1. Combining probability with qualitative degree-of-certainty metrics in assessment
- Author
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Richard Bradley, Brian Hill, Casey Helgeson, Groupement de Recherche et d'Etudes en Gestion à HEC (GREGH), Ecole des Hautes Etudes Commerciales (HEC Paris)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), HEC Paris - Recherche - Hors Laboratoire, Ecole des Hautes Etudes Commerciales (HEC Paris), Department of Archaeology, University of Reading (UOR), HEC Research Paper Series, and Hill, Brian
- Subjects
Atmospheric Science ,010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences ,Operations research ,Computer science ,[SDE.MCG]Environmental Sciences/Global Changes ,media_common.quotation_subject ,Climate change ,B Philosophy (General) ,050905 science studies ,01 natural sciences ,[SHS.PHIL] Humanities and Social Sciences/Philosophy ,Consistency (database systems) ,Degree of certainty ,[SHS.ECO] Humanities and Social Sciences/Economics and Finance ,0105 earth and related environmental sciences ,media_common ,Global and Planetary Change ,business.industry ,05 social sciences ,[SHS.PHIL]Humanities and Social Sciences/Philosophy ,Usability ,Ambiguity ,Certainty ,[SHS.ECO]Humanities and Social Sciences/Economics and Finance ,[SDE.MCG] Environmental Sciences/Global Changes ,climate change ,uncertainty reporting ,[SHS.GESTION]Humanities and Social Sciences/Business administration ,confidence ,0509 other social sciences ,business ,GE Environmental Sciences ,Decision analysis - Abstract
International audience; Reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) employ an evolving framework of calibrated language for assessing and communicating degrees of certainty in findings. A persistent challenge for this framework has been ambiguity in the relationship between multiple degree-of-certainty metrics. We aim to clarify the relationship between the likelihood and confidence metrics used in the Fifth Assessment Report (2013), with benefits for mathematical consistency among multiple findings and for usability in downstream modeling and decision analysis. We discuss how our proposal meshes with current and proposed practice in IPCC uncertainty assessment.
- Published
- 2018