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Due to its potential geo-political and environmental implications, climate migration is an increasing concern to the international community. However, while there is considerable attention devoted to migration in response to sea-level rise, there is a limited understanding of human mobility due to freshwater and inland hydroclimatic changes. Hence, the aim of this paper is to examine the existing evidence on migration as an adaptation strategy due to freshwater and inland hydroclimatic changes. A meta-review of papers published between 2014 and 2019 yielded 67 publications, the majority of which focus on a handful of countries in the Global South. Droughts, floods, extreme heat, and changes in seasonal precipitation patterns were singled out as the most common hazards triggering migration. Importantly, most of the papers discuss mobility as part of a portfolio of responses. Motivations to migrate at the household level range from survival to searching for better economic opportunities. The outcomes of migration are mixed — spanning from higher incomes to difficulties in finding employment after moving and struggles with a higher cost of living. While remittances can be beneficial, migration does not always have a positive outcome for those who are left behind. Furthermore, this meta-review shows that migration, even when desired, is not an option for some of the most vulnerable households. These multifaceted results suggest that, while climate mobility is certainly happening due to freshwater and inland hydroclimatic changes, studies reviewing it are limited and substantial gaps remain in terms of geographical coverage, implementation assessments, and outcomes evaluation. We argue that these gaps need to be filled to inform climate and migration policies that increasingly need to be intertwined rather than shaped in isolation from each other. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Critical scholars on power relations and climate change adaptation have highlighted the lack of community participation as a consequence of unbalanced power operations. Evidence about how unequal power relations and subject formation constrain public participation, however, is under-studied. In this paper, we utilised the intersection between community participation and the subjectivities lens to examine how a hierarchical political structure systematically operates to influence community engagement in adaptation and how and why local communities are included or excluded from adaptation as a result of subject-making, using Vietnam as a case study. Using 66 semi-structured interviews and ten focus group discussions involving policymakers, practitioners, local authorities, and communities, we examined how the key respondents stereotyped local roles and capacity in agricultural adaptation activities. Applying content analysis, we found that the general population in Vietnam is often framed as lacking knowledge and capacity to respond to climate impacts. Reflected through a traditional government-led model in two agricultural adaptation projects, the study showed that subtle but pervasive subjectivities and subject-making processes constrain community participation by affecting perceptions and, subsequently, actions of key stakeholders, undermining local roles and capacity in undertaking adaptation. These perpetuate the power imbalance between local communities and government entities. The findings contribute to the prevailing scholarship of climate change adaptation that, under an authoritarian regime, local capacity is undermined not only by powerholders but also by community members as they consent to government decisions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Human health in Odisha is directly vulnerable to climate change in the form of mortality as a result of climate-induced natural disasters (CINDs) and heatwaves. More frequent and intensified CIND has become an inevitable part of the state and its impact on human health has been detrimental. The magnitude of the impact of climate change on human health depends on the vulnerability and adaptation approaches of the state. The objectives of the paper are to study the changing pattern of climatic variability over 20 years in the state and to analyze the direct impact of climate change on human health in Odisha. Linear trend analysis is performed for annual average, pre-monsoon, monsoon, and post-monsoon rainfall as well as annual maximum and minimum temperature and for the heatwave period to show the changing pattern of climate in the state over 20 years. Regression analysis is performed between the indexed value of vulnerability and adaptation coefficients considered in the study as independent variables and mortality due to CIND as the dependent variable to analyze the impact of climate change on human health in the state. Also, correlation analysis is conducted to show the association between heatwave mortality and the maximum temperature of the heatwave period. The rainfall trend of the state for 20 years from 2000 to 2020 is found to increase in pre-monsoon and post-monsoon periods, while the annual average rainfall of the state for 20 years is slightly increasing and the monsoon period rainfall has remained consistent throughout the years. The annual maximum and minimum temperature and the heatwave period are found to be increasing. The regression analysis has shown a significant positive relationship between vulnerability coefficients and mortality as a direct impact of CIND on human health, whereas adaptation coefficients exhibit negative relation with it. Also, there is a moderate but significant association between the maximum temperature of the heatwave period with heatwave mortality. Odisha has been vulnerable to climate change during 2000–2020 as indicated by the high vulnerability score compared to the adaptation score for each year. However, years with better adaptive approaches, having high adaptive index scores, experienced less human mortality even with high vulnerability scores. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Central American Dry Corridor (CADC) is among the most climate-vulnerable regions worldwide. Climate change, commonly referred to as a “threat multiplier” of pre-existing socioeconomic issues, already undermines rural livelihoods by reducing agricultural yields and income opportunities. This paper provides a review of climate-related migration in the CADC region while identifying the specific pathways by which climate change manifests itself as a threat multiplier to migration. Different forms of human mobility (seasonal/temporal/permanent and internal/international migration) are increasingly attempted as adaptation strategies by affected households to diversify incomes and offset climate impacts. Preferred intra-regional migrant destinations tend to be less climate-vulnerable and also less violent. Notably, climate change is not isolated from socioeconomic and political migration drivers. Erosion of rural livelihoods reduces the costs of engaging in illicit coping strategies (e.g., illegal crop production) and simultaneously favours rapid urbanisation, which is linked to (forced) gang recruitment, primarily affecting the youth. These processes contribute to extraordinarily high violence levels, which are a major push factor for migration on their own, ultimately challenging state authority. Moreover, as outmigration from the region is projected to increase, the observed securitisation of borders, particularly along the USA-Mexico border and the Mexico-Guatemala border, while unfit to limit migration attempts, make migration more desperate and dangerous, allowing organised crime to step in and exploit migration as an economic undertaking. Thus, for the CADC, the depoliticised and simplistic narrative of migration serving as adaptation must be questioned. Policy coherence and state capacity for addressing climate-security-migration nexus challenges are critical needs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Adaptation needs in high mountain communities are increasingly well documented, yet most efforts to address these needs continue to befall mountain people who have contributed little to the problem of climate change. This situation represents a contravention of accepted norms of climate justice and calls attention to the need for better understanding of prospects for externally resourced adaptation initiatives in high mountain areas. In response, this paper examines the architecture of formal adaptation support mechanisms organized through the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and how such mechanisms might help to meet adaptation needs in high mountain communities. It outlines key global adaptation initiatives organized through the UNFCCC, clarifies idealized linkages between these global adaptation initiatives and meeting local adaptation needs, and evaluates actual progress in connecting such support with discrete adaptation needs in the upper Manaslu region of Nepal. The paper then critically examines observed shortcomings in matching adaptation support organized through the UNFCCC with local adaptation needs, including complications stemming from the bureaucratic nature of formal adaptation support mechanisms, the intervening role of the state in delivering aid, and the ways in which these complexities intersect with the specific socio-cultural contexts of mountain communities. It concludes by highlighting several prospects for increasing the quantity and quality of adaptation support to mountain communities. These opportunities are considered alongside several salient concerns about formal adaptation support mechanisms in an effort to provide a well-rounded assessment of the prospects for planned adaptations in high mountain communities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change is likely to have significant impacts on the forestry sector in New Zealand. However, an understanding of how forest growers are reducing their risks from climate change impacts is still in its infancy. This paper applies the protection motivation theory to identify socio-psychological factors influencing forest growers' adaptation to climate change. This study presents the survey results from 60 forest growers who have the combined responsibility for managing more than 70% of New Zealand's plantation forests. We investigated whether their perceived response efficacy, self-efficacy and their understanding of response costs are predictors of their protective or adaptive measures. Based on our survey, risk reduction and risk spreading are the two types of protective measure frequently reported by the respondents to deal with climate risks. Consistent with the protection motivation theory, our findings show that respondents who are more likely to implement protective or adaptive measures if they perceive the threat severity to be high have high self-efficacy and resource efficacy, and exhibit low maladaptive responses such as evading and postponing behaviours. Furthermore, our findings also suggest that there is a low self-efficacy belief with strong maladaptive behaviour among the respondents that negatively influence their motivation to implement adaptation measures. This result provides guidance to policy makers, researchers and forest companies on how to make climate change adaptation efforts effective by considering the forest growers motivation to adapt to climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The objective of this paper is to analyze the impact of climate change adaptation strategies on maize productivity of farms focusing on gender differences. To do so, a selection model generalizing the Heckman (1979) approach and the Oaxaca and Blinder decomposition procedure are specified and estimated. The empirical analysis is based on intra-agricultural household data from the 2018 Harmonized Household Living Conditions Survey (EHCVM) of Togo with a total sample of 8622 maize plots disaggregated by seasonThe results reveal that the average maize productivity of men is about 23.5% higher than that of women. Similarly, the average maize productivity of married women is about 28.5% higher than that of unmarried women. This suggests that married men and women have greater adaptive capacity than their counterparts and are also more likely to improve their productivity. The factors that contribute to the performance of married men and women at the expense of their counterparts are secondary education, producer assets, and climate information. We also find that the use of improved seeds, off-season cropping, and a combination of both strategies are the types of coping strategies adopted by men and married women to increase their productivity. These results have implications for the direction of development policies. These development policies can be more targeted at unmarried women. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Investments in climate-change adaptation will have to be made while the extent of climate change is uncertain. However, some important sources of uncertainty will fall over time as more climate data become available. This paper investigates the effect on optimal investment decision-making of learning that reduces uncertainty. It develops a simple real options method to value options that are found in many climate-change adaptation contexts. This method modifies a binomial tree model frequently applied to climate-change adaptation problems, incorporating gradual learning using a Bayesian updating process driven by new observations of extreme events. It is used to investigate the timing, scale, or upgradable design of an adaptation project. Recognition that we might have more or different information in the future makes flexibility valuable. The amount of value added by flexibility and the ways in which flexibility should be exploited depend on how fast we learn about climate change. When learning will occur quickly, the value of the option to delay investment is high. When learning will occur slowly, the value of the option to build a small low-risk project instead of a large high-risk one is high. For intermediate cases, the option to build a small project that can be expanded in the future is high. The approach in this paper can support efficient decision-making on adaptation projects by anticipating that we gradually learn about climate change by the recurrence of extreme events. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper distinguishes between bridging and bonding social capital to assess their roles for individual farmers’ adaptation strategies taken through technology adoption. Based on primary data collected in Langcang River (LCR) basin area in southwestern China, the paper finds: (1) adaptation measures have been widely taken by surveyed households, but non-infrastructure-based measures are more prevalent than infrastructure-based measures and (2) surveyed households have strong social capital while having weak bridging social capital. Their bonding social capital has significantly positive relationship with their adaptation decisions, but bridging social capital does not have such statistically significant relationship. It recommends that the governments contemplate carefully how to help the poor to get a good combination of bonding and bridging social capital when designing policies to help the rural poor to improve their long-term adaptive capacity and achieve sustainable rural development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The present study contributes to the literature on labour reallocation and adaptation in response to weather anomalies. Existing literature on labour mobility and weather shocks primarily focus on migration to the neglect of worker commuting as a potential adaptation strategy. Utilizing individual-level panel data from the Village Dynamics in South Asia (VDSA) dataset for the year 2010–2014, the present study explores the impact of weather anomalies on migration and commuting as well as participation and earnings in the non-agricultural sector. The fixed effects regression results show that negative temperature shocks induce a flow of labour outside the village through labour out-migration and longer-distance commutes. Temperature stress also negatively impacts non-agricultural earnings. The effects of temperature shocks are heterogeneous across the baseline climate of the villages suggesting evidence of adaptation to weather shocks. The study emphasizes the crucial role of labour mobility and adaptation in coping with weather shocks. The paper concludes with some policy suggestions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines how climate change adaptation impacts on farm productivity and the ability of households to accumulate assets in the context of a developing economy. We apply an endogenous switching regression to data obtained from 1440 farmers in Ghana. Our model, which accounts for endogeneity and selection bias, allows us to simultaneously determine the factors that influence maize farmers’ decision to adapt to climate change and the productivity and household assets that result from both adaptation and otherwise. We estimate an inverse relationship between rainfall and the decision to adapt to climate change. As expected, we find that access to information has a positive effect on the decision to adapt. Farms that benefit from adaptation do not become less productive with increases in temperature or rainfall. Overall, we find that farmers who adapt to climate change are more productive and have more household assets than their counterfactual. Farmers who do not adapt obtain less yield and have less household assets than their counterfactual. These findings have important implications for policy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this case study, we examine a broad range of impacts on tourism and recreation based on projected changes to Indiana’s climate. The direct impacts of climate change on Indiana include increases in the number of hot and extremely hot days each summer, fewer mild days, more rain, and less snow. Each direct impact will affect tourism and recreation. Additionally, a range of indirect impacts are anticipated, including climate-related changes in health issues, new infrastructure needs, changes in forests and other recreational areas, and shifting consumer attitudes toward travel and recreation. Although direct impacts are predictable, indirect impacts on the complex tourism system are harder to anticipate, and the tourism and recreation industry must build resilience to respond to future change. The paper concludes with recommendations for future study. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we assess the quality of state-of-the-art regional climate information intended to support climate adaptation decision-making. We use the UK Climate Projections 2018 as an example of such information. Their probabilistic, global, and regional land projections exemplify some of the key methodologies that are at the forefront of constructing regional climate information for decision support in adapting to a changing climate. We assess the quality of the evidence and the methodology used to support their statements about future regional climate along six quality dimensions: transparency; theory; independence, number, and comprehensiveness of evidence; and historical empirical adequacy. The assessment produced two major insights. First, a major issue that taints the quality of UKCP18 is the lack of transparency, which is particularly problematic since the information is directed towards non-expert users who would need to develop technical skills to evaluate the quality and epistemic reliability of this information. Second, the probabilistic projections are of lower quality than the global projections because the former lack both transparency and a theory underpinning the method used to produce quantified uncertainty estimates about future climate. The assessment also shows how different dimensions are satisfied depending on the evidence used, the methodology chosen to analyze the evidence, and the type of statements that are constructed in the different strands of UKCP18. This research highlights the importance of knowledge quality assessment of regional climate information that intends to support climate change adaptation decisions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Beginning as an afterthought in the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, adaptation as an agenda has come a long way since 1992. With no ambitious mitigation, recent years have witnessed an increasing frequency of extreme climate events, including cross-border or borderless climate risks. Accordingly, the Paris Agreement frames adaptation as a global goal and global responsibility. However, financing for adaptation continues to remain extremely poor, relative to the estimated needs, even though the regime has obligatory provisions for support by developed countries. Why is this so? Why should the majority of the countries, with an insignificant contribution to causing the problem, suffer from increasing climate impacts? How can adaptation finance be enhanced at scale? As a response to these queries, the paper substantiates three claims: (1) that poor funding can be attributed to the territorial framing under the regime that conceptualizes adaptation largely as a local or national public good and, hence, the inefficacy of market mechanisms, (2) that it makes conceptual and political sense to consider adaptation as a global public good, and (3) that such a reframing should make a difference in boosting adaptation finance. In a multi-polar world with different views on adaptation finance, multilateral agencies should lead in promoting the proposed framing. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Sea levels will rise, even with stringent climate change mitigation. Mitigation will slow the rate of rise. There is limited knowledge on how the costs of coastal protection vary with alternative global warming levels of 1.5 to 4.0 °C. Analysing six sea-level rise scenarios (0.74 to 1.09 m, 50th percentile) across these warming levels, and five Shared Socioeconomic Pathways, this paper quantifies the economic costs of flooding and protection due to sea-level rise using the Dynamic Interactive Vulnerability Assessment (DIVA) modelling framework. Results are presented for World Bank income groups and five selected countries from the present to 2100. Annual sea flood damage costs without additional adaptation are more influenced by socio-economic development than sea-level rise, indicating that there are opportunities to control risk with development choices. In contrast, annual sea dike investment costs are more dependent on the magnitude of sea-level rise. In terms of total costs with adaptation, upper middle, low middle and low income groups are projected to have higher relative costs as a proportion of GDP compared with high income groups. If low income countries protected now, flood costs could be reduced after 2050 and beyond. However, without further adaptation, their coasts will experience growing risks and costs leaving them increasingly reliant on emergency response measures. Without mitigation or adaptation, greater inequalities in damage costs between income groups could result. At country level, annual sea flood damage costs without additional adaptation are projected to rapidly increase with approximately 0.2 m of sea-level rise, leaving limited time to plan and adapt. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Drought is known as a “creeping disaster” because drought impacts are usually noticed months or years after a drought begins. In the Pacific Island Countries and Territories (PICTs), there is almost no ability to tell when a drought will begin or end, especially for droughts other than meteorological droughts. Monitoring, forecasting and managing drought in the PICTs is complex due to the variety of different ways droughts occur, and the diverse direct and indirect causes and consequences of drought, across the PICT region. For example, the impacts of drought across the PICTs vary significantly depending on (i) the type of drought (e.g. meteorological drought or agricultural drought); (ii) the location (e.g. high islands versus atolls); (iii) socioeconomic conditions in the location affected by drought; and (iv) cultural attitudes towards the causes of drought (e.g. a punishment from God versus a natural process that is potentially predictable and something that can be managed). This paper summarises what is known and unknown about drought impacts in the PICTs and provides recommendations to guide future research and investment towards minimising the negative impacts of droughts when they inevitably occur in the PICTs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper provides insights into the handling of climate change issues related to cultural heritage at different government decision levels dealing with physical planning, and in particular roads. Data are derived from a qualitative analysis of official reports and interviews with local and regional planners in three Swedish regions with contrasting climates. The theoretical lens of Institutional Interplay is applied to an analysis grouped into six themes: Climate threats to cultural heritage, Adaptation measures, Preparedness, Institutional preconditions, Institutional interplay, and Challenges. The results suggest that despite a strong environmental reputation internationally, Sweden is not particularly well prepared for dealing with future climate change impacts on cultural heritage and landscape. The lack of national standards and standardised methods risks regional and sectoral variation in the treatment of similar tasks, a problem which deficiencies in knowledge and continuing education are perpetuating. The degree to which discussions and cooperation occur between divisions within the same authority, between authorities, and in national networks varies considerably. Routines and criteria for prioritisation of cultural heritage mitigation, essential under conditions of limited resources, have yet to have been implemented. We conclude with five recommendations for improving the planning process with respect to climate change risks to cultural heritage. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Rural coastal fishery systems in tropical island nations are undergoing rapid change. Using a case study from eastern Sri Lanka, this paper examines the ways in which indigenous Coastal-Vedda fishers experience and respond to such change. We conducted semi-structured interviews (n = 74), focus group discussions (n = 17, 98 participants), and key informant interviews (n = 38) over a 2-year period (2016–2019). The changes that most Coastal-Vedda fishers experience are disturbance from Sri Lankan ethnic war, changes in climate and the frequency and severity of natural disasters, increased frequency of human-elephant conflicts, increasingly unpredictable weather patterns, and transformation of the Coastal-Vedda due to social modernisation. We used a resilience-based conceptual framework focusing on place, human agency, collective action and collaboration, institutions, indigenous and local knowledge systems, and learning to examine fishers' responses to rapid changes. We identified three community-level adaptive strategies used by the Coastal-Vedda: adaptive institutions with a multi-level institutional structure that facilitates collective action and collaboration, the use of culture-based fisheries (CBF), and diversification of livelihoods. We also recognized four place-specific attributes that shaped community adaptations: cultural identity and worldviews, co-management of CBF, flexibility in choosing adaptive options, and indigenous and local knowledge systems and learning. These adaptive strategies and place-specific attributes provide new insights for scientists, policymakers, and communities in the region, enabling them to more effectively work together to support community adaptation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Largely dependent on rain-fed agriculture, the West African populations could be severely impacted by climate change and variability. In this paper, we performed a literature review relating to perceptions of climate change and variability in West Africa, followed by an in-depth comparison between perceptions by rural dwellers of Burkina Faso and trends in meteorological data to discuss the importance of perceptions vis-à-vis climate trends in migration decision. Results showed that respondents perceived increasing temperature and worsening rainfall conditions over 1988–2007 matching with findings of previous studies but inconsistent with the trends observed in rainfall data. Given that climate change is recognized as a key driver of mobility on the one hand and the fact that climate change perceptions influence decision to migrate on the other hand, our results suggest to jointly include perceptions and climate data in future research on environmental migration in order to improve the understanding of household's decision in response to climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Though a small fraction of the US citizenry, agricultural producers are directly responsible for the stewardship of almost half of the country's land. This group is therefore an especially important one to understand from the standpoint of how they process and respond to science as it relates to agroecological phenomena. Data from a sample (n = 111) of farmers and ranchers located in the US state of Colorado are used to expand our understanding of how food producers process scientific claims. These insights, I argue, help us think through public understandings of science more generally. Using semi-structured interviews, the paper unpacks an identified asymmetry in how respondents perceive climate science and the science associated with genetically modified food and seed. These tensions are interrogated with the help of a novel methodological design that generated data converted to shading matrices—also known as heat maps. The heat maps illuminate certain cultural values among respondents, which were reinforced by motivated reasoning. This allows for an interrogation of tensions and inconsistencies in respondents' remarks about a variety of scientific claims. The heat maps, coupled with the qualitative data, allow for an exploration into how respondents perceive certain salient socio-technical issues. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Farmers' subjective perceptions of climatic changes are not always in line with historic climate observations. Adaptation decisions based on these perceptions thus remain controversial. The paper therefore relates to the following questions: First, what are farmers' perceptions of climatic changes? Second, do they correlate with observations from climatic data? Third, how do farmers respond and what are the factors determining adaptation? The analysis is based on household survey data from a sample of 900 farmers in rural Tanzania and secondary data from local meteorological stations. We find that farmers' perception of a rising average temperature over time is generally confirmed. This is not the case for rainfall: farmers perceive that annual rainfall amount decreased, while climate data rather shows no change in the amount, but indicates a change in the rainfall pattern. However, we do find only a weak link between farmers' perception and their behavior. Although farmers perceive climatic changes to happen and to affect them, some choose to not adapt at all and many only react in an evasive way, i.e., by coping measures that will not protect their household from future damage. Only a small share of farmers chose investment-intensive long-term strategies such as irrigation systems. Results confirm that a limited adaptive capacity plays a role, but also reveal the intention to adapt as a relevant factor. This is represented by the farmers' loss experience due to climatic shocks and personality traits. This approach gives a more complete picture of the farmers' adaptation decision. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Small community businesses bear the brunt of climate change impacts. Studies of the vulnerability and resilience of such businesses predominantly focus on firm-level characteristics and organizational issues. This paper addresses the lack of individual-level considerations. It explores an analytical approach that draws upon the concepts of social capital and sense of place for understanding community businesses' resilience to extreme weather. An empirical study was conducted to investigate whether and how the attributes of these concepts are related to adaptation practice. This study is based on a structured questionnaire survey of community businesses at various locations around the Pearl River Estuary that are exposed to storm surges. The findings partially support the hypothesis that action is more likely to be taken when social capital is strong. Community businesses are more likely to adopt adaptation strategies when their owners or operators perceive a higher level of social expectation, but are less likely to do so when they have better relationships with the people around them. This study indicated the potential for moral hazard driven by good social relationships and supported the understanding of small community businesses as firms and social agents in responding to climate change impacts. There is a need for recognizing the social dimensions of small businesses' rationality in their adaptation and hazard adjustment, and strengthening their engagement with community-based adaptation through social institutions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change is a potential threat to achieving food security, particularly in the most food insecure regions. However, interpreting climate change projections to better understand the potential impacts of a changing climate on food security outcomes is challenging. This paper addresses this challenge through presenting a framework that enables rapid country-level assessment of vulnerability to food insecurity under a range of climate change and adaptation investment scenarios. The results show that vulnerability to food insecurity is projected to increase under all emissions scenarios, and the geographic distribution of vulnerability is similar to that of the present-day; parts of sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia are most severely affected. High levels of adaptation act to off-set these increases; however, only the scenario with the highest level of mitigation combined with high levels of adaptation shows improvements in vulnerability compared to the present-day. The results highlight the dual requirement for mitigation and adaptation to avoid the worst impacts of climate change and to make gains in tackling food insecurity. The approach is an update to the existing Hunger and Climate Vulnerability Index methodology to enable future projections, and the framework presented allows rapid updates to the results as and when new information becomes available, such as updated country-level yield data or climate model output. This approach provides a framework for assessing policy-relevant human food security outcomes for use in long-term climate change and food security planning; the results have been made available on an interactive website for policymakers (www.metoffice.gov.uk/food-insecurity-index). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Cattle ranchers and dairy farmers operating throughout many tropical regions are experiencing major challenges associated with climate change such as higher incidence of heat stress and drought. These effects can result in reduced productivity of rangeland, shortage of nutritional feed, increased heat stress on animals, and high energy costs for cooling. High temperatures and resultant heat stress reduce animal productivity and increase the proliferation and survival of parasites and disease pathogens. Warming reduces the ability of dairy cattle to produce milk and gain weight and can also lower conception rates. This paper reviews research from the Caribbean on heat tolerant traits in bovine and presents evidence that introducing a “slick hair” gene into Holstein cows by crossbreeding with Senepols may increase thermo-tolerance and productivity. As in other parts of the tropics, principal cattle breeds in Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands have been largely introduced from temperate regions. Research indicates these animals may be poorly adapted to rising temperatures, leaving them increasingly vulnerable to chronic heat stress and reduced productivity. Adaptive practices have been developed in breeding and pasture management programs including selection for more heat-resistant genotypes, silvopasturing and crop diversification in forage production, and optimizing facilities and practices to reduce heat stress. Given the nature of climate vulnerability, an integrated approach to adaptation will likely have the greatest success in reducing future risk for producers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There is limited knowledge on institutional factors constraining and enabling climate change adaptation in Arctic regions, or the overall readiness of governing bodies and communities to develop, implement, and promote adaptation. This paper examines the preparedness of different levels of government to adapt in the Canadian Arctic territory of Nunavut, drawing upon semi-structured interviews with government personnel and organizations involved in adaptation. In the Government of Nunavut, there have been notable developments around adaptation planning and examples of adaptation champions, but readiness for adaptation is challenged by a number of factors including the existence of pressing socio-economic problems, and institutional and governmental barriers. Federally, there is evidence of high-level leadership on adaptation, the creation of adaptation programs, and allocation of funds for adaptation, although the focus has been mostly on researching adaptation options as opposed to supporting actual actions or policy change. The 2016 Pan-Canadian Framework on Clean Growth and Climate Change, and increasing emphasis on climate change federally and in the Government of Nunavut, offer opportunities for advancing adaptation, but concrete steps are needed to ensure readiness is enhanced. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The impacts of climate change to the dryland areas of East Africa are especially strong, especially if it is considered that these areas have weak institutions and governance systems. Climate change has also affected many rural communities in a severe way, reducing crop yields and sometimes causing crop failure. In Kenya and Tanzania, where drylands cover over around 80 and 50% of their respective land areas, rural populations have been especially affected. Among them is the tribal group of the Maasai, legendary nomad warriors, who have been suffering from persistent droughts and the negative impacts on their cattle herds. This paper describes how climate change affects the Maasai communities in Kenya and the changes seen in their habits and diet, in order to adapt to a changing climate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Coffee is grown in more than 60 tropical countries on over 11 million ha by an estimated 25 million farmers, most of whom are smallholders. Several regional studies demonstrate the climate sensitivity of coffee ( Coffea arabica) and the likely impact of climate change on coffee suitability, yield, increased pest and disease pressure and farmers' livelihoods. The objectives of this paper are (i) to quantify the impact of progressive climate change to grow coffee and to produce high quality coffee in Nicaragua and (ii) to develop an adaptation framework across time and space to guide adaptation planning. We used coffee location and cup quality data from Nicaragua in combination with the Maxent and CaNaSTA crop suitability models, the WorldClim historical data and the CMIP3 global circulation models to predict the likely impact of climate change on coffee suitability and quality. We distinguished four different impact scenarios: Very high (coffee disappears), high (large negative changes), medium (little negative changes) and increase (positive changes) in climate suitability. During the Nicaraguan coffee roundtable, most promising adaptation strategies were identified, which we then used to develop a two-dimensional adaptation framework for coffee in time and space. Our analysis indicates that incremental adaptation may occur over short-term horizons at lower altitudes, whereas the same areas may undergo transformative adaptation in the longer term. At higher elevations incremental adaptation may be needed in the long term. The same principle and framework is applicable across coffee growing regions around the world. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper proposes to model the long-run impact of climate change on olive oil output in Tunisia - the third largest olive oil producing country in the world - using panel cointegration techniques. The long-run analysis reveals that rising temperatures and inappropriate working tools reduce olive output in semi-arid areas. Therefore, we propose an appropriate training for workers to develop their skills and a public policy subsidizing the innovation of used capital stock, at least in the southern regions. We propose to encourage the development of drought-tolerant olive trees - especially in the south of Tunisia, where global warming has caused a severe drought. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Deltas around the globe are facing a multitude of intensifying environmental change and development-linked pressures. One key concern is the reduction in the quantity of suspended sediment reaching and building floodplains. Sediment deposition provides multiple services to deltaic social-ecological systems, in particular, countering the subsidence of the delta-body, and providing plentiful nutrients. Experiencing particularly rapid change is the Vietnamese Mekong Delta (VMD). In An Giang Province an increasing number of high dyke rings, which exclude the flood and facilitate triple rice-cropping, simultaneously prevent much of the sediment load from reaching the floodplain. This paper explores the trade-offs implicit in the decision to shift from (i) doublecropping (higher sediment deposition) to (ii) triple cropping (lower sediment deposition) by asking: what is the impact of the shift on VMD farmers? Is it sustainable? And what is the significance of the associated sediment exclusion? A novel survey of An Giang rice farmers was conducted, investigating key agricultural practices, and uniquely, the farmers' estimates of annual sediment deposition depth. The survey elicits some key changes under the adapted system (ii), particularly, unsustainable trajectories in the yield to fertiliser ratio which penalise land-poor farmers. Furthermore, the value (to farmers) of the sediment contribution to agricultural fertilisation which is lost due to triple-cropping is estimated at USD 15 (±5) million annually. We argue that our growing understanding of the importance of sediment in the deltaic social-ecological system may be revealing an emergent risk; arising from conflicting long and short-term adaptation and agricultural development objectives. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]