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Lobbying is considered to be an important factor in the success or failure of climate change legislation. This paper provides an estimate of lobbying expenditures related to climate change legislation in the U.S. Congress from 2000 to 2016. During this time period, over $2 billion was spent on this activity, constituting 3.9% of total lobbying expenditures. Major sectors involved in lobbying were fossil fuel and transportation corporations, utilities, and affiliated trade associations. Expenditures by these sectors dwarf those of environmental organizations and renewable energy corporations. Levels of expenditures on lobbying appear to be related to the introduction and probability of passage of significant climate legislation. Future research should focus on tying particular positions on climate legislation and lobbying expenditures at the corporate level. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, a model for the distribution of the Global Carbon Budget between the countries of the world is presented. The model is based on the criteria of equity while also taking into account the different historical responsibilities. The Global Carbon Budget corresponds to the quantity of carbon dioxide emissions that can still be released into the atmosphere while maintaining the increase in the average earth surface temperature below 2 °C, and it is therefore compatible with the long-term objective defined in the Paris Agreement. The results of applying the model are shown both for the 15 emitters that currently top the ranking for world emissions as well as for the other countries, which are grouped together in three main groups: Other African, Other Latin American and Caribbean, and the Rest of the World. Mitigation curves compatible with the carbon budget allocated to the different countries are presented. When comparing each emitter’s historical emissions for the period 1971-2010 with the proposed distribution for the period 2011-2050 obtained using the model, it can be seen that developed countries must face the future with a greatly reduced carbon budget, whereas developing countries can make use of a carbon budget that is higher than their cumulative historical emissions. Finally, there is a discussion about how a model with these characteristics could be useful when implementing the Paris Agreement. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Adaptation gaps are shortcomings of a system responding to climate change, whereas adaptation deficits are shortcomings in providing services. These two drivers for adaptation are often in conflict in many secondary cities in the global south (SCGS). It is possible to align these seemingly conflicting drivers into a productive unity, a conceptual alignment, which is the first step in achieving harmony while implementing adaptation actions. This paper focuses on the practical aspects of implementing aligned adaptation action that leads to improvements in liveability, sustainability, and resilience of SCGS. At an abstract level, the nature of the adaptation problem is similar to the complex problems identified in various domains, such as software development, manufacturing, and supply chain management. The widely accepted “agile principles”—used in the above domains—is the basis for developing a set of twelve principles for urban adaptation, which are synthesized from numerous recent studies that have implicitly proposed or applied most of these principles to climate change adaptation in urban settings. These principles lead to four essential objectives appertaining to the process of sustainable urban adaptation. The urban agile principles are used to analyze the current state of adaptation of Can Tho City in Vietnam and to ascertain the agile ways of addressing its adaptation challenges. Analysis of the outcomes shows that harmonized approaches can simultaneously address both adaptation deficits and gaps. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The lack of resilience of urban systems to weather and climate variability—termed type I adaptation—and also to climate change—type II adaptation—are both major challenges to the livability and sustainability of cities in the Global South. However, there is often competition and conflict in these cities between actions that address existing adaptation deficits (type I) and projected adaptation gaps (type II). Extending the concept of the environmental Kuznets curve, this paper argues that synergistic action on type I and type II adaptation is essential in order for these cities to maintain their livability and build resilience to climate variability and climate change in the face of growing urban populations. A proposed unifying framework has been demonstrated in Can Tho, Vietnam, where there are significant adaptation deficits due to rapid urbanization and adaptation gaps due to climate change and socioeconomic changes. The analysis in Can Tho reveals the lack of integration between type I and type II measures that could be overcome by closer integration between various stakeholders in terms of planning, prioritizing, and implementing adaptation measures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

One of the most important interactions between humans and climate is in the demand and supply of water. Humans withdraw, use, and consume water and return waste water to the environment for a variety of socioeconomic purposes, including domestic, commercial, and industrial use, production of energy resources and cooling thermal-electric power plants, and growing food, fiber, and chemical feed stocks for human consumption. Uncertainties in the future human demand for water interact with future impacts of climatic change on water supplies to impinge on water management decisions at the international, national, regional, and local level, but until recently tools were not available to assess the uncertainties surrounding these decisions. This paper demonstrates the use of a multi-model framework in a structured sensitivity analysis to project and quantify the sensitivity of future deficits in surface water in the context of climate and socioeconomic change for all U.S. states and sub-basins. The framework treats all sources of water demand and supply consistently from the world to local level. The paper illustrates the capabilities of the framework with sample results for a river sub-basin in the U.S. state of Georgia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The private sector's role in climate finance is increasingly subject to political and scientific debate. Yet there is poor empirical evidence of private engagement in adaptation and its potential contribution to the industrialised countries' mobilisation of USD 100 billion of annual climate finance from 2020 onwards to support developing countries to address climate change. This paper analysed 101 case studies of private sector adaptation under the Private Sector Initiative (PSI) of the UNFCCC Nairobi work programme, and examined these against ten 'adaptation finance criteria' that were distilled from UN climate negotiation outcomes. Results show that private adaptation interventions complement public adaptation activities. Yet the ten adaptation finance criteria are not met, which demonstrates that the diplomatic UNFCCC conceptualisation of financing adaptation is dissonant from the private sector reality. For example, while the case studies' investments are 'new and additional' to Official Development Assistance (ODA), their 'predictability' remains unclear. And despite some commitment for 'up-scaling', plans and associated costs for doing so remain undisclosed. Developed countries' role in 'mobilising' private financial resources under the PSI seems limited. It is unrealistic to expect that the UNFCCC alters existing criteria to suit private initiatives, or that the private sector aligns its initiatives to meet existing criteria. This paper advocates monitoring and reporting only of those private investments that principally finance adaptation. This practical way forward would allow private finance to meet criteria such as predictability, transparency, and mobilisation, but would drastically reduce the amount of private investment that could contribute to reaching the USD 100 billion climate finance target. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents an assessment of the implications of climate change for global river flood risk. It is based on the estimation of flood frequency relationships at a grid resolution of 0.5 × 0.5°, using a global hydrological model with climate scenarios derived from 21 climate models, together with projections of future population. Four indicators of the flood hazard are calculated; change in the magnitude and return period of flood peaks, flood-prone population and cropland exposed to substantial change in flood frequency, and a generalised measure of regional flood risk based on combining frequency curves with generic flood damage functions. Under one climate model, emissions and socioeconomic scenario (HadCM3 and SRES A1b), in 2050 the current 100-year flood would occur at least twice as frequently across 40 % of the globe, approximately 450 million flood-prone people and 430 thousand km of flood-prone cropland would be exposed to a doubling of flood frequency, and global flood risk would increase by approximately 187 % over the risk in 2050 in the absence of climate change. There is strong regional variability (most adverse impacts would be in Asia), and considerable variability between climate models. In 2050, the range in increased exposure across 21 climate models under SRES A1b is 31-450 million people and 59 to 430 thousand km of cropland, and the change in risk varies between −9 and +376 %. The paper presents impacts by region, and also presents relationships between change in global mean surface temperature and impacts on the global flood hazard. There are a number of caveats with the analysis; it is based on one global hydrological model only, the climate scenarios are constructed using pattern-scaling, and the precise impacts are sensitive to some of the assumptions in the definition and application. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The overall global-scale consequences of climate change are dependent on the distribution of impacts across regions, and there are multiple dimensions to these impacts. This paper presents a global assessment of the potential impacts of climate change across several sectors, using a harmonised set of impacts models forced by the same climate and socio-economic scenarios. Indicators of impact cover the water resources, river and coastal flooding, agriculture, natural environment and built environment sectors. Impacts are assessed under four SRES socio-economic and emissions scenarios, and the effects of uncertainty in the projected pattern of climate change are incorporated by constructing climate scenarios from 21 global climate models. There is considerable uncertainty in projected regional impacts across the climate model scenarios, and coherent assessments of impacts across sectors and regions therefore must be based on each model pattern separately; using ensemble means, for example, reduces variability between sectors and indicators. An example narrative assessment is presented in the paper. Under this narrative approximately 1 billion people would be exposed to increased water resources stress, around 450 million people exposed to increased river flooding, and 1.3 million extra people would be flooded in coastal floods each year. Crop productivity would fall in most regions, and residential energy demands would be reduced in most regions because reduced heating demands would offset higher cooling demands. Most of the global impacts on water stress and flooding would be in Asia, but the proportional impacts in the Middle East North Africa region would be larger. By 2050 there are emerging differences in impact between different emissions and socio-economic scenarios even though the changes in temperature and sea level are similar, and these differences are greater in 2080. However, for all the indicators, the range in projected impacts between different climate models is considerably greater than the range between emissions and socio-economic scenarios. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Most scientific assessments for climate change adaptation and risk reduction are based on scenarios for climatic change. Scenarios for socio-economic development, particularly in terms of vulnerability and adaptive capacity, are largely lacking. This paper focuses on the utility of socio-economic scenarios for vulnerability, risk and adaptation research. The paper introduces the goals and functions of scenarios in general and reflects on the current global debate around shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs). It examines the options and constraints of scenario methods for risk and vulnerability assessments in the context of climate change and natural hazards. Two case studies are used to contrast the opportunities and current constraints in scenario methods at different scales: the global WorldRiskIndex, based on quantitative data and indicators; and a local participatory scenario development process in Jakarta, showing a qualitative approach. The juxtaposition of a quantitative approach with global data and a qualitative-participatory local approach provides new insights on how different methods and scenario techniques can be applied in vulnerability and risk research. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There is a growing focus on the economics of adaptation as policy moves from theory to practice. However, the techniques commonly used in economic appraisal have limitations in coping with climate change uncertainty. While decision making under uncertainty has gained prominence, economic appraisal of adaptation still uses approaches such as deterministic cost-benefit analysis. Against this background, this paper provides a critical review and assessment of existing economic decision support tools (cost-benefit analysis and cost-effectiveness analysis) an uncertainty framework (iterative risk management) and alternative tools that more fully incorporate uncertainty (real options analysis, robust decision making and portfolio analysis). The paper summarises each method, provides examples, and assesses their strengths and weaknesses for adaptation. The tools are then compared to identify key differences, and to identify when these approaches might be appropriate for specific applications in adaptation decision making. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper applies an ontological politics approach for studying how complexity, uncertainty, and ignorance are being dealt with in the Netherlands by looking at how knowledges are produced and incorporated in decision-making on uncertain climate change. On the basis of work done in the Netherlands, this paper shows two things in particular. First, how decision making responses historically have been subject to change under the influence of floods and how the emergence of climate change has significantly changed these floods. Second, based on the analysis of processes dealing with a blue-green algae problem in a lake, climate change not only changed decision making responses but also changed the very reality that is being enacted. Consequently, this brings an ethical dimension to the fore, related to the intrinsic tension between the growing awareness that 'all is interconnected' on the one hand and the realization we cannot take all into account. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Winter tourism is the main source of income and the driving force of local development in many mountain areas. However, in recent years, the industry has been identified as being extremely vulnerable to future climate change. Although the Pyrenees has the largest ski area in Europe after the Alps, there are few detailed climate change vulnerability assessments on the ski resorts based in this region. This paper analyzes the vulnerability of the Pyrenean ski resorts to projected changes in the snowpack under various future climate scenarios. In addition, the study analyzes the sustainability of the snowmaking systems to offset the climate variability of natural snow cover. On average, the study predicts a shorter ski-season length, especially in low-altitude ski resorts in a moderate climate change scenario and for all ski resorts in a more intensive climate change scenario. However, a significant regional variability has been identified for the projected impacts at very short geographical distances within the studied area. Moreover, this paper shows that snowmaking cannot completely solve the problem for all ski resorts in the Pyrenees, as the measure can only act as a robust adaptation strategy in the region provided climate change is limited to +2 °C snowmaking. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Using case study analysis across three sectors in China (cement, electric vehicles and coal fired electricity generation) and theoretical insights from the innovation studies literature, this paper analyses the development of China's technological capabilities in low carbon technologies and the ways in which public policies have contributed to developing these capabilities. It finds that China has developed significant capabilities via a strategic approach. The paper's findings have significant implications for international policies designed to support low carbon technology transfer to developing countries and broader processes of low carbon technological change and development. Such policies should go beyond the traditional focus on the transfer of technology hardware to focus on the development of low carbon technological capabilities in developing country firms. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Increasing attention is being given to climate technologies on the international climate change agenda, not least in the agricultural sector and water sectors, and to technologies for adaptation. However investments in technology-based adaptation (seeds, dams, irrigation, etc.) are complicated by the fact that it remains difficult to predict future climate change impacts, especially on a local scale. In addition, evidence for the costs and benefits of implementing adaptation technologies is relatively limited. The analysis presented in this paper shows that there is a large potential for integrating adaptation technologies into the planning and implementation of on-going and future projects. Based on local-level data from a technology needs assessment project in Lebanon, this paper presents two examples of the economic feasibility of implementing adaptation technologies in the agricultural and water sectors. The results show that the technologies can be applied at low cost and with relatively little effort. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In addition to carbon dioxide, it is becoming increasingly clear that there are numerous other potent agents of anthropogenic forcing (e.g. methane, ozone, black carbon) at work in the climate system today. The typical ethical framing of climate change has not yet accommodated this complexity. In addition, geoengineering has often been presented as a Plan B that would simply counter unintentional (and positive) anthropogenic forcing with intentional (and negative) anthropogenic forcing. This paper attempts to better address the complexity by outlining an ethical framework for reducing all anthropogenic forcing, a position it labels the 'climate imperative.' The paper considers geoengineering alongside various other anthropogenic forcing activities and discusses what the climate imperative would say about each of them. On this analysis, GHG and black carbon reductions remain a priority. At the same time, the framing reveals a significant ethical difference between geoengineering through solar radiation management and through carbon dioxide removal. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

'Societal teleconnections' - analogous to physical teleconnections such as El Niño - are human-created linkages that link activities, trends, and disruptions across large distances, such that locations spatially separated from the locus of an event can experience a variety of impacts from it nevertheless. In the climate change context, such societal teleconnections add a layer of risk that is currently neither fully appreciated in most impacts or vulnerability assessments nor in on-the-ground adaptation planning. Conceptually, societal teleconnections arise from the interactions among actors, and the institutions that guide their actions, affecting the movement of various substances through different structures and processes. Empirically, they arise out of societal interactions, including globalization, to create, amplify, and sometimes attenuate climate change vulnerabilities and impacts in regions far from those where a climatic extreme or change occurs. This paper introduces a simple but systematic way to conceptualize societal teleconnections and then highlights and explores eight unique but interrelated types of societal teleconnections with selected examples: (1) trade and economic exchange, (2) insurance and reinsurance, (3) energy systems, (4) food systems; (5) human health, (6) population migration, (7) communication, and (8) strategic alliances and military interactions. The paper encourages further research to better understand the causal chains behind socially teleconnected impacts, and to identify ways to routinely integrate their consideration in impacts/vulnerability assessment and adaptation planning to limit the risk of costly impacts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change impacts are already happening through the world, and it is now clear that there is the need for an adaptive response from global institutions down to the local level. Reducing vulnerability to cope with climate variability might be more challenging in tropical countries than in North America or Europe. The ten papers of this special issue were presented during the Adaptclim conference that was held by the Sinergia Project, the CLARIS LPB project, and the GeoData Institute in Asunción, Paraguay, in 2010. All papers, except one regarding the Brahmaputra Basin in South Asia, present studies from South America. These studies are first contextualized geographically and then are related one to another by a simplified vulnerability concept linking climate stress to sensitivity and adaptive capacity of natural and human systems. One half of the papers focus on actual or future climate change and the present-day causes of the vulnerability of natural and agrosystems. Droughts are and will be the main source of stress for agriculture in South America. Increasing fragmentation of forest of the center of this continent is aggravating their vulnerability to dry spells. Another half of the studies of this special issue deal with the adaptive capacity human populations to system perturbations produced or enhanced by climate change. The studies point out inclusion of traditional knowledge and involvement of local actors in their own vulnerability assessment to increase adaptive capacity. These elements of climate justice, giving voice to those less responsible for carbon emissions but bearing their most severe consequences, allow the particular needs of a community to be considered and can direct adaptation policy toward preserving or rebuilding their specific capabilities under threat from climate change. The special issue also made clear that a basin analysis of the climate change problem could provide information, results, and methods more readily of use for the local population and decision makers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As climate change continues to alter local weather patterns, it is important to understand how people are experiencing such changes because personal experience may affect mitigation and adaptation policy preferences and behaviors. Local weather conditions are also an easily accessible source of information that, aggregated over time, may enable people to detect long-term climate trends and update their beliefs about global warming. However, motivated reasoning—the tendency to fit information to conclusions that correspond with a preexisting belief—may limit the accuracy of local weather perceptions. This paper focuses on perceptions of seasonal weather in Norway and examines evidence for motivated reasoning consistent with pre-existing beliefs about climate change, using a national panel survey combined with high-resolution seasonal climate observations. Respondents’ perceptions are sensitive to observed differences in both temperature and precipitation, but respondents are more likely to accurately perceive local precipitation than local temperature. Controlling for observed conditions, beliefs about global climate change had a large effect on perceptions of seasonal temperature, and smaller effects on perceptions of seasonal precipitation. These findings provide evidence that individual perceptions of seasonal weather are related to local conditions, but they are also likely to be motivated by beliefs about global climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Assessing regional-scale vulnerability of agricultural systems to climate change and variability is vital in securing food and fiber systems, as well as sustaining rural livelihoods. Farmers, ranchers, and forest landowners rely on science-based, decision-relevant, and localized information to maintain production, ecological viability, and economic returns. This paper synthesizes the collection of research on the future of agricultural production in the Southwestern United States. A variety of assessment methods indicate the diverse impacts and risks across the Southwest, often related to water availability, which drives adaptive measures in this region. Sector- or species-specific adaptive measures have long been practiced in this region and will continue to be necessary to support agricultural production as a regional enterprise. Diversification of crop selection and income source imparts climate resilience. Building upon biophysical vulnerability through incorporating social and economic factors is critical to future adaptation planning efforts. The persistence and adaptive capacity of agriculture in the water-limited Southwest serves as an instructive example for producers outside the region expecting drier and warmer conditions and may offer solutions to reduce future climate impacts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Increasing global temperatures are likely to have major impacts on agriculture, but the effects will vary by crop and location. This paper describes the temperature sensitivity and exposure of selected specialty crops in California. We used literature synthesis to create several sensitivity indices (from 1 to 4) to changes in winter minimum and summer maximum temperature for the top 14 specialty crops. To estimate exposure, we used seasonal period change analysis of mid-century minimum and maximum temperature changes downscaled to county level from CMIP5 models. We described crop vulnerability on a county basis as (crop sensitivity index × county climate exposure × area of crop in county); individual crop vulnerabilities were combined to create an aggregate index of specialty crop vulnerability by county. We also conducted analyses scaled by crop value rather than area, and normalized to total specialty crop area in each county. Our analyses yielded a spatial assessment highlighting seasons and counties of highest vulnerability. Winter and summer vulnerability are correlated, but not highly so. High-producing counties (e.g., Fresno County in the San Joaquin Valley) are the most vulnerable in absolute terms, while northern Sacramento Valley counties are the most vulnerable in relative terms, due to their reliance on heat-sensitive perennial crops. Our results illustrate the importance of examining crop vulnerability from different angles. More physiological and economic research is needed to build a comprehensive picture of specialty crop vulnerability to climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The interior southwest United States is one of the hottest, driest regions on the planet, yet irrigated cropland agriculture is successfully practiced where there is access to surface water and/or groundwater. Through climate change, the southwest is projected to become even hotter and drier, increasing the challenges faced by farmers across the region. We can assess the vulnerability of cropland agriculture, to assist in developing potential solutions to these challenges of warming temperatures and water scarcity. However, these types of biophysical vulnerability assessment usually generate technological or policy-level solutions that do not necessarily account for farmers’ ability to respond to climate change impacts. Further, there are non-climatic factors that also threaten the future of agriculture in the region, such as population increase, loss of agricultural land, and increasing competition for depleting water resources. In this paper, we assert that to fully address how southwestern farmers may respond to climate change impacts, we must consider both biophysical outcome and contextual vulnerabilities. Future research on individual localities and/or specific commodities and including cross-disciplinary analysis of socio-economic, institutional, cultural, and political factors alongside biophysical factors will help to develop more substantive understanding of system vulnerabilities and feasible adaptive solutions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change has repercussions on national security. Yet, no widely accepted definition of climate security exists to date. In this paper, we present a mathematical model that defines and assesses climate security as a function of 37 indicators of exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. The model combines the indicators using statistical methods and fuzzy logic which encapsulates the subjective part of the assessment, to derive an overall climate security score from 0 to 1, and then rank 187 countries. A sensitivity analysis points to those indicators with the highest potential to improve climate security and indicates regional priorities for action. It turns out that globally the highest priorities are the economy which is necessary for climate adaptation, population growth which should be contained, political rights, renewable energy use, and sea level rise. Although several results such as the high ranks of Scandinavian countries are intuitive, the model uncovers unexpected facts such as the higher rank of Uruguay than Denmark and Japan or the higher rank of Costa Rica than Italy. However, a closer look at the intermediate results reveals that Uruguay and Costa Rica are far superior to Denmark, Japan, and Italy in the areas of water and energy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A growing body of research shows that extreme climatic events, e.g. heatwave, rainstorms and droughts, are becoming more frequent and intensified across various regions of the world. Australia is not isolated from these changes with marked increase in both rainfall and temperature extremes. Inherently, we understand that exposure to these extreme events could encourage decisions about population flow, and quantifying this linkage is challenging, especially for communities in small areas with an average of 10,000 people. Using spatio-temporal statistical techniques, this paper examines the possible environmental and socio-economic drivers associated with population flows of small communities as well as the possible predictive scenarios due to the effects introduced by climatic extremes. The analysis has been undertaken for a case-study region in the Murray-Darling Basin, Australia, where the economy is underpinned by agriculture and is sensitive to climate variability and extremes. The analysis reveals that in addition to the socio-economic factors, the environmental variables have a statistically significant association on shaping the distribution of the population flows in the study area. This statistical analysis can direct further data collection and causality analysis and be beneficial for policy makers, stakeholders and local communities to work together to adapt the Basin to climate extremes and changes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Wind is one of the most dangerous natural phenomena for the built environment in South Eastern South America. The hazard posed by wind depends on the extreme wind speeds on the surface and can be quantified by calculating the Average Recurrence Interval—more commonly known as return period—of these winds. Maps of return period of extreme wind speeds are used by planning authorities to enforce appropriate standards for infrastructure construction in most countries of the world. These maps are usually built up from wind speeds recorded at a network of weather stations. In some countries, however, the quality of the records is poor or the stations have not been in operation for long enough to give appropriate data for wind hazard studies. In this paper, we discuss an alternative approach based on wind speeds calculated by climate models. The approach provides longer datasets and facilitates assessment of the impact of climate change on wind hazard, a matter of great of importance for planning and emergency authorities. Map quality is evaluated by comparing results from the climate simulations with results from reanalysis. The comparison shows that the climate simulations produce results close enough to the reanalysis and hence they can be used for wind hazard assessment. The results also show that we could expect little variation in wind hazard in South Eastern South America during most of this century. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper provides one of the first empirical studies that examine the impact of climate change adaptation practices on technical efficiency (TE) among smallholder farmers in Nepal. An adaptation index is used to explore the impact of farmers' adaptation on TE using the stochastic frontier analysis framework. Data for six districts of Nepal representing all three agro-ecological regions (terai, hill, and mountain) were collected from a focus group discussion, a stakeholder workshop and a household survey. The survey shows that about 91% of the farming households have adopted at least one practice to minimize the adverse impacts of climate change. Empirical results reveal that adaptation is an important factor explaining efficiency differentials among farming households. Those adopting a greater number of adaptation practices on a larger scale are, on average, found to be 13% more technically efficient than those adopting fewer practices on smaller scale. The empirical results also show that average TE is only 0.72, indicating that there are opportunities for farming households in Nepal to further improve productive efficiency, on average by 28%. Other important factors that explain variations in the productive efficiency across farming households include farmer's education level, irrigation facilities, market access, and social capital such as farmer's participations in relevant agricultural organizations and clubs. This study provides empirical evidence to policy makers that small scale adjustments made by farmers in response to climate change impacts are effective in improving farmers' efficiency in agriculture production. This indicates a need for farmers' involvement in climate change adaptation planning. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There is considerable research interest in future agro-drought risk assessment, since the increasing severity of climate change-related hazards poses a great threat to global food security. Wheat is the most important staple crop in the world, and China's wheat production has long been impacted by drought. The frequency, intensity, and duration of droughts may increase due to climate change and stressing the need for robust assessment methods for drought risk, as well as adaptation and mitigation strategies. This paper investigates a method for assessing future wheat drought risk using climate scenarios and a crop model. We illustrate the utility of such an approach by assessing the risk of wheat drought under climate change scenarios in China using the Environmental Policy Integrated Climate model. Results show that the risk level of wheat drought is highest under scenario RCP8.5, followed by RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP2.6, in descending order. If current climate change trends continue, wheat drought risk in China will be at risk levels between RCP6.0 and RCP8.5 by the end of the twenty-first century. The wheat drought risk assessment shows a "low-risk, high-risk, lowrisk" spatial pattern starting in the spring wheat-planting regions in northern China and progressing to the winter wheat-planting regions in southern China. Significant differences were observed across regions, but in all RCP scenarios, the relative high-risk zones are the Huang-Huai Winter Wheat Region and the North Winter Wheat Region. In addition, wheat drought risk mitigation and adaptation strategies in China are proposed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In world climate science, Bangladesh is considered a poster child of vulnerability. The primary stressors that affect the vulnerability of the Bangladeshi population include sea-level rise, biodiversity degradation, saltwater intrusion, desertification, social exclusion, unstable political conditions, and weak governance systems. Governance is an important non-climatic stressor that has not received sufficient attention. Within this framework, this paper explores the impacts of bribery and extortion on livelihoods and adaptive capacity in the face of climate change and argues that corruption significantly reduces the ability to respond to climatic stressors. Findings draw attention to this critical issue in climate change adaptation and international development in general, particularly for developing countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change is a potential threat to achieving food security, particularly in the most food insecure regions. However, interpreting climate change projections to better understand the potential impacts of a changing climate on food security outcomes is challenging. This paper addresses this challenge through presenting a framework that enables rapid country-level assessment of vulnerability to food insecurity under a range of climate change and adaptation investment scenarios. The results show that vulnerability to food insecurity is projected to increase under all emissions scenarios, and the geographic distribution of vulnerability is similar to that of the present-day; parts of sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia are most severely affected. High levels of adaptation act to off-set these increases; however, only the scenario with the highest level of mitigation combined with high levels of adaptation shows improvements in vulnerability compared to the present-day. The results highlight the dual requirement for mitigation and adaptation to avoid the worst impacts of climate change and to make gains in tackling food insecurity. The approach is an update to the existing Hunger and Climate Vulnerability Index methodology to enable future projections, and the framework presented allows rapid updates to the results as and when new information becomes available, such as updated country-level yield data or climate model output. This approach provides a framework for assessing policy-relevant human food security outcomes for use in long-term climate change and food security planning; the results have been made available on an interactive website for policymakers (www.metoffice.gov.uk/food-insecurity-index). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Cattle ranchers and dairy farmers operating throughout many tropical regions are experiencing major challenges associated with climate change such as higher incidence of heat stress and drought. These effects can result in reduced productivity of rangeland, shortage of nutritional feed, increased heat stress on animals, and high energy costs for cooling. High temperatures and resultant heat stress reduce animal productivity and increase the proliferation and survival of parasites and disease pathogens. Warming reduces the ability of dairy cattle to produce milk and gain weight and can also lower conception rates. This paper reviews research from the Caribbean on heat tolerant traits in bovine and presents evidence that introducing a “slick hair” gene into Holstein cows by crossbreeding with Senepols may increase thermo-tolerance and productivity. As in other parts of the tropics, principal cattle breeds in Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands have been largely introduced from temperate regions. Research indicates these animals may be poorly adapted to rising temperatures, leaving them increasingly vulnerable to chronic heat stress and reduced productivity. Adaptive practices have been developed in breeding and pasture management programs including selection for more heat-resistant genotypes, silvopasturing and crop diversification in forage production, and optimizing facilities and practices to reduce heat stress. Given the nature of climate vulnerability, an integrated approach to adaptation will likely have the greatest success in reducing future risk for producers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The states of Colorado, Montana, Nebraska, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Wyoming comprise the Northern Great Plains region of the USA. The soil and water resources contained in this region have historically supported highly diverse and productive agriculture enterprises that provide a significant proportion of the food, feed, and oilseed for the nation. The region also provides ecological services that influence air, water, and soil quality along with biological diversity. Combined with livestock production and a biofuel industry, crop production forms an integrated system that can offer producers flexibility in management decisions. Projected climatic changes for this region include increasing atmospheric CO2, a longer, warmer growing season, and increased precipitation, likely received in more frequent extreme events. These changes will impact soil and water resources in the region and create opportunities and challenges for land managers. The objectives of this paper are to describe anticipated impacts of projected mid-(2050) and late-(2085) climatic changes on crop production systems in the Northern Great Plains and provide adaptation strategies that should be developed to take advantage of positive and mitigate negative changes. Projected climatic changes will influence agricultural productivity directly as well as indirectly due to changes in weed pressure, insect populations, and diseases. A warmer, longer growing season will change the crops and distribution of those crops grown within the region. An increase in the number of extreme temperature events (high daytime highs or nighttime lows) will decrease crop yields due to increased plant stress during critical pollination and grain fill periods. Adaptation strategies to reduce vulnerability of soil and water resources to projected climatic changes include increasing cropping intensity, reducing tillage intensity, and use of cover crops to provide surface cover to reduce erosion potential and improve nutrient and water use efficiency. Increased use of perennial forages, crop residue, and failed crops in integrated crop-livestock systems will add biological diversity and provide options for converting vegetation biomass into animal protein. Socio-economic changes will need to be incorporated into adaptation strategies planning to insure that sustaining ecosystem services and meeting desired production and conservation goals is accomplished. Education and extension services will be needed to transfer adaptive knowledge in a timely manner to producers in the field. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Almost all climate change studies of plants and animals adopt an 'equilibrium assumption' that analyses of natural distributions provide reliable estimates of species climatic requirements. Yet commercial forestry trials around the world have shown that many tree species can grow successfully under climatic conditions somewhat different from those of their natural distributions. Under climate change it is reasonable to assume that a long-lived tree species, already well-established at particular sites, may be able to display some of the climatic adaptability shown in trials outside its natural distribution. The purpose of this paper is to outline how some species distribution modelling (SDM) and ecological niche modelling (ENM) studies have estimated species climatic requirements beyond those shown by conventional analyses of just their natural distributions, and to show how recent developments are facilitating these analyses. Some of the earliest SDM studies of trees demonstrated the desirability of assessing species climatic requirements using data from outside, as well as within, their natural distributions. In recent years, with the advent of large biodiversity databases and some revised SDM analysis methods, there has been a revival of interest in measuring species climatic requirements using data from beyond their realized niches. It is recommended that at least for tree species, natural distribution data, and where possible results from plantings beyond natural distributions, should be analysed in climate change studies. When this is not possible, some alternative methods of estimating species climatic requirements are identified and some of their advantages and disadvantages are considered. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There is limited knowledge on institutional factors constraining and enabling climate change adaptation in Arctic regions, or the overall readiness of governing bodies and communities to develop, implement, and promote adaptation. This paper examines the preparedness of different levels of government to adapt in the Canadian Arctic territory of Nunavut, drawing upon semi-structured interviews with government personnel and organizations involved in adaptation. In the Government of Nunavut, there have been notable developments around adaptation planning and examples of adaptation champions, but readiness for adaptation is challenged by a number of factors including the existence of pressing socio-economic problems, and institutional and governmental barriers. Federally, there is evidence of high-level leadership on adaptation, the creation of adaptation programs, and allocation of funds for adaptation, although the focus has been mostly on researching adaptation options as opposed to supporting actual actions or policy change. The 2016 Pan-Canadian Framework on Clean Growth and Climate Change, and increasing emphasis on climate change federally and in the Government of Nunavut, offer opportunities for advancing adaptation, but concrete steps are needed to ensure readiness is enhanced. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates the role of intra-regional trade on food availability within the context of global climatic change in the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS). To that end, the study uses a module of trade cost minimization built within a bio-economic optimization model of cropland allocation. The results show that the climate-induced trade pattern in ECOWAS depends on the prevailing socio-economic conditions during the century. No specific pattern of trade flows is predicted but several countries may become dependent on food imports outside of ECOWAS. An adjustment of the common external tariffs (CET) may reduce food import costs. Also, doubling crop yields by 2050 could significantly reduce outside dependence. Finally, actions are urgently needed to be taken to foster agricultural production in ECOWAS. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The impacts of climate change to the dryland areas of East Africa are especially strong, especially if it is considered that these areas have weak institutions and governance systems. Climate change has also affected many rural communities in a severe way, reducing crop yields and sometimes causing crop failure. In Kenya and Tanzania, where drylands cover over around 80 and 50% of their respective land areas, rural populations have been especially affected. Among them is the tribal group of the Maasai, legendary nomad warriors, who have been suffering from persistent droughts and the negative impacts on their cattle herds. This paper describes how climate change affects the Maasai communities in Kenya and the changes seen in their habits and diet, in order to adapt to a changing climate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change can significantly affect water quality, in addition contributing non-stationarity and deep uncertainty that complicates water quality management. But most of the total maximum daily load (TMDL) implementation plans crafted to meet water quality standards in the USA are developed assuming stationary climate and at best a small number of land use futures, although neither assumption seems reliably justified. To address this challenge, this study employs robust decision making (RDM) methods, commonly used to help develop water supply plans, to stress test the proposed Enhanced Watershed Management Plan (EWMP), a TMDL implementation plan, for the Tujunga Wash, the largest subwatershed of the Los Angeles River, over a wide range of climate and land use futures. We find that climate change could significantly reduce the ability of the Tujunga EWMP to meet water quality goals; however, meeting the city's goals for increasing permeable land cover offsets the risk of non-compliance in the face of climate change uncertainties. This study also introduces innovations in RDM analyses, including: treatment of the deeply uncertain incidence of extreme precipitation events, an explicit link between RDM scenario discovery methods and the specification of signposts for adaptive policy pathways, and the use of (imprecise) probabilistic climate projections to inform the choice among robust adaptive policy pathways. The paper also contributes to a larger debate over how to address climate and other uncertainties in regulatory processes involving water quality. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper quantifies the vulnerability of and risk to water resources (VRWR) under a scenario of climate change in the arid and semi-arid region of West China. A new approach integrating hazard, sensitivity, resilience, exposure and risk is developed to assess the VRWR from climate change. Drought is regarded as the key hazard, with its frequency and severity defined using a surface humidity index. Exposure is quantitatively linked with indicators of population and social and economic characteristics using statistical and Geographical Information System (GIS) methodologies. Risk is defined as the product of hazard, exposure and vulnerability, while vulnerability is treated as a function of sensitivity and adaptation. Vulnerability and risk in the water resources system in the coming 20 years are assessed for the RCP 4.5 scenario. The results reveal that both hazard and exposure of water resources display strong spatial variation in the study area. High hazard and exposure are found in the northern Tianshan Mountain as well as the eastern part of Hexi Corridor. Water resources are particularly sensitive to variation in precipitation and potential evapotranspiration in the upstream areas of Hexi Corridor, rivers in Central Asia, headwater streams of Tarim River and most of Chang Tang Plateau. Our assessment shows that there is high vulnerability of and risk to water resources in the study area, especially in the areas of Hexi Corridor, northern Tianshan Mountain and Tarim River. Under the RCP 4.5 climate change scenario, the vulnerability and risk decline over the entire area but remain at a serious level in inland rivers in Hexi Corridor, northern Tianshan Mountain and headwater streams of Tarim River. Thus, these areas are the highest priority for strengthening policy measures to adapt to climate change and reduce exposure and vulnerability and their risk to water resources. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

On 21-22 July 2012, torrential rains hit North China, with the daily precipitation record at Beijing station reaching 160.6 mm; this event is named the Beijing 7-21 case. This paper assesses the likelihood of the occurrence of local torrential rains, such as the Beijing 7-21 case, from the perspective of climate variability. In particular, the influence of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) is assessed. There were five extreme events, with daily precipitation records equal to or larger than 160.6 mm, at Beijing station during the period 1951-2012; all of these events happened during negative phases of the PDO. The present analysis indicates that precipitation events more extreme than the Beijing 7-21 case should happen more than once per decade during negative phases of the PDO, but only about once every four decades during positive PDO phases. The negative phase of the PDO is found to be associated with a much greater probability of daily records of southerly winds in North China during summer. Strong southerly summer monsoons are deemed favorable for increasing the occurrence of local extreme rainfall over North China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Using the Regional Climate Model version 4.3 (RegCM4.3), this paper investigates the potential effects of reforestation on the regional climate over the Loess Plateau in China with a focus on land-atmosphere interactions. Two land surface schemes are used here: the default Biosphere Atmosphere Transfer Scheme (BATS) and the Community Land Model version 3.5 (CLM3.5). Five simulations using a series of hypothetical reforestation scenarios from 1990 to 2009 have been performed. Results show that in the default BATS simulations, the surface air temperature increases significantly during both summer (June-July-August) and winter (December-January-February) seasons. These patterns are particularly evident over the south-eastern plateau where extensive areas of irrigated crop are converted to forest. In experiments with CLM3.5 and BATS with non-irrigation, in which irrigated crops are specified as regular crops, reforestation generally produces a more pronounced cooling effect in summer, and a slight cooling winter in CLM3.5 but a slight warming in BATS with non-irrigation. The land surface energy balance equation involving latent heat flux (LHF), absorbed solar radiation and downward atmospheric longwave radiation is used to explain the reforestation-induced seasonal responses. In the default BATS simulations, increased temperature induced by reforestation is predominantly driven by the reduced year round LHF. In contrast, the reforestation-induced summer cooling in CLM3.5 and BATS with non-irrigation is caused by the enhanced LHF. This study suggests that the default parameterization of irrigated crop in BATS overestimates soil water content and leading to excessive evapotranspiration (ET) in the Loess Plateau. Hence, non-irrigated cropland would be a more plausible land cover representation for the Loess Plateau, as demonstrated from the reforestation simulations using CLM3.5 and BATS with non-irrigation. An improved description of land characteristics in climate models is highly needed for a more reliable prediction of climate responses to land surface change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Forests can mitigate greenhouse gases by storing carbon (SEQU) and supplying woody biomass for burning in power plants with CCS (WBCCS). The paper uses GTM to understand the global dynamics of forests and WITCH to determine the most cost-effective mitigation methods to limit long-term radiative forcing. The analysis finds that both SEQU and WBCCS are effective but the most effective choice is to use them together. WBCCS + SEQU accounts for 23-28% of all mitigation. SEQU initially dominates while carbon prices are low while WBCCS becomes more important later with especially high carbon prices. Forest mitigation encourages land use to shift towards forests, increasing natural forests and especially managed forests. SEQU leads to larger trees and more natural forestland and WBCCS leads to faster growing trees and more managed stands. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Inadequate policy surveillance has undermined the effectiveness of multilateral climate agreements. To illustrate an alternative approach to transparency, I evaluate policy surveillance under the 2009 G-20 fossil fuel subsidies agreement. The Leaders of the Group of 20 nations tasked their energy and finance ministers to identify and phase-out fossil fuel subsidies. The G-20 leaders agreed to submit their subsidy reform strategies to peer review and to independent expert review conducted by international organizations. This process of developed and developing countries pledging to pursue the same policy objective, designing and publicizing implementation plans, and subjecting plans and performance to review by international organizations differs considerably from the historic approach under the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change. This paper draws lessons from the fossil fuel subsidies agreement for climate policy surveillance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper proposes the creation of a club of carbon markets (CCM), to promote deep reductions in greenhouse gas emissions by supporting the development, harmonization, and increased ambition of domestic carbon markets. To achieve its aims, the club would establish common or reciprocal standards for environmental market infrastructure, transparency and environmental integrity; offer mutual recognition of members' emissions units; allow participating jurisdictions to share experience and gain assistance in building institutional capacity; and promote domestic and cross-border investment in low-carbon development. Using a suite of incentives, including some from the trade arena, a club of carbon markets could serve as a powerful attractive nucleus for broadening the participation of jurisdictions in climate mitigation, much as the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) served as the nucleus for broadening trade in products and services. A carbon markets club could be launched under UNFCCC auspices, but a more promising avenue might be to pursue the creation of the CCM as a complement to but outside the UN talks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Case study and model results lend some optimism for the potential of small coalitions with partially excludable public goods to substantially deepen international cooperation on energy and climate issues. Drawing motivation from other issue areas in international relations ranging from nuclear non-proliferation, transboundary air pollution and liberalized trade, we use an evolutionary-game-theoretic model to analyze regimes that yield domestic incentives to contribute to public goods provision (co-benefits). Co-benefits may be limited, but can create a nucleus for formation of coalitions that grow while deepening provision of global public goods. The Climate and Clean Air Coalition (CCAC) is a prime example of an agreement that employs partially excludable club benefits to deepen cooperation on non-CO greenhouse gases. Our game-theoretic results support two important insights for the building blocks approach to addressing climate change: sustained cooperation in club agreements is possible even when public goods are not entirely excludable and some members of the population free-ride; and second, cooperation in small club configurations yields larger non-excludable public goods benefits than cooperation in more inclusive forums. This paper lends positive support that a proliferation of small agreements under a building blocks approach at the UNFCCC may be more effective (not just more likely) for deepening climate change cooperation than a fully inclusive approach. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we make two points about bottom-up approaches to climate policy. First, we argue that it is more productive to work with a small group of countries to establish the basis of a global climate regime than tackling the issue with all countries, as in the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). Secondly, we argue that negotiators should also work explicitly to encourage the development and deployment of clean technologies as a way to reduce future emissions, and suggest how this might be achieved. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A mathematical model is developed in this study with the goal of maximizing agricultural benefits in the Aidoghmush river basin, Iran. The results show that the cultivated area of various crops and their agricultural benefits would be increased over the planning horizon with proper management and modification of cropping patterns despite the decline in streamflow and increasing water demand under climate-change conditions. Therefore, considering the optimal cropping pattern increases agricultural benefits by 14 and 17% under baseline climatic and climate-change conditions, respectively, compared to present conditions. This paper's results indicate that areas cultivated with various crops would increase under climate-change conditions compared to baseline climatic conditions, except for alfalfa. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Malaria is a climate sensitive disease that is causing rampant deaths in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) and its impact is expected to worsen under climate change. Thus, pre-emptive policies for future malaria control require projections based on integrated models that can accommodate complex interactions of both climatic and non-climatic factors that define malaria landscape. In this paper, we combined Geographical Information System (GIS) and Bayesian belief networks (BBN) to generate GIS-BBN models that predicted malaria hotspots in 2030, 2050 and 2100 under representative concentration pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5. We used malaria data of children of SSA, gridded environmental and social-economic data together with projected climate data from the 21 Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5 models to compile the GIS-BBN models. Our model on which projections were made has an accuracy of 80.65% to predict the high, medium, low and no malaria prevalence categories correctly. The non-spatial BBN model projection shows a moderate variation in malaria reduction for the high prevalence category among RCPs. Under the low prevalence category, an increase in malaria is seen but with little variation ranging between 4.6 and 5.6 percentage points. Spatially, under RCP 4.5, most parts of SSA will have medium malaria prevalence in 2030, while under RCP 8.5, most parts will have no malaria except in the highlands. Our BBN-GIS models show an overall shift of malaria hotspots from West Africa to the eastern and southern parts of Africa especially under RCP 8.5. RCP 8.5 will not expand the high and medium malaria prevalence categories in all the projection years. The generated probabilistic maps highlight future malaria hotspots under climate change on which pre-emptive policies can be based. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Power distribution pole networks are vulnerable to a changing climate. Climate change can increase wind speeds, and changes in rainfall and temperature can accelerate timber decay, affecting residual capacity of timber power poles. The present paper utilises advanced stochastic simulation methods to examine climate change impacts, and possible climate change adaptation strategies, for Australian power distribution networks. The assessment framework developed, which is applicable to a wide variety of infrastructure types and research areas, utilises probabilistic methods to investigate the appropriateness of climate adaptation strategies aimed at ameliorating the impact of climate change on critical infrastructure. Measures investigated include alterations to design or maintenance practices through, for example, installation of larger poles, more frequent inspections, or changes to pole replacement criteria. A cost-benefit decision analysis is developed herein using the latest AR5 climate projections, network vulnerability, adaptation measures, and cost and loss data for both direct and indirect costs. The net present value and benefit-to-cost ratio is calculated for different adaptation strategies over the life cycle of the assets up to the year 2090. An adaptation measure that allows for the installation of larger poles but less stringent pole replacement criteria has the highest net benefit-with a mean potential saving of hundreds of millions of dollars. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Social vulnerability to climate change is increasingly being acknowledged, and proposals to measure and manage it are emerging. Building upon this work, this paper proposes an approach to social vulnerability assessment using new empirical definitions of Social Vulnerability Index (SVI) components and new mechanism to aggregate and account for causal relationships among these components. To develop this index, the authors propose a combination of qualitative and quantitative methods, which are all based on local environmental professionals and community members. A means to develop an appropriate primary dataset, through application of a specifically designed household survey questionnaire, is underpinned by the results of a Delphi survey, an in-depth interview and focus group discussions. The data collection and analysis, including calibration and calculation of the SVI, is demonstrated through application in a case study city in central coastal Vietnam. The calculation of SVI at the fine-grained local scale provides high resolution in vulnerability assessment and also obviates the need for secondary data, which may be unavailable or problematic, particularly at the local scale in developing countries. The research reveals inherent limitations of existing SVIs but also indicates the potential for their use in assessing social vulnerability and making decisions associated with responding to climate change at the local scale. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Total factor productivity (TFP) analysis has been the focus of a large number of methodological and empirical studies over the past several decades. One remarkable gap in this literature is the omission of climatic variables as regressors in the models used to derive TFP measures. The purpose of this paper is to narrow this gap by developing climate-adjusted (CA) TFP measures. We combine information from the Climatic Research Unit with Food and Agriculture Organization data for 28 Latin American and Caribbean countries over a 52-year period (1961-2012) to estimate random parameter stochastic production frontier (SPF) models. The goal is to investigate the impact of climatic variability on TFP. The estimated coefficients from the SPF models are used to construct a climatic effects index across countries and over time. The average annual variation in climatic conditions is stronger at the end of the 2000s compared to earlier periods. Climatic variability has a negative effect on production in 20 of the 28 LAC countries analyzed, and this is more severe over Central America and the Caribbean. The average reduction in output across the region attributable to climatic variables is between 0.02 and 22.7% over the last decade compared to the period 1961-1999. The estimated average annual growth rate of CATFP (0.69%) is consistently lower than TFP (1.08%), confirming the adverse impact of climatic variability on agricultural output and productivity in LAC. The results show considerable variability across countries, and this points to the importance of accounting for climatic effects in analyzing TFP. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Future development and renewal of transport infrastructures have to take into account how the effects of climate change will affect these complex sociotechnical systems. This article aims at understanding how to raise this issue to ensure an efficient and systemic uptake of climate change by infrastructure managers. It reports the results of an in-depth case study conducted on the French railway company. This study identifies several adaptation dynamics: one is top-down and stems from climate change impacts; others are more bottom-up and focused on vulnerabilities. However, both types of approaches have, so far, yielded limited results. Building on the existing literature, this paper reveals critical bottlenecks to overcome in order to get the organization ready to adapt. It suggests key components of an enabling framework for a more proactive preparation to climate change and mainstreaming climate adaptation into major organisational decisions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Given its high dependence on rainfed agriculture and its comparatively low adaptive capacity, Africa is frequently invoked as especially vulnerable to climate change. Within Africa, there is likely to be considerable variation in vulnerability to climate change both between and within countries. This paper seeks to advance the agenda of identifying the hot spots of what we term 'climate security' vulnerability, areas where the confluence of vulnerabilities could put large numbers of people at risk of death from climate-related hazards. This article blends the expertise of social scientists and climate scientists. It builds on a model of composite vulnerability that incorporates four 'baskets' or processes that are thought to contribute to vulnerability including: (1) physical exposure, (2) population density, (3) household and community resilience, and (4) governance and political violence. Whereas previous iterations of the model relied on historical physical exposure data of natural hazards, this paper uses results from regional model simulations of African climate in the late 20th century and mid-21st century to develop measures of extreme weather events-dry days, heat wave events, and heavy rainfall days-coupled with an indicator of low-lying coastal elevation. For the late 20th century, this mapping process reveals the most vulnerable areas are concentrated in Chad, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Niger, Somalia, Sudan, and South Sudan, with pockets in Burkina Faso, Ethiopia, Guinea, Mauritania, and Sierra Leone. The mid 21st century projection shows more extensive vulnerability throughout the Sahel, including Burkina Faso, Chad, Mali, northern Nigeria, Niger, and across Sudan. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]