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As the world's largest fossil fuels exporter, Russia is one of the key countries for addressing global climate change. However, it has never demonstrated any significant ambitions to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. This paper applies ideational research methodology to identify the structural differences in economic, political, and social normative contexts between industrialized fossil fuel importing economies and Russia that lead to the fundamental gap in motivations driving decarbonization efforts. Russia is unlikely to replicate the approach to the green transition and climate policy instruments of energy-importing countries. In order to launch decarbonization in Russia, interested stakeholders need to frame climate policies in Russia differently. Specifically, the framing must address the priority of diversification as a means to adapting the national economy to a new green landscape, the combination of diverse channels for decarbonization, the promotion of energy-efficiency, closer attention to climate-related forest projects, and linkage of climate change with other environmental problems. Moreover, considering Russia's emissions as a part of the global economic system and shifting from a simplistic national focus on GHG emissions reduction would help coordinate policies through dialogue between exporters and importers of fossil fuel energy-intensive goods, which is essential for the global movement towards a net-zero future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Combining bioenergy and carbon dioxide (CO) capture and storage (CCS) technologies (BECCS) has the potential to remove CO from the atmosphere while producing useful energy. BECCS has played a central role in scenarios that reduce climate forcing to low levels such as 2.6 Wm. In this paper we consider whether BECCS is essential to limiting radiative forcing (RF) to 2.6 Wm by 2100 using the Global Change Assessment Model, a closely coupled model of biogeophysical and human Earth systems. We show that BECCS can potentially reduce the cost of limiting RF to 2.6 Wm by 2100 but that a variety of technology combinations that do not include BECCS can also achieve this goal, under appropriate emissions mitigation policies. We note that with appropriate supporting land-use policies terrestrial sequestration could deliver carbon storage ranging from 200 to 700 PgCO-equiavalent over the 21st century. We explore substantial delays in participation by some geopolitical regions. We find that the value of BECCS is substantially higher under delay and that delay results in higher transient RF and climate change. However, when major regions postponed mitigation indefinitely, it was impossible to return RF to 2.6 Wm by 2100. Neither finite land resources nor finite potential geologic storage capacity represented a meaningful technical limit on the ability of BECCS to contribute to emissions mitigation in the numerical experiments reported in this paper. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Carbon dioxide emissions are the main cause of anthropogenic climate change and play a central role in discussions on climate change mitigation. Previous research has demonstrated that national carbon dioxide emissions are driven mainly by population size and wealth. However, the variation in per capita emissions of nations with similar standards of living and similar population is huge. In this paper we investigate the drivers of national per capita carbon dioxide emissions over and above already known factors. In particular, we extend previous research by taking into account countries' shares of imports and exports, indicators of political interventions such as energy prices, and the use of renewable energy sources. Moreover, we also examine whether international commitments, such as the ones made by many nations at climate summits of the United Nations, matter. We use country-level data from 1980 to 2014 and estimate fixed effects panel regression models. In accordance with former research we find no environmental Kuznets curve with respect to carbon dioxide per capita emission levels. However, higher energy prices and the availability of alternative energy sources both reduce emissions. Furthermore, voluntary international environmental commitments also motivate countries to reduce carbon dioxide emissions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The relationship between long-term climate goals and short/medium-term emission targets forms crucial information for the design of international climate policy. Since IPCC's 4th Assessment Report (AR4), a large number of new scenario studies have been published. This paper reviews this new literature and finds that there is more flexibility in the timing of short-term emission reductions compared to the earlier scenarios assessed by the AR4. For instance, the current literature suggests that a peak of emissions in 2020 and even 2030 would be consistent with limiting temperature change to about 2°C in the long term. The timing when emissions peak depends on whether negative emissions in the long-term can be achieved. The recent scenarios further indicate that global emissions by 2050 should be 40-80% below 2000 levels. Above all, the paper argues that there is no clear, single 'law' that would directly determine the required emissions levels in 2020, but that instead policy-makers need to consider trade-offs between the likelihood of achieving long-term targets, the short-term costs, and their expectation with respect to future technologies (and their possible failure). The higher flexibility might be important in finding acceptable agreements on international climate policy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Rapid cuts in greenhouse gas emissions require an almost complete transformation of the energy system to low carbon energy sources. Little consideration has been given to the potential adverse carbon consequences associated with the technology transition. This paper considers the embodied emissions that will occur to replace the UK's fossil fuel-reliant energy supply with low carbon sources. The analysis generates a number of representative scenarios where emissions embodied in energy systems are integrated within current national climate and energy policy objectives. The embodied emissions associated with a new low carbon energy system are lower than the emissions reduction associated with the low carbon energy sources, confirming that there is a carbon return on investment. However, even if the UK reaches its 2050 territorial climate target, it is estimated that by 2050 an additional 200 Mt CO emissions are generated overseas (compared to 128 Mt generated within the UK) in the production of imported fuels and infrastructure components. The cost-optimal model results suggest that more electrification would need to occur, supported by nuclear energy, mainly in replacement of natural gas to mitigate these emissions. However, due to a number of deployment barriers, other policy interventions along the energy supply chain are likely needed, which are discussed alongside the model results. There could be more emphasis on an absolute reduction in energy demand to reduce the scale of change needed in supplying energy; new business models oriented towards performance and not sales; and existing trade schemes and international effort-sharing frameworks could be extended. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper analyses the technology choices of countries that prioritized transport as a sector in Asia under the Technology Needs Assessment project. The countries used a wide variety of criteria to prioritize technologies which were related to the benefits technologies would provide, costs of technologies and availability of technology charactersitics. Non-motorized transport, mass transit and technologies that improve vehicle energy efficiency emerged as the three most preferred technology choices for the countries. These technology choices can be appropriate candidates for nationally appropriate mitigations actions (NAMA) given their strong contribution for developmentand therefore a methodology based on input-output decomposition analysis isproposed for analysing economy wide CO emissions reductions. The methodologyhas been applied for the transport sector of Lebanon where alternative fuels,improvement to cars (private and taxis) and buses for public transport were prioritized by stakeholders. The economy-wide CO emission reduce by 2,269 thousand tons by 2020 if the prioritized technologies are implemented in Lebanon. Fuel mix effect and structural effect would reduce CO emission by 2,611 thousand tons, while the final demand effect would increase the CO emission by 342 thousand tons. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper we study the impact of alternative metrics on short- and long-term multi-gas emission reduction strategies and the associated global and regional economic costs and emissions budgets. We compare global warming potentials with three different time horizons (20, 100, 500 years), global temperature change potential and global cost potentials with and without temperature overshoot. We find that the choice of metric has a relatively small impact on the CO budget compatible with the 2° target and therefore on global costs. However it substantially influences mid-term emission levels of CH, which may either rise or decline in the next decades as compared to today's levels. Though CO budgets are not affected much, we find changes in CO prices which substantially affect regional costs. Lower CO prices lead to more fossil fuel use and therefore higher resource prices on the global market. This increases profits of fossil-fuel exporters. Due to the different weights of non-CO emissions associated with different metrics, there are large differences in nominal CO equivalent budgets, which do not necessarily imply large differences in the budgets of the single gases. This may induce large shifts in emission permit trade, especially in regions where agriculture with its high associated CH emissions plays an important role. Furthermore it makes it important to determine CO equivalence budgets with respect to the chosen metric. Our results suggest that for limiting warming to 2 °C in 2100, the currently used GWP100 performs well in terms of global mitigation costs despite its conceptual simplicity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) can be a valuable CO mitigation option, but what role CCS will play in the future is uncertain. In this paper we analyze the results of different integrated assessment models (IAMs) taking part in the 27th round of the Energy Modeling Forum (EMF) with respect to the role of CCS in long term mitigation scenarios. Specifically we look into the use of CCS as a function of time, mitigation targets, availability of renewables and its use with different fuels. Furthermore, we explore the possibility to relate model results to general and CCS specific model assumptions. The results show a wide range of cumulative capture in the 2010-2100 period (600-3050 GtCO), but the fact that no model projects less than 600 GtCO indicates that CCS is considered to be important by all these models. Interestingly, CCS storage rates are often projected to be still increasing in the second half of this century. Depending on the scenario, at least six out of eight, up to all models show higher storage rates in 2100 than in 2050. CCS shares in cumulative primary energy use are in most models increasing with the stringency of the target or under conservative availability of renewables. The strong variations of CCS deployment projection rates could not be related to the reported differences in the assumptions of the models by means of a cross-model comparison in this sample. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper I discuss the nature of geoengineering, some of its attractions, and some reasons for concern. I claim that there is confusion in the use of the term ‘geoengineering’ that is related to larger concerns about the language in which responses to climate change are discussed. I conclude that despite some reasonable grounds for suspicion, research in areas that involve carbon dioxide removal and solar radiation management should go on as part of the general portfolio of climate-related research, competing with the full panoply of other possible responses to climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In addition to lower carbon dioxide emissions, policies to reduce fossil fuel combustion can yield substantial air quality co-benefits via reduced emissions of co-pollutants such as particulate matter and air toxics. If co-pollutant intensity (the ratio of co-pollutant impacts to carbon dioxide emissions) varies across pollution sources, efficient policy design would seek greater emissions reductions where co-benefits are higher. The distribution of co-benefits also raises issues of environmental equity. This paper presents evidence on intersectoral, intrasectoral and spatial variations in co-pollutant intensity of industrial point sources in the United States, and discusses options for integrating co-benefits into climate policy design to advance efficiency and equity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper provides a novel assessment of the role of direct air capture of CO from ambient air (DAC) on the feasibility of achieving stringent climate stabilization. We use the WITCH energy-economy-climate model to investigate the long term prospects of DAC, implementing a technological specification based on recent estimates by the American Physical Society (APS ). Assuming global cooperation on a stringent climate policy we find that: (1) DAC is deployed only late in century, after other low carbon options, though at a very significant scale; (2) DAC has an impact on the marginal and total abatement costs (reducing them) and on the timing of mitigation (postponing it); (3) DAC also allows for a prolonged use of oil, with a positive welfare impact for energy exporting countries. Finally, we assess the role of DAC in a less than ideal climate policy by exploring its potential for engaging energy exporting countries in climate mitigation activities by means of a 'clean oil' market in which oil exporters can sell oil decarbonized via DAC. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In recent years a body of literature has arisen on the topic of how to compose the optimal portfolio of mitigation options. The focus has been mainly on options involving shifts from high- to low- or even negative-carbon technologies. Natural sinks play an important role in any attempt to stabilize atmospheric CO and usually enter as a constant term in the overall carbon budget. In this paper, we introduce natural sinks to the carbon management problem and analyze the implications for negative emission technology deployment and the overall mitigation strategy. Amongst other sensitivity analyses, we also investigate the impact of uncertainty in the carbon sink, which we find to raise the importance of negative emissions in the mitigation portfolio significantly lowering the cost of the policy mix. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper synthesizes the results from the model intercomparison exercise among regionalized global energy-economy models conducted in the context of the RECIPE project. The economic adjustment effects of long-term climate policy are investigated based on the cross-comparison of the intertemporal optimization models ReMIND-R and WITCH as well as the recursive dynamic computable general equilibrium model IMACLIM-R. A number of robust findings emerge. If the international community takes immediate action to mitigate climate change, the costs of stabilizing atmospheric CO concentrations at 450 ppm (roughly 530-550 ppm-e) discounted at 3% are estimated to be 1.4% or lower of global consumption over the twenty-first century. Second best settings with either a delay in climate policy or restrictions to the deployment of low-carbon technologies can result in substantial increases of mitigation costs. A delay of global climate policy until 2030 would render the 450 ppm target unachievable. Renewables and CCS are found to be the most critical mitigation technologies, and all models project a rapid switch of investments away from freely emitting energy conversion technologies towards renewables, CCS and nuclear. Concerning end use sectors, the models consistently show an almost full scale decarbonization of the electricity sector by the middle of the twenty-first century, while the decarbonization of non-electric energy demand, in particular in the transport sector remains incomplete in all mitigation scenarios. The results suggest that assumptions about low-carbon alternatives for non-electric energy demand are of key importance for the costs and achievability of very low stabilization scenarios. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper analyzes the regional distribution of climate change mitigation costs in a global cap-and-trade regime. Four stylized burden-sharing rules are considered, ranging from GDP-based permit allocations to schemes that foresee a long-term convergence of per-capita emission permits. The comparison of results from three structurally different hybrid, integrated energy-economy models allows us to derive robust insights as well as identify sources of uncertainty with respect to the regional distribution of the costs of climate change mitigation. We find that regional costs of climate change mitigation may deviate substantially from the global mean. For all models, the mitigation cost average of the four scenarios is higher for China than for the other macro-regions considered. Furthermore, China suffers above-world-average mitigation costs for most burden-sharing rules in the long-term. A decomposition of mitigation costs into (a) primary (domestic) abatement costs and (b) permit trade effects, reveals that the large uncertainty about the future development of carbon prices results in substantial uncertainties about the financial transfers associated with carbon trade for a given allocation scheme. This variation also implies large uncertainty about the regional distribution of climate policy costs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Motorized individual transport strongly contributes to global CO emissions, due to its intensive usage of fossil fuels. Current political efforts addressing this issue (i.e. emission performance standards in the EU) are directed towards car manufacturers. This paper focuses on the demand side. It examines whether CO emissions per kilometer is a relevant attribute in car choices. Based on a choice experiment among potential car buyers from Germany, a mixed logit specification is estimated. In addition, distributions of willingness-to-pay measures for an abatement of CO emissions are obtained. The results suggest that the emissions performance of a car matters substantially, but its consideration varies heavily across the sampled population. In particular, some evidence on gender, age and education effects on climate concerns is provided. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The use of analogies and repeated feedback might help people learn about the dynamics of climate change. In this paper, we study the influence of repeated feedback on the control of a carbon-dioxide (CO) concentration to a goal level in a Dynamic Climate Change Simulator (DCCS) using the 'bathtub' analogy. DCCS is a simplification of the complex climate system into its essential elements: CO concentration (stock); man-made CO emissions (inflow); and natural CO removal or absorption in the atmosphere (outflow). In a laboratory experiment involving DCCS, we manipulated feedback delays in two ways: the frequency of emission decisions and the rate of CO absorption from the atmosphere (climate dynamics). Our results revealed that participants' ability to control the CO concentration generally remained poor even in conditions where they were allowed to revise their emission decisions frequently (i.e., every 2 years) and where the climate dynamics were rapid (i.e., 1.6% of CO concentration was removed every year). Participants' control of the concentration only improved with repeated feedback in conditions of lesser feedback delay. Moreover, the delay due to climate dynamics had a greater effect on participants' control than the delay due to emission decisions frequency. We provide future research directions and highlight the potential of using simulations like DCCS to help people learn about dynamics of Earth's climate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper we argue that the financial provisions of the Copenhagen Accord, if used primarily to mitigate greenhouse gas (GHGs) emissions, could compensate the lack of more energetic action on the domestic mitigation side. In order to maximize the mitigation potential, the Copenhagen Green Climate Fund (CGCF) should be transformed into the International Bank for Emissions Allowance Acquisition (IBEAA) envisaged by Bradford (). We estimate that 50 percent of the CGCF in 2020 (50 US billions) could finance from 2.1 to 3.3 Gt CO2-eq emission reductions, depending on the domestic mitigation effort of Annex I and Non-Annex I countries. We construct a matrix that shows the level of GHGs emissions in 2020 under all possible combinations of abatement pledges and international mitigation financing, thus highlighting a rich set of options to reach the same level of GHGs emissions in 2020. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The idea of market-based carbon emission trading and carbon taxes is gaining in popularity as a global climate change policy instrument. However, these mechanisms might not necessarily have a positive outcome unless their value reflects socioeconomic and environmental impacts and regulations. Moreover, the fact that they have various inherent exogenous and endogenous uncertainties raises serious concerns about their ability to reduce emissions in a cost-effective way. This paper aims to introduce a simple stochastic model that allows the robustness of economic mechanisms for emission reduction under multiple natural and human-related uncertainties to be analyzed. Unlike standard equilibrium state analysis, the model shows that the explicit introduction of uncertainties regarding emissions, abatement costs, and equilibrium states makes it almost impossible for existing market-based trading and carbon taxes to be environmentally safe and cost-effective. Here we propose a computerized multi-agent trading model. This can be viewed as a prototype to simulate an emission trading market that is regulated in a decentralized way. We argue that a market of this type is better equipped to deal with long-term emission reductions, their direct regulation, irreversibility, and 'lock-in' equilibria. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper we apply a linear regression with spatial random effect to model geographically distributed emission inventory data. The study presented is on NO emission assessments for municipalities of southern Norway and on activities related to emissions (proxy data). Taking advantage of the spatial dimension of the emission process, the method proposed is intended to improve inventory extension beyond its earlier coverage. For this, the proxy data are used. The conditional autoregressive model is used to account for spatial correlation between municipalities. Parameter estimation is based on the maximum likelihood method and the optimal predictor is developed. The results indicate that inclusion of a spatial dependence component lead to improvement in both representation of the observed data set and prediction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In accordance with the concept that only full accounting of major greenhouse gases corresponds to the goals of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and its Kyoto Protocol, this paper considers uncertainties of regional (national) terrestrial biota Full Carbon Accounting (FCA), both those already achieved and those expected. We analyze uncertainties of major components of the FCA of forest ecosystems of a large boreal region in Siberia (~300 × 10 ha). Some estimates for forests of other regions and Russia as a whole are used for comparison. The systems integration of available information sources and different types of models within the landscape-ecosystem approach are shown to have enabled an estimation of the major carbon fluxes (Net Primary Production, NPP, and heterotrophic respiration, HR) for the region for a single year at the level of 7-12% (confidential interval, CI, 0.9), Net Ecosystem Production (NEP) of 35-40%, and Net Biome Production (NBP) of 60-80%. The most uncertain aspect is the assessment of change in the soil carbon pool, which limits practical application of a pool-based approach. Regionalization of global process-based models, introduction of climatic data in empirical models, use of an appropriate time period for accounting and reporting, harmonization and multiple constraints of estimates obtained by different independent methods decrease the above uncertainties of NEP and NBP by about half. The results of this study support the idea that FCA of forest ecosystems is relevant in the post-Kyoto international negotiation process. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Preparatory talks to the next round of negotiations seem to indicate that a comprehensive agreement to mitigate climate change will not be easily attainable, despite the intentions of the US administration and the high expectations surrounding the Copenhagen meeting. One key reason is to what extent fast growing economies, and especially China, should take actions to reduce their growth of emissions. This paper argues that a turning point for international negotiations on climate change could be achieved if China were to agree on carbon obligations in the future. Results from modelling work suggest that the optimal investment behaviour is to anticipate the implementation of a climate policy by roughly 10 years, and that thus future commitments—if credible—could lead to significantly earlier steps towards carbon mitigation. If fast growing economies, and foremost China, believe in the long term objective of global stabilization of carbon concentrations, it might be economically rationale to sign on future targets, provided developed countries take on immediate action. Such a provision could be beneficial for both the developing and developed world. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Many European politicians argue that the EU should set tougher emission targets than what is required by the Kyoto protocol, and moreover, that emission trading with other countries outside EU should be limited so as to keep emission quota prices high. One of the arguments, frequently cited for such a policy, is the need for technological development. However, the literature on climate change and technological innovation does not unambiguously support the need for setting high emission taxes today. In this paper we investigate the relationship between emission taxes and technological change further by modeling innovation activity explicitly. In our model both the amount of R&D and the amount of carbon abatement are decided in a decentralized way by the market as a response to an emission tax. Moreover, we introduce several distinct failures in the market for new innovations, among others, insufficient patent protection and intertemporal knowledge spill-overs. Our findings suggest that governments should under some circumstances set a higher carbon tax today if we have technological change driven by R&D than if we have pure exogenous technological change. Based on numerical simulations these circumstances are (a) positive intertemporal knowledge spillovers and/or (b) weak patent protection. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]