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Policymakers may wish to take into account public opinion on climate change as they craft legislation, but if public opinion changes substantially in response to seemingly trivial changes in survey questionnaire design, perhaps such reliance would be unwise. This paper examines 110 experiments implemented in surveys of truly random samples of American adults between 2012 and 2018 (N=4414), exploring the extent to which answers to questions were influenced by order and wording manipulations. Of 144 tests, 31 (22%) yielded statistically significant effects. Adjustments for multiple hypothesis tests reduced this percentage to between 7 and 9%. The effect sizes are routinely small. These results are consistent with the conclusion that survey results on climate change issues are relatively robust, so policymakers can take them seriously if they wish to do so. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the race towards economic growth, increased pollutant emissions have spurred the rise in global surface temperatures, intensifying the process of climate change. While the existing literature on the economic impact of climate-related variables has looked at outcomes such as growth, income, fiscal response, and poverty, the effect of temperature shocks on inflation has largely been neglected. This paper is an attempt to fill this lacuna. Indeed, we analyze the dynamic impact of temperature shocks on inflation, a key policy variable of most central banks. We use a panel-VAR method with fixed-effects and a sample of developed and developing countries over the period 1961–2014. Our results suggest that temperature shocks lead to inflationary pressures. Worryingly, and for developing countries in particular, we find that these effects persist several years after the initial shock. Our finding remained unaltered by various robustness checks. We show that these effects pose a threat to monetary policy making. We argue that central banks should pay more attention to temperature shocks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The idea of the carbon budget is a powerful conceptual tool to define and quantify the climate challenge. Whilst scientists present the carbon budget as the geophysical foundation for global net-zero targets, the financial metaphor of a budget implies figuratively the existence of a ‘budget manager’ who oversees the budget balance. Using this fictive character of budget manager as a heuristic device, the paper analyses the roles of carbon dioxide removal (CDR) and solar radiation management (SRM) under a carbon budget. We argue that both CDR and SRM can be understood as ‘technologies of offset’. CDR offsets positive carbon emissions by negative emissions, whereas SRM offsets the warming from positive greenhouse gas forcing by the induced cooling from negative forcing. These offset technologies serve as flexible budgeting tools in two different strategies for budget management: they offer the promise of achieving a balanced budget, but also introduce the possibility for running a budget deficit. The lure of offsetting rests on the flexibility of keeping up an ‘appearance’ of delivering a given budget whilst at the same time easing budget constraints for a certain period of time. The political side-effect of offsetting is to change the stringency of budgetary constraints from being regulated by geophysics to being adjustable by human discretion. As a result, a budget deficit can be normalised as an acceptable fiscal condition. We suggest that the behavioural tendency of policymakers to avoid blame could lead them to resort to using offset technologies to circumvent the admission of failure to secure a given temperature target. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Cost of capital is an important driver of investment decisions, including the large investments needed to execute the low-carbon energy transition. Most models, however, abstract from country or technology differences in cost of capital and use uniform assumptions. These might lead to biased results regarding the transition of certain countries towards renewables in the power mix and potentially to a sub-optimal use of public resources. In this paper, we differentiate the cost of capital per country and technology for European Union (EU) countries to more accurately reflect real-world market conditions. Using empirical data from the EU, we find significant differences in the cost of capital across countries and energy technologies. Implementing these differentiated costs of capital in an energy model, we show large implications for the technology mix, deployment, carbon emissions and electricity system costs. Cost-reducing effects stemming from financing experience are observed in all EU countries and their impact is larger in the presence of high carbon prices. In sum, we contribute to the development of energy system models with a method to differentiate the cost of capital for incumbent fossil fuel technologies as well as novel renewable technologies. The increasingly accurate projections of such models can help policymakers engineer a more effective and efficient energy transition. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Ricardian literature has only a handful of contributions addressing the presence of spatial heterogeneity in the marginal effects of climate change on agriculture. Although the majority of these studies offer models with group-specific slope parameters to account for spatial heterogeneity, large discrepancies on which grouping should be preferred still exist. This paper evaluates the extent to which expected future agricultural profits is sensitive to the four pre-determined groupings currently used in the literature. The results indicate that accounting for grouping uncertainty greatly increases the confidence interval around projected climate impacts. In addition, we do not find that one type of grouping is superior to any other. We suggest two potential solutions and emphasize the importance of explicitly controlling for grouping uncertainty in future studies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Societies adapt to climate variations and develop unique cultures that lead to distinctive economic behaviour across different regions. To estimate the climate-economic link and test the hypothetical role of culture, this paper uses a nationwide survey at the household level in China, together with historical temperature data at the prefectural city level for empirical analysis. The results show the significant role of local climate variations on consumption, savings and investment decisions by households. Harsh weather conditions are associated with lower consumption, lower income and higher savings. Such climate characteristics are also associated with a lower probability of purchasing risky financial assets. Using a sample of migrating families, we find strong evidence that culture is an important channel in the climate-economic relationship. Additional support for this view is found through the “catching up with the Joneses” effect documented in the economics literature. Overall, this research provides an alternative perspective for understanding the long-term behavioural impact of climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change is frequently predicted to result in dramatic increases in international migration, yet current research has largely failed to identify such movements in practice. This paper sheds light on this apparent paradox. Drawing on Hirschman’s treatise on Exit, Voice and Loyalty, we provide empirical evidence that voicing about climatic change, as captured through media reports, is associated with greater exposure to climate risks and lower emigration rates. Our finding is consistent with individuals’ variously responding to climatic change either by emigrating or remaining and voicing about climatic change, with the aim of influencing current mitigation, adaptation or compensation policies. Our results, in turn, have implications for policies aimed at shaping international migration patterns and the ability of governments and residents to voice their concerns about climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Sea levels will rise, even with stringent climate change mitigation. Mitigation will slow the rate of rise. There is limited knowledge on how the costs of coastal protection vary with alternative global warming levels of 1.5 to 4.0 °C. Analysing six sea-level rise scenarios (0.74 to 1.09 m, 50th percentile) across these warming levels, and five Shared Socioeconomic Pathways, this paper quantifies the economic costs of flooding and protection due to sea-level rise using the Dynamic Interactive Vulnerability Assessment (DIVA) modelling framework. Results are presented for World Bank income groups and five selected countries from the present to 2100. Annual sea flood damage costs without additional adaptation are more influenced by socio-economic development than sea-level rise, indicating that there are opportunities to control risk with development choices. In contrast, annual sea dike investment costs are more dependent on the magnitude of sea-level rise. In terms of total costs with adaptation, upper middle, low middle and low income groups are projected to have higher relative costs as a proportion of GDP compared with high income groups. If low income countries protected now, flood costs could be reduced after 2050 and beyond. However, without further adaptation, their coasts will experience growing risks and costs leaving them increasingly reliant on emergency response measures. Without mitigation or adaptation, greater inequalities in damage costs between income groups could result. At country level, annual sea flood damage costs without additional adaptation are projected to rapidly increase with approximately 0.2 m of sea-level rise, leaving limited time to plan and adapt. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we evaluate a single-index polymorphic production function that relates agricultural output to temperature and precipitation. The advantage of this new approach to measuring agricultural vulnerability under climatic change is that a single-index measure of vulnerability can capture a range of climate responses including plateau effects. The approach identifies plateau effects in the crop yield-weather relationship and provides overall fits consistent with higher-order polynomial fitting. We apply the technique to corn, soybeans, wheat, and cotton at the USA county level. We illustrate its computation and use as a critical policy variable. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Following the Paris Agreement of 2015, most countries have agreed to reduce their carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions according to individually set Nationally Determined Contributions. However, national CO2 emissions are reported by individual countries and cannot be directly measured or verified by third parties. Inherent weaknesses in the reporting methodology may misrepresent, typically an under-reporting of, the total national emissions. This paper applies the theory of sequential testing to design a statistical monitoring procedure that can be used to detect systematic under-reportings of CO2 emissions. Using simulations, we investigate how the proposed sequential testing procedure can be expected to work in practice. We find that, if emissions are reported faithfully, the test is correctly sized, while, if emissions are under-reported, detection time can be sufficiently fast to help inform the 5 yearly global “stocktake” of the Paris Agreement. We recommend the monitoring procedure be applied going forward as part of a larger portfolio of methods designed to verify future global CO2 emissions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change agreed to “strengthen the global response to the threat of climate change, in the context of sustainable development and efforts to eradicate poverty” (UNFCCC 2015). Designing a global mitigation strategy to support this goal poses formidable challenges. For one, there are trade-offs between the economic costs and the environmental benefits of averting climate impacts. Furthermore, the coupled human-Earth systems are subject to deep and dynamic uncertainties. Previous economic analyses typically addressed either the former, introducing multiple objectives, or the latter, making mitigation actions responsive to new information. This paper aims at bridging these two separate strands of literature. We demonstrate how information feedback from observed global temperature changes can jointly improve the economic and environmental performance of mitigation strategies. We focus on strategies that maximize discounted expected utility while also minimizing warming above 2 °C, damage costs, and mitigation costs. Expanding on the Dynamic Integrated Climate-Economy (DICE) model and previous multi-objective efforts, we implement closed-loop control strategies, map the emerging trade-offs and quantify the value of the temperature information feedback under both well-characterized and deep climate uncertainties. Adaptive strategies strongly reduce high regrets, guarding against mitigation overspending for less sensitive climate futures, and excessive warming for more sensitive ones. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper revisits the dynamic relationship between carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and income growth for the Middle East and North African (MENA) region. There has been a lively debate about the validity of the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC), which postulates the presence of an inverted U-shaped pattern for pollution levels as income increases. Our study proposes a new approach that models the emissions–income nexus without imposing any prior shape on the EKC. Accordingly, we suggest the implementation of a nonlinear panel threshold regression framework in which the change in the dynamics of environmental quality can be modeled endogenously from the data. The empirical results reveal the presence of a threshold effect in CO2 emissions, as the impact of income changes nonlinearly depending on different energy-related variables. We note the role of the energy fuel mix in mitigating emissions as MENA countries switch to low-carbon sources of energy and renewables. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Drought is known as a “creeping disaster” because drought impacts are usually noticed months or years after a drought begins. In the Pacific Island Countries and Territories (PICTs), there is almost no ability to tell when a drought will begin or end, especially for droughts other than meteorological droughts. Monitoring, forecasting and managing drought in the PICTs is complex due to the variety of different ways droughts occur, and the diverse direct and indirect causes and consequences of drought, across the PICT region. For example, the impacts of drought across the PICTs vary significantly depending on (i) the type of drought (e.g. meteorological drought or agricultural drought); (ii) the location (e.g. high islands versus atolls); (iii) socioeconomic conditions in the location affected by drought; and (iv) cultural attitudes towards the causes of drought (e.g. a punishment from God versus a natural process that is potentially predictable and something that can be managed). This paper summarises what is known and unknown about drought impacts in the PICTs and provides recommendations to guide future research and investment towards minimising the negative impacts of droughts when they inevitably occur in the PICTs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper provides insights into the handling of climate change issues related to cultural heritage at different government decision levels dealing with physical planning, and in particular roads. Data are derived from a qualitative analysis of official reports and interviews with local and regional planners in three Swedish regions with contrasting climates. The theoretical lens of Institutional Interplay is applied to an analysis grouped into six themes: Climate threats to cultural heritage, Adaptation measures, Preparedness, Institutional preconditions, Institutional interplay, and Challenges. The results suggest that despite a strong environmental reputation internationally, Sweden is not particularly well prepared for dealing with future climate change impacts on cultural heritage and landscape. The lack of national standards and standardised methods risks regional and sectoral variation in the treatment of similar tasks, a problem which deficiencies in knowledge and continuing education are perpetuating. The degree to which discussions and cooperation occur between divisions within the same authority, between authorities, and in national networks varies considerably. Routines and criteria for prioritisation of cultural heritage mitigation, essential under conditions of limited resources, have yet to have been implemented. We conclude with five recommendations for improving the planning process with respect to climate change risks to cultural heritage. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In 2019, record-setting temperatures in Europe adversely affected human health and wellbeing (WMO 2020) and cities—thus, people in urban areas suffered particularly under heat stress. However, not only heat stress but also the differential vulnerability of people exposed is key when defining adaptation priorities. Up to now, local data on vulnerability and particularly adaptive capacities is rather rare. Various aspects of human vulnerability to heat and capacities to adapt to heat stress in urban areas still have to be explored and assessed, for example in terms of the adaptation at home, during work or while commuting to work. The paper presents new findings of a household survey on how and where different groups experience heat stress and how they assess their susceptibility and capacities to cope and adapt. The findings are based on a survey conducted in the medium-sized city of Ludwigsburg, Germany. Findings show significant linkages and correlations between socio-economic factors and heat vulnerability and capacities to respond. The analysis gives special emphasis to relationships between willingness to implement adaptive measures to reduce heat stress risks and risk perception and adaptive capacities. Particularly, the analysis of future adaptation options and the ability and willingness of different households to implement these provides new insights on the differential capacities to adapt and the need for tailor-made transformation programs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Shifts in species ranges and viability introduced by climate change are creating difficult challenges for scientists and citizens. In many cases, the seriousness of threats to endangered species is forcing policy makers and resource managers to consider novel species protection strategies, either to complement or replace existing conservation approaches. This paper seeks to deepen understanding of public views on a range of conventional and novel management initiatives designed to protect species under the threat of extinction, based on results from an online survey conducted in the USA and Canada. Participants first selected a preferred intervention strategy and were then presented with a series of scenarios, focused on protection of the endangered bristlecone pine, which allowed them to explore their willingness to shift to a new policy regime with a better chance of protecting the species. The use of a decision-pathways survey design allowed us to examine the strength of the nudge required to elicit a shift in their position and the reasoning underlying selection of a preferred management alternative. Results generally support the conclusion that, so long as a clear rationale is provided, there exists surprisingly widespread support for the adoption of novel management approaches to save threatened or endangered species even if this requires more intensive genetic and transformational interventions that are costly or ethically challenging. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change is a serious concern for the agricultural sector given that this sector is highly dependent on climate conditions. Moreover, farmersʼ adaptation process under changing climate can be explained by the psychological factors and the incorporation of socio-environmental background. Therefore, the current study aimed at socio-cognitive perceptions and extended protection motivation theory (PMT) as the basis. This paper estimated the influence of cognitive factors on individualsʼ views and decisions regarding climate change adaptation. Data from this study came from a survey with 245 rural farmers in temperate mount areas of Fars province, Iran. Structural equation modeling (SEM) was used to estimate the different factors. Results showed that three core elements of the theory, namely, risk evaluation, adaptation evaluation, and maladaptation, were the statistically significant factors that could directly explain farmersʼ adaptation decisions to adopt appropriate coping strategies under changing climate. Findings also suggested that another structural factor, adaptation incentives, had a statistically significant influence on adaptation decision-making among farmers. The study proposed valuable insights on social discourse to promote adaptation. Findings strongly offered that social discourse should focus more strongly on confirming the truth and timeliness of information that individuals gained. Eventually, further investigations are necessary to conduct the measurement model in other cultures and geographical areas and see how socio-environmental components can influence risk evaluation and adaptation evaluation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Finfish aquaculture in the Mediterranean Sea faces increasing challenges due to climate change, while potential adaptation requires a robust assessment of the arising threats and opportunities. This paper presents an approach developed to investigate effects of climate drivers on Greek aquaculture, a representative Mediterranean country with a leading role in the sector. Using a farm level approach, dynamic energy budget models for European seabass and meagre were developed, and environmental forcing was used to simulate changes in production and farm profitability under IPCC scenarios RCP45 and RCP85. The effects of temperature and extreme weather events at the individual and farm levels were considered along with that of husbandry parameters such as stocking timing, market size, and farm location (inshore, offshore) for nine regions. The simulations suggest that at the individual level, fish may benefit from warmer temperatures in the future in terms of growth, thus reaching commercial sizes faster, while the husbandry parameters may have as large an effect on growth as the projected shifts in climatic cues. However, this benefit will be largely offset by the adverse effects of extreme weather events at the population level. Such events will be more frequent in the future and, depending on the intensity one assigns to them, they could cause losses in biomass and farm profits that range from mild to detrimental for the industry. Overall, these results provide quantification of some of the potential threats for an important aquaculture sector while suggesting possibilities to benefit from emerging opportunities. Therefore, they could contribute to improving the sector’s readiness for tackling important challenges in the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Anthropogenic climate change has triggered impacts on natural and human systems world-wide, yet the formal scientific method of detection and attribution has been only insufficiently described. Detection and attribution of impacts of climate change is a fundamentally cross-disciplinary issue, involving concepts, terms, and standards spanning the varied requirements of the various disciplines. Key problems for current assessments include the limited availability of long-term observations, the limited knowledge on processes and mechanisms involved in changing environmental systems, and the widely different concepts applied in the scientific literature. In order to facilitate current and future assessments, this paper describes the current conceptual framework of the field and outlines a number of conceptual challenges. Based on this, it proposes workable cross-disciplinary definitions, concepts, and standards. The paper is specifically intended to serve as a baseline for continued development of a consistent cross-disciplinary framework that will facilitate integrated assessment of the detection and attribution of climate change impacts. © 2013 The Author(s).

Implementing an effective climate policy is one of the main challenges for the future. Curbing greenhouse gas emissions can prevent future irreversible impacts of climate change. Climate policy is therefore crucial for present and future generations. Nonetheless, one may wonder whether future economic and social development could be harmed by climate policy. This paper addresses this question by examining recent developments in international climate policy and considering different levels of cooperation that may arise in light of the outcomes of the Conference of the Parties held in Doha. The paper analyses how various climate policy scenarios would enhance sustainability and whether there is a trade-off between climate policy and economic development and social cohesion. This is done by using a new comprehensive indicator, the FEEM Sustainability Index (FEEM SI), which aggregates several economic, social, and environmental indicators. The FEEM SI is built into a recursive-dynamic computable general equilibrium model of the world economy, thus offering the possibility of projecting all indicators into the future and of delivering a perspective assessment of sustainability under different future climate policy scenarios. We find that the environmental component of sustainability improves at the regional and world level thanks to the implementation of climate policies. Overall sustainability increases in all scenarios since the economic and social components are affected negatively yet marginally. This analysis does not include explicitly climate change damages and this may lead to underestimating the benefits of policy actions. If the USA, Canada, Japan and Russia did not contribute to mitigating emissions, sustainability in these countries would decrease and the overall effectiveness of climate policy in enhancing global sustainability would be offset. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Seasonal climate forecasts (SCF) provide information about future climate variability that has the potential to benefit organisations and their decision-making. However, the production and availability of SCF does not guarantee its use in decision-making per se as a range of factors and conditions influence its use in different decision-making contexts. The aim of this paper is to identify the barriers and enablers to the use of SCF across organisations in Europe. To achieve that, we conducted 75 in-depth interviews with organisations working across eight sectors (including energy, transport, water and agriculture) and 16 countries. The majority of the organisations interviewed do not currently use SCF. This was due to the low reliability and skill of SCF in Europe but also with other non-technical aspects such as the lack of relevance and awareness of SCF in the organisations. Conversely, the main enabler to the use of SCF was the interactions with the providers of SCF. In addition, the level of organisational resources, capacity and expertise were also significant enablers to the use of SCF in organisations. This paper provides the first empirical assessment of the use of SCF in Europe. Such insights provide not only an overview of the existing barriers and enablers to the use of SCF in Europe and how these can be overcome and negotiated to enhance the usability of SCF, but can also help inform the broader and emerging context of climate services development in Europe. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Mainstreaming climate change adaptation (CCA) links adaptation and sustainable development goals by integrating climate change information, concerns, and considerations into existing development planning, policy- and decision-making processes. It is gaining popularity in developing countries, but its operationalization has been slow because of the challenges that hinder its on-ground application. To understand the nature of these challenges, this paper developed a four-stage mixed methodology that examined mainstreaming of CCA into local land use planning in Albay, Philippines. The methodology includes a modified Institutional Analysis and Development framework for the qualitative analysis, and 20 mainstreaming indicators for the quantitative assessment. The data used in the analysis were collected from a survey and the interviews conducted among the key players in local land use planning in Albay. The correlation analysis showed that the challenges related to knowledge and awareness, local government prioritization, institutional incentives, availability of funds, access to funds, and stability of funds had the highest frequency of interconnections with the other challenges. Also, a strong tripartite relationship among local leadership, local government prioritization, and local government' s commitment to CCA was observed. The paper suggests that mainstreaming challenges are interconnected at varying degrees. It presents analytical tools and quantifiable measures that can be used to develop a reliable basis for the qualitative assessments of adaptation needs and effectiveness. These sets of information can help analyst and practitioners make informed decisions regarding the operationalization of mainstreaming CCA. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

One of the most important interactions between humans and climate is in the demand and supply of water. Humans withdraw, use, and consume water and return waste water to the environment for a variety of socioeconomic purposes, including domestic, commercial, and industrial use, production of energy resources and cooling thermal-electric power plants, and growing food, fiber, and chemical feed stocks for human consumption. Uncertainties in the future human demand for water interact with future impacts of climatic change on water supplies to impinge on water management decisions at the international, national, regional, and local level, but until recently tools were not available to assess the uncertainties surrounding these decisions. This paper demonstrates the use of a multi-model framework in a structured sensitivity analysis to project and quantify the sensitivity of future deficits in surface water in the context of climate and socioeconomic change for all U.S. states and sub-basins. The framework treats all sources of water demand and supply consistently from the world to local level. The paper illustrates the capabilities of the framework with sample results for a river sub-basin in the U.S. state of Georgia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Energy security is one of the main drivers of energy policies. Understanding energy security implications of long-term scenarios is crucial for informed policy making, especially with respect to transformations of energy systems required to stabilize climate change. This paper evaluates energy security under several global energy scenarios, modeled in the REMIND and WITCH integrated assessment models. The paper examines the effects of long-term climate policies on energy security under different assumptions about GDP growth and fossil fuel availability. It uses a systematic energy security assessment framework and a set of global and regional indicators for risks associated with energy trade and resilience associated with diversity of energy options. The analysis shows that climate policies significantly reduce the risks and increase the resilience of energy systems in the first half of the century. Climate policies also make energy supply, energy mix, and energy trade less dependent upon assumptions of fossil resource availability and GDP growth, and thus more predictable than in the baseline scenarios. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper we propose a non-cooperative meta-game approach to designing and assessing climate agreements among 28 European countries that will be compatible with the EU 2050 climate target. Our proposed game model is identified through statistical emulation of a large set of numerical simulations performed with the computable general equilibrium model GEMINI-E3. In this game, the players are the 28 European countries, the payoffs are related to welfare losses due to abatements and the strategies correspond to the supply of emission rights on the European carbon market. We show it is possible to design a fair burden-sharing rule that equalizes welfare losses between countries to approximately 1.2 % of their discounted household consumption. The associated European CO price in 2050 reaches $1100, a figure in line with previous studies. Lastly, the paper discusses various implementation issues of these types of negotiations and evaluates the cost of non-cooperation among EU countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The private sector's role in climate finance is increasingly subject to political and scientific debate. Yet there is poor empirical evidence of private engagement in adaptation and its potential contribution to the industrialised countries' mobilisation of USD 100 billion of annual climate finance from 2020 onwards to support developing countries to address climate change. This paper analysed 101 case studies of private sector adaptation under the Private Sector Initiative (PSI) of the UNFCCC Nairobi work programme, and examined these against ten 'adaptation finance criteria' that were distilled from UN climate negotiation outcomes. Results show that private adaptation interventions complement public adaptation activities. Yet the ten adaptation finance criteria are not met, which demonstrates that the diplomatic UNFCCC conceptualisation of financing adaptation is dissonant from the private sector reality. For example, while the case studies' investments are 'new and additional' to Official Development Assistance (ODA), their 'predictability' remains unclear. And despite some commitment for 'up-scaling', plans and associated costs for doing so remain undisclosed. Developed countries' role in 'mobilising' private financial resources under the PSI seems limited. It is unrealistic to expect that the UNFCCC alters existing criteria to suit private initiatives, or that the private sector aligns its initiatives to meet existing criteria. This paper advocates monitoring and reporting only of those private investments that principally finance adaptation. This practical way forward would allow private finance to meet criteria such as predictability, transparency, and mobilisation, but would drastically reduce the amount of private investment that could contribute to reaching the USD 100 billion climate finance target. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents an assessment of the implications of climate change for global river flood risk. It is based on the estimation of flood frequency relationships at a grid resolution of 0.5 × 0.5°, using a global hydrological model with climate scenarios derived from 21 climate models, together with projections of future population. Four indicators of the flood hazard are calculated; change in the magnitude and return period of flood peaks, flood-prone population and cropland exposed to substantial change in flood frequency, and a generalised measure of regional flood risk based on combining frequency curves with generic flood damage functions. Under one climate model, emissions and socioeconomic scenario (HadCM3 and SRES A1b), in 2050 the current 100-year flood would occur at least twice as frequently across 40 % of the globe, approximately 450 million flood-prone people and 430 thousand km of flood-prone cropland would be exposed to a doubling of flood frequency, and global flood risk would increase by approximately 187 % over the risk in 2050 in the absence of climate change. There is strong regional variability (most adverse impacts would be in Asia), and considerable variability between climate models. In 2050, the range in increased exposure across 21 climate models under SRES A1b is 31-450 million people and 59 to 430 thousand km of cropland, and the change in risk varies between −9 and +376 %. The paper presents impacts by region, and also presents relationships between change in global mean surface temperature and impacts on the global flood hazard. There are a number of caveats with the analysis; it is based on one global hydrological model only, the climate scenarios are constructed using pattern-scaling, and the precise impacts are sensitive to some of the assumptions in the definition and application. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The overall global-scale consequences of climate change are dependent on the distribution of impacts across regions, and there are multiple dimensions to these impacts. This paper presents a global assessment of the potential impacts of climate change across several sectors, using a harmonised set of impacts models forced by the same climate and socio-economic scenarios. Indicators of impact cover the water resources, river and coastal flooding, agriculture, natural environment and built environment sectors. Impacts are assessed under four SRES socio-economic and emissions scenarios, and the effects of uncertainty in the projected pattern of climate change are incorporated by constructing climate scenarios from 21 global climate models. There is considerable uncertainty in projected regional impacts across the climate model scenarios, and coherent assessments of impacts across sectors and regions therefore must be based on each model pattern separately; using ensemble means, for example, reduces variability between sectors and indicators. An example narrative assessment is presented in the paper. Under this narrative approximately 1 billion people would be exposed to increased water resources stress, around 450 million people exposed to increased river flooding, and 1.3 million extra people would be flooded in coastal floods each year. Crop productivity would fall in most regions, and residential energy demands would be reduced in most regions because reduced heating demands would offset higher cooling demands. Most of the global impacts on water stress and flooding would be in Asia, but the proportional impacts in the Middle East North Africa region would be larger. By 2050 there are emerging differences in impact between different emissions and socio-economic scenarios even though the changes in temperature and sea level are similar, and these differences are greater in 2080. However, for all the indicators, the range in projected impacts between different climate models is considerably greater than the range between emissions and socio-economic scenarios. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This contribution looks at those Small Island Developing States that are doomed to disappear due to anthropogenic climate change. The citizens of these states will not only lose their physical homeland but also their social structure and cultural community. The focus here is on cultural loss. While its subjective importance is easy to grasp, it is harder to see cultural loss as a matter of justice. This paper first presents an account of why cultural loss is often seen as merely unfortunate but not unjust. Against these worries, the paper argues that we have a right that no one threatens our social bases of self-respect and that societal cultures are one important base of self-respect. The discussion concludes that anthropogenic climate change affects peoples' rights with regard to the cultural dimension and that therefore adaptation efforts ought to protect the social bases of self-respect of those climate refugees whose physical, political, and cultural existence is threatened by our inability to keep emissions below safe levels. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Most scientific assessments for climate change adaptation and risk reduction are based on scenarios for climatic change. Scenarios for socio-economic development, particularly in terms of vulnerability and adaptive capacity, are largely lacking. This paper focuses on the utility of socio-economic scenarios for vulnerability, risk and adaptation research. The paper introduces the goals and functions of scenarios in general and reflects on the current global debate around shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs). It examines the options and constraints of scenario methods for risk and vulnerability assessments in the context of climate change and natural hazards. Two case studies are used to contrast the opportunities and current constraints in scenario methods at different scales: the global WorldRiskIndex, based on quantitative data and indicators; and a local participatory scenario development process in Jakarta, showing a qualitative approach. The juxtaposition of a quantitative approach with global data and a qualitative-participatory local approach provides new insights on how different methods and scenario techniques can be applied in vulnerability and risk research. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper applies an ontological politics approach for studying how complexity, uncertainty, and ignorance are being dealt with in the Netherlands by looking at how knowledges are produced and incorporated in decision-making on uncertain climate change. On the basis of work done in the Netherlands, this paper shows two things in particular. First, how decision making responses historically have been subject to change under the influence of floods and how the emergence of climate change has significantly changed these floods. Second, based on the analysis of processes dealing with a blue-green algae problem in a lake, climate change not only changed decision making responses but also changed the very reality that is being enacted. Consequently, this brings an ethical dimension to the fore, related to the intrinsic tension between the growing awareness that 'all is interconnected' on the one hand and the realization we cannot take all into account. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There is a growing focus on the economics of adaptation as policy moves from theory to practice. However, the techniques commonly used in economic appraisal have limitations in coping with climate change uncertainty. While decision making under uncertainty has gained prominence, economic appraisal of adaptation still uses approaches such as deterministic cost-benefit analysis. Against this background, this paper provides a critical review and assessment of existing economic decision support tools (cost-benefit analysis and cost-effectiveness analysis) an uncertainty framework (iterative risk management) and alternative tools that more fully incorporate uncertainty (real options analysis, robust decision making and portfolio analysis). The paper summarises each method, provides examples, and assesses their strengths and weaknesses for adaptation. The tools are then compared to identify key differences, and to identify when these approaches might be appropriate for specific applications in adaptation decision making. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change is having a significant impact on the biology and ecology of fish stocks and aquaculture species and will affect the productivity within seafood supply chains in the future. The challenges are further amplified when actors within the fisheries and aquaculture sectors have very different ideas and assumptions about climate change and what risks and opportunities they entail. In order to address the challenges of climate change, several countries have developed national adaptation plans. However, fisheries and aquaculture are rarely included in these plans, resulting in a general lack of documented adaptation strategies within these sectors in most countries. This paper introduces guidelines for the development of climate adaptation plans (CAPs) within fisheries and aquaculture, applying a co-creation approach that requires the participation of scientists, industry representatives, policymakers, and other relevant stakeholders. The objective is to provide a stepwise approach to facilitate and enable stakeholders to plan strategies toward climate adaptation. The guidelines are based on practical experience and include a three-step process: (1) assessment of risks and opportunities; (2) identification of adaptation measures, and (3) operationalization of CAPs. The three-step process is also part of a larger cycle, including implementation, monitoring, and evaluation, again generating iterative feedback loops over time. Lessons learned are discussed, and we highlight the advantages and challenges of developing CAPs. While the guidelines are designed for and tested within fisheries and aquaculture systems, the CAP approach is also employable for other natural resource-based systems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The understanding of centennial trends of extreme temperature has been impeded due to the lack of early-year observations. In this paper, we collect and digitize the daily temperature data set of Northeast China Yingkou meteorological station since 1904. After quality control and homogenization, we analyze the changes of mean and extreme temperature in the past 114 years. The results show that mean temperature (Tmean), maximum temperature (Tmax), and minimum temperature (Tmin) all have increasing trends during 1904–2017. The increase of Tmin is the most obvious with the rate of 0.34 °C/decade. The most significant warming occurs in spring and winter with the rate of Tmean reaching 0.32 °C/decade and 0.31 °C/decade, respectively. Most of the extreme temperature indices as defined using absolute and relative thresholds of Tmax and Tmin also show significant changes, with cold events witnessing a more significant downward trend. The change is similar to that reported for global land and China for the past six decades. It is also found that the extreme highest temperature (1958) and lowest temperature (1920) records all occurred in the first half of the whole period, and the change of extreme temperature indices before 1950 is different from that of the recent decades, in particular for diurnal temperature range (DTR), which shows an opposite trend in the two time periods. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A Correction to this paper has been published: [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A Correction to this paper has been published: [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the framework of the meteorological observations in Florence after the Medici Network (1654–1670), the earliest surviving record by Pietro Gaetano Grifoni (1751–1766) was followed and partially overlapped by the temperature series by Luca Martini (1756–1775), which has been recovered from different sources and analyzed in this paper. Martini series should be divided in two periods, the turning year being 1765, when he changed house, still in Florence. A critical data analysis and the comparison with the Grifoni contemporary series in Florence clarify the thermometric liquid and scale used in the different periods. The reconstruction of the 1756–1775 daily average temperatures is carried out here following a methodology that includes the conversion from the apparent solar time to the Central Europe Time; the transformation from single/double readings to a daily average; the analysis of the hourly temperature variation during the calendar year in the 1961–1990 reference period in Florence; the test made with the snow benchmark; and the correction of the bias due to the local microclimate in the first period. The final series (1751–1775) has been composed combining Grifoni and Martini observations, covers one quarter of the eighteenth century, and constitutes the only surviving outdoor temperature record in Florence. The comparison with other periods from the mid-seventeenth to the early-twenty-first century confirms that in the mid-eighteenth century, the temperature reached the lowest levels and that a marked warming has characterized the most recent decades. Information on the pre-industrial climatology in Florence can be useful for climatic change study. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we seek to ground discussions of the governance of stratospheric aerosol injection research in recent literature about the field including an updated understanding of the technology’s deployment logistics and scale, pattern of effects, and research pathways. Relying upon this literature, we evaluate several common reservations regarding the governance of pre-deployment research and testing including covert deployment, technological lock-in, weaponization, slippery slope, and the blurry line between research and deployment. We conclude that these reservations are no longer supported by literature. However, we do not argue that there is no reason for concern. Instead, we enumerate alternative bases for caution about research into stratospheric aerosol injection which are supported by an up-to-date understanding of the literature. We conclude that in order to establish the correct degree and type of governance for stratospheric aerosol injection research, the research community must focus its attention on these well-grounded reservations. However, while these reservations are supported and warrant further attention, we conclude that none currently justifies restrictive governance of early-stage stratospheric aerosol injection research. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Crop breeding for resilience to changing climates is a key area of investment in African agricultural development, but proactively breeding for uncertain future climates is challenging. In this paper, we characterise efforts to breed new varieties of crops for climate resilience in southern Africa and evaluate the extent to which climate model projections currently inform crop breeding activity. Based on a survey of seed system actors, we find that the prioritisation of crops and traits is only informed to a limited extent by modelled projections. We use an ensemble of CORDEX models for mid and end of century for southern Africa to test some of the assumptions that underpin current breeding activity, particularly associated with breeding for reduced durations and drought tolerance in maize, and demonstrate some of the ways in which such projections can help to inform breeding priorities and agenda setting (e.g. through the case of assessing cassava toxicity risk). Based on these examples, we propose five potential applications of climate models in informing breeding priorities. Furthermore, after unpacking the sources of uncertainty within the presented model projections, we discuss general principles for the appropriate use of climate model information in crop breeding. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper analyzes reconstructed data on temperature, precipitation, and extreme drought events in the late fifteenth century in Northern China, as well as historical records on population migration, financial crises, military farms, and national decisions during the Ming dynasty. We specifically examine the socio-economic effects of extreme drought events, which led to long-term changes causing the collapse of the Ming dynasty. Our results indicate that the first Cold Valley and the frequent extreme drought events of the Little Ice Age in the late fifteenth century led to a sharp reduction in the military farm system. Extreme droughts caused a large-scale population migration in Northern China and led to the collapse of the tax payment and corvee systems. To cope with the extreme droughts, the local financial reserve was reduced by 51.3%. As a result, local finances became extremely tight. To alleviate fiscal pressures, the court was forced to change the socioeconomic model implemented in the beginning of the Ming dynasty to the corvee equalization method and silver coin tax collection method. These new measures resulted in a decline of the dynasty’s control over households, to the abandonment of military farms, and to reduced control over the country’s social risks. This article explains the mechanism through which climate events led to the collapse of the Ming dynasty. We specifically explore the relationship between socioeconomic transformation and extreme drought in the late fifteenth century in order to better understand the relationship between climate change and social response. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As New Zealand moves towards implementing measures under its new zero carbon climate change act, it is increasingly important to understand the differences in public perceptions of climate change risks, as these can significantly foster or hinder climate change decision-making. While there is some existing research on a range of stakeholder views, beliefs and values pertaining to climate change risks in New Zealand, this paper argues for a more nuanced appreciation for who the ‘public’ is in the country. In an increasingly multi-cultural society, cultural differences across local population groups in climate change risk perception as well as in terms of their varying information needs is relevant to improved science communication and ultimately to improved climate change planning and decision-making. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A prominent meridional oscillation of tropical cyclone (TC) activity in the western North Pacific (WNP) during the past 110 years is identified in this paper. Based on the best-track TC data, the first three Empirical Orthogonal Functions of TC occurrence frequency generally show a northeast-southwest dipole, with the major loadings over the South China Sea (SCS) and the area near Japan. During the periods 1951–1963 and 1997–2019, TC frequency is generally lower over the SCS but higher near Japan. The opposite is true during 1969–1988. Inclusion of the historical TC data from 1910 gives two periods (1943–1963 and 1997–2019) during which the TC numbers near Japan (NJP) are higher but those over the SCS (NSCS) are lower, and two periods (1926–1942 and 1969–1988) with just the opposite pattern. The main factors responsible for this meridional oscillation include changes in the genesis positions of the TCs and their subsequent tracks associated with the interdecadal variation of the large-scale environmental flow patterns. During the periods in which the NSCS (NJP) is higher (lower), the large-scale steering flow is favorable for TCs moving to the SCS. At lower latitudes, vertical wind shear is weaker and low-level cyclonic flow is stronger, which lead to a southward shift of the genesis positions. The patterns are just the reverse during the periods in which the meridional oscillation is in the opposite phase. The oscillation is also found to be partly related to the interdecadal Pacific oscillation through changes in its low-level flow pattern. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Globally, agriculture is recognized as a highly vulnerable sector to climate change and risks from climatic aberrations pose an imminent danger to the food security and sustainability of livelihoods. To bring robustness in climate adaptation planning, evaluation of resilience across homogenous regions is essential for developing and scaling suitable location-need-context specific interventions and policies that build the resilience of the agricultural system. In this paper, we present an analysis and discussion of multi-scalar and multi-indicator assessment, by profiling resilience across agro-climatic zones of India, based on the development of a Climate-Resilient Agriculture Index embracing environmental, technological, socio-economic, and institutional and infrastructural dimension. A total of 26 indicators, spread across these four dimensions, were employed to purport inter- and intra-agro-climatic zone differentials in the level of resilience. Among the zones, it was found that West Coast Plains & Ghats and Tans-Gangetic Plains had the highest degree of resilience to manage climate risks. Most of the districts lying within Eastern Himalayan Region, Middle Gangetic Plains, Eastern Plateau & Hills, and Western Dry Region had a lower degree of resilience. The study places greater emphasis on deciphering region-specific drivers and barriers to resilience at a further disaggregated scale for improving rural well-beings. It is construed that devising action plans emphasizing awareness, preservation of natural resources, diversification, building physical infrastructure, strengthening of grass-root institutions, and mainstreaming climate adaptation in the developmental policy is crucial for climate-resilient pathways. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A Correction to this paper has been published: [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

While all sectors of the economy can be impacted by climate variability and change, the agricultural sector is arguably the most tightly coupled to climate where changes in precipitation and temperature directly control plant growth and yield, as well as livestock production. This paper analyzes the direct and cascading effects of temperature, precipitation, and carbon dioxide (CO2) on agronomic and horticultural crops, and livestock production in Indiana through 2100. Due to increased frequency of drought and heat stress, models predict that the yield of contemporary corn and soybean varieties will decline by 8–21% relative to yield potential, without considering CO2 enhancement, which may offset soybean losses. These losses could be partially compensated by adaptation measures such as changes in cropping systems, planting date, crop genetics, soil health, and providing additional water through supplemental irrigation or drainage management. Changes in winter conditions will pose a threat to some perennial crops, including tree and fruit crops, while shifts in the USDA Hardiness Zone will expand the area suitable for some fruits. Heat stress poses a major challenge to livestock production, with decreased feed intake expected with temperatures exceeding 29 °C over 100 days per year by the end of the century. Overall, continued production of commodity crops, horticultural crops, and livestock in Indiana is expected to continue with adaptations in management practice, cultivar or species composition, or crop rotation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change is a complex issue and understanding it is not an easy endeavour. An abundance of information is available through media and a lot of research has dealt with the question of how to best communicate this issue to the public. However, uncertainty and scepticism remain. In this paper, we argue that the subjective capability of informing oneself satisfactorily about climate change (i.e. informational self-efficacy) to reach goals like forming an opinion, evaluating political decisions regarding climate change, or behaving in a climate protective manner might be a crucial determinant of people's engagement with the issue. In an online survey with a quota sample of German residents (N = 498), informational self-efficacy positively predicted people's exposure to climate change communication in the media, their knowledge about the climate system and climate protective behaviours, and the extent to which they actually engaged in climate protective actions. Moreover, informational self-efficacy positively predicted climate protective behaviour and climate system knowledge indirectly through media exposure—but not behavioural knowledge. Hence, next to optimising the provided climate change communication, we suggest to strengthen people's confidence in dealing with it through media literacy trainings and examine the causal effect of these trainings on informational self-efficacy and climate change engagement. Furthermore, the impact of different behaviours on climate change should be more often and more concretely discussed in media coverage. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Rangelands and pastures include grasslands, savannas, shrublands, and woodlands and are often maintained to support grazing animals. Rangelands and pastures cover more than one-third of the land area in the USA and a similar extent globally. The ecosystem goods and services associated with rangeland and pastureland include critical wildlife habitat, forage for livestock, amenities related to water conservation, sustainable soil functions, and soil stabilization and support a diversity of biota and livelihoods. This paper provides a framework for development of a socio-ecological system (SES)–oriented set of indicators for rangeland and pasture systems to support evaluation of impacts of climate and land use changes. These indicators will also serve to inform adaptive management practices. We present a rationale for using an SES approach to evaluate trends and vulnerabilities of rangeland and pasture systems and provide an example of a set of system indicators arising from the SES approach. The indicators include evaporative demand, land cover extent, aboveground plant biomass, human demographics (population age distribution), cattle numbers, and economic value of cattle products relative to total agricultural value. These indicators are not meant to be comprehensive but are offered to illustrate how they might be used in a SES approach to plan for, assess, and mitigate climate change impacts. The conceptual framework provides a systems perspective on the impact of climate change on the socio-ecological dynamics of rangeland and pasture systems including measures of the resilience and vulnerability of ecosystem services with respect to the six indicators. The article focusses on livestock production in rangeland ecosystems, recognizing that additional work is needed to address pastures and other ecosystem services. Examples of the types of regional information associated with the indicators are provided. Guidance for future efforts in indicator development is offered. This framework will serve to guide future development of indicators for rangeland and pasture components of a larger national effort of indicators. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Indiana Climate Change Impacts Assessment (IN CCIA) is a collaborative effort to provide professionals, decision makers, and the public with information about how climate change affects state and local interests throughout Indiana, USA. This assessment effort has three interrelated goals: (1) analyze and document the best available climate change impacts research, (2) develop and maintain a network of stakeholders and experts, and (3) start a dialog about climate change throughout Indiana. The project adopted a process that prioritized stakeholder engagement, re-envisioned traditional dissemination approaches, and that had limited state government involvement, setting the IN CCIA apart from most other state climate assessments (SCAs) in the USA. This overview describes the motivations, principles, and processes that guided the IN CCIA development, explores how Indiana's approach compares with those of other SCAs, and briefly summarizes the papers presented in this special issue. As interest in SCAs grows in non-coastal and politically conservative locations, the IN CCIA serves as one example of how a bottom-up assessment with limited funding can deliver credible climate science to diverse stakeholder groups in the absence of state-level mandates or direction and attract public attention over an extended period of time. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]