Search

The widespread demand for animal-sourced foods poses challenges in addressing climate change due to their significant greenhouse gas emissions. Alternative proteins like cultured meat show promise with lower greenhouse gas emissions, but have faced public resistance, posing substantial barriers to their broad development and adoption. This paper reports a survey that examined the perceived naturalness of protein sources as an important factor that predicts perceived risks, benefits, and support for consumption. A diverse sample from the United States considered six different protein technologies, including three newer alternative proteins such as cultured meat and three more conventional proteins. Newer alternative proteins were perceived as less natural and were less supported than conventional proteins. Additionally, the more participants perceived protein sources as natural, the less risky and more beneficial they perceived them to be, contributing to their support. These results suggest that perceived naturalness, and associated risks and benefits, could be an important factor in shaping public support for or opposition to new proteins. These findings have theoretical and broader implications for the development and adoption of sustainability technologies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There is now no doubt that current global production-consumption-disposal systems are threatening the fundamental conditions of existence on this planet. In response, the pressing need for total system transformation has gained civic and political traction, feeding into long-standing debates and interventions that are aimed at recalibrating prevailing economic and social practices. One such debate and intervention is that of the circular economy (CE). Here, advocates argue that current linear resource and energy use systems must be reconfigured into loops of re-use, repair, refurbishment, and recycling, displacing primary production and lessening greenhouse gas emissions in the process. This agenda has potentially profound implications for aspects of daily social practices. Yet, to date, little attention has been paid (politically and in research) to how the CE does and will interact with everyday habits, norms, and meanings. In response, this paper explores some of the conceptual assumptions underlying the CE 'consumer'. It argues that mainstream CE debates are underscored by an impoverished view of our relationships with complex material cultures, which in turn is creating barriers to transformation. Drawing on empirical research into responses to the CE in the UK and the Netherlands, this paper contrasts the challenges of inciting consumers to take up new, resource-efficient business models in contexts of hyper-consumerism, with a more hopeful 'small story' of overt, small-scale circular spaces, that nevertheless embed the CE and its underlying impetuses more clearly into the everyday. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Greenhouse gas removal (GGR) techniques appear to offer hopes of balancing limited global carbon budgets by removing substantial amounts of greenhouse gases from the atmosphere later this century. This hope rests on an assumption that GGR will largely supplement emissions reduction. The paper reviews the expectations of GGR implied by integrated assessment modelling, categorizes ways in which delivery or promises of GGR might instead deter or delay emissions reduction, and offers a preliminary estimate of the possible extent of three such forms of 'mitigation deterrence'. Type 1 is described as 'substitution and failure': an estimated 50–229 Gt-C (or 70% of expected GGR) may substitute for emissions otherwise reduced, yet may not be delivered (as a result of political, economic or technical shortcomings, or subsequent leakage or diversion of captured carbon into short-term utilization). Type 2, described as 'rebounds', encompasses rebounds, multipliers, and side-effects, such as those arising from land-use change, or use of captured CO2 in enhanced oil recovery. A partial estimate suggests that this could add 25–134 Gt-C to unabated emissions. Type 3, described as 'imagined offsets', is estimated to affect 17–27% of the emissions reductions required, reducing abatement by a further 182–297 Gt-C. The combined effect of these unanticipated net additions of CO2 to the atmosphere is equivalent to an additional temperature rise of up to 1.4 °C. The paper concludes that such a risk merits further deeper analysis and serious consideration of measures which might limit the occurrence and extent of mitigation deterrence. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, a systematic literature review was conducted to synthesize understanding on farmers' perception on climate change. Farmers' perception of climate change is conceptualized as comprising of three dimensions—first, as farmers' "awareness"; second, "conceptual understanding"; and third, the "experience" of climate change. The review included 162 papers published during the period January 2000 to July 2019. The highest number of studies was conducted in Africa, followed by Asia. A large majority of farmers report being aware of climate change. However, only a few studies elicit the difference between climate variability and climate change from farmers. A negligible number of studies attempt to identify the role of agricultural activities in greenhouse gas emissions and climate change. Furthermore, authors compare farmers' perception with meteorological evidence, which is more aligned in terms of change in "temperature" rather than "precipitation." The insights from the review provide guidance on conceptualization and operationalization of the variable "farmers' perception of climate change" for future studies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper provides an assessment of Article 4.1 of the Paris Agreement on climate; the main goal of which is to provide guidance on how “to achieve the long-term temperature goal set out in Article 2”. Paraphrasing, Article 4.1 says that, to achieve this end, we should decrease greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions so that net anthropogenic GHG emissions fall to zero in the second half of this century. To aggregate net GHG emissions, 100-year global warming potentials (GWP-100) are commonly used to convert non-CO2 emissions to equivalent CO2 emissions. The GWP-scaling method is tested using methane as an example. The temperature projections using GWP-100 scaling are shown to be seriously in error. This throws doubt on the use of GWP-100 scaling to estimate net GHG emissions. An alternative method to determine the net-zero point for GHG emissions based on radiative forcing is derived, where the net-zero point is identified with the maximum of GHG forcing. This shows that, to meet the Article 2 warming goal, the net-zero point for GHG emissions needs to be reached as early as 2036, much sooner than in the Article 4.1 window. Other scientific problems in Article 4.1 that further undermine its purpose to guide efforts to achieve the Article 2 temperature targets are discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper explores the consequences of different policy assumptions and the derivation of globally consistent, national low-carbon development pathways for the seven largest greenhouse gas (GHG)–emitting countries (EU28 as a bloc) in the world, covering approximately 70% of global CO2 emissions, in line with their contributions to limiting global average temperature increase to well below 2 °C as compared with pre-industrial levels. We introduce the methodology for developing these pathways by initially discussing the process by which global integrated assessment model (IAM) teams interacted and derived boundary conditions in the form of carbon budgets for the different countries. Carbon budgets so derived for the 2011–2050 period were then used in eleven different national energy-economy models and IAMs for producing low-carbon pathways for the seven countries in line with a well below 2 °C world up to 2050. We present a comparative assessment of the resulting pathways and of the challenges and opportunities associated with them. Our results indicate quite different mitigation pathways for the different countries, shown by the way emission reductions are split between different sectors of their economies and technological alternatives. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The bottom-up approach of the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) in the Paris Agreement has led countries to self-determine their greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reduction targets. The planned 'ratcheting-up' process, which aims to ensure that the NDCs comply with the overall goal of limiting global average temperature increase to well below 2 °C or even 1.5 °C, will most likely include some evaluation of 'fairness' of these reduction targets. In the literature, fairness has been discussed around equity principles, for which many different effort-sharing approaches have been proposed. In this research, we analysed how country-level emission targets and carbon budgets can be derived based on such criteria. We apply novel methods directly based on the global carbon budget, and, for comparison, more commonly used methods using GHG mitigation pathways. For both, we studied the following approaches: equal cumulative per capita emissions, contraction and convergence, grandfathering, greenhouse development rights and ability to pay. As the results critically depend on parameter settings, we used the wide authorship from a range of countries included in this paper to determine default settings and sensitivity analyses. Results show that effort-sharing approaches that (i) calculate required reduction targets in carbon budgets (relative to baseline budgets) and/or (ii) take into account historical emissions when determining carbon budgets can lead to (large) negative remaining carbon budgets for developed countries. This is the case for the equal cumulative per capita approach and especially the greenhouse development rights approach. Furthermore, for developed countries, all effort-sharing approaches except grandfathering lead to more stringent budgets than cost-optimal budgets, indicating that cost-optimal approaches do not lead to outcomes that can be regarded as fair according to most effort-sharing approaches. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We provide an overall assessment of the surface air temperature and precipitation present day (1976-2005) and future (2070-2099) ensemble climatologies in the Phase I CREMA experiment. This consists of simulations performed with different configurations (physics schemes) of the ICTP regional model RegCM4 over five CORDEX domains (Africa, Mediterranean, Central America, South America, South Asia), driven by different combinations of three global climate models (GCMs) and two greenhouse gas (GHG) representative concentration pathways (RCP8.5 and RCP4.5). The biases (1976-2005) in the driving and nested model ensembles compared to observations show a high degree of spatial variability and, when comparing GCMs and RegCM4, similar magnitudes and more similarity for precipitation than for temperature. The large scale patterns of change (2070-2099 minus 1976-2005) are broadly consistent across the GCM and RegCM4 ensembles and with previous analyses of GCM projections, indicating that the GCMs selected in the CREMA experiment are representative of the more general behavior of current GCMs. The RegCM4, however, shows a lower climate sensitivity (reduced warming) than the driving GCMs, especially when using the CLM land surface scheme. While the broad patterns of precipitation change are consistent across the GCM and RegCM4 ensembles, greater differences are found at sub-regional scales over the various domains, evidently tied to the representation of local processes. This paper serves to provide a reference view of the behavior of the CREMA ensemble, while more detailed and process-based analysis of individual domains is left to companion papers of this special issue. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A direct comparison among highly uncertain inventories of emissions is inadequate and may lead to paradoxes. This issue is of particular importance in the case of greenhouse gases. This paper reviews the methods for the comparison of uncertain inventories in the context of compliance checking. The problem is treated as a comparison of uncertain alternatives. It provides a categorization and ranking of the inventories which can induce compliance checking conditions. Two groups of techniques to compare uncertain estimates are considered in the paper: probabilistic and fuzzy approaches. They show certain similarities which are revealed and stressed throughout the paper. The group of methods most suitable for the compliance purpose is distinguished. They introduce new conditions for fulfilling compliance, depending on inventory uncertainty. These new conditions considerably change the present approach, where only the reported values of inventories are accounted for. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

How do we understand national climate change politics in the United States? Using a methodological innovation in network analysis, this paper analyzes discussions about the issue within the US Congress. Through this analysis, the ideological relationships among speakers providing Congressional testimony on the issue of climate change are mapped. For the first time, issue stances of actors are systematically aggregated in order to measure coalitions and consensus among political actors in American climate politics in a relational way. Our findings show how consensus formed around the economic implications of regulating greenhouse gases and the policy instrument that should do the regulating. The paper is separated into three sections. First, we review the ways scholars have looked at climate change policymaking in the United States, paying particular attention to those who have looked at the issue within the US Congress. Next, we present analysis of statements made during Congressional hearings on climate change over a four-year period. Our analysis demonstrates how a polarized ideological actor space in the 109 Congress transforms into a more consensual actor landscape in the 110 Congress, which is significantly less guided by partisan differences. This paper concludes by discussing how these findings help us understand shifting positions within American climate politics and the implications of these findings. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Paris pledges are unique documents in climate governance that outline what each country intends to do to combat climate change. Often, these documents contain headline greenhouse gas percentage reduction targets that appear to summarize countries' contributions to mitigation. This is a boon for comparative climate policy research. However, I show in this paper that the Paris pledges require detailed interpretation to be comparable. I demonstrate the risks in comparing these targets by re-visiting a recent studying linking national public opinion to the stringency of countries' mitigation goals. I develop new indicators that better account for the structure of the targets and show in replications that the original finding is inconsistent with the underlying data. I conclude by drawing lessons for studying the Paris pledges. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Since 2006 the scientific community in California, in cooperation with resource managers, has been conducting periodic statewide studies about the potential impacts of climate change on natural and managed systems. This Special Issue is a compilation of revised papers that originate from the most recent assessment that concluded in 2009. As with the 2006 studies that influenced the passage of California's landmark Global Warming Solutions Act (AB32), these papers have informed policy formulation at the state level, helping bring climate adaptation as a complementary measure to mitigation. We provide here a brief introduction to the papers included in this Special Issue focusing on how they are coordinated and support each other. We describe the common set of downscaled climate and sea-level rise scenarios used in this assessment that came from six different global climate models (GCMs) run under two greenhouse gas emissions scenarios: B1 (low emissions) and A2 (a medium-high emissions). Recommendations for future state assessments, some of which are being implemented in an on-going new assessment that will be completed in 2012, are offered. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper summarizes the main characteristics of the RCP8.5 scenario. The RCP8.5 combines assumptions about high population and relatively slow income growth with modest rates of technological change and energy intensity improvements, leading in the long term to high energy demand and GHG emissions in absence of climate change policies. Compared to the total set of Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), RCP8.5 thus corresponds to the pathway with the highest greenhouse gas emissions. Using the IIASA Integrated Assessment Framework and the MESSAGE model for the development of the RCP8.5, we focus in this paper on two important extensions compared to earlier scenarios: 1) the development of spatially explicit air pollution projections, and 2) enhancements in the land-use and land-cover change projections. In addition, we explore scenario variants that use RCP8.5 as a baseline, and assume different degrees of greenhouse gas mitigation policies to reduce radiative forcing. Based on our modeling framework, we find it technically possible to limit forcing from RCP8.5 to lower levels comparable to the other RCPs (2.6 to 6 W/m). Our scenario analysis further indicates that climate policy-induced changes of global energy supply and demand may lead to significant co-benefits for other policy priorities, such as local air pollution. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Greenhouse gases emission inventories are computed with rather low precision. Moreover, their uncertainty distributions may be asymmetric. This should be accounted for in the compliance and trading rules. In this paper we model the uncertainty of inventories as intervals or using fuzzy numbers. The latter allows us to better shape the uncertainty distributions. The compliance and emission trading rules obtained generalize the results for the symmetric uncertainty distributions that were considered in the earlier papers by the present authors (Nahorski et al., Water Air & Soil Pollution. Focus 7(4-5):539-558, ; Nahorski and Horabik, , J Energy Eng 134(2):47-52, ). However, unlike in the symmetric distribution, in the asymmetric fuzzy case it is necessary to apply approximations because of nonlinearities in the formulas. The final conclusion is that the interval uncertainty rules can be applied, but with a much higher substitutional noncompliance risk, which is a parameter of the rules. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The assessment of greenhouse gases emitted to and removed from the atmosphere is high on the international political and scientific agendas. Growing international concern and cooperation regarding the climate change problem have increased the need for policy-oriented solutions to the issue of uncertainty in, and related to, inventories of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The approaches to addressing uncertainty discussed in this Special Issue reflect attempts to improve national inventories, not only for their own sake but also from a wider, systems analytical perspective-a perspective that seeks to strengthen the usefulness of national inventories under a compliance and/or global monitoring and reporting framework. These approaches demonstrate the benefits of including inventory uncertainty in policy analyses. The authors of the contributed papers show that considering uncertainty helps avoid situations that can, for example, create a false sense of certainty or lead to invalid views of subsystems. This may eventually prevent related errors from showing up in analyses. However, considering uncertainty does not come for free. Proper treatment of uncertainty is costly and demanding because it forces us to make the step from 'simple to complex' and only then to discuss potential simplifications. Finally, comprehensive treatment of uncertainty does not offer policymakers quick and easy solutions. The authors of the papers in this Special Issue do, however, agree that uncertainty analysis must be a key component of national GHG inventory analysis. Uncertainty analysis helps to provide a greater understanding and better science helps us to reduce and deal with uncertainty. By recognizing the importance of identifying and quantifying uncertainties, great strides can be made in ongoing discussions regarding GHG inventories and accounting for climate change. The 17 papers in this Special Issue deal with many aspects of analyzing and dealing with uncertainty in emissions estimates. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The IPCC Fourth Assessment Report, Working Group III, summarises in Box 13.7 the required emission reduction ranges in Annex I and non-Annex I countries as a group, to achieve greenhouse gas concentration stabilisation levels between 450 and 650 ppm CO2-eq. The box summarises the results of the IPCC authors’ analysis of the literature on the regional allocation of the emission reductions. The box states that Annex I countries as a group would need to reduce their emissions to below 1990 levels in 2020 by 25% to 40% for 450 ppm, 10% to 30% for 550 ppm and 0% to 25% for 650 ppm CO2-eq, even if emissions in developing countries deviate substantially from baseline for the low concentration target. In this paper, the IPCC authors of Box 13.7 provide background information and analyse whether new information, obtained after completion of the IPCC report, influences these ranges. The authors concluded that there is no argument for updating the ranges in Box 13.7. The allocation studies, which were published after the writing of the IPCC report, show reductions in line with the reduction ranges in the box. From the studies analysed, this paper specifies the “substantial deviation” or “deviation from baseline” in the box: emissions of non-Annex I countries as a group have to be below the baseline roughly between 15% to 30% for 450 ppm CO2-eq, 0% to 20% for 550 ppm CO2-eq and from 10% above to 10% below the baseline for 650 ppm CO2-eq, in 2020. These ranges apply to the whole group of non-Annex I countries and may differ substantially per country. The most important factor influencing these ranges above, for non-Annex I countries, and in the box, for Annex I countries, is new information on higher baseline emissions (e.g. that of Sheehan, Climatic Change, , this issue). Other factors are the assumed global emission level in 2020 and assumptions on land-use change and forestry emissions. The current, slow pace in climate policy and the steady increase in global emissions, make it almost unfeasible to reach relatively low global emission levels in 2020 needed to meet 450 ppm CO2-eq, as was first assumed feasible by some studies, 5 years ago. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Over the last few years, California has passed some of the strongest climate policies in the USA. These new policies have been motivated in part by increasing concerns over the risk of climate-related impacts and facilitated by the state's existing framework of energy and air quality policies. This paper presents an overview of the evolution of this increased awareness of climate change issues by policy makers brought about by the strong link between climate science and policy in the state. The State Legislature initiated this link in 1988 with the mandate to prepare an assessment of the potential consequences of climate change to California. Further interactions between science and policy has more recently resulted, in summer of 2006, in the passage of Assembly Bill 32, a law that limits future greenhouse gas emissions in California. This paper discusses the important role played by a series of state and regional climate assessments beginning in 1988 and, in particular, the lessons learned from a recently completed study known as the Scenarios Project. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The issue of climate change required the development of the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) by the IPCC. The complexity of the subject and the unique science-policy relation resulted in confusion and discussions appeared in popular media like The Economist. This paper reviews scenario literature and SRES, identifies the most vulnerable elements in the communication of SRES. In the communication of GHG emission scenarios through SRES, the weaknesses that have been identified by the authors of this paper are the normative character of climate change assessment, the plausibility of the scenarios, and the risk of simplification of complex messages. The causes of these communicative issues have been identified as the intrinsic difficulties of interdisciplinary science, the uniqueness of the science-policy relation, and the need for a high degree of transparency. This paper suggests improving future communication of complex messages from scientists to their audience by means of clear reasoning when communicating with non-scientists, explicitly normative emission scenarios, and increased stakeholder participation in scenario development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper provides an economic perspective of adaptation to climate change. The paper specifically examines the role of markets and government in efficient adaptation responses. For adaptations to be efficient, the benefits from following adaptations must exceed the costs. For private market goods, market actors will follow this principle in their own interest. For public goods, governments must take on this responsibility. Governments must also be careful to design institutions that encourage efficiency or they could inadvertently increase the damages from climate change. Finally, although in a few cases actors must anticipate climate changes far into the future, generally it is best to learn and then act with respect to adaptation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract During the negotiations on the Kyoto Protocol, Brazil proposed allocating the greenhouse gas emission reductions of Annex I Parties according to the relative effect of a country’s historical emissions on global temperature increase. This paper analyses the impact of scientific uncertainties and of different options in policy implementation (policy choices) on the contribution of countries’ historical emissions to indicators of historical responsibility for climate change. The influence of policy choices was found to be at least as large as the impact of the scientific uncertainties analysed here. Building on this, the paper then proceeds to explore the implications of applying the Brazilian Proposal as a climate regime for differentiation of future commitments on the global scale combined with an income threshold for participation of the non-Annex I regions. Under stringent climate targets, such a regime leads to high emission reductions for Annex I regions by 2050, in particular for Europe and Japan. The income threshold assumptions strongly affect the Annex I reductions, even more than the impact of another burden-sharing key. A variant of the Brazilian Proposal, allocating emission reductions on the basis of cumulative emissions since 1990, would lead to a more balanced distribution of emission reductions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract As carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases accumulate in the atmosphere and contribute to rising global temperatures, it is important to examine how derivative changes in climate may affect natural and managed ecosystems. In this series of papers, we study the impacts of climate change on agriculture, water resources and natural ecosystems in the conterminous United States using twelve scenarios derived from General Circulation Model (GCM) projections to drive biophysical impact models. These scenarios are described in this paper. The scenarios are first put into the context of recent work on climate-change by the IPCC for the 21st century and span two levels of global-mean temperature change and three sets of spatial patterns of change derived from GCM results. In addition, the effect of either the presence or absence of a CO2 fertilization effect on vegetation is examined by using two levels of atmospheric CO2 concentration as a proxy variable. Results from three GCM experiments were used to produce different regional patterns of climate change. The three regional patterns for the conterminous United States range from: an increase in temperature above the global-mean level along with a significant decline in precipitation; temperature increases in line with the global-mean with an average increase in precipitation; and, with a sulfate aerosol effect added to in the same model, temperature increases that are lower than the global-mean. The resulting set of scenarios span a wide range of potential climate changes and allows examination of the relative importance of global-mean temperature change, regional climate patterns, aerosol cooling, and CO2 fertilization effects. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract As carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gasses accumulate in the atmosphere and contribute to rising global temperatures, it is important to examine how a changing climate may affect natural and managed ecosystems. In this series of papers, we study the impacts of climate change on agriculture, water resources and natural ecosystems in the General Circulation Model (GCM)-derived climate change projections, described in Part 1, to drive the crop production and water resource models EPIC (Erosion Productivity Impact Calculator) and HUMUS (Hydrologic Unit Model of the United States). These models are described and validated in this paper using historical crop yields and streamflow data in the conterminous United States in order to establish their ability to accurately simulate historical crop and water conditions and their capability to simulate crop and water response to the extreme climate conditions predicted by GCMs. EPIC simulated grain and forage crop yields are compared with historical crop yields from the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) and with yields from agricultural experiments. EPIC crop yields correspond more closely with USDA historical county yields than with the higher yields from intensively managed agricultural experiments. The HUMUS model was validated by comparing the simulated water yield from each hydrologic basin with estimates of natural streamflow made by the US Geological Survey. This comparison shows that the model is able to reproduce significant observed relationships and capture major trends in water resources timing and distribution across the country. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper discusses relationships between soil conservation, carbon sequestration, and the Kyoto Protocol. The Kyoto Protocol is the first attempt to use the flexibility of the global market place to stabilize and reduce GHG emissions, mitigate climate change, and promote sustainable development. The protocol emerged first as a framework agreement, but through international negotiations it is progressing into sets of legal articles. These impose obligations on all signatories, but they also identify opportunities for improved environmental land management at local, national and international levels. This is particularly true for soil conservation, where the sequestration of carbon above and below ground increases soil organic matter, enhances soil fertility, and improves production, while concomitantly reducing atmospheric CO2. It is a classic `win-win' situation. Both the evolving opportunities and the obligations under the Kyoto Protocol are discussed in the paper. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the first Kyoto commitment period Russia could be the major supplier for the greenhouse gases (GHG) emissions market. Potential Russian supply depends on the ability of Russia to keep GHG emissions lower than the Kyoto target. In the literature there is no common understanding of the total trading potential of Russia at the international carbon market. In this paper we focus on CO2 emission, which constituted nearly 80% of Russian GHG emission. We compare different projections of Russian CO2 emission and analyze the most important factors, which predetermine the CO2 emission growth. In a transition economy these factors are: Gross Domestic Product (GDP) dynamic, changes of GDP structure, innovation activity, transformation of export-import flows and response to the market signals. The input-output macroeconomic model with the two different input-output tables representing old and new production technologies has been applied for the analysis to simulate technological innovations and structural changes in the Russian economy during transition period. The Russian supply at the international GHG market without forest sector may be up to 3 billion metric ton of CO2 equivalent. Earlier actions to reduce CO2 emission are critical to insure the Russian supply at the international carbon market. With regard to the current status of the Russian capital market, the forward trading with OECD countries is only the possibility to raise initial investments to roll no-regret and low-cost GHG reduction. This paper discusses uncertainties of Russian CO2 emission dynamics and analyzes the different incentives to lower the emission pathway. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper proposes the creation of a club of carbon markets (CCM), to promote deep reductions in greenhouse gas emissions by supporting the development, harmonization, and increased ambition of domestic carbon markets. To achieve its aims, the club would establish common or reciprocal standards for environmental market infrastructure, transparency and environmental integrity; offer mutual recognition of members' emissions units; allow participating jurisdictions to share experience and gain assistance in building institutional capacity; and promote domestic and cross-border investment in low-carbon development. Using a suite of incentives, including some from the trade arena, a club of carbon markets could serve as a powerful attractive nucleus for broadening the participation of jurisdictions in climate mitigation, much as the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) served as the nucleus for broadening trade in products and services. A carbon markets club could be launched under UNFCCC auspices, but a more promising avenue might be to pursue the creation of the CCM as a complement to but outside the UN talks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Using an experimental auction, we explore how verifiable information affects the willingness to pay (WTP) for two climate friendly goods given the politicized climate change debate. We test whether the dissemination of (scientific) verifiable information lets subjects cut through the media noise. We define our baseline by first examining how noisy information (pro and con) about climate change affects WTP. We then consider how third party verifiable information within this noisy information affects WTP. Our results suggest subjects could cut through noisy information to process verifiable information. We find a significant WTP premium for climate protection. The verifiable information treatment increases the premium for both shade-grown coffee (by 51 %) and recycled paper (by 48 %). This suggests the WTP premium for climate change depends on the available information flow and the characteristics of the climate friendly good. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change can be difficult for laypeople to make sense of, because of its complexity, the uncertainties involved and its distant impacts. Research has identified the potentials of Information and Communication Technologies (ICT) for visualizing and communicating climate change to lay audiences and thus addressing these communication challenges. However, little research has focused on how ICT-based visualization affects audiences' understandings of climate change. Employing a semiotic framework and through a combination of focus group interviews and mindmap exercises, we investigated how Swedish students make sense of climate messages presented through an ICT-based visualisation medium; a dome theatre movie. The paper concludes that visualization in immersive environments works well to concretize aspects of climate change and provide a starting point for reflection, but we argue that the potential to add interactive elements should be further explored, as interaction has the potential to influence meaning-making processes. In addition, audiences' preconceptions of climate change influence their interpretations of climate messages, which may function as a constraint to climate communication. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Adaptation and mitigation are complementary strategies for addressing the impacts of climate change, yet are often considered separately. This paper examines the literature for evidence of the interactions of adaptation and mitigation measures across the agriculture, biodiversity, coasts, forests, urban and water sectors, focusing on Europe. It found that often adaptation and mitigation synergies and conflicts were not explicitly mentioned within a sector, let alone between sectors. Most measures, however, were found to have an effect on another sector, resulting in neutral, positive (synergies) or negative (conflicts) interactions within and between sectors. Many positive cross-sectoral interactions involved biodiversity or water and thus these could represent good starting places for the implementation of integrated, cross-sectoral strategies. Previous studies suggest that adaptation and mitigation are undertaken on different time and geographical scales; this study found many local scale measures which could facilitate integration between both adaptation and mitigation. It is important that cross-sectoral interaction of adaptation and mitigation measures are explicitly recognised if they are to be mainstreamed into policy, so that positive outcomes are enhanced and unintended consequences avoided. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Cap-and-trade, a regulatory instrument widely used to constrain greenhouse gas and other pollution, has recently been criticized for producing only small amounts of intended emission reductions. This paper looks at the empirical record of cap-and-trade since the beginning in 1995, and shows that emission targets have almost always been easier and cheaper to reach than expected. The five main reasons are generous targets, changes in economic output, fuel price movements, innovation, and complementary emission reduction policies. Overall, this failure to predict mitigation potentials may relate to a psychological 'end of history bias,' whereby policymakers, industry, and analysts think that less change will happen in the future than has demonstrably happened in the past. Consequently, more abatement is possible and at lower costs than generally thought, rendering the prices of emission permits hard to predict. For climate research, the findings imply that emission scenarios assuming ever-increasing pollution prices may benefit from integrating recent experience with cap-and-trade regulations. In policy terms, mechanisms such as floor prices need to be considered to guarantee emission reductions under uncertainty. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We analyze a mini ensemble of regional climate projections over the CORDEX Africa domain carried out with RegCM4 model as part of the Phase I CREMA experiment (Giorgi ). RegCM4 is driven by the HadGEM2-ES and MPI-ESM global models for the RCP8.5 and RCP4.5 greenhouse gas and aerosol concentration scenarios. The focus of the analysis is on seasonal and intraseasonal monsoon characteristics. We find two prominent change signals. Over West Africa and the Sahel MPI produces a forward shift in the monsoon season in line with previous findings, and this shift is also simulated by the RegCM4. Furthermore, the regional model produces a widespread decrease of monsoon precipitation (when driven by both MPI and HadGEM) associated with decreased easterly wave activity in the 6-9 days regime and with soil moisture-precipitation interactions. South of the equator we find an extension of the dry season with delayed onset and anticipated recession of the monsoon and a narrowing and strengthening of the ITCZ precipitation band. This signal is consistent in all global and regional model projections, although with different spatial detail. We plan to enlarge this mini-ensemble as a further contribution to the CORDEX project to better assess the robustness of the signals found in this paper. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper analyses factors that contributed to the evolution of SO, NO and CO emissions in Europe from 1960 to 2010. Historical energy balances, along with population and economic growth data, are used to quantify the impacts of major determinants of changing emission levels, including energy intensity, conversion efficiency, fuel mix, and pollution control. Time series of emission levels are compared for countries in Western and Eastern Europe, throwing light on differences in the importance of particular emission-driving forces. Three quarters of the decline in SO emissions in Western Europe resulted from a combination of reduced energy intensity and improved fuel mix, while dedicated end-of-pipe abatement measures played a dominant role in the reduction of NO emissions. The increase in atmospheric emissions in Eastern Europe through the mid-1990s was associated with the growth of energy-intensive industries, which off-setted the positive impact of better fuel quality and changes in fuel mix. A continuous decrease in energy intensity and higher conversion efficiencies have been the main factors responsible for the moderate rate of growth of European CO emissions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Snowfall changes in mountain areas in response to anthropogenic forcing could have widespread hydrological, ecological and economic impacts. In this paper, the robustness of snowfall changes over the French Alps projected during the 21st century and the associated uncertainties are studied. In particular, the role of temperature changes on snowfall changes is investigated. Those issues are tackled through the analysis of the results of a very large ensemble of high-resolution regional climate projections, obtained either through dynamical or statistical downscaling. We find that, at the beginning and at the end of the cold season extending from November to March (included), temperature change is an important source of spread in snowfall changes. However, no link is found between temperature and snowfall changes in January and February. At the beginning and at the end of the cold season, the rate of change in snowfall per Kelvin does not depend much on the bias correction step, the period or the greenhouse gas scenario but mostly on the downscaling method and the climate models, the latter uncertainty source being dominant. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The purpose of this paper is to describe global urban greenhouse gas emissions by region and sector, examine the distribution of emissions through the urban-to-rural gradient, and identify covariates of emission levels for our baseline year, 2000. We use multiple existing spatial databases to identify urban extent, greenhouse gas emissions (CO 2, N 2O, CH 4 and SF 6) and covariates of emissions in a “top-down” analysis. The results indicate that urban activities are significant sources of total greenhouse gas emissions (36.8 and 48.6 % of total). The urban energy sector accounts for between 41.5 and 66.3 % of total energy emissions. Significant differences exist in the urban share of greenhouse gas emissions between developed and developing countries as well as among source sectors for geographic regions. The 50 largest urban emitting areas account for 38.8 % of all urban greenhouse gas emissions. We find that greenhouse gas emissions are significantly associated with population size, density, growth rates, and per capita income. Finally, comparison of our results to “bottom-up” estimates suggest that this research’s data and techniques are best used at the regional and global scales. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A favoured method of assimilating information from state-of-the-art climate models into integrated assessment models of climate impacts is to use the transient climate response (TCR) of the climate models as an input, sometimes accompanied by a pattern matching approach to provide spatial information. More recent approaches to the problem use TCR with another independent piece of climate model output: the land-sea surface warming ratio ( φ). In this paper we show why the use of φ in addition to TCR has such utility. Multiple linear regressions of surface temperature change onto TCR and φ in 22 climate models from the CMIP3 multi-model database show that the inclusion of φ explains a much greater fraction of the inter-model variance than using TCR alone. The improvement is particularly pronounced in North America and Eurasia in the boreal summer season, and in the Amazon all year round. The use of φ as the second metric is beneficial for three reasons: firstly it is uncorrelated with TCR in state-of-the-art climate models and can therefore be considered as an independent metric; secondly, because of its projected time-invariance, the magnitude of φ is better constrained than TCR in the immediate future; thirdly, the use of two variables is much simpler than approaches such as pattern scaling from climate models. Finally we show how using the latest estimates of φ from climate models with a mean value of 1.6-as opposed to previously reported values of 1.4-can significantly increase the mean time-integrated discounted damage projections in a state-of-the-art integrated assessment model by about 15 %. When compared to damages calculated without the inclusion of the land-sea warming ratio, this figure rises to 65 %, equivalent to almost 200 trillion dollars over 200 years. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In order to properly assess the climate impact of temporary carbon sequestration and storage projects through land-use, land-use change and forestry (LULUCF), it is important to consider their temporal aspect. Dynamic life cycle assessment (dynamic LCA) was developed to account for time while assessing the potential impact of life cycle greenhouse gases (GHG) emissions. In this paper, the dynamic LCA approach is applied to a temporary carbon sequestration project through afforestation, and the results are compared with those of the two principal ton-year approaches: the Moura-Costa and the Lashof methods. The dynamic LCA covers different scenarios, which are distinguished by the assumptions regarding what happens at the end of the sequestration period. In order to ascertain the degree of compensation of an emission through a LULUCF project, the ratio of the cumulative impact of the project to the cumulative impact of a baseline GHG emission is calculated over time. This ratio tends to 1 when assuming that, after the end of the sequestration project period, the forest is maintained indefinitely. Conversely, the ratio tends to much lower values in scenarios where part of the carbon is released back to the atmosphere due to e.g. fire or forest exploitation. The comparison of dynamic LCA with the ton-year approaches shows that it is a more flexible approach as it allows the consideration of every life cycle stage of the project and it gives decision makers the opportunity to test the sensitivity of the results to the choice of different time horizons. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

One of the major concerns regarding climate change in high latitudes is the potential feedback from greenhouse gases (GHG) being released from thawing peat soils. In this paper we show how vegetational patterns and associated GHG fluxes in subarctic palsa (peat mounds with a permanently frozen core) mires can be linked to climate, based on field observations from fifteen palsa sites distributed in northern Fennoscandia. Fine resolution (100 m) land cover data are combined with projections of future climate for the 21st century in order to model the potential future distribution of palsa vegetation in northern Fennoscandia. Site scale climate-vegetational relationships for two vegetation types are described by a climate suitability index computed from the field observations. Our results indicate drastic changes in the palsa vegetational patterns over the coming decades with a 97 % reduction in dry hummock areas by 2041-2060 compared to the 1961-1990 areal coverage. The impact of these changes on the carbon balance is a decrease in the efflux of CO from 130 kilotonnes C y to a net uptake of 11 kilotonnes C y and a threefold increase in the efflux of CH from 6 to 18 kilotonnes C y over the same period and over the 5,520 km area of palsa mires. The combined effect is equivalent to a slight decrease in CO-C emissions, from 182 to 152 kilotonnes C y. Main uncertainties involve the ability of the vegetation community to adapt to new conditions, and long-term changes in hydrology due to absence of ice and frost heaving. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper offers insights for assessing organizational resilience to the effects of climate change, specifically to climate and weather extremes. The assessment of organizational resilience to climate and weather extremes brings about several challenges due to (1) uncertainties about future climate change outcomes across temporal and spatial scales and (2) a lack of insight into what lead to organizational resilience, or which variables should be measured in a given study. We suggest methodological pathways for organizational managers to identify properties of future climate and weather extremes and to include them in resilience assessments. We also suggest approaches to identify factors that promote organizational resilience to selected climate and weather extremes. Findings are intended to help managers to understand how organizational resilience to climate and weather extremes can be enhanced. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Legislation to decarbonise energy systems within overall greenhouse gas reduction targets represents an immense and unprecedented energy policy challenge. However there is a dichotomy between this level of policy ambition and prior modelling studies that find such targets economically, technologically and socially feasible under idealised - first-best policies. This paper makes a significant contribution to current analytical efforts to account for realistic - second-best climate mitigation policy implementation. This is achieved via a technical classification of secondbest common mode issues at a detailed national level: both internal (behavioural change, infrastructure implementation) and external (new technologies, resource availability). Under a combinatory second-best scenario, meeting targets greater than a 70% reduction in CO by 2050 entail costs above a subjective barrier of 1% of GDP, while extreme mitigation scenarios (>90% CO reduction) are infeasible. These high costs are equally due to disappointing progress in behavioural and technological mitigation efforts. Expensive second-best mitigation scenarios can still rely on extreme assumptions including the full deployment of the UK's offshore wind resource or the complete diffusion of energy efficiency measures in end-use sectors. By demonstrating the fragilities of a low carbon energy system pathway, policy makers can explore protective and proactive strategies to ensure targets can actually be met. Additionally, systematic analysis of failure in stringent long term decarbonisation scenarios teaches energy analysts about the trade-offs in model efficacy vs. confidence. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In April 2011, we published the first comprehensive analysis of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from shale gas obtained by hydraulic fracturing, with a focus on methane emissions. Our analysis was challenged by Cathles et al. (). Here, we respond to those criticisms. We stand by our approach and findings. The latest EPA estimate for methane emissions from shale gas falls within the range of our estimates but not those of Cathles et al. which are substantially lower. Cathles et al. believe the focus should be just on electricity generation, and the global warming potential of methane should be considered only on a 100-year time scale. Our analysis covered both electricity (30% of US usage) and heat generation (the largest usage), and we evaluated both 20- and 100-year integrated time frames for methane. Both time frames are important, but the decadal scale is critical, given the urgent need to avoid climate-system tipping points. Using all available information and the latest climate science, we conclude that for most uses, the GHG footprint of shale gas is greater than that of other fossil fuels on time scales of up to 100 years. When used to generate electricity, the shale-gas footprint is still significantly greater than that of coal at decadal time scales but is less at the century scale. We reiterate our conclusion from our April 2011 paper that shale gas is not a suitable bridge fuel for the 21st Century. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Exploiting surface albedo change has been proposed as a form of geoengineering to reduce the heating effect of anthropogenic increases in greenhouse gases (GHGs). Recent modeling experiments have projected significant negative radiative forcing from large-scale implementation of albedo reduction technologies ('cool' roofs and pavements). This paper complements such model studies with measurement-based calculations of the direct radiation balance impacts of replacement of conventional roofing with 'cool' roof materials in California. This analysis uses, as a case study, the required changes to commercial buildings embodied in California's building energy efficiency regulations, representing a total of 4300 ha of roof area distributed over 16 climate zones. The estimated statewide mean radiative forcing per 0.01 increase in albedo (here labeled RF01) is −1.38 W/m. The resulting unit-roof-area mean annual radiative forcing impact of this regulation is −44.2 W/m. This forcing is computed to counteract the positive radiative forcing of ambient atmospheric CO at a rate of about 41 kg for each square meter of roof. Aggregated over the 4300 ha of cool roof estimated built in the first decade after adoption of the State regulation, this is comparable to removing about 1.76 million metric tons (MMT) of CO from the atmosphere. The point radiation data used in this study also provide perspective on the spatial variability of cool roof radiative forcing in California, with individual climate zone effectiveness ranging from −37 to −59 W/m of roof. These 'bottom-up' calculations validate the estimates reported for published 'top down' modeling, highlight the large spatial diversity of the effects of albedo change within even a limited geographical area, and offer a potential methodology for regulatory agencies to account for the climate effects of 'cool' roofing in addition to its well-known energy efficiency benefits. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Wyoming provides more fossil fuels to the remainder of the United States than any other state or country, and its citizens remain skeptical of anthropogenic influences on their climate. However, much of the state including Yellowstone National Park and the headwaters of several major river systems, may have already been affected by rising temperatures. This paper examines the historic climate record from Wyoming in the context of ∼14,000-year temperature reconstructions based on fossil pollen data. The analysis shows that 24 of 30 U.S. Historical Climatology Network records from the state show an increase in the frequency of unusually warm years since 1978. Statewide temperatures have included 15 years (50%) from 1978 to 2007 that were greater than 1σ above the mean annual temperature for 1895-1978. The frequent warm years coincide with a reduction in the frequency of extremely low (<−20°C) January temperatures, and are not well explained by factors such as solar irradiance and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. Linear regressions require inclusion of atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations to explain the multi-decadal temperature trends. The observed warming is large in Yellowstone National Park where 21 years (70%) from 1978 to 2007 were greater than 1σ above the 1895-1978 mean; the deviation from the mean (>1°C) is greater than any time in the past 6,000 years. Recent temperatures have become as high as those experienced from 11,000 to 6,000 years ago when summer insolation was >6% higher than today and when regional ecosystems experienced frequent severe disturbances. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper describes research to estimate the effects of climate change on two high-elevation hydropower systems in California: the Upper American River Project, operated by the Sacramento Municipal Utility District, and the Big Creek system, operated by Southern California Edison. The study builds on a previous model of the Upper American River Project, which is here modified and extended for use to simulate two hydropower systems under various conditions. Future operations of the two high-elevation systems are simulated using climate change scenarios provided for the Second California Assessment. These scenarios suggest reduced precipitation and reduced runoff for both systems, and a shift toward runoff earlier in the year. The change in the hydrograph is somewhat greater for the Upper American River Project system, because its basins lie at a lower elevation. Reduced runoff directly reduces energy generation and revenues from both systems. Because the Upper American River Project system is projected to have greater spills with warmer climate conditions, it also has greater reduction in energy generation and revenues. Both systems continue to meet peak historical power demands in summer under most climate projections. However, if the number of heat waves increases in the late summer (September), reservoir operating strategies may need to be modified. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper summarizes the development process and main characteristics of the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), a set of four new pathways developed for the climate modeling community as a basis for long-term and near-term modeling experiments. The four RCPs together span the range of year 2100 radiative forcing values found in the open literature, i.e. from 2.6 to 8.5 W/m. The RCPs are the product of an innovative collaboration between integrated assessment modelers, climate modelers, terrestrial ecosystem modelers and emission inventory experts. The resulting product forms a comprehensive data set with high spatial and sectoral resolutions for the period extending to 2100. Land use and emissions of air pollutants and greenhouse gases are reported mostly at a 0.5 × 0.5 degree spatial resolution, with air pollutants also provided per sector (for well-mixed gases, a coarser resolution is used). The underlying integrated assessment model outputs for land use, atmospheric emissions and concentration data were harmonized across models and scenarios to ensure consistency with historical observations while preserving individual scenario trends. For most variables, the RCPs cover a wide range of the existing literature. The RCPs are supplemented with extensions (Extended Concentration Pathways, ECPs), which allow climate modeling experiments through the year 2300. The RCPs are an important development in climate research and provide a potential foundation for further research and assessment, including emissions mitigation and impact analysis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Developing economy greenhouse gas emissions are growing rapidly relative to developed economy emissions (Boden et al. ) and developing economies as a group have greater emissions than developed economies. These developments are expected to continue (U.S. Energy Information Administration ), which has led some to question the effectiveness of emissions mitigation in developed economies without a commitment to extensive mitigation action from developing economies. One often heard argument against proposed U.S. legislation to limit carbon emissions to mitigate climate change is that, without participation from large developing economies like China and India, stabilizing temperature at 2 degrees Celsius above preindustrial (United Nations ), or even reducing global emissions levels, would be impossible (Driessen ; RPC Energy Facts ) or prohibitively expensive (Clarke et al. ). Here we show that significantly delayed action by rapidly developing countries is not a reason to forgo mitigation efforts in developed economies. This letter examines the effect of a scenario with no explicit international climate policy and two policy scenarios, full global action and a developing economy delay, on the probability of exceeding various global average temperature changes by 2100. This letter demonstrates that even when developing economies delay any mitigation efforts until 2050 the effect of action by developed economies will appreciably reduce the probability of more extreme levels of temperature change. This paper concludes that early carbon mitigation efforts by developed economies will considerably affect the distribution over future climate change, whether or not developing countries begin mitigation efforts in the near term. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

wide variety of scenarios for future development have played significant roles in climate policy discussions. This paper presents projections of greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations, sea level rise due to thermal expansion and glacial melt, oceanic acidity, and global mean temperature increases computed with the MIT Integrated Global Systems Model (IGSM) using scenarios for twenty-first century emissions developed by three different groups: intergovernmental (represented by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change), government (represented by the U.S. government Climate Change Science Program) and industry (represented by Royal Dutch Shell plc). In all these scenarios the climate system undergoes substantial changes. By 2100, the CO concentration ranges from 470 to 1020 ppm compared to a 2000 level of 365 ppm, the CO-equivalent concentration of all greenhouse gases ranges from 550 to 1780 ppm in comparison to a 2000 level of 415 ppm, oceanic acidity changes from a current pH of around 8 to a range from 7.63 to 7.91, in comparison to a pH change from a preindustrial level by 0.1 unit. The global mean temperature increases by 1.8 to 7.0°C relative to 2000. Such increases will require considerable adaptation of many human systems and will leave some aspects of the earth's environment irreversibly changed. Thus, the remarkable aspect of these different approaches to scenario development is not the differences in detail and philosophy but rather the similar picture they paint of a world at risk from climate change even if there is substantial effort to reduce emissions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper we consider the buying/selling prices of carbon dioxide (CO) emission permits in trading models with uncertainty. Permission prices, although usually omitted from standard models, may significantly influence the trading market. We thus undertook to construct a more realistic trade model and to compare it with the standard one. To do this, we introduced several important changes to the standard model, namely, (1) a new optimized quality function; and (2) transactions with price negotiations between regions. We also enhanced the model using methods described in the literature to allow it to deal with reported emissions uncertainty. Additionally, we used an original method of simulating this kind of market based on a specialized evolutionary algorithm (EA). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

pproximately half of human-induced carbon dioxide (CO) emissions are taken up by the land and ocean, and the rest stays in the atmosphere, increasing the global concentration and acting as a major greenhouse-gas (GHG) climate-forcing element. Although GHG mitigation is now in the political arena, the exact spatial distribution of the land sink is not well known. In this paper, an estimation of mean European net ecosystem exchange (NEE) carbon fluxes for the period 1998-2001 is performed with three mesoscale and two global transport models, based on the integration of atmospheric CO measurements into the same Bayesian synthesis inverse approach. A special focus is given to sub-continental regions of Europe making use of newly available CO concentration measurements in this region. Inverse flux estimates from the five transport models are compared with independent flux estimates from four ecosystem models. All inversions detect a strong annual carbon sink in the southwestern part of Europe and a source in the northeastern part. Such a dipole, although robust with respect to the network of stations used, remains uncertain and still to be confirmed with independent estimates. Comparison of the seasonal variations of the inversion-based net land biosphere fluxes (NEP) with the NEP predicted by the ecosystem models indicates a shift of the maximum uptake period, from June in the ecosystem models to July in the inversions. This study thus improves on the understanding of the carbon cycle at sub-continental scales over Europe, demonstrating that the methodology for understanding regional carbon cycle is advancing, which increases its relevance in terms of issues related to regional mitigation policies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The idea of market-based carbon emission trading and carbon taxes is gaining in popularity as a global climate change policy instrument. However, these mechanisms might not necessarily have a positive outcome unless their value reflects socioeconomic and environmental impacts and regulations. Moreover, the fact that they have various inherent exogenous and endogenous uncertainties raises serious concerns about their ability to reduce emissions in a cost-effective way. This paper aims to introduce a simple stochastic model that allows the robustness of economic mechanisms for emission reduction under multiple natural and human-related uncertainties to be analyzed. Unlike standard equilibrium state analysis, the model shows that the explicit introduction of uncertainties regarding emissions, abatement costs, and equilibrium states makes it almost impossible for existing market-based trading and carbon taxes to be environmentally safe and cost-effective. Here we propose a computerized multi-agent trading model. This can be viewed as a prototype to simulate an emission trading market that is regulated in a decentralized way. We argue that a market of this type is better equipped to deal with long-term emission reductions, their direct regulation, irreversibility, and 'lock-in' equilibria. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper we apply a linear regression with spatial random effect to model geographically distributed emission inventory data. The study presented is on NO emission assessments for municipalities of southern Norway and on activities related to emissions (proxy data). Taking advantage of the spatial dimension of the emission process, the method proposed is intended to improve inventory extension beyond its earlier coverage. For this, the proxy data are used. The conditional autoregressive model is used to account for spatial correlation between municipalities. Parameter estimation is based on the maximum likelihood method and the optimal predictor is developed. The results indicate that inclusion of a spatial dependence component lead to improvement in both representation of the observed data set and prediction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the subject of hydrologic variability and its changes in two separate integrations of a coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model developed at the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory/NOAA assuming a 1% per year increase to a doubling and quadrupling of CO, respectively. Changes in time mean state and variability of precipitation, runoff and soil moisture are evaluated using monthly and seasonal mean data derived from these integrations. Various statistical tests are then performed on the resulting time mean and variability changes. The patterns of hydrologic change for these three quantities are similar to those obtained from previous studies. In northern middle to higher latitudes for the time means, the changes include increases in monthly mean precipitation, increases in monthly mean runoff during the fall, winter and spring seasons and decreases of monthly mean soil moisture during summer. Many of these changes are found to be statistically significant at the 5% significance level for both the time mean and variability especially for the results where CO is quadrupled such as monthly mean precipitation. Significant changes also include increases of runoff variability during spring, winter and spring and increases of soil moisture variability during the summer season. These results support statements made in previous IPCC reports that increasing greenhouse gases can lead to more severe and frequent floods and droughts depending upon season and latitude. This study also indicates that the approaches to equilibrium of these two integrations, and the resulting hydrologic changes, take place over time scales of hundreds of years in agreement with several previous investigations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]