streamflow data in the conterminous United States in order to establish their ability to accurately simulate historical crop and water conditions and their capability to simulate crop and water response to the extreme climate conditions predicted by GCMs. EPIC simulated grain and forage crop yields are compared with historical crop yields from the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) and with yields from agricultural experiments. EPIC crop yields correspond more closely with USDA historical county yields than with the higher yields from intensively managed agricultural experiments. The HUMUS model was validated by comparing the simulated water yield from each hydrologic basin with estimates of natural streamflow made by the US Geological Survey. This comparison shows that the model is able to reproduce significant observed relationships and capture major trends in water resources timing and distribution across the country.

As carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases accumulate in the atmosphere and contribute to rising global temperatures, it is important to examine how derivative changes in climate may affect natural and managed ecosystems. In this series of papers, we study the impacts of climate change on agriculture, water resources and natural ecosystems in the conterminous United States using twelve scenarios derived from General Circulation Model (GCM) projections to drive biophysical impact models. These scenarios are described in this paper. The scenarios are first put into the context of recent work on climate-change by the IPCC for the 21st century and span two levels of global-mean temperature change and three sets of spatial patterns of change derived from GCM results. In addition, the effect of either the presence or absence of a C[O.sub.2] 'fertilization effect' on vegetation is examined by using two levels of atmospheric C[O.sub.2] concentration as a proxy variable. Results from three GCM experiments were used to produce different regional patterns of climate change. The three regional patterns for the conterminous United States range from: an increase in temperature above the global-mean level along with a significant decline in precipitation, temperature increases in line with the global-mean with an average increase in precipitation; and, with a sulfate aerosol effect added to in the same model, temperature increases that are lower than the global-mean. The resulting set of scenarios span a wide range of potential climate changes and allows examination of the relative importance of global-mean temperature change, regional climate patterns, aerosol cooling, and C[O.sub.2] fertilization effects.