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The mainstream discourses on global climate change have tended to focus on mitigation and have neglected the adaptive measures, particularly at the local level, even though the local/indigenous people have been considered to be more vulnerable to such change. However, climate change has a distinct local reality—since the way such change is perceived and addressed is linked with the local people and their practices. Although climate change largely affects the lives of the local poor, certain positive effects may also occur for those marginalized people. In other words, many of the indigenous peoples have an adaptive capacity to deal with climate change. Therefore, climate change adaptation has now increasingly gained prominence. In this context, this paper will investigate the impact of climate change at the local level and explain how an indigenous and vulnerable population, the Konda Reddis, respond to such change through cultural adaptation. The paper will focus on the cultural significance of the jeelugu (fishtail palm, Caryota urens) and Konda Reddis’ shift from the jeelugu to the tati (palmyra palm, Borassus flabellifera). I will argue that such a shift is an indication of an adaptation to climate change. I will also maintain that though climate change plays a dominant role in stimulating such adaptation, certain other factors also interact with climatic factors in the adaptation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Globally, agriculture is recognized as a highly vulnerable sector to climate change and risks from climatic aberrations pose an imminent danger to the food security and sustainability of livelihoods. To bring robustness in climate adaptation planning, evaluation of resilience across homogenous regions is essential for developing and scaling suitable location-need-context specific interventions and policies that build the resilience of the agricultural system. In this paper, we present an analysis and discussion of multi-scalar and multi-indicator assessment, by profiling resilience across agro-climatic zones of India, based on the development of a Climate-Resilient Agriculture Index embracing environmental, technological, socio-economic, and institutional and infrastructural dimension. A total of 26 indicators, spread across these four dimensions, were employed to purport inter- and intra-agro-climatic zone differentials in the level of resilience. Among the zones, it was found that West Coast Plains & Ghats and Tans-Gangetic Plains had the highest degree of resilience to manage climate risks. Most of the districts lying within Eastern Himalayan Region, Middle Gangetic Plains, Eastern Plateau & Hills, and Western Dry Region had a lower degree of resilience. The study places greater emphasis on deciphering region-specific drivers and barriers to resilience at a further disaggregated scale for improving rural well-beings. It is construed that devising action plans emphasizing awareness, preservation of natural resources, diversification, building physical infrastructure, strengthening of grass-root institutions, and mainstreaming climate adaptation in the developmental policy is crucial for climate-resilient pathways. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The current nationally determined contributions, pledged by the countries under the Paris Agreement, are far from limiting climate change to below 2 ∘C temperature increase by the end of the century. The necessary ratcheting up of climate policy is projected to come with a wide array of additional benefits, in particular a reduction of today's 4.5 million annual premature deaths due to poor air quality. This paper therefore addresses the question how climate policy and air pollution–related health impacts interplay until 2050 by developing a comprehensive global modeling framework along the cause and effect chain of air pollution–induced social costs. We find that ratcheting up climate policy to a 2 ∘ compliant pathway results in welfare benefits through reduced air pollution that are larger than mitigation costs, even with avoided climate change damages neglected. The regional analysis demonstrates that the 2 ∘C pathway is therefore, from a social cost perspective, a "no-regret option" in the global aggregate, but in particular for China and India due to high air quality benefits, and also for developed regions due to net negative mitigation costs. Energy and resource exporting regions, on the other hand, face higher mitigation cost than benefits. Our analysis further shows that the result of higher health benefits than mitigation costs is robust across various air pollution control scenarios. However, although climate mitigation results in substantial air pollution emission reductions overall, we find significant remaining emissions in the transport and industry sectors even in a 2 ∘C world. We therefore call for further research in how to optimally exploit climate policy and air pollution control, deriving climate change mitigation pathways that maximize co-benefits. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

India's commitment to Paris Climate Change Agreement through its Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) will require the energy system to gradually move away from fossil fuels. The current energy system is witnessing a transformation to achieve these through renewable energy targets and enhanced energy efficiency (EE) actions in all sectors. More stringent global GHG mitigation targets of 2 °C and well below 2 °C regimes would impose further challenges and uncertainties for the Indian energy systems. This paper provides a quantitative assessment using bottom-up optimization model (AIM/Enduse) to assess these until 2050 for meeting carbon mitigation commitments while achieving the national sustainable development goals. Energy transformation trajectories under five scenarios synchronized with climate mitigation regimes are explored—Business As Usual scenario (BAU), NDC scenario, 2 °C scenarios (early and late actions), and well below 2 °C scenario. The key results from the study include (a) coal-based power plants older than 30 years under NDC and older than 20 years for deeper CO2 mitigation will be stranded before their lifetime, (b) increase in renewables of up to 225–280 GW by 2050 will require battery storage with improved integrated smart grid infrastructure, (c) growth in nuclear to 27–32 GW by 2050 is dependent on nuclear supply availability, (d) gradual shift towards electrification in industry, building, and transport sectors, and (e) installation of CCS technologies in power and industry sectors. Cumulative investments of up to 6–8 trillion USD (approximately) will be required during 2015–2030 to implement the actions required to transform the current energy systems in India. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Evidence from climate-smart village (CSV) approach to mainstream climate-smart agriculture (CSA) demonstrates improved productivity, income, and reduced climatic risks. However, its contribution to gender empowerment in diverse farming households is not documented. This study creates a Gender Empowerment Index for climate-smart villages (GEI-CSV) based on four major measurable indicators—political, economic, agricultural, and social. The gender gap was derived by mapping difference in empowerment levels across selected CSVs and non-CSVs. These indicators can be used as a vital tool to understand the process of gender empowerment that can trigger the entry points to achieve gender equality, which is also an important aspect in the adoption of climate-smart agriculture practices (CSAPs). The study measures empowerment at the inter-household and intra-household level across CSVs and non-CSVs from the individual household survey with both female and male members of the same household. This paper provides evidence demonstrating how gender empowerment differs in CSVs and non-CSVs from selected climate-smart villages (community-based approach) in two contrasting ecologies and socio-economic settings of India. The study documents the existing gender gap in CSVs and non-CSVs across India's western (Haryana) and eastern (Bihar) Indo-Gangetic Plains (IGP). Irrespective of CSVs and non-CSVs, considerable differences in outlook and gender gap were observed between Bihar and Haryana. Both women and men in Bihar are less empowered than they are in Haryana. High empowerment level in CSVs than non-CSVs shows that the concept of CSVs has brought a change towards knowledge and capacity enhancement of both women and men farmers promoting gender equality in farming households with a varying scope of interventions made and required for scaling CSAPs across the diversity of farming households. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Drought is an important downside risk in Indian agriculture; and the spatial differences in its intensity and probability of occurrence are considerable. To develop strategies to manage the risk of drought, and to coordinate and implement these strategies, it is essential to understand the variation in drought risk across geographical or administrative levels. This paper, using a multilevel modeling approach, decomposes the variation in drought risk across states, regions, districts, villages and households, and finds it disproportionately distributed. About half the variation is attributed to between-individual (i.e., household) differences and the rest to between-population differences, mainly to states and villages. These findings suggest the potential for a critical role of states (policies) and local institutions (communities) in enhancing resilience of agriculture to droughts through the correct targeting of policies and support for the most appropriate geographic level. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Addressing the challenges of global warming requires interventions on both the energy supply and demand side. With the supply side responses being thoroughly discussed in the literature, our paper focuses on analyzing the role of end use efficiency improvements for Indian climate change mitigation policy and the associated co-benefits, within the integrated assessment modeling framework of Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM). Six scenarios are analyzed here in total- one no climate policy and two climate policy cases, and within each of these one scenario with reference end use energy technology assumptions and another with advance end use energy technology assumptions has been analyzed. The paper has some important insights. Final energy demand and emissions in India are significantly reduced with energy efficiency improvements, and the role of this policy is important especially for the building and transportation sector under both reference and climate policy scenarios. Though energy efficiency policy should be an integral part of climate policy, by itself it is not sufficient for achieving mitigation targets, and a climate policy is necessary for achieving mitigation goals. There are significant co-benefits of energy efficiency improvements. Energy security for India is improved with reduced oil, coal and gas imports. Significant reduction in local pollutant gases is found which is important for local health concerns. Capital investment requirement for Indian electricity generation is reduced, more so for the climate policy scenarios, and finally there are significant savings in terms of reduced abatement cost for meeting climate change mitigation goals. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The global incidence of very intense cyclones has increased in recent decades with climate projections signaling that this trend will intensify. To what degree can vulnerability to extreme weather events be mitigated by access to a rural livelihoods program, particularly with regard to the impacts on women? This paper addresses this question through a natural experiment arising from two independent but overlapping sources of variation: exposure to a devastating cyclone that occurred in the Bay of Bengal region of India and the staggered rollout of a rural livelihoods intervention. Comparisons from household surveys across communities more or less exposed to the storm before and after the introduction of the program reveal that the storm led to significant reductions in overall household expenditure, and that these reductions were indeed the largest for women, adding to the emerging evidence for the frequently-posed hypothesis that women bear the brunt of the effects of disasters on overall household consumption. Participation in the livelihoods program mitigated some of the reductions in household nonfood expenditure and women's consumption, but not on food expenditure. These results from a densely populated region whose topography makes it particularly vulnerable to storms can inform future policy approaches and aid in modeling the impact of these policies on the effects of climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

South Asia’s dependence on the monsoon has always been a source of economic uncertainty. This paper examines the history of ways of thinking about the monsoon and risk, focusing on India. The science of meteorology, and a growing interest in ways to mitigate monsoon risk, developed in response to major famines. Piecemeal interventions, including a series of canals and small dams, began India’s hydraulic transformation. By the middle of the twentieth century, massive hydraulic engineering emerged as the dominant solution to controlling the monsoon’s risks. Large dams account for the largest share of government expenditure in independent India, but since the 1960s, intensive and mostly unregulated groundwater exploitation has played a greater role in meeting irrigation needs. The expansion in India’s irrigated area and an expansion in food production. But this has come at a cost: millions have been displaced by dam construction; groundwater exploitation has reached unsustainable levels, and has had an effect on regional climate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Quantification of greenhouse gas emissions is a critical research gap for space cooling and refrigeration applications in Indian commercial buildings. This is especially relevant as these services are expected to grow rapidly in future driven by economic growth and urbanisation. This paper focuses on these two applications which are highly energy and emission intensive, and quantifies their carbon dioxide (CO) and hydrofluorocarbon (HFC) emissions through soft-linking a top-down model with a bottom-up approach. An integrated assessment modelling framework Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM)-IIM is used for modelling energy-related emissions under a business-as-usual scenario. In addition to CO emissions occurring from electricity use, cooling and refrigeration in commercial buildings emit another set of highly potent greenhouse gases, emanating from application of HFCs as coolant. HFCs substitute their ozone-depleting precursors in these applications. Countries across the world have agreed to phase down HFCs under the Montreal Protocol. Before we can analyse cost-effective options to bring down these emissions, it is important to quantify and assess the amount of emissions that could be avoided in the future. Our research sets up a baseline for carbon dioxide and HFC emissions from India for the commercial air-conditioning and refrigeration sectors and finds the potential HFC emission mitigation due to the Kigali Amendment. A detailed bottom-up modelling of these emissions is undertaken and it is found that, if unabated, the HFC emissions from commercial sector will surge from mere 1.8 million tonne (Mt) COe in 2015 to 211 Mt COe in 2050, whereas energy-related CO emissions from commercial air-conditioning and refrigeration will rise from 37 to 297 Mt COe in the same period. We also highlight the role of management practices and regulation for curbing HFC emissions which is especially relevant for the commercial building sector. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Drought is among the most dreaded threats as far as natural disasters are concerned wielding, as it does, a significant impact on ecosystems, people's livelihoods, and the socio-economic development of a country. A significantly large geographic area of India happens to be drought prone. In order to understand people's response to the impacts of drought and their coping strategies, it is crucial to understand their perceptions. Studies investigating community perceptions relevant to drought impacts and concomitant adaptive behaviours are rare in India. This paper documents communities' perceptions of impacts of drought on their livelihood assets and adaptation practices. It does this with the help of the fuzzy cognitive mapping approach in the Mahabubnagar district of India's Telangana state. In order to develop pathways for drought resilient livelihoods we ran simulations for future drought scenarios with various bundles of adaptation strategies enabling us to evaluate their effectiveness in providing resilience against drought. The study also tested the suitability of various activation rules and transformation functions, used for running simulations. Incorporating stakeholders' perceptions, knowledge and beliefs about impacts of droughts, and engaging them in the process of developing drought resilient livelihoods is expected to fine-tune the drought related policy-making. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Existing studies in the context of assessing vulnerability to climate variability and change delineate, rather inadequately, interconnected interactions occurring within the climate-human-environment interaction space. Besides, studies documenting stakeholders' perceptions regarding climate change induced vulnerabilities are limited in terms of providing indicators for decision-making. This paper aims at constructing a livelihood vulnerability index for climate variability and change capturing interconnected interactions based on peoples' perceptions while providing indicators for evidence based decision-making. A semi-quantitative fuzzy cognitive mapping (FCM) approach has been deployed to capture peoples' perceptions of climate induced perturbations and adaptations. This approach helps quantify stakeholders' perspectives while capturing interconnected interactions in order to estimate livelihood vulnerability to climate variability and change of poor agro-pastoralists in the Bhilwara, a district in Western India. Combining the FCM approach with a sustainable livelihood framework warrants an understanding of assets sensitive to climate variability and change along with those serving as adaptive capacities. The findings of this study confirm that financial and natural assets are most susceptible to harm while organisational and financial assets provide resilience against climate variability and change. The results suggest that livelihood vulnerability of agro-pastoralists lie in the range of being 'vulnerable' to climate variability and change while varying across three seasons summer, winter, and rainfall. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

People's perceptions of changes in local weather patterns are an important precursor to proactive adaptation to climate change. In this paper, we consider public perceptions of changes in average rainfall in India, analyzing the relationship between perceptions and the instrumental record. Using data from a national sample survey, we find that local instrumental records of precipitation are a strong predictor of perceived declines in rainfall. Perceptions of decreasing rainfall were also associated with perceptions of changes in extreme weather events, such as decreasing frequency of floods and severe storms, increasing frequency of droughts, and decreasing predictability of the monsoon. Higher social vulnerability-including low perceived adaptive capacity and greater food and livelihood dependence on local weather-was also associated with perceptions of decreasing rainfall. While both urban and rural respondents were likely to perceive local changes in precipitation, we show that rural respondents in general were more sensitive to actual changes in precipitation. Individual perceptions of changes in local climate may play an important role in shaping vulnerability to global climate change, adaptive behavior, and support for adaptation and mitigation policies. Awareness of local climate change is therefore particularly important in regions where much of the population is highly exposed and sensitive to the impacts of climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Food security in India is tightly linked to rainfall variability. Trends in Indian rainfall records have been extensively studied but the subject remains complicated by the high spatiotemporal variability of rainfall arising from complex atmospheric dynamics. For various reasons past studies have often produced inconsistent results. This paper presents an analysis of recent trends in monthly and seasonal cumulative rainfall depth, number of rainy days and maximum daily rainfall, and in the monsoon occurrence (onset, peak and retreat). A modified version of the Mann-Kendall test, accounting for the scaling effect, was applied to 29 variables derived from square-degree-resolution daily gridded rainfall (1951-2007). The mapping of gridded trend slopes and the regional average Kendall test were used concurrently to assess the field significance of regional trends in areas exhibiting spatial homogeneity in trend directions. The statistics we used account for temporal and spatial correlations, and thus reduce the risk of overestimating the significance of local and regional trends. Our results i/ improve available knowledge (e.g. 5 %-field-significant delay of the monsoon onset in Northern India); ii/ provide a solid statistical basis to previous qualitative observations (e.g. 1 %-field-significant increase/decrease in pre-monsoon rainfall depth in northeast/southwest India); and, iii/ when compared to recent studies, show that the field significance level of regional trends (e.g. in rainfall extremes) is test-dependent. General trend patterns were found to align well with the geography of anthropogenic atmospheric disturbances and their effect on rainfall, confirming the paramount role of global warming in recent rainfall changes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper combines the climatological and societal perspectives for assessing future climatic extremes over Kangasabati River basin in India using an ensemble of four high resolution (25 km) regional climate model (RCM) simulations from 1970 to 2050. The relevant extreme indices and their thresholds are defined in consultation with stakeholders and are then compared using RCM simulations. To evaluate the performance of RCM in realistically representing atmospheric processes in the basin, model simulations driven with ERAInterim global re-analysis data from 1989 to 2008 are compared with observations. The models perform well in simulating seasonality, interannual variability and climatic extremes. Future climatic extremes are evaluated based on RCM simulations driven by GCMs, for present (1970-1999) and for the SRES A1B scenario for future (2021-2050) period. The analysis shows an intensification of majority of extremes as projected by future ensemble mean. The study suggests that there is a marked consistency in stakeholder observed changes in climate extremes and future predicted trends. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Projections by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change suggest that there will be an increase in the frequency and intensity of climate extremes in the 21st century. Kolkata, a megacity in India, has been singled out as one of the urban centers vulnerable to climate risks. Modest flooding during monsoons at high tide in the Hooghly River is a recurring hazard in Kolkata. More intense rainfall, riverine flooding, sea level rise, and coastal storm surges in a changing climate can lead to widespread and severe flooding and bring the city to a standstill for several days. Using rainfall data, high and low emissions scenarios, and sea level rise of 27 cm by 2050, this paper assesses the vulnerability of Kolkata to increasingly intense precipitation events for return periods of 30, 50, and 100 years. It makes location-specific inundation depth and duration projections using hydrological, hydraulic, and urban storm models with geographic overlays. High resolution spatial analysis provides a roadmap for designing adaptation schemes to minimize the impacts of climate change. The modeling results show that de-silting of the main sewers would reduce vulnerable population estimates by at least 5 %. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper estimates the national level trend of India's NO emissions from 1985-2005 and detailed sub-regional (594 districts) level and sector emissions for the year 2005. NO emissions are estimated using the latest methodologies (IPCC ), disaggregated activity data and indigenized emission factors. The estimates show that India's NO emissions have grown from 144 Gg in 1985 to 267 Gg in 2005 exhibiting a compounded annual growth rate of 3.1%, which has been gradually declining from 4.7% over 1985-1990 to 2.4% over 2000-2005. N-fertilizer application contributed most to NO emissions, a 49% share in 2005 compared to 40% in 1985. Sub-regional (district-level) distribution of NO emissions showed rising mean and spread over the years, with average emissions per districts increasing from 305 ton NO per year in 1990 to 450 tons in 2005. The main reason being increased use of N-fertilizer. However crop selection plays an important role in NO emissions and there are crops providing high economic returns but low N-fertilizer requirements. Agriculture sector could contribute considerably to GDP even with very low NO emissions. Indian agriculture practices vary widely in input applications and crop yields across states. The gradual transition from traditional to modern agriculture over past two decades has enhanced the intensity of inputs like N-fertilizer. A simple correlation based on 1985-2005 trends shows that, ceteris paribus, a 10% increase in total crop production is accompanied with a 12.4% increase in N-fertilizer application and a 9.7% increase in total NO emissions from India. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Through analyzing the changes of averaged temperature and precipitation along the Brahmaputra Valley from 1980 to 2005, and investigating the correlation between atmospheric circulation indices and these changes, the respondence of the Brahmaputra Valley to the global warming had been analyzed in this paper. It is found that the Brahmaputra Valley climate became warmer and wetter from 1980 to 2005, and the change magnitude is higher than that over the whole Tibetan Plateau. Therefore, the respondence of the Brahmaputra valley to the global warming is more evident than that of the whole plateau during the period. The relationship between atmospheric circulation indices and the regional climate change is significant. When North Atlantic Oscillation index is higher in summer, the climate of the Brahmaputra Valley becomes warmer and dryer; vice versa. When South Oscillation index is higher, it becomes warmer and wetter; vice versa.Worthy of note, the results in this study only emphasize some evidence of change in temperature and precipitation over the Brahmaputra Valley during 1980-2005. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The micrometeorological technique of eddy covariance is a powerful tool for characterizing the carbon (C) budget of terrestrial ecosystems. Eddy covariance method was used for estimating Net Ecosystem Exchange (NEE) of carbon dioxide between atmosphere and revegetated manganese mine spoil dump at Gumgaon, India. In this paper, we analyzed the diel CO flux pattern and its response to various physical environmental conditions. The carbon balance of terrestrial ecosystems is particularly sensitive to climatic changes. Study of diel pattern of CO flux showed that carbon uptake was dependent on sunlight. Effect of temperature and latent heat on the CO flux showed that rate of CO uptake increased proportionally, but later declined due to various factors like stomatal response, high evaporative demand, circadian rhythm and/or a combination of all three. Net ecosystem production of revegetated land was found to be 28.196 KgC/ha/day whereas average net carbon release by the ecosystem, through respiration was observed to be 5.433 KgC/ha/day. Thus, quantifying net carbon (C) storage in degraded land is a necessary step in the validation of carbon sequestration estimates and in assessing the possible role of these ecosystems in offsetting adverse impacts of fossil fuel emissions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change has the potential ability to alter the occurrence and severity of extreme events. Though predicting changes of such extreme events is difficult, understanding them is important to determine the impacts of climate change in various sectors. This paper presents the change in rainfall extremes in the monsoon season in south-west Indian peninsula. Daily rainfall data were analysed for the entire Kerala state in India to determine if the extreme rainfall had changed over the 50-year period. Several indices were derived from the data to identify the extreme rainfalls. The trends of all the extreme indices were assessed by parametric ordinary least square regression technique, which were tested for significance at 95% level. Results showed significant decrease in monsoon rainfall extremes in Kerala that would affect the tendency of change in seasonal total rainfall. This study provides a comprehensive knowledge on extreme monsoon precipitation in Kerala, which could also be employed to study changing climate at local scale in other regions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

India is perceived to be one of the most attractive Non-Annex I countries for CDM project development. There are more than 350 projects in the CDM pipeline, largely in the areas of renewable energy, energy efficiency in industries and fossil fuel switching. This paper examines the socio-economic component of sustainable development commitments of the CDM projects to see if they can make any impact on rural poverty in India, since the goal of poverty alleviation lies at the core of the country's development priorities. The study concludes that CDM is not contributing to rural poverty alleviation to any notable extent. Nearly all the projects have a business orientation and are not directed to the development of rural poor. Even the renewable energy projects will have limited role in up-liftment of the masses below poverty line due to their weak resource base. For CDM to emerge as a "win--win" strategy for poverty alleviation projects should be aimed at the rural communities and designed to accelerate agricultural growth in the rainfed regions of the country. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper quantifies the role of Indian forests as source or sink of carbon. The model used in the study takes into account the growing stock, additional tree organs, dead biomass, litter layer and soil organic matter, harvesting and harvesting losses, effects of pests, fire etc., allocation of timber to wood products, life span of products including recycling and allocation to landfills. The net carbon balance calculated as the net source or sink of the forest sector was assessed for the year 1993–94. The study is important in view of the obligation placed by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) on the signatory nations to provide a periodic update of carbon budget in the atmosphere. For the available data and the underlying assumptions, the results of the carbon budget model indicated that the Indian forest sector acted as a source of 12.8 TgC (including accumulation of carbon in the dead biomass) for the year 1994. The results obtained reinforced the notion that an integrated approach is required in order to evaluate the forest sector's influence on the global atmospheric carbon levels. The model used in this study has the advantage that all the factors determining the carbon budget can be integrated and altered to determine their influence. The study also throws light on the issues that stand in the way of preparing through carbon budget for developing countries like India. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A Correction to this paper has been published: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-020-02950-9 [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]