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There is a growing concern that countries should reduce their dependence on fossil fuels for electricity generation and look to other cleaner technologies. Hydroelectricity is one such option. However, given that hydropower is dependent on rainfall and associated runoff for power generation, it is susceptible to both the positive and negative impacts of climate change, such as increases in temperature and changes in precipitation and runoff. In this paper, impacts on hydropower generation have been organised as either changes in long-term trends or short-term variability and shocks. These impacts could either manifest themselves as direct impacts on hydropower generation potential or as indirect impacts (or ancillary impacts) such as increased competition for water. Citing examples from around the world, this paper investigates the scale of these projected impacts, and the potential cost implication of inaction. It concludes by making recommendations for possible adaptive options to build resilience in response to local impacts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Droughts have adverse socioeconomic, agricultural, and environmental impacts that can be reduced by assessing and forecasting drought behavior. The paper presents detailed analyses of both meteorological and vegetative droughts over the period from 1970 to 2005. Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) have been used to quantify drought according to severity, magnitude and spatial distribution at the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan. Results suggest that the country faced during the past 35 years frequent non-uniform drought periods in an irregular repetitive manner. Drought severity, magnitudes and life span increased with time from normal to extreme levels especially at last decade reaching magnitudes of more than 4. Generated NDVI maps spatial analyses estimate crop-area percentage damage due to severe and extremely severe drought events occurred during October, December, and February of 2000 to be about 10%, 45%, and 30%, respectively. In response to drought spatial extent, the paper suggest the presence of two drought types, local drought acting on one or more geographical climatic parts and national drought, of less common but more severe, that extend over the whole country. Droughts in Jordan act intensively during January, February and March and tend to shift position with time by alternative migrations from southern desert parts to northern desert parts and from the eastern desert parts to highlands and Jordan Rift Valley (JRV) at the west. The paper also investigates the potential use of Global Climate Model's (GCM) to forecast future drought events from 2010 till 2040. Tukey HSD test indicates that ECHAM5OM GCM is capable to predicted rainfall variation at the country and suggests future droughts to become more intensive at the northern and southern desserts with 15% rainfall reduction factor, followed by 10% reduction at the JRV, and 5% at the highlands. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Cities are particularly vulnerable to climate change and climate extremes in part because they concentrate many activities, people and wealth in limited areas. As a result they represent an important scale for assessment and understanding of climate change impacts. This paper provides a conceptual and methodological framework for urban economic impact assessment of climate change. The focus of the paper is on model-based analysis of future scenarios, including a framing of uncertainty for these projections, as one valuable input into the decision-making process. The paper highlights the main assessment difficulties, methods and tools, and selected examples across these areas. A number of challenges are unique to climate change impact assessment and others are unique to the problem of working at local scales. The paper also identifies the need for additional research, including the need for more integrated and systemic approaches to address climate change as a part of the urban development challenge as well as the need to assess the economic impacts of climate change and response policy at local scale. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The first part of this paper demonstrated the existence of bias in GCM-derived precipitation series, downscaled using either a statistical technique (here the Statistical Downscaling Model) or dynamical method (here high resolution Regional Climate Model HadRM3) propagating to river flow estimated by a lumped hydrological model. This paper uses the same models and methods for a future time horizon (2080s) and analyses how significant these projected changes are compared to baseline natural variability in four British catchments. The UKCIP02 scenarios, which are widely used in the UK for climate change impact, are also considered. Results show that GCMs are the largest source of uncertainty in future flows. Uncertainties from downscaling techniques and emission scenarios are of similar magnitude, and generally smaller than GCM uncertainty. For catchments where hydrological modelling uncertainty is smaller than GCM variability for baseline flow, this uncertainty can be ignored for future projections, but might be significant otherwise. Predicted changes are not always significant compared to baseline variability, less than 50% of projections suggesting a significant change in monthly flow. Insignificant changes could occur due to climate variability alone and thus cannot be attributed to climate change, but are often ignored in climate change studies and could lead to misleading conclusions. Existing systematic bias in reproducing current climate does impact future projections and must, therefore, be considered when interpreting results. Changes in river flow variability, important for water management planning, can be easily assessed from simple resampling techniques applied to both baseline and future time horizons. Assessing future climate and its potential implication for river flows is a key challenge facing water resource planners. This two-part paper demonstrates that uncertainty due to hydrological and climate modelling must and can be accounted for to provide sound, scientifically-based advice to decision makers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The EU project BALANCE (Global Change Vulnerabilities in the Barents region: Linking Arctic Natural Resources, Climate Change and Economies) aims to assess vulnerability to climate change in the Barents Sea Region. As a prerequisite the potential impact of climate change on selected ecosystems of the study area has to be quantified, which is the subject of the present paper. A set of ecosystem models was run to generate baseline and future scenarios for 1990, 2020, 2050 and 2080. The models are based on data from the Regional Climate Model (REMO), driven by a GCM which in turn is forced by the IPCC-B2 scenario. The climate change is documented by means of the Köppen climate classification. Since the multitude of models requires the effect of climate change on individual terrestrial and marine systems to be integrated, the paper concentrates on a standardised visualisation of potential impacts by use of a Geographical Information System for the timeslices 2050 and 2080. The resulting maps show that both terrestrial and marine ecosystems of the Barents region will undergo significant changes until both 2050 and 2080. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change is likely to present new and substantially unpredictable challenges to human societies. The prospect is of particular concern at the local and regional levels, since vulnerability and adaptive capacity are location-specific and many decisions regarding climate-induced risks are made at those levels. In this light, one is compelled to survey stakeholders' understandings of their situation and perceived problems. Assessments should also include the context of other ongoing changes, such as globalisation, that will impact communities and exacerbate their vulnerabilities. This paper presents an assessment of vulnerability and adaptive capacity in the forestry sector in the Pite River basin in northern Sweden. The study was carried out using a multi-method design encompassing literature surveys, interviews with stakeholders, and stakeholder meetings. The paper concludes that while climate change will have an impact on the region, its effect will be superseded by that of broader socio-economic changes. The results illustrate the need to understand local and regional perceptions of adaptation in formulating appropriate policy measures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Global climate change and its regional manifestation will result in significant impacts in the European North. However, in order to determine the consequences of such impacts, a holistic, integrated assessment is needed. This paper sets the stage for the remainder of this volume by describing an attempt to derive such an assessment for the Barents Sea Region through the EU-funded BALANCE project. The paper explains some of the major methodologies employed in the study. It also provides insight into major results obtained and attempts to answer a number of overarching questions. It will be shown that climate change does present a significant threat to environmental and societal integrity in the study region. However, it will also be shown that stakeholders regard other drivers of future changes (economical, political developments) at least as equally important for their personal lives. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A response to the commentary on the article "No harvest was reaped: demographic and climatic factors in the decline of the Neo-Assyrian Empire" is presented. The authors note that the premise of their original paper and its purpose has been misread and misjudged. They also stresses that the larger point of their article has been missed out where the proxy records indicate a shift towards drier conditions.

A changing climate and more frequent extreme weather events pose challenges to the oil and gas sector. Identifying how these changes will affect oil and gas extraction, transportation, processing, and delivery, and how these industries can adapt to or mitigate any adverse impacts will be vital to this sector's supply security. This work presents an overview of the sector's vulnerability to a changing climate. It addresses the potential for Natech hazards and proposes risk reduction measures, including mitigation and adaptation options. Assessment frameworks to ensure the safety of people, the environment, and investments in the oil and gas sector in the face of climate change are presented and their limitations discussed. It is argued that a comprehensive and systemic analysis framework for risk assessment is needed. The paper concludes that climate change and extreme weather events represent a real physical threat to the oil and gas sector, particularly in low-lying coastal areas and areas exposed to extreme weather events. The sector needs to take climate change seriously, assess its own vulnerability, and take appropriate measures to prevent or mitigate any potentially negative effects. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Ongoing global warming not only involves changes in temperature and the global mean; it affects more or less every part of the climate. Regional temperature changes are often greater or smaller than corresponding changes in the global mean. In some cases the direction of change may also be different. For example, temperature changes are higher over land than over the ocean. Precipitation increases in some regions but decreases in others. Changes in extreme events may differ from changes in the corresponding mean. Present scientific knowledge clearly indicates that the already observed global trend towards warmer conditions will continue and that it will be accompanied by changes in yet other aspects of climate. This paper highlights, as a brief review, aspects of our changing climate from the available scientific knowledge with a bearing on the energy sector. Its focus is on temperature and precipitation, with some consideration of wind and sea level, among others. While uncertainties remain as far as the magnitude of future global-scale changes is concerned, and even more so their many regional patterns, significant changes are foreseen in, for example, global and regional temperature and precipitation, sea level rise, and in the characteristics of various extreme events. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper discusses the coal cycle from exploration through mining to end uses and environmental remediation, primarily from the perspective of elements in the cycle that are most vulnerable to the impacts of climatic change. The differences between resource estimates are noted. Coal transport by rail, barge, and ocean-going vessels are compared. The major end-use technologies are mentioned in the context of the coal value chain. Water availability is identified as a major uncertainty that could be further complicated by climate change. The major flows that are produced by down-stream cleanup of environmental emissions are discussed in terms of the movement of bulk solids. Typical impacts of temperature change, changes in precipitation, sea level rise, and decrease in sea ice in this cycle are summarized. Finally, while noting the negative impacts of climate changes in the Arctic, the opportunities that may arise from these are also discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Extreme weather events and changed climate parameters have impacts on power plants and their connected infrastructures. Therefore, adaptation, especially in the context of a changing climate and a resulting shift in the intensity and frequency of extreme events, is necessary. Thermal power plants are subject to a diversity of extreme weather impacts, making them vulnerable if not adapted. In this paper, the impacts of extreme weather events on thermal power plants are first identified and structured. Then selected adaptation options for thermal power plants are presented. Three major types of adaptation option are identified: adaptation of cooling, infrastructure, and sites. The Supplementary Material introduces a GIS-based (Geographic Information System) decision-support tool for power plant adaptation and planning. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper illustrates the potential impact of future climate change on the archaeological resource of river catchments, specifically in Britain, but with reference to other examples across the globe, when considering issues of generic applicability. It highlights an area of the environmental record often neglected by policy makers and environmental planners when considering the impact of climate change; where cultural heritage has been considered in the past, an emphasis has been placed on the historic built environment and major monuments. Through studying the recent past, particularly the last 1,000 years, geomorphologists and geoarchaeologists can add much empirical data to these debates concerning system response. In addition to the impact of the changing intensity and pattern of natural geomorphic processes, human response to climate change ranging from new farming practices through to the implementation of mitigation strategies to minimise the effects of increased flood frequency and magnitude could be equally as damaging to the archaeological record if not managed through informed decision making. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Ecosystem changes in floodplains could be a major issue during the twenty-first century as designated habitat areas are affected by climate change and floodplain management options. As part of the RegIS project, a Regional Impact Simulator has been developed to investigate these potential changes. This paper presents the methodologies and results of biodiversity metamodels used within the Regional Impact Simulator for two regions of the UK: East Anglia and North West England. Potential impacts and adaptations to future climate and socio-economic scenarios are analysed for three habitat types in floodplains (saltmarsh, coastal grazing marsh and fluvial grazing marsh) and selected species. An important finding is that management choices, which can be linked to socio-economic futures have a greater potential impact on habitat viability than climate change. The choices society makes will therefore be key to protection and conservation of biodiversity. The analyses also show that coastal grazing marsh is the most vulnerable habitat to sea-level rise, although there is a scope for substituting losses with fluvial grazing marsh. These results indicate that these methods provide a useful approach for assessing potential biodiversity changes at the regional scale, including the effect of different policies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Reindeer husbandry represents a major land use in the Barents region, and has been predicted to be adversely affected by climate change. This paper considers the likely response of reindeer husbandry to changes both in climate and in socio-economic circumstances in the four countries of the Barents region from 1990 to 2080. Key natural factors include vegetation distribution, and a range of meteorological variables including temperature, wind, snow cover and freezing of rivers. The potential impact of these factors is evaluated quantitatively using the tolerable windows method, the results of which indicate a general but spatially non-uniform decline in the suitability of the region for reindeer husbandry. Relevant socio-economic factors include regional patterns of politics, management and knowledge. A focus on herders' own perceptions of environmental change and flexibility of response, derived particularly from study sites in Russia, suggests that models of vulnerability to climate change should be tempered by paying greater attention to changes in socio-economic factors. When compared with the potential effect of changing these socioeconomic factors, the vulnerability of reindeer husbandry to projected climate change appears to be comparatively small. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The question of appropriate timing and stringency of future greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reductions remains an issue in the discussion of mitigation responses to the climate change problem. It has been argued that our near-term action should be guided by a long-term vision for the climate, possibly a long-term temperature target. In this paper, we review proposals for long-term climate targets to avoid 'dangerous' climate change. Using probability estimates of climate sensitivity from the literature, we then generate probabilistic emissions scenarios that satisfy temperature targets of 2.0, 2.5, and 3.0°C above pre-industrial levels with no overshoot. Our interest is in the implications of these targets on abatement requirements over the next 50 years. If we allow global industrial GHG emissions to peak in 2025 at 14 GtCeq, and wish to achieve a 2.0°C target with at least 50% certainty, we find that the low sensitivity estimate in the literature suggests our industrial emissions must fall to 9 GtCeq by 2050: equal to the level in 2000. However, the average literature sensitivity estimate suggests the level must be less than 2 GtCeq; and in the high sensitivity case, the target is simply unreachable unless we allow for overshoot. Our results suggest that in light of the uncertainty in our knowledge of the climate sensitivity, a long-term temperature target (such as the 2.0°C target proposed by the European Commission) can provide limited guidance to near-term mitigation requirements. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Potential global climate change impacts on hydrology pose a threat to water resources systems throughout the world. The California water system is especially vulnerable to global warming due to its dependence on mountain snow accumulation and the snowmelt process. Since 1983, more than 60 studies have investigated climate change impacts on hydrology and water resources in California. These studies can be categorized in three major fields: (1) Studies of historical trends of streamflow and snowpack in order to determine if there is any evidence of climate change in the geophysical record; (2) Studies of potential future predicted effects of climate change on streamflow and; (3) Studies that use those predicted changes in natural runoff to determine their economic, ecologic, or institutional impacts. In this paper we review these studies with an emphasis on methodological procedures. We provide for each category of studies a summary of significant conclusions and potential areas for future work. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]